What is the highest win% you have seen a trading system, automated or manual, have?
What is the highest win% you have seen a DAY TRADING trading system, automated or manual, have?
I've seen claims of 70-80% profitable but Never seen this replicated during live market conditions.
I understand the difference between win% and overall profitability so please don't steer the conversation that way..
Last edited by ElectricWiz; May 5th, 2012 at 03:02 AM.
Reason: clearify question
Yes I suppose that could be true, I was referring to a day trading system, I didn't make that clear. I suppose what a "day trading system" is could be debated too. Lets just say any system that does NOT hold positions overnight.
ElectricWiz - How about 91% wins during 2.6 years of trading. System #1
How about 99% wins during 8 months of trading. System #2
How about 99% wins during 2.5 years of trading. Systems #3
At the risk of steering the conversation , I like this question because it underlines the difficulties in trying to understand what are typical statistics and what differentiates a good system. Given that most people with something to sell, exaggerate (or lie) and those that are honest cannot be distinguished, how do we learn what is a good % win, what is a reasonable % drawdown, what is a typical % adverse excursion, etc, etc.
To help answer these questions, I suggest exploring the systems that are being traded on the Collective2 site. These are real systems in live trading with verifiable prices and times for every trade. All of the trading statistics are provided and are searchable and sortable. If you don't like the way the calculations are done, you can download all the trade data and do your own calculations. I am NOT promoting subscriptions to the Collective2 systems. I am not judging whether their systems are good or bad. But I am suggesting this site as a source of credible statistics from real trading systems.
Disclaimer - I have no beneficial association with the Collective2 site except for a few subscriptions to their systems.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Lampert for this post:
You are right about the %profitable on these systems, however the average trade length on all these systems are between 10-15 hours. I would not consider these systems day-trading systems. System 3 has an average win of $1593 and average loss of $20,523. But this is what you might expect for such a high win %%.
This is similar to blackout23 comment that you could trade with 100% accuracy for months if you didn't have a stop-loss and added on to all your negative trades until you(hopefully) were able to get out at break-even. Eventually you would get stuck on the wrong side and blow up your account.
That said I don't think averaging into trades is a bad thing if done with care. But I guess I am looking for something more realistic and something that is more of a DAY TRADING system that doesn't hold trades for 10-15 hours at a time.
Thanks for the post Lampert, interesting stuff
The following 2 users say Thank You to ElectricWiz for this post:
On this page, and others within this Web site, you are going to read about trading systems and their performance. These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
For further technical information about how hypothetical prices are determined on this site, see this page.
Substantial risk of loss
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read, understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker before you consider trading.
Online trading is risky. The risk of loss in online trading of stocks, options, and foreign equities is substantial.
Do you understand that this warning applies to every page of this site?
We show this warning, and block your view of a trading system's hypothetical results screen, at least once each "session" that you come to this Web site. (Specifically, we show this warning the first time you view a system page and then every 60 minutes thereafter.)
Also, this same warning is displayed at the bottom of almost every page in this Web site. So you can always scroll to the bottom of the page to see the warning again. Therefore, we will not block your view of data during each page load, or we would make this site unusable. Before you can continue, you must acknowledge that: 1) you have read this warning, and 2) you accept that - while this pop-up warning will not block your view during every page load - the warning here nevertheless applies to every page on this Web site.
By closing this window, you acknowledge that you have read and understand this warning.
If you anyone is in the mood for an interesting documentary The Black-Scholes Formula. Is an interesting one.shows
I don't want to spoil the end but it shows how theoretical models can backfire on their creators as black swans and outliers appear and can "blow-up" systems that are seemingly full-proof.
most systms with alittle bit of effort can be and should be in the 50-60 percent range , money management and discipline will make it a more profitable or a losing system , trading setups is easy , entry is usually easy , its the exits and the profit targets that are hard to achieve
The following user says Thank You to bizman70 for this post: