I don't trade YM, but here's what I see. You shorted into established MA support, as shown on your chart - not sure which MA that is, but it seems to be serving you well, showing price support. On a melt-up day like today, that's important, as is the ability to recognize the crazy rise that the big boys were casting upon the markets: before you short and step in front of a fast moving freight train, you want to see some sort of confirmation of a move down.
Looking at my chart (which is sort of my default template for new charts), one can see the stringent obeying that price did of resistance levels (especially R2 and then R3). Your chart MA is better than my lowest one (EMA 21, dashed yellow line), since the EMA 21 will not provide support to this type of fast moving market, which is rare momentum.
After that wide range 5m bar that took price to 13192, one needs to be suspect of what will come next; no move down in succesive bars is a hint at a melt-up day about to form or further continue; today was a quite fast moving one. The 10am EST news was much beyond expectations, so the big boys took advantage of it. With Europe closed and no precedent set, it makes it easier and more likely for price to explore higher. I have a peak value price indi that plots the close of the WRBs that have huge volume associated with them - you will find this at minimum is a decent price barrier. (13192 from that ~10am bar)
Uncannily great support is provided by the fibs of yesterday's PA (indi by Fat Tails) - I extended the lines to the left of the screen, showing 78.6%, yest-high (100%), 127.2% of yesterday's price range. Notice how price slices through and moves through each potential barrier with ease. Combined with the move north of R1, then R2, shorting is an iffy undertaking most of the time. Notice how after R2 and 161.8% of yesterday's price, it continues to move north. At that point, 200% becomes a natural magnet as does the next level of resistance, R3 in this case. At that point - after having sliced through 3 resistance levels and gone double yesterday's price movement, the average daily range is quite high (sorry I don't have it on here, but ES was 20.5 ADR) and potential shorts can be looked for, BUT too often, the big boys will leave the price here, and range things, as they distribute (or accumulate). If I have not ridden it up to that point, I am not in good psychological shape to look for shorts, on what usually end up being table scraps or stop-outs, and I am looking to other markets for moves that have not finished, or are not heavily correlated.
I also use some other techniques and tools, but since I don't trade YM, I won't go there.
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The following user says Thank You to Beljevina for this post:
Sure, indicators can be absolute command, that's how I trade, that's what a strict mechanical method is all about. But, you have to verify that these signals have proven themselves historically over a large sample of trades. But however you trade, you have to realize that no method is right 100% of the time. Sometimes the most picture perfect setups fail, and the most ugly ones win for no apparent reason. That's the nature of the markets, and you have to accept that. What counts is not how 1 of these signals perform, it is how 100 instances of these signals perform.
The following user says Thank You to monpere for this post:
With that yes. Sadly my main problem is that I have a decent career and work was eating me alive the last 18 months I only had a little side stuff going on. My main problem is that a "I earn 500 USD per day stable" scenario for means "Ouch, serious loss of income".
But the "snort EMA as final filter" has been a decent rule for a long time. Btw., here is the short in YM now finally realizing.