as long as the JPY is strong, any Stock Rally is in Danger?

April 28th, 2012, 11:33 PM

hello community

I am quite new here and this is my first post

I am questioning the recent Stock- and Future Rally due to the fact, that the JPY is still strong against most other Pairs

in my humble view:

as long the "smart money" stays in the JPY, any Rally in the Stockmarket is uncertain and even a kind of fake

hope to find other explanations from you here

cheers

April 29th, 2012, 12:32 AM

I thought the bottom would drop out two years ago, so I say it's real until it isn't.

April 29th, 2012, 04:41 AM

vegasfoster

I thought the bottom would drop out two years ago, so I say it's real until it isn't.

The market will rally as long as the majority of participants believe it will continue to rally and buy.

When they become convinced the rally is over and sell... the rally will end.

Fear and greed trump fundamentals.

April 29th, 2012, 05:27 AM

Buy the dip mentality is still here, very difficult to kill a bull market for sure. It will keep on going that way, retailers and fund managers buying the dip, but each time with a shorter bounce up until that stops working and we flash down.
It will take several months, until sep12 in my option...

This market resembles a lot the 1998 one, take a look back and see how each month back then could relate to this year.
We will have a lot of bounces along the way for sure, a valuable gift for us traders that crave on volatility :-)

The first rebound in 98 after the first correction made a double top, nearly taking out the highs of the year before the market went back down.
I suspect we will see a similar pattern this year too.

Note how this up leg is made on a fading volume, an indication for the "smart money" and "market makers" behaviors in my opinion.

April 29th, 2012, 05:56 AM

Fadi

Buy the dip mentality is still here, very difficult to kill a bull market for sure. It will keep on going that way, retailers and fund managers buying the dip, but each time with a shorter bounce up until that stops working and we flash down.
It will take several months, until sep12 in my option...

This market resembles a lot the 1998 one, take a look back and see how each month back then could relate to this year.
We will have a lot of bounces along the way for sure, a valuable gift for us traders that crave on volatility :-)

The first rebound in 98 after the first correction made a double top, nearly taking out the highs of the year before the market went back down.
I suspect we will see a similar pattern this year too.

Note how this up leg is made on a fading volume, an indication for the "smart money" and "market makers" behaviors in my opinion.

very well explained, thank you very much

as I learned recently: there will be always a "profit taking" one day or time

after "accumulation" must follow "distribution"

and as I mentioned already, the JPY pairs may leading the direction and maybe even the timing

April 29th, 2012, 07:06 AM

Fadi

Buy the dip mentality is still here, very difficult to kill a bull market for sure. It will keep on going that way, retailers and fund managers buying the dip, but each time with a shorter bounce up until that stops working and we flash down.
It will take several months, until sep12 in my option...

This market resembles a lot the 1998 one, take a look back and see how each month back then could relate to this year.
We will have a lot of bounces along the way for sure, a valuable gift for us traders that crave on volatility :-)

The first rebound in 98 after the first correction made a double top, nearly taking out the highs of the year before the market went back down.
I suspect we will see a similar pattern this year too.

Note how this up leg is made on a fading volume, an indication for the "smart money" and "market makers" behaviors in my opinion.

Depends on your perspective ....

May 6th, 2012, 02:14 PM

ThatManFromTexas
Thank you for your chart, this is definitely very interesting, and as one clearly sees, on the long run the markets can only go up

Can you post the chart of 1998, only the 12 months period from january to december?
I believe that would give a clearer idea of what I mean, the rally in january and february, the first dip, and then rally back to the high of the year before turning back down and so forth...

Cheers
Fadi

as long as the JPY is strong, any Stock Rally is in Danger?

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as long as the JPY is strong, any Stock Rally is in Danger?