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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Volume Profile


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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Volume Profile

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  #1 (permalink)
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Hi guys,

FuturesTrader71 (FT71) is back on Saturday, April 21st @ 2:00 PM Eastern US. I have asked FT71 to focus on his methodology (Volume Profile), and he will be doing a walk-through of a day and his "process".

The agenda:

- Trading on the hard right edge
- Planning out the day using Volume Profiling
- Stalking the areas to trade
- Executing and managing the trade according to plan
-- What do I look for?
-- What do I do once the trade is triggered?
-- When does a scratch make sense to me?
-- What is most important about execution?
- Common pitfalls of struggling traders

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Registrations are now open.

Please register early, and attend the webinar early to ensure you can get in. I will open the webinar room 30 minutes early at 1:30 PM Eastern. If you come late, you may not be able to get in - we have a 500 seat capacity.

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Very cool - thanks for the opportunity!

"A Jedi's strength flows from the force."
-Yoda
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Big Mike View Post
Registrations are now open.

Please register early, and attend the webinar early to ensure you can get in. I will open the webinar room 30 minutes early at 1:30 PM Eastern. If you come late, you may not be able to get in - we have a 500 seat capacity.

Mike

thx mike for the last reminder sent out before webinar which alerted me to attend.

hopefully you still have that same program that would send out alert email to remind those wishing to attend to get on the ball.

thx mike.

PROBLEM IS: i do have the setup in my trading chart but its application is very much lacking. wonder if ft71 would demonstrate the application side more this time around. much appreciate all the goodies.

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While I have plans during this time, I will watch it later in the evening, if available already...

Not sure if FT71 plans to mention it, but for us "profile newbies", it would be helpful to hear briefly why Volume Profile, as opposed to Market Profile.

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  #7 (permalink)
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TonyB View Post
While I have plans during this time, I will watch it later in the evening, if available already...

Not sure if FT71 plans to mention it, but for us "profile newbies", it would be helpful to hear briefly why Volume Profile, as opposed to Market Profile.

While I'll happily let FT71 state his specific reasons, here are a couple of the things he's mentioned before:
  1. volume is a truer example of market generated information. With traditional MP, a single 1-lot may have traded at a given price or 100k contracts and as long as it happened within the same 30-minute bracket it's going to get that one TPO letter.
  2. Besides market specific RTH times, synthetic time-frames (i.e. 5-min, 30-min, etc.) are less representative of dynamic markets.

FT71's market lens contains minimal mechanical/calculated elements. If you've seen any of his charts you may have noticed Value Areas aren't prominently displayed if present at all. His research has indicated VA's are only useful on very specific days, so he only uses them on those day types.

Again, I am confident he can provide a much more lucid response, but I wanted to share what I could in an effort to scratch the surface of your question.

For what it's worth, Steidlmayer shifted over to volume profiling several years ago and recently did a presentation on his current project.

Hope that helps

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omni72, I really appreciate the thoughtful reply. It's feedback such as this that makes this forum so worthwhile...

I actually saw your post late last night and watched that CME video you provided with Steidlmayer. Watched until 3 am. Wife wasn't so happy about that though...

Really looking forward to the webinar.

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omni72 View Post
For what it's worth, Steidlmayer shifted over to volume profiling several years ago and recently did a presentation on his current project.

Hope that helps

I just wanted to clarify that Volume Strips is very different to VP. In the presentation he clearly rejects the underlying principles of both MP and VP. His new approach is more related to emergence than the the old static approach.

The value of MP was never the profile, as it faultily assumes a Gaussian distribution, but rather some less apparent market characteristics.

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@Lornz, do you have a link for more information on the volume strips?

As I understood Steidlmayer's CME video, volume strips differ from VP in that they are exclusively intraday, and can be 'reset' by the trader when desired. So it seemed to me to be a subset of, or change in emphasis within VP, rather than something radically new. But the CME video is all I know of it.

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futuretrader View Post
@Lornz, do you have a link for more information on the volume strips?

As I understood Steidlmayer's CME video, volume strips differ from VP in that they are exclusively intraday, and can be 'reset' by the trader when desired. So it seemed to me to be a subset of, or change in emphasis within VP, rather than something radically new. But the CME video is all I know of it.

Volume and market profile has always been an available intraday option, but relies on a normalized distribution with a single supply area in the center. One of the key ideas within volume strips is the concave distribution with multiple supply areas at the extremes of intraday movements.

Hth

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My bad, will do. All I did initially was post a link.
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I have opened the webinar room.

We will start in a few minutes.

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FT71: "Visualizing the day is an important piece of the puzzle."

You can see how I personally work through this process in this thread:


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FT71: "I don't try to be right. I try to emphasize the probabilities. What is more likely to take place, in this area, right now that I designated to do business in, in my homework"

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Homework objective: Goal is create a plan for the day, to see the move before or as soon as it starts happening

Live trading objective: Goal for day is to simply execute the plan in the market. It is not time to do more research once the market is already open.

FT71: "Once the move has happened, it is too late - you are taking too much price risk by waiting for too much information".

Focus during homework is to find in context and to be able to anticipate a move away from an area where you want to do business.

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Create about 3-5 hypothesis for the day in homework to be prepared.

Context is king:
- Time Frame
- Relevance to method (scalper, daily, monthly?)

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FT71: "Most attention is being spent on the tip of the iceberg (what you can see above water). That is not the most important part. What's important is the foundation (unseen under water)."

Keep analysis relevant to your time frame.

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Typical plan for the day. Brief example -- more details are in Webinar 4.1 on FT71's website. (Below is my assessment of what he describes)
  • Start by looking at trading calendar (news events etc)
  • Next look at Big Picture: FT71 uses a 405 minute day session only chart (1 bar = 1 RTH session)
  • Review the composite profile chart
  • Read the "story" the market is telling
  • When market is in balance: create a micro composite to show what prices were doing during the ranging/balance span of days - until the market breaks out of that range (no longer in balance)
  • (Why composite profiles? Want to see inside the bar, not just OHLC - at what prices did most of the trading take place?)
  • Determine "where did the market like prices, and where did it not?"

(Think from auction perspective: if iPhone were sold tomorrow at $50, how long will prices remain at $50? What is the fair price of an iPhone? (~$200). What happens if AT&T offered for $50, would you buy it? (Yes) What if the inventory @ $50 is limited, how much volume would happen (very limited - supply will be gone very quickly). That becomes an unfair price to the seller, so the seller will raise prices quickly. Prices will continue going up until the new price becomes unfair, and there are no new buyers.)

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The market advertises higher and higher prices until there are enough sellers motivated to sell. Then it turns and tests the other end (lower and lower) until there are enough buyers motivated to buy.

Markets are cyclical.

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"What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing getting there?"

Then when it is time to execute: "What is more likely to happen from here?"

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Pay attention to Value Areas on days where the market is in balance.

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Statistically the day session tests or breaks the overnight high or low 96% of the time.

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FT71: "I will never do homework that says anything like 'it should', 'it will'"

Instead always be nimble, you cannot predict, you can only visualize possible scenarios.

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Key objective - get to the first scale (target) to mitigate risk and so you can add them so can recalculate theoretical average (pushing it further to your advantage).

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Market internals: S&P ^TICK

His analysis shows 95% of time ranges between +250 and -270

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Common pitfalls:
  • Not understanding risk. Do you really understand risk? Do you really understand your leverage?
  • Not having a clean and vetted plan. You cannot 'wing it'. Have a checklist/plan. Incorporate your homework. You need a plan so you can ultimately monitor what you are doing, which is necessary to know what is wrong with your trading.
  • Tampering with or over thinking the trade. You have a planned trade, yet when you execute it you don't follow the plan.
  • Not obeying risk. Even if they've defined risk ahead of time (x amount per trade, x amount per day, only try same setup x times before stopping, etc) they don't follow it.
  • Changing methods too frequently. This week - trendlines, week before that - volume profile, week before that delta, etc etc. Constantly adding or changing to your chart.
  • Following others. Don't follow others. You have to trade your own plan. Do your own homework. It is impossible to take someone else's trade correctly.
  • Not recognizing their success and failure is linked to their psychology and discipline, not to some technical failure or knowledge. The most books, sales, market, indicators, vendors -- they focus on technical, but it is so much less significant than psychology and discipline.

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I want to thank @FuturesTrader71 for an absolutely stunning webinar. Incredible detail in his process/methodology, and so much other invaluable information -- this is a must watch in his continuing series of webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT)

I will post the recording of the webinar tomorrow.

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His brokerage, for all those asking questions:

Welcome to VanKar Trading Corporation | Futures, Commodities and System Trading Specialists

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thx mike, excellent sum


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Typical plan for the day. Brief example -- more details are in Webinar 4.1 on FT71's website. (Below is my assessment of what he describes)
  • Start by looking at trading calendar (news events etc)
  • Next look at Big Picture: FT71 uses a 405 minute day session only chart (1 bar = 1 RTH session)
  • Review the composite profile chart
  • Read the "story" the market is telling
  • When market is in balance: create a micro composite to show what prices were doing during the ranging/balance span of days - until the market breaks out of that range (no longer in balance)
  • (Why composite profiles? Want to see inside the bar, not just OHLC - at what prices did most of the trading take place?)
  • Determine "where did the market like prices, and where did it not?"

(Think from auction perspective: if iPhone were sold tomorrow at $50, how long will prices remain at $50? What is the fair price of an iPhone? (~$200). What happens if AT&T offered for $50, would you buy it? (Yes) What if the inventory @ $50 is limited, how much volume would happen (very limited - supply will be gone very quickly). That becomes an unfair price to the seller, so the seller will raise prices quickly. Prices will continue going up until the new price becomes unfair, and there are no new buyers.)

Mike


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isn't it also true that...

likewise; statistically, overnight sessions also tests or breaks the day sessions high or low....

in perpetuation?

just a thought, mike.


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Statistically the day session tests or breaks the overnight high or low 96% of the time.

Mike


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Thank you FT71 for this excellent webinar and thank you Mike for making it possible!

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Homework is most important

What happened after HFT came in?
A strategic game of play is needed for every individual trader

Trader needs a game plan for the next trading day

Trading relying on knowledge of basics

Risk is key… never forget!

What is more likely to happen in the market?

With homework done no more work needed

1) Information risk versus
2) Price risk

Context - try to figure out the where the mariet goes
"what is your timeframe?"
- swing trader?
- scalper?
- daytrader?


________________

Thanks FT71 and BigMike for the very interesting webinar

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Big Mike View Post

Thank you for the prompt upload.
I only was able to watch it live for a few minutes and was waiting for the replay really bad..

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For those who watched the entire webinar, what did you think?

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@Private Banker, can I ask if you watched the webinar -- and if so, what did you think? I ask because I know you incorporate a lot of the same ideas.

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Big Mike View Post
@Private Banker, can I ask if you watched the webinar -- and if so, what did you think? I ask because I know you incorporate a lot of the same ideas.

Mike

Hi Mike,

I have not had a chance to watch it yet. I'll watch it and report back here with my thoughts. Sounds interesting though.

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Big Mike View Post
For those who watched the entire webinar, what did you think?

Mike

I've now seen a lot of his webinars, and I think this was his best presentation of his method.

It was also interesting that he said it didn't matter what method you adopt, as long as you stick with it and master it.

I suspect he'll get a lot of new clients for the brokerage, too.

Perhaps you could convince him to do one focused on reading the DOM next time?

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futuretrader View Post
I've now seen a lot of his webinars, and I think this was his best presentation of his method.

I thought so too.

As for his next webinar, we will be working on ideas and I'll post in the usual spots once we have an outline.

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Big Mike View Post
@Private Banker, can I ask if you watched the webinar -- and if so, what did you think? I ask because I know you incorporate a lot of the same ideas.

Mike

OK, I had a chance to watch this webinar. I really like that you have a futures.io (formerly BMT) channel on Youtube. It's nice to just watch this on my TV and sit back in a chair vs. watching on a computer.

I would agree that we both utilize some sort of game plan before walking into every trading session. This was one of the points I was trying to stress earlier in Day trading CL without indicators thread. FT hit it right on the head though. Struggling traders go into every trading session with nothing to back up on. No game plan, just looking for a price pattern or a fib level or a moving average or whatever the indicator du jour is and forcing trades all day with essentially no frame of reference.

When I was in the biz, we had to share our trading ideas and trade intentions with either our manager or mentors when first starting out. We had to explain the rational and build a story around why we think the market will do this or that based on your research. Had I started the day just taking random trades, I probably would've been thrown out of there or had my butt chewed out in front of everyone which is really embarrassing.

You have to have a game plan for what you're going to do based on what the market is telling you. Like FT said, this should already be embedded in your mind so that when you sit down in your chair and you see what the market is doing, it should only be about execution at that point.

What I thought was interesting was FT appears to be looking for absorption on his entry areas just as I do but we appear to do it slightly differently. It looks like he uses his DOM with the volume profile whereas I use the Volume Ladder as I was to see the trades hitting the area I'm looking to get in at. Essentially doing the same thing. I just stopped staring at the DOM as much because of the HFT nonsense. I still look at it but it's more in a way of watching the energy of the orders going through vs. watching for absorption. I think it's important to use a DOM because of the added vision on the order depth. I really can't understand why or how people use a Chart Trader. I use X_Trader for OE so that isn't even an option for me but I think disregarding the book's depth is a big mistake.

Anyway, I thought it was a great presentation and extremely valuable for all traders.

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Big Mike View Post
For those who watched the entire webinar, what did you think?

Mike

First of all, at about 00:00:23 into the video, I checked my phone but there was no text message to read

As for the remaining 02:08:00 and change, awesome stuff. As usual Like everything else FT71 pours himself into, his webinars just keep getting tighter, packing more punch. He always cracks me up when he prefaces it with something like, "Let's see if we can avoid making this a feature-length ..." If you let him, he'd talk shop until the Interwebz runs out of lolcats. And that's awesome, that's what I want to see.

Something I think might get glossed over sometimes is how agnostic FT71 is about trading methodologies. Sure, he speaks mostly from his methodological perspective, but he'll be the first one to tell you everything can work. He's mentioned before about a trader he knew who profitably traded lunar cycles. It matters a lot less to FT71 what method you use than how you treat your trading business. Just a very cool aspect to his approach that sometimes gets lost in the mix.

I'm also not convinced people truly grasp what a HUGE thing he is doing with his brokerage. He's like the anti-broker broker. Anyone else have a professional trader as their broker call them up and say, "Hey, I saw your last few trades and they don't match up with the trading plan you posted so I need you to agree to switch to SIM. If you agree, I'll go ahead and shut you off, put your stuff on liquidate only, and activate your SIM account." Are you kidding me? Just about every other broker seems to take the approach that traders should thank brokers for letting them trade and trade and trade. Okay, I'll stop there. I feel some Jerry Maguire mission statement type stuff bubbling, so I'll leave it at that. It's a very cool thing FT71 is doing for his clients.

Good stuff, Mike, thx for making it happen. Now, keep it coming

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Appreciate how FT71 makes it clear that he respects everyones time, he could easily convey the same information but talk for 6 hours. I have gone through his 4 part webinar series and it was well worth the time and money (yayyy charity).

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omni72 View Post
First of all, at about 00:00:23 into the video, I checked my phone but there was no text message to read

[offtopic]

I am a fan of Dexter My ringtone is Game of Thrones.

[/offtopic]

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futuretrader View Post

Perhaps you could convince him to do one focused on reading the DOM next time?

That would be great! Though he has done a webinar about DOM reading it would be interesting to explain it in a detailed manner how he reads the DOM when he is willing to take a trade in his area of interest. Perhaps he could cover this point in his next webinar too?

Malvolio

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  #47 (permalink)
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I really liked this webinar. I have been room member of tom alexander and have been learning auction market principles in his webinars and trade room for about 2 years now. I think that it it beneficial for me to check other sources of this methodology of market auction, like FT71, because there is slightly different approach, also some extra tools can differ and eventually it all fits in the picture - like the puzzle...in the end one will make his own approach using the basic foundation of market auction; it is just good to see how others are doing it. Looking forward to see nex FT71 presentation.

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This was the best webinar I ever saw. You cannot go further in detail than that... well perhaps through a lobotomy...

I'm in favor of a DOM webinar but for that to work properly it needs to be in real time, on the fly, as it comes. No recorded or playback stuff.

Having said that and knowing that it would be almost impossible for him to give an hour of his trading day to us, mere mortals , maybe instead of a full webinar, he could just record 1 hour during market hours, with a SIM account, and explain in real time what he's seeing, what he's thinking and then publish it here.

Nevertheless, I'm counting the days for the next one

Maybe every Saturday we could do a webinar. I cannot think a better way to spend my Saturday night (dinner time here). Well, actually I do, but that is for after the webinar

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I have received tons of emails from the 'request for feedback' on the FT71 webinar, just want to say thanks to everyone for sharing their feedback. I am glad everyone has really enjoyed and benefited from this webinar.

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Private Banker View Post
OK, I had a chance to watch this webinar. I really like that you have a futures.io (formerly BMT) channel on Youtube. It's nice to just watch this on my TV and sit back in a chair vs. watching on a computer.

I started doing this for all non-Elite webinars. I am still working on technical stuff for better way to handle Elite webinars, while preventing piracy.

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  #51 (permalink)
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FT71's webinar was great, making a note to watch it again soon.... the webinar section is very good, thanks a lot to everyone, can't wait for FT71's next one!

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Private Banker View Post
FT hit it right on the head though. Struggling traders go into every trading session with nothing to back up on. No game plan, just looking for a price pattern or a fib level or a moving average or whatever the indicator du jour is and forcing trades all day with essentially no frame of reference.

I think this is key.

Over the last couple years I have found that I have continued to step back further and further from my trades, using bigger time frames, bigger charts, bigger targets, bigger stops and really just focusing on the bigger picture.

These days I can't imagine trading any other way. The smaller stuff just makes no sense to me any more. I get into heated debates with some trading friends about this

Part of my thinking is that I believe you have to step back in order to really have a shot at going into each session with a plan for what the market may do today. This has become a very important part of my trading. Where I used to "wing it" based on what the market threw at me and how that interacted with components of my chart like moving averages or pivots, these days I have almost nothing left on my chart for interaction on any kind of an intraday or short term level, and instead focus much more on daily charts and bigger picture moves.

I find it much more relaxing to trade this way, and much more profitable as well. I dare to use the word "easier".

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arnie View Post
...he could just record 1 hour during market hours, with a SIM account, and explain in real time what he's seeing, what he's thinking and then publish it here.

1) You can follow FT71 on twitter during market hours - he is giving additional information on how
he sees the market developing.
2) For customers of his brokerage there is a closed user room (I am not a client yet)
3) On FuturesTrader71 | Simplicity in Trading you can find extra webinars he was recording before or during
market hours to discuss special aspects of trading with brokerage clients.
All very helpful!

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
1) You can follow FT71 on twitter during market hours - he is giving additional information on how
he sees the market developing.
2) For customers of his brokerage there is a closed user room (I am not a client yet)
3) On FuturesTrader71 | Simplicity in Trading you can find extra webinars he was recording before or during
market hours to discuss special aspects of trading with brokerage clients.
All very helpful!

GFIs1

Yes, I know.

I donated to his 4 webinars.
FT has become a true "life changer" in terms of trading.

I've always been a volume freak. Since the beginning volume made sense to me but I was never able to figure out the best way to read it. Naturally that we all begin with the vertical histogram but that with time starts to linger...

Then I saw volume horizontal histogram and I thought, this makes much more sense to me, but was back in the days where these tools were only available to top traders and I was still working with Metastock.
Years latter a friend of mine presented Multicharts when I decided to move to daytrading and that was another world, but then again, still no way to have a true volume reading.

Again, years later, I discover futures.io (formerly BMT) thought Multicharts forum and then Fulkrum Trader and his Delta reading. It was an interesting way to read volume, specifically bid and ask volume which I started to get interested on since, again, made perfect sense to me. When I decided to test IRT to my disbelieve there it was, a horizontal volume histogram totally customizable. I finally had the tool I so long waited for. Naturally that I later found that this tool was already available through other 2 affordable programs, but it was one of those cases that you only start to see things after you purchase them.

Since then I've been trying to add my strategy to volume profile but only after starting to follow FT I was able to see the "light in the end of the tunnel".

Daytrading without homework is a death sentence. Daytrading what the market is giving us at that moment without background support has been proved to be as trying to walk with your eyes folded. You can, but you might fall into a hole difficult if not impossible to get out.

I always considered trading a process. Each year you learn new stuff, change the way you see things, adapt to new conditions, an endless stage of learning. With FT I entered in a new stage...

Thank you.
Regards.

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  #55 (permalink)
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Which part was the key? The time frame of trading or being comfortable with the time frame you are focussed on. I've got a good thing going now scalping for less than ten ticks and getting into the hft game, as they say, if you can't beat em join em. What I really took away from FT71's webinar was that whatever you do, do it well, focus on one thing, and do it really well. For the longest time I couldn't be happy with scalps because I always felt I would be better off taking more of the move on the bigger setups. But scalping for small gains is easy on the constitution, as the Rothschilds said, the market is like a cold shower, quick in, quick out. And the scalps add up real quick, as long as you just focus on them and do not try to have it both ways.... We'll see how it goes with the nanex level frequency, so far, so good... I was doing well with this at another time but then got into trying to own the bigger market, which I find far more difficult, whatever works I guess...


Big Mike View Post
I think this is key.

Over the last couple years I have found that I have continued to step back further and further from my trades, using bigger time frames, bigger charts, bigger targets, bigger stops and really just focusing on the bigger picture.

These days I can't imagine trading any other way. The smaller stuff just makes no sense to me any more. I get into heated debates with some trading friends about this

Part of my thinking is that I believe you have to step back in order to really have a shot at going into each session with a plan for what the market may do today. This has become a very important part of my trading. Where I used to "wing it" based on what the market threw at me and how that interacted with components of my chart like moving averages or pivots, these days I have almost nothing left on my chart for interaction on any kind of an intraday or short term level, and instead focus much more on daily charts and bigger picture moves.

I find it much more relaxing to trade this way, and much more profitable as well. I dare to use the word "easier".

Mike


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arnie View Post
This was the best webinar I ever saw. You cannot go further in detail than that... well perhaps through a lobotomy...

I'm in favor of a DOM webinar but for that to work properly it needs to be in real time, on the fly, as it comes. No recorded or playback stuff.

Having said that and knowing that it would be almost impossible for him to give an hour of his trading day to us, mere mortals , maybe instead of a full webinar, he could just record 1 hour during market hours, with a SIM account, and explain in real time what he's seeing, what he's thinking and then publish it here.

Nevertheless, I'm counting the days for the next one

Maybe every Saturday we could do a webinar. I cannot think a better way to spend my Saturday night (dinner time here). Well, actually I do, but that is for after the webinar

@arnie

that is a truly great idea trading simm on real time, applying whatever the demonstrator wants to emphasize and recording it for seminar or webinar for whomever.

better yet, trading it on real time and real money with just 2 contracts which surely will not break any trading educators' back for sure; applying target 1 at whatever price deemed fit by the educator and leaving the 2nd target for runner, if the educator so wishes or going for all in all out, if prefers.

to date, there were only 4 educators that i knew of, who went on line live on own accounts to win over potential clienteles, but there could be many more who have such confidence in their own setups and their own trading abilities that it won't bother them one bit to trade live to satisfy the eternal question--show me the money....

good suggestion, arnie. but do not hold your breath though, it will be quite a while before the real mccoys would be courageous enough to trade live in public.... LOL

but that is very much understandable, right? it is just too risky to do that. every trader is at the mercy of the market that particular day, even if you have the very best setup of say with 80% success rate, on that particular day that you choose to demo your setups and skills, the market and the product might have their own mind to just not cooperate.... and furthermore, it might decide to just humiliate you in front of hundreds.... LOL

just a thought to ponder for some. have a good trading session everyone. cheers.

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nakachalet View Post
that is a truly great idea trading simm on real time, applying whatever the demonstrator wants to emphasize and recording it for seminar or webinar for whomever.

better yet, trading it on real time and real money with just 2 contracts which surely will not break any trading educators' back for sure; applying target 1 at whatever price deemed fit by the educator and leaving the 2nd target for runner, if the educator so wishes or going for all in all out, if prefers.

to date, there were only 4 educators that i knew of, who went on line live on own accounts to win over potential clienteles, but there could be many more who have such confidence in their own setups and their own trading abilities that it won't bother them one bit to trade live to satisfy the eternal question--show me the money....

good suggestion, arnie. but do not hold your breath though, it will be quite a while before the real mccoys would be courageous enough to trade live in public.... LOL

but that is very much understandable, right? it is just too risky to do that. every trader is at the mercy of the market that particular day, even if you have the very best setup of say with 80% success rate, on that particular day that you choose to demo your setups and skills, the market and the product might have their own mind to just not cooperate.... and furthermore, it might decide to just humiliate you in front of hundreds.... LOL

just a thought to ponder for some. have a good trading session everyone. cheers.


Like FT says, if he traded accordingly to his signals but by the end of the day he's negative, tomorrow is another day. If we all understand what is teaching I doubt that anyone will think less of him if he ends negative on the day. I sure won't. You win some, you loose some.

I "know" a guy that trades live, with his own account during 3 weeks for those who takes his course.
John, from No BS Day Trading has an ebook with the same name (great ebook by the way) where he teaches how to read the DOM. Although the book gives a sense of the DOM it lacks that real time thing. Trying to learn something that is not static from a book it's not the preferable way.
The problem though is that he charges $590 for the course and to tell you the truth I'm tired of spending money on books, software, courses and other stuff just to keep track of what is happening in this business and in the end little or no value they offer to my business. Naturally that I accept that people charges for ebooks and videos/webinars since they took time to be made and that time needs to be paid but having said this, you just can't stop thinking that if they are really here to trade and help others, since they took the time to write or make a webinar, why charge such high prices? Naturally this is nothing compared to the so called gurus that charge $5k and more just for a couple of hours... you got to wonder...

In this aspect FT is really amazing since he offers almost 2 hours of his time in each webinar with no real interest behind. Well... naturally that we all know that behind all the webinars is his brokerage firm, but that's alright, we accept that, I accept that. There's no free meals in this world. You are investing on future clients at the same time you do some philanthropy, helping other traders.
Now, when we talk about some course sold by $600, $1000 and so forth, I ask, why bother trading at all with a sure income like this? I'm not saying that they never traded before, I'm saying why bother.

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  #58 (permalink)
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Perhaps you could convince him to do one focused on reading the DOM next time?

Since I initially suggested this, I'd like to clarify that I had no intention to propose a live trading session. It was really just an offhand remark. And pedagogically, a recorded session would be much more beneficial than a live one, though I'm sure it would be a lot of work for him.

In any case, I think you should probably ignore all these ideas and ask FT71 to present whatever he thinks will most benefit struggling traders, since one of the main problems struggling traders have is that they don't know what's good for them.

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Big Mike View Post

Over the last couple years I have found that I have continued to step back further and further from my trades, using bigger time frames, bigger charts, bigger targets, bigger stops and really just focusing on the bigger picture.

Part of my thinking is that I believe you have to step back in order to really have a shot at going into each session with a plan for what the market may do today. This has become a very important part of my trading. Where I used to "wing it" based on what the market threw at me and how that interacted with components of my chart like moving averages or pivots .....

Mike, can I know what are you looking specifically at or for in the bigger time frames?

I find myself looking at the same things as in a smaller time frame - trendlines and pivots; it just that these seems to have more "weight" in a bigger time frame

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jonc View Post
Mike, can I know what are you looking specifically at or for in the bigger time frames?

I find myself looking at the same things as in a smaller time frame - trendlines and pivots; it just that these seems to have more "weight" in a bigger time frame

Check out my recent posts in 'Tomorrows chart' thread for general ideas. It is very simple stuff.

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futuretrader View Post
In any case, I think you should probably ignore all these ideas and ask FT71 to present whatever he thinks will most benefit struggling traders, since one of the main problems struggling traders have is that they don't know what's good for them.

This element is another huge win for retail traders. While running his prop shop, FT71 had a trainee success rate in excess of 90% (seems like it was 94%) and he is trying to build something that greatly increases the retail trader's chances to succeed. Who knows if he'll achieve 94% profitable clients. My guess is his clients will far surpass the 5-10% success rate we've seen 1,000 times.

I know I keep coming back to this stuff, but it can not be over-emphasized how industry trend fading this initiative is. Simple question: Is anyone else's broker doing the same thing?

Btw, I haven't watched these webinars for a while, so I can't recall how much he covers DOM reading but I know it is included in the content:

Journals, DOM and Entries

DOM Reading and Homework Sample

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I just watched this webinar. It was fantastic.

I have been profiling for over a year now, and continue to feel at home with the map of the market it presents. My preparation is similar, and I also generally look for balance => imbalance => balance.

The conversation on risk was amazing, and FT71 is a natural teacher; anyone who uses as many analogies as he does must be, as it's practically the best way of conveying information in an easy-to-understand manner. I was a bit shocked at the end when Mike mentioned how many people were asking about his "chat room" that he briefly mentioned. After FT71 emphasized the importance of developing one's own hypothesis, and not taking other's trades, I still can't help but think that many webinar viewers, sadly, are just looking to latch onto someone else's ideas instead of thinking for themselves. But hopefully I'm wrong about that.

Mike, thanks for bringing us another high quality and practically useful webinar. And thanks as always for recording, as I can rarely make them live. Ciao!

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josh View Post
The conversation on risk was amazing, and FT71 is a natural teacher; anyone who uses as many analogies as he does must be, as it's practically the best way of conveying information in an easy-to-understand manner.

I laughed when you said this, because I always find myself using analogies for the market to try to convey my thoughts, and there are some people on the forum who always beat me up saying it is worthless to describe the market in any terms that are not the market itself.

I do completely agree with the assessment of the webinar, and I have received many, many times the usual amount of emails and feedback on this webinar, with everyone singing praises.


Quoting 
I was a bit shocked at the end when Mike mentioned how many people were asking about his "chat room" that he briefly mentioned. After FT71 emphasized the importance of developing one's own hypothesis, and not taking other's trades, I still can't help but think that many webinar viewers, sadly, are just looking to latch onto someone else's ideas instead of thinking for themselves. But hopefully I'm wrong about that.

Darwinism / Natural Selection, etc etc etc... bottom line, most people are not cut out to be traders. Traders lead, and some people cannot lead. They cannot take risk. Risk aversion does not a trader make. I believe people equate 'chat rooms' with risk aversion, and they are more comfortable following someone elses decisions instead of making their own. This is fine if you are learning concepts of the market that you don't understand (like what is imbalance or balance) but at some point you have to stop sucking on the tit, and grow up to be a big boy and trade for yourself.

Ed Seykota said: "You get what you want out of the market", and this holds true whether you realize what your mind is doing, or if it has tricked you while it still is searching for a way "out" of the pain and suffering you are experiencing from trading badly. Dr. Brett talks about this too, and I've witnessed it enough to firmly believe in it.

Mike

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Great webinar. Mike thanks for putting this together. I have a few questions regarding the daily chart levels.

First of all, what would you use for a Crude daily chart? Would you use a 330M chart since that's what represents the daily RTH for crude?

Secondly, in regards to the micro composite profiles on the daily chart, how did you use the levels you got (mapped out) from the 405M chart. I didn't see those levels carried forward to the intraday chart. It looked like he (FT71) only referenced the intraday LVNs and HVNs as for his areas of doing business. I didn't see ant mention of daily CLVN or CHVNs.

Thank you. By the way I have watched almost all videos on FT71's site incluDing the four webinars. FT71, thank you ver much.

Kulu

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kulu View Post
Great webinar. Mike thanks for putting this together. I have a few questions regarding the daily chart levels.

First of all, what would you use for a Crude daily chart? Would you use a 330M chart since that's what represents the daily RTH for crude?

Secondly, in regards to the micro composite profiles on the daily chart, how did you use the levels you got (mapped out) from the 405M chart. I didn't see those levels carried forward to the intraday chart. It looked like he (FT71) only referenced the intraday LVNs and HVNs as for his areas of doing business. I didn't see ant mention of daily CLVN or CHVNs.

Thank you. By the way I have watched almost all videos on FT71's site incluDing the four webinars. FT71, thank you ver much.

Kulu

Kulu, NT charts the RTH session for daily bars I believe. Otherwise, yes, a 330 minute chart. I'm not sure how FT using the micro composites or better put balance areas but I use them as well and mainly focus on those balance areas' VPOC, and high and low value areas as potential areas of support and rejection. As for carrying them over on to an intra-day chart, I would imagine he looks at multiple charts during the session. The intra-day HVNs and LVNs are typically not significant enough (volume wise) to have a large scale impact on price. They may react for a small move but the gist of using the big picture composite's HVN and LVN areas are looking for repetitive areas of acceptance and rejection on a large volume scale that occurred multiple times in the past. BTW, FT is not the only trader out there that uses volume areas. But he's done a great job with familiarizing it to the retail crowd.

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Private Banker View Post
Kulu, NT charts the RTH session for daily bars I believe. Otherwise, yes, a 330 minute chart.

Any charting software, NT or otherwise, will chart whatever the data feed says is a daily bar. IQFeed plots the ETH for daily bars, as will most data feeds I suspect, as there is technically no "RTH" for the ES, or for CL. . So for NT, one would want to use a 330 minute bar (with the correct session obviously, 9:00am - 2:30pm ET) if one wants the RTH only.


Private Banker View Post
The intra-day HVNs and LVNs are typically not significant enough (volume wise) to have a large scale impact on price. They may react for a small move but the gist of using the big picture composite's HVN and LVN areas are looking for repetitive areas of acceptance and rejection on a large volume scale that occurred multiple times in the past. BTW, FT is not the only trader out there that uses volume areas. But he's done a great job with familiarizing it to the retail crowd.

If I'm understanding you correctly, I would have to offer a different perspective. While long term levels of price activity, whether it be based on volume at price or on price alone, are important, the market has a good "memory" of recent prices as well. The fact that the market has found support at price X many times over the last 2 days may be much more significant than the fact that the market found support at a nearby price Y two months, or two years, ago.

I would be interested to know how many non-retail (aka "professionals") use volume profiling. It's simply not a tool I would expect most pros would use, but then again, I wouldn't know, so I would like to hear more about this.

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Please let me know what specific items you would like to see FT71 discuss for his next webinar.

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  #68 (permalink)
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It would be cool if he could talk about some specific strategies that his successful client are doing, intraday, statistically what is working for people versus machines. risk to reward, number of turns, what is the optimal human frequency of trading, that kind of thing. Specific to wti would be good. I would like to hear about who is succeeding intraday and what kind of approach are they taking, statistically speaking. thanks

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syxforex View Post
It would be cool if he could talk about some specific strategies that his successful client are doing, intraday, statistically what is working for people versus machines. risk to reward, number of turns, what is the optimal human frequency of trading, that kind of thing. Specific to wti would be good. I would like to hear about who is succeeding intraday and what kind of approach are they taking, statistically speaking. thanks

I will ask, but...

I think based on the previous webinars he's held on futures.io (formerly BMT), it seems obvious he is not going to recommend a specific methodology. I agree with him, and it is the same approach I take. Methodologies are personal, there is no right or wrong for the most part. I generally try to keep my mouth shut on the site when it comes to what I think about a persons methodology. Sometimes I succeed I mention this because I believe FT71's philosophy is the same.

I am sure he is partial to his own methodology, which two of the three webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT) have focused on in detail.

With regards to the rest, I think he has mentioned a lot of "what not to do" recommendations, which might be as good as it gets as far as an actual "here is how to make money" bullet point list. It is hard to discuss some of the statistics otherwise because they are very methodology-specific. For example, a scalper probably has an extremely high win rate, which doesn't translate well to other methods. MAE and MFE are going to be highly relational to the methodology. Time in the trade is relative to the type of trader you are.

But, I will ask.

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  #70 (permalink)
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Ya, I hear ya, that's a bit difficult to generalize. I guess I'd just like to hear about the people who are currently making it in these markets and what they are doing, what seems to be the common thread in terms of frequency of trading. I think that's my main question, specific to the crude market if possible.

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Due to his ability to explain, teach, expose his ideas I think he's probably in a position that he cannot go much further without starting entering in the methodology itself.

I lost the count on how many FT's webinars I've seen. Many of them he's repeating the same things he have spoken in a previous webinar because there is not much to say about the matter since all has been thoroughly discussed before.
Like I said in a previous message, a DOM webinar would be interesting, exploring the way he thinks while looking at it and associate his profile analysis. This last webinar he showed us a bit of his process but that replay wasn't the best way to deal with it.

Thought process is key here. I believe that this area is most problematic to most traders. They have so many lines on their charts, they read so many outside analysis, they have gazillions of blinking symbols on their screens that when it's time to hit the button they freeze.
FT1 have been able to show in many of his webinars his thought process but I'd like to see it in real time. No, I don't give a crap if he loses or win. I want to see is thought process and since he reads the DOM that is where my interest is. He has his prices given by the profile, market open, DOM starts to blink like crazy, he starts to read it because market is at a key price level for him. Prices go 1.5 pts above is price level. What his thought? How he reacts? These things are crucial for all types of methodology. No book teaches this. Agree, this is only learned by being there every single day, but if you have a support, a handle to help you in this process things would be much easier.

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  #72 (permalink)
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Just when I was getting good at dom reading the hft presence in the crude market exploded.. I hear ya on the need to isolate something from the chaos. Some days I follow Taleb Nassim's philosophy on information. He hasn't read a newspaper in ten years and refuses to interact with it. On somedays on the contrary I find listening to the flow of news from a squawk helps to get me in synch really well. At any rate, the key is the price action, obviously. I think I have ten million plus ways to make money, though it is possible I have not one and what success I have had can be explained by the random alchemy of it all. I'm trying to nail down if there is real population of successful intraday crude futures traders out there and not just a few freak successful ones, and what is the common thread. As manual intraday traders, what is the optimal frequency to trade. Are the average trade wins a certain percentage of the daily range, hard tick counts, how many times, what is the thread in the population of human intraday crude futures traders making money intraday against the machines. If we took them altogether, what would be the average say number of trades taken, win size and loss size. That's what I'd like to know.

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josh View Post
Any charting software, NT or otherwise, will chart whatever the data feed says is a daily bar. IQFeed plots the ETH for daily bars, as will most data feeds I suspect, as there is technically no "RTH" for the ES, or for CL. . So for NT, one would want to use a 330 minute bar (with the correct session obviously, 9:00am - 2:30pm ET) if one wants the RTH only.

I would say most days are one in the same (daily vs. 330 minute) but you're right, the 330 minute will give you the most accurate levels such as H,L and C.


josh View Post
If I'm understanding you correctly, I would have to offer a different perspective. While long term levels of price activity, whether it be based on volume at price or on price alone, are important, the market has a good "memory" of recent prices as well. The fact that the market has found support at price X many times over the last 2 days may be much more significant than the fact that the market found support at a nearby price Y two months, or two years, ago.

I definitely agree. I was referring to that particular trading session's HVN and LVN levels as the day was developing. Where price reacted at an LVN, there's probably a confluence for other reasons the market moved there such as a previous, bigger picture volume area, a previous high, low or close, etc. But with regards to volume at a particular price that is more recent, I couldn't agree with you more there. If 104's have been a highly demanded price for the last 3 or 4 days, if price got there again, I would expect buying support from there. If we failed to find that support, context may have changed and lower prices are probably coming.


josh View Post
I would be interested to know how many non-retail (aka "professionals") use volume profiling. It's simply not a tool I would expect most pros would use, but then again, I wouldn't know, so I would like to hear more about this.

Professional traders have been tracking volume clusters/zones for a very long time. Are you under the assumption that FT invented this? He probably fine tuned it with the modern software tools now available but the concept itself was derived from the CBOT's Liquidity Data Bank reports. They were tracking TPO levels as well as Volume levels. Maybe I misinterpreted you there.

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josh View Post
If I'm understanding you correctly, I would have to offer a different perspective. While long term levels of price activity, whether it be based on volume at price or on price alone, are important, the market has a good "memory" of recent prices as well. The fact that the market has found support at price X many times over the last 2 days may be much more significant than the fact that the market found support at a nearby price Y two months, or two years, ago.

I would be interested to know how many non-retail (aka "professionals") use volume profiling. It's simply not a tool I would expect most pros would use, but then again, I wouldn't know, so I would like to hear more about this.


Hi.

I agree with Josh. Prices alone are better reminded if we look back 1 to 2 days then 1 to 2 months. Volume in the other hand is a bit different, it can go higher in the time frame but it has its own space.

Traders that traded ES 2 months ago at 1370 may not be the same trading now at 1399, hence the lack of price memory. We need to look at a chart to remind ourselves of those prices, but traders that traded ES 2 days ago at 1380 might be the same trading at 1399 and they will react at certain levels traded during the last 2 days. They don't need a chart for this, they have the prices graved in their brains.

I don't agree with FT's time length composite. I believe his composite is reading the volume from 2005. Volume has a seasonality behind it that can mislead the reading.
I've always supported my reading in trading ranges, maybe due to my WD Gann days, but it's something that I truly believe. I go back in time depending of the time a trading range is in the works.
ES is trading in a trading range since April 27 and my main volume profile is based on that range. I then have another one beginning in October 4 2011 and even another one beginning March 6 which encompasses the one in which we are now.

OK, I confess, I recently added a composite beginning in October 11 2007 just to see the readings I have with it. Again, I'm all about ranges. Remember something, traders are always measuring data through their peaks, between the highest high and the lowest low, hence ranges.

Apart from the April range, I do follow each day profile and it's VPOC as their pivot points. It's all about balance and pivots are a very powerful balance area.
That is where the "memory" is, the most recent days, the most recent range, where some traders are locked in.

Some price traded 6 months ago, 1 year ago... its significance is the one given by the chart (trader). Traders only remember them because they see them on the chart, whereas a price traded yesterday or the previous day, where you lost your monthly paycheck due to a dumb idea... well, you don't need a chart to remind you of that, you want your money back, you want revenge, you'll be there again.

Well you might say that if you lost your paycheck 1 year ago at a certain price you'll remember that price and despiteI agreeing with this I must say that 1 year have passed, the markets are different, you are different, you'll not going to react as this would have happened yesterday. Yes, you'll remember it, but you won't act on it.

Regards.

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  #75 (permalink)
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The marketmakers at the banks trade straddles, risk reversals, vol swaps, etc, with each other via interdealer brokers, (I was a clerk on the Nikkei and Hang Seng desk at Cantors). These products trade very heavily some days with billions being done. They use these structures to do their dealing and make the market and they are dated out at 1M, 6M, 1Y, out to three years generally, but the main volume is done in the 6M to 18M range. I think these old big volume areas might be important. When I was trading that stuff I just knew what the different types of derivatives were and I could write up a custom 100MM contract in 30 seconds without making a mistake, but I knew nothing about technical analysis or prop trading. Now I am just focussing on intraday crude, but I know the dealers must be watching those points fairly closely...

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Big Mike View Post
Please let me know what specific items you would like to see FT71 discuss for his next webinar.

Mike

Thanks BigMike

I would love some discussion on the DOM

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I'd like to see 2 things discussed:

(1) In the last webinar, FT talked about how he only trades the RTH session, therefore he only bases his volume profiles on the RTH session. Yet, I'd like to challenge (if that's not too strong of a word) the validity of using a volume profile at all based on non-weighted volume numbers. Let me explain this please.

Using the backadjusted IQFeed continuous ES contract, from Turnaround Tuesday (Oct 4 of last year) until present, for the overnight session only, if one bought the open and sold the close, he would have made 118 handles. The accumulated volume for this period was 50.7M contracts.

Over the same period, if one would have bought the open at 9:30, and sold the close at 4:15, one would have made 152.25 handles. The accumulated volume for this period was 226.7M contracts.

So with 22% as much volume as the RTH session (18% of the total volume), the overnight session contributed 77% as much towards positive movement in this bull run as the RTH did. What does that mean? Well, the takeaway message for me is that volume alone does not indicate indicate interest in prices, or as FT put it, how much the market "likes" or "does not like" certain prices. The futures may be derived from the underlying cash index, but remember that it's the stocks and therefore the index which "gap" on the open to match the futures, NOT the other way around. World markets are working overnight, from Australia, then to Tokyo, then Hong Kong, then various parts of Europe like Frankfurt and Germany, and THEN the US market opens, while the US futures including the ES have been "tracking" with the other markets overnight. So are these price levels overnight less valid simply because little ES volume traded there? Isn't it more logical to conclude that rather, the prices themselves reflect the real supply and demand (or whatever you'd like to call it)? Perhaps the overnight volume could be given a weight, to "normalize" it with RTH volume. This might actually give a truer picture of what prices the market really likes or does not like.

These are some new things I'm trying to crystallize that someone else has me thinking about recently, but I have had these concerns from the very minute I saw volume at price on a futures contract.

(2) I'd like to question the validity of using a back-adjusted continuous contract for reasons based on rollover/expiration volume.

On the attached spreadsheet you will see that the minute-based (intraday) volume diverges from that reported in the daily bar volume, beginning near rollover day, up until the expiration day of the contract, by about 20 to 30%. The only logical conclusion from this (I have attempted to talk to IQFeed about it) is that for the daily bar they are adding new front month volume with the contract about to expire. Because we are talking about contracts, and not a physical asset, there is no "thing" to trade, and during that expiration week many people are trading the new front month contract, but it's evident from these numbers that many are actually still trading the old contract up until expiry. This skews the volume stats quite a bit for those 8 to 10 days. There may be a "rollover day," but that does not mean that there is not significant volume traded on the old contract after this, as the spreadsheet shows.

I watched one of FT's webinars sometime in March, and at one point he shows that he is confused by the fact that there is a tiny profile for March 8. Well, this was rollover day itself. Look at your continuous ES contract for 3/8, and it should be clear that due to volume being split between ESH and ESM, the profile is not representative of real interest there. There would need to be a combined profile for all of the days shown where there is a significant discrepancy of volume (those I've highlighted in red on the spreadsheet).

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: xlsx ES minute vs daily bar volume comparison at rollover.xlsx (14.6 KB, 33 views)
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Big Mike's Avatar
 
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There is now an AMA (Ask Me Anything) thread for questions aimed directly at FuturesTrader71:


As part of our AMA series, FT71 will also be presenting two 30-minute live screen sharing sessions each month. This is in addition to any normally scheduled "full" webinar presentations.

Mike

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I think that Volume Profile has something very valuable to offer - but I don't yet have a clear idea of how to turn that into a click on "buy" or "sell" at a particular price. Are there rules to follow? If you're in a balance day and price hits the extreme, fade it? For how big a target and how big a stop?

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RobertMiami View Post
I think that Volume Profile has something very valuable to offer - but I don't yet have a clear idea of how to turn that into a click on "buy" or "sell" at a particular price. Are there rules to follow? If you're in a balance day and price hits the extreme, fade it? For how big a target and how big a stop?

First place to start is with the webinars. There are many in futures.io (formerly BMT) Webinar section on volume profile by FT71, and then there are more on FT71's own website FuturesTrader71 | Simplicity in Trading.

You should watch all of them as a starting point.

Mike

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RobertMiami View Post
I think that Volume Profile has something very valuable to offer - but I don't yet have a clear idea of how to turn that into a click on "buy" or "sell" at a particular price. Are there rules to follow? If you're in a balance day and price hits the extreme, fade it? For how big a target and how big a stop?

It is not designed to be used this way. You will determine your own risk parameters, trade selection, and actions. It is a tool, just like anything else. Good luck!

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