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I thought it might be a good exercise if we could get some guys to share "tomorrow's chart", in other words a chart with their projections of what price may do (or multiple scenarios) and then how they might trade them.
Mike
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Here is one scenario I am contemplating for tomorrow on the ES:
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(1) Move above today's high, trapping bulls and stopping shorts.
(2) Drop back into channel just below weekly low, trapping new shorts and stopping bulls.
(3) Re-test top of TL
(4) Move towards bottom of TL, looking to find support around 1338
Now this is too much for one day most likely, so I am looking for it to unfold over a couple of days.
Mike
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Here is another scenario I am contemplating for ES:
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(1) Move lower below weekly low, trapping new shorts and stopping bulls.
(2) Move back up above today's high, trapping new bulls and stopping bears.
(3) Small retracement back to top of trendline, where we will find new buyers.
(4) Buyers carry us to new highs and head back towards a very old TL near 1385.
Mike
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I will try to do a better job marking up charts in relation to the time axis going forward.
Mike
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The move from 1370 to 1364 has been duplicated as a measured move from 1369.25 to 1362.50.
Solid Blue Lines.
The ES retraced from 1364 to 1369.
Solid Dark Red Line.
If I assume the measured move will duplicate the market will now move from
1362.50 to 1367.75 as shown on the Dashed Dark Brown line.
Then continue the measured move down to 1362 as shown with the Dashed Blue Line.
With this information and $5.00 you can get a cup of Espresso at Starbucks.
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This obviously won't happen tomorrow but this is one potential outcome I'm watching for the ES. I personally think if it drops much further, there's a huge air pocket of no volume that could have the market drop HUGE in a very short order. Somehow news finds it's way into stuff like this so maybe we get something big announced. I say potential as there's no guarantee this can happen and is merely a potential outcome over the next few days, weeks or months. Yes, the market can crash during an election year. It's happened before.
Anyway, this is how I could see it play out. The ES has been in a balancing range for quite sometime until this past Monday. We have since dropped hard and fast down into the next balance area and have experienced rejection of price (so far) from the previous balance area's value area high (VAH). I would expect a second test of this which will send price up to test the value area low of the balance area we just fell from. I would expect rejection from there as well which should send prices down further into the lower balance area. If these levels do not hold, we will probably see a very fast drop down to the 1230 - 1240 area which is where the next large area of acceptance is.
I've said this before, the only reason why equities are where they are is because of the global central bank's injection of liquidity. If there are no more LTRO's, no additional QE's, etc. equities are literally toast and will most likely have one of the worst runs we've seen in a long time. Another crises. But it all rides on the world's central banks as the equities markets are now official drug addicts and without their drugs (QE), it becomes very very sick.
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