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I thought it might be a good exercise if we could get some guys to share "tomorrow's chart", in other words a chart with their projections of what price may do (or multiple scenarios) and then how they might trade them.
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Here is one scenario I am contemplating for tomorrow on the ES:
(1) Move above today's high, trapping bulls and stopping shorts.
(2) Drop back into channel just below weekly low, trapping new shorts and stopping bulls.
(3) Re-test top of TL
(4) Move towards bottom of TL, looking to find support around 1338
Now this is too much for one day most likely, so I am looking for it to unfold over a couple of days.
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Here is another scenario I am contemplating for ES:
(1) Move lower below weekly low, trapping new shorts and stopping bulls.
(2) Move back up above today's high, trapping new bulls and stopping bears.
(3) Small retracement back to top of trendline, where we will find new buyers.
(4) Buyers carry us to new highs and head back towards a very old TL near 1385.
The move from 1370 to 1364 has been duplicated as a measured move from 1369.25 to 1362.50.
Solid Blue Lines.
The ES retraced from 1364 to 1369.
Solid Dark Red Line.
If I assume the measured move will duplicate the market will now move from
1362.50 to 1367.75 as shown on the Dashed Dark Brown line.
Then continue the measured move down to 1362 as shown with the Dashed Blue Line.
With this information and $5.00 you can get a cup of Espresso at Starbucks.
Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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This obviously won't happen tomorrow but this is one potential outcome I'm watching for the ES. I personally think if it drops much further, there's a huge air pocket of no volume that could have the market drop HUGE in a very short order. Somehow news finds it's way into stuff like this so maybe we get something big announced. I say potential as there's no guarantee this can happen and is merely a potential outcome over the next few days, weeks or months. Yes, the market can crash during an election year. It's happened before.
Anyway, this is how I could see it play out. The ES has been in a balancing range for quite sometime until this past Monday. We have since dropped hard and fast down into the next balance area and have experienced rejection of price (so far) from the previous balance area's value area high (VAH). I would expect a second test of this which will send price up to test the value area low of the balance area we just fell from. I would expect rejection from there as well which should send prices down further into the lower balance area. If these levels do not hold, we will probably see a very fast drop down to the 1230 - 1240 area which is where the next large area of acceptance is.
I've said this before, the only reason why equities are where they are is because of the global central bank's injection of liquidity. If there are no more LTRO's, no additional QE's, etc. equities are literally toast and will most likely have one of the worst runs we've seen in a long time. Another crises. But it all rides on the world's central banks as the equities markets are now official drug addicts and without their drugs (QE), it becomes very very sick.
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This is what I'm looking at on Crude Oil. The idea seems to fit in with that of equities. Crude has been resting/finding support on the bottom of the current bullish (orange outline) and bearish (red outline) channels. From a bigger picture perspective CL has remained within a macro bearish channel with the market banging it's head on the top of the channel back on Feb. 24th, 2012. Since that point, the market has been "drifting" lower but still remaining within it's micro bullish and bearish channels.
My thoughts from here now that we've had our fifth day of support is we move up into the mid-point of the bearish channel which will fill the gap from 4/3/12 with the potential of even moving to the top of the channel and the potential to break out higher and test the top of the bearish macro channel.
In order to achieve this however, the market has a lot of work to do. By looking at a volume profile chart, you can see that we fallen below the area we've been balancing in since the end of Feb '12. We've now dipped down into the previous balance area which is a huge acceptance area and are having a hard time getting above that balance area's value area high (VAH). For example, today's move higher still couldn't achieve a close higher out of that balance area. Going into tomorrow, I'd like to see another test of that VAH with an attempt higher but we'll have to see what kind of open we get.
In any event, we should always remain remotely unbiased and trade what our charts are telling us as a lot can happen overnight. Especially with how things are currently. A case lower would be continued failure to get up out of the VAH and trend lower finally breaking through the supportive lower channel trend lines. I could see us run into the upper 90's in a hurry should that happen.
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Rather than posting guesswork for tomorrow, first I'd be more interested in developing a structured, probabilistic methodology for estimating tomorrow's price path and only then forward test to see how it works. (i.e. a definite model for predicting tomorrow's price path). Need to do more thinking about that.
"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Here is tomorrow's chart for Friday the 13th.
Given the range we've seen today, I feel that we will likely be in a tight range on Friday, or that we'll see a small decline back towards Wednesday's levels and Thursday's lows.
I am not expecting to see us move above 1400, so if that happens, I will be caught by surprise.
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I agree with Big Mike on this one. Today's move higher was perfect and well anticipated on the ES. Just to compliment what Mike posted, today's action took price right to the bottom of the previous balance area value area low (VAL). This is also halfway back from the high of 1417.75. Additionally, we are now sitting right in the middle of the bearish channel (red outline). Should momentum truly be turning, this move higher should be sold into and take us back to into the lower level of today's range.
Of course there is the risk of the market moving a bit higher as we need to remember that equities are now an official central planning tool, lol!
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To follow up from my post regarding CL yesterday, this market moved right up to the middle of the bearish channel (red outline) and stopped literally to the tick. This filled 4/3/12's gap. Price then retraced back down to yesterday's high and ripped right back up going into the close.
Where we're sitting now, tomorrow could see another test of the bearish channel's mid-point with the potential of breaking higher. Failure at the mid-point or to even get there could have us test yesterday's high once again which was a significant resistance area for the past few days. One other thing to note is we finally got a close up and out of that large balance area and could fast track back up into the previous balance area based on the low volume between the two balance levels.
Ultimately, I'd still like to see a test of the top of the bearish channel which will fill the gap up at the 107 area. Then again, not all gaps are meant to be filled. If equities get smoked, CL will most likely be right there with it. If equities rally again, count on the energy complex going right along with it. Of course, equities only rally on potential Fed easing. The Fed's hands may be tied now because of this tight correlation. But that's a discussion for another thread.
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For tomorrow's chart (Monday) on SP500, I am looking at this as a possible scenario:
A retest of this weeks low, followed by a move back up to towards Friday's close.
Then I think for Monday overnight, or Tuesday, we might see a sell off back into the channel area. It is too much for one day, so it may take a couple days to get there.
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Another scenario I am prepared for, but I don't believe is as likely, is as follows:
(a) Rally up towards Friday's open
(b) Retracement half way towards Friday's close
(c) Continuation higher, making a new high
I will be prepared should this happen, but I am currently putting more weight on the downward move continuing than this. However, if this does unfold, then I would be prepared for us to rocket up towards 1425 very quickly.
Used to be a time when correlation between EURUSD and ES/US equities was a given - thats been history for many months now, as the problem-child spotlight is cast onto the EU (which the US is all too happy to do), while US equities have been in quasi-rally mode, as the EURUSD suffers a seemingly slow death of lower lows, but yet unconfirmed downwards breakage.
There's not much to write home about from euroland from a fundamental point of view (not that things are any rosier in the US IMO), but that negativity sentiment spotlight remains on Brussels, with no shortage of issues: once though limitless liquidity drying up, banks drawing on more free money to pay off bad debt, to only add bad debt to their own and the ECBs balance sheets. (ie., taking out a new credit card, to pay the already huge and unmangeable existing credit card) None-to-few of the Greece/Spain/Portugal savings measures nor even the most basic of growth/GDP/employment numbers are materializing, while Germany's unscathedness becomes more and more meaningless. Globally, the recent (Friday) China numbers show absolutely no goodness; esp. when one translate that into the slowness that has engulfed the key Shenzhen manufacturing area. Should US equities start a sustained down move, the thus far spared EURUSD should start breaking down quite quickly.
Given where the EURUSD has been (months of lower highs), and the potential for USD/DX advancement as the least bad kid on the block (conveniently forgetting the money printing nature of the US betterment plan), I think we have further EURUSD downside to explore/confirm. 1.285 seems to fit in as a not terribly sad potential PA development over the next 5-10 days. Chartwise 1.32 was key and has now failed, now the psyche level of 1.30 looms. Looking back, this is where EURUSD was 2 summers ago, as the first bank stress results were released, and then a subsequent rally to 1.49 ensued. (Put your hand up if you think those banks and results are in any better shape today, ie., with their absurdly more swelled up debt levels). A lower EURUSD is in fact even better for the German locomotive, and Brussels, Germany & the ECB are ominously quiet about any textbook lip service for a "strong" euro.
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Despite some retracing on monday I see a not yet finished downmove in the DAX in the coming weeks making
a possible
1) down to 6200
2) retracing to 6400
3) faster move to 5800 level
Just a bigger picture to our day to day forecasts as higher levels do not seem to be reached now.
Lets see how it plays out.
To me, price always fall as we come into paying taxes. They are exiting their positions to pay their taxes and soon as the tax deadline has been meet, price will rally up a bit.
I agree with private banker about the state of things. But they aren't going to let this market drop just before the next election. They are not going to start doing more QE, till after the election, so we could possibly stay bouyant for a while but eventually it could happen.
Unless there is another crisses, then anything is possible.
Rachel
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Thanks for your thoughts and they would make sense if the market were full of retail investors. The issue I have with that theory is a majority of professional traders utilize business entities which are on completely different tax schedules. This also applies to all the funds out there. So, I don't think that theory makes that much sense.
As for this year being an election year, just know the market has crashed during an election year before and wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again based on many people's view of the current administration. So, to think we stay even based on that doesn't make sense but as we know anything can happen. Equities have been rising ONLY because of the global effort done by the world's central banks to provide an astonishing amount of liquidity to the global markets which has induced a large appetite for risk. Once that liquidity goes away, we will see traders/investors unwind in a hurry. As I mentioned the market (ES) has been balancing at two big areas in the last few months. We've just fallen down from the upper balance area, hit the next level where we found rejection upon the initial test. We then ran back up to the upper balance area's value area low and was completely rejected. Going into Friday's close, we saw substantial selling taking place. I think we test this lower balance area with the potential for further rejection. Should we break lower, a very low volume area exists based on the last run up which could have price literally free fall through it. We'll have to see of course.
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Honestly - about tomorrow's DAX move I have no clue.
But for wednesday there is a high probability to see a move
down to 6396.
Will wait for tomorrow's entry to decide which
trade shall bring some extra points.
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For Tuesday on the Euro, I am looking at:
- An overnight retracement back towards 3100.
- If 3100 holds, a move back to Monday high around 3150 and then to 3200 if buyers come in strong.
- If 3100 breaks, move to 3075 for sure, followed by 3025 area.
- Depending on day range, if we see bearish day then 2980 to 2970 are definitely areas of interest. Not sure we will get there, depends on daily volatility.
I was surprised by the quick move upward on the Euro today. I still believe the short looks like the better trade so long as we don't make a HH above 3218 followed by HL above 3140. If we do see this HH+HL and see strong buyers at 3150 then a move to 3300 depending on the day's range and volatility/news. And I will have been stopped out.
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For Tuesday on SP500:
I am a seller right now.
- Looking for bigger picture downward move to resume
- If we break 1375 I will look to be add more to my short on a fake breakout "spring"
- Looking for 1360 to breakdown quickly to 1353 area.
I will be watching the 1353 area closely to see if some buyers step in. I think it is likely, but I am thinking it will just be a series of LH+LL, so if that pattern holds I will look to be a seller on the retracement LH.
I am not sure if the day range will support it, but a move to 1346 area would be next area of interest.
- Looking for this wedge to breakdown immediately
- Looking for yet another test of 3100
- Looking for breakdown below 3100, quickly moving to 3075 and then 3030 or so
- Next area of interest is around 2980-3010
- Followed by 2950 if the daily range supports it
From a profile point of view, you can see some confluence with these numbers. They are combination of price S/R and profile VA and POC levels.
Now, should I be wrong on my bearish sentiment, then we should see a break above 3180 met with enthusiastic buyers, quickly propelling price above 3220. I will be stopped should this happen.
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I am still bearish the SP500. Are you? What is your view, please post and share.
The break of the yellow trendline was met with strong buyers, forcing me to get out of my short position. But the bulls were unable to give us a new HH over the 4/12 high.
- If bulls are unable to break 1389 enthusiastically, I remain bearish
- A retest of 1375 seems very high
- A move back to 1360 is the next area of interest
Should I be wrong with my bearish sentiment, then we will see strong buyers stepping in at 1389 and we should break 1400.
I agree with your views on both the ES and the Euro, I could post a chart but it would be redundant in this case and yours are much prettier anyway .....
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looking for the price to drop first to 1377.50 or 1375.25!
....however, if the price does not drop down but it keeps keeps moving (afterhours) upwards north of 1388.50 then it needs to cement itself against 1386.50 in order to go higher!
Either way, we are in for a very nice bullish move to fullfill this bearish pattern!
P.S. IF the price breaks the 1360 level, then we are in for a pretty sweet AB=CD pattern!
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Just my observations on the day for the ES. The market appeared to get a bid during the EU session which intensified during the RTH session. We opened right below yesterday's high where there was an attempt to "contain" the market from there but as soon as price retraced back down to the ETH session vwap and bounced, a flurry of buying came into the market taking price all the way back up into the upper balance area which has been an area of resistance recently.
By looking at the cumulative delta and the amount of selling that took place at the high's, I would venture to say that today was a pump and dump. Selling pressure really was exhausted which stopped at an important bullish trend line yesterday which was a perfect opportunity to pump this thing higher today. Going into the close, we had more selling and price was once again rejected from that upper balance area. It now appears that we are establishing a range/balance area with the high so far being today at 1388.75 and the low from 4/10/12 at 1352.50 giving us a balance area of 36.25 points which is slightly tighter than the previous by 11.25 points or roughly 24%. Based on this second rejection, I can definitely see a test of the lower end of the current developing balance area with the potential of further rejection. This is the first time we've established a balance lower than the previous which could signal a major momentum change.
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we may have ran into some supply into end of day on the spy. Euro Im hoping will get a little rally so I can get short again. althou it did get into some sellers. will see how it goes no bias at all.
Dax had a strong long move on Tuesday - so my view on Monday for Wednesday is completely
obsolete.
A new - and smaller short move - is plotted in the chart.
Price in the daily chart has reached the upper boundary of the Kumo again - which signifies
a resistance - so price should fall again Wednesday. How much is not easy to define but in
the attached chart my view is on 6700 (POC).
Interesting anyway.
GFIs1
PS: as my mechanical system for the DAX does not allow a trade after a rally of more than
150 POINTS on the previous day - there is NO trade proposal for Wednesday.
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support @ 1367
Resistance@ 1396.5
61.8 highs to lows @ 1394 (line in the sand) pivot @ 1378
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As suggested earlier, the price needed to drop in order to find an adequate support to move higher. At this point it remains to be seen if the price will break the Blue Music line and move lower into an AB=CD pattern, or resume it's path to the fulfillment of it's higher purpose! Anything above the 38% looks promisingly Bullish for Wednesday!
The Music Line (black) is waiting @ the 1400 level!!
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Well, you guessed it - still bearish on Euro for Thursday.
- Unclear what TL if any is being respected right now
- Series of LH+LL yesterday and today
- If we move above 3150-3178, I would like to see sellers come in strong and trap bulls
- A move below 3050 should be answered with 3025 to 3000, and again if volatility allows then 2980 or so
I will be wrong should price move above 3178 and find new support there (strong buyers), which should then propel us towards 3220 almost instantly, and continue a run up towards 3400. I will be looking for indications I am wrong on Thursday. I am also looking for indications I am right, to add to my short position.
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And probably not a surprise I am still bearish SP500 as well.
- Couple trend lines to be aware of, the yellow ones are the shorter time frame recent channel, and the magenta is a much older TL from January
- Consolidation today should lead to a move tomorrow
- So far, bulls unable to break above yellow TL from April 2 high
- The April 2 high is a LH from the March 27 high
- Series of LH+LL since then
- The HH on April 12 was met quickly with strong selling
- Double top of April 12 high on April 17 met with selling, but not much
For these reasons I remain bearish, and am looking for a move to test weekly lows of 1360 for starters, and then a move to 1350 and below. It will depend on the volatility of the day.
For me to be wrong on this short, I am looking for price to breakout above the yellow upper TL, take out the prior HH of 1389 and be met with strong buying taking us back into and above the much older magenta TL channel, which would put us north of 1400.
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Here's what I'm seeing on the ES. Yesterday's failure to break out of current balance should create a tendency to test the lower end of the current balance now (in theory). Today ventured out of balance on a few occasions and was met with selling again. Although we had an inside day, we closed the day right on the IB low which was a great trade from the IB high. Cumulative delta looked like it was dumping pretty hard going into the close as well.
With that being said, I'd like to see a test of the lower balance area now going forward. As always, anything can happen which is why it's important to trade what's given to you in each trading day.
Cheers,
PB
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Tomorrow for SP500 I am just looking at my post # 53 for a continuation of (3) and (4). Items (1) and (2) worked perfectly from yesterday's chart for today.
Things to note:
- If we see a lot of buyers come in, then we should see the 1390 level taken out.
- Otherwise this last low of 1365 should be taken out swiftly, as bears show they are in control.
This means that as we pull up towards 1390, I am a seller until I believe I am on the wrong side. And as we move below 1365, I will start to buy back and exit the position, looking at levels around 1358, 1353, and 1346.
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Decision time on the Euro. I remain bearish for now, but we are at a decision point.
Do we break above these TL's, onward to 3200, 3300 and 3400? Or are bears in control, and push us back towards the bottom of this recent channel and to 3025 area and perhaps 3000?
- I am bearish until I see strength (buying) and not weakness (selling) at the top of the TL
- I will look to cover some around the bottom of the TL ~3025 area
- If Friday has a lot of volatility, we could see 3300 or 2975, depending on who is in control
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Similar to Big Mike, I'd like to see a continuation of my comments from yesterday with a further test of the lower balance area. Today ended up where I expected. Price stopped once again at the bigger picture bullish trend line but is still respecting it's newly established bearish channel. If we break below the bullish trend line, I'd also like to see a break below the current developing balance area to confirm we are moving lower. One thing to note is when you see big down candles like this in a row, this can result in a big gap down. Not by any means guaranteed but I've seen it many times in the past.
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On the SP500 today we had confluence between the rising trendline from April 10th low, touching the April 17th low, and now today's April 19th low --- and also a HVN.
The area between "now" and the HVN is still not fleshed out very much, so we might see a range day or two in this area before making a move.
This morning when I saw yesterday's POC and VAH taken out and met with enthusiastic selling, I felt like I was in a good position with my short. I will look for similar behavior on Friday --- whether we open below Thursday's POC and whether or not any move towards 1385/1390 is met with strong selling again.
Each candle represents a session (Globex, RTH). That's why there are two bars a day on average except at the start of a new week. If anyone knows how to create one bar per session then please share your technique as this is the best i was able to do with Ninja.
We can see more wide range down bars than up bars and the recent tails at the top denote supply or resistance between 2710..2730.
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GFIs1's gut feeling as the basic daily chart is looking forward with
1) the DAX surfing out of the daily Kumo in direction NORTH
2) the elections in France will take out some uncertainties for EU investments
3) the international money flow to help struggling countries seems to be fixed by this weekend
It seems like a lot of NT users struggle with creating accurate daily/weekly/monthly charts, so here is how I do it:
1) Make sure "Kinetick - End of Day (Free)" is your primary connection
2) Open up a daily/weekly/monthly chart
3) Ensure Session Template is set to "Default 24/7"
3) Right click on chart and "Reload All Historical Data"
Hope that helps
JJ
Trading is: Having the KNOWLEDGE to know when the odds are in my favour, having the PATIENCE to wait for that moment, then having the DISCIPLINE to handle the trade properly when it goes in my favour and properly when it goes against me
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Case for bulls to step in - FOMC shortly - end of month buying - Apple earnings on deck , about 180 companies reporting this week
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My problem is that i can't create a chart to correctly show each session of a given instrument as a single candle. As my example shows on the NASDAQ when a new week starts, i get three candles for Monday, the rest of the week is OK as i get two candles per day (Globex, RTH). I have not found a better way to be more accurate with Ninja. Your solution below would not achieve what i want to show, ie, Globex High/Low/Mid as a single bar and RTH High/Low/Mid as a single bar.
Monday start for the DAX:
The heavy weight of "French Fly Sarkozy Lightweight" brought the DAX down around 3%...
Above quote will only happen when tomorrow's and thursdays moves are heading north.
As the Dax is sitting on a stable support now - the scenario is still valid.
GFIs1
edit: First support @ 6535 had been reached on 16th of april - last week - CLOSING today above this support
Second support @ 6466
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Let me rephrase, after getting a PM about this from someone (not the poster).
I am just wanting posters to share charts and observations, along with thoughts for the coming day and what possibilities our outcomes we might see tomorrow -- since this thread is titled "Tomorrow's chart", the purpose was an exercise in trying to visualize possible scenarios to trade from tomorrow.
My question was - thanks for the chart, but what to do with it? What areas are you interested in? What is your plan? Are you bullish or bearish?
As far as my understanding goes, we are in a downtrend channel. My plan is to observe price on approach to the channel boundary as well as the middle of it. I expect a test of these areas to hold unless strength is displayed toward the boundary or the middle in which case i'd expect a breakout and would watch the reaction post-breakout for clues as to future direction. Two possibilities, on weakness following the breakout, the expectation is for a failure and reversal back within the channel or weakness on the pullback then the expectation is for continuation. The objective is to fade the weak hands at key areas, those who get trapped in the wrong direction. I can't cross the bridge until i get there to evaluate the forces in presence so for tomorrow it is not possible to tell presently. All we can do in advance is to spot what appears to be significant levels and trade accordingly once price visits these places again.
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we are still within the channel a strong push upward occured due to Apple's earnings. Need to see the reaction to gauge the impact over the coming days. I would not be surprised to see a second retest of the high and a failure to break due to the strong resistance above 2705 (see overlapping tails covering this area 2705..2725.
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Me personally, I will look for signs of it continuing to follow this trend-line / move just outside, and optimally just a tick below a previous swing/high low. Otherwise, I will look for it to form a new trend line and then same basic rules. Look for action at extremes of trend-line, and optimally a failed breakdown/breakout bar for a great entry.
If I was guessing I would say we move up to 90ish roll over, then bounce again to head to 95, but that is based on what I am looking at now, which can all change easily. I will adapt as the market changes, but will anticipate and wait for A+ setups only.
If you look at the circled bars 12:49, 1:23, and 2:13, these were examples of the failed breakout bars.
Gary
As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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I have never been able to see long term how to use Fibs consistently real time to take an entry or decide an exit, unless price agrees. Example, I will see the high for 4/2 was 1417.50, and could see this as a potential target, no Fibs needed.
Fibs, Murrey Math, etc, always look good after the fact, because price will hit one or more of the lines on the chart eventually. Question is, which one are you using consistently to make trade decisions on? And, what do these tell you that price does not? I realize you don't only trade using Fibs, but as a tool of many.
Gary
As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
Fib levels would allow me to forecast the movement a lot easier,.... I follow the patterns and their Fib ratio. That makes me determine which Fib level i will take into consideration!! I hope this can answer your question?
Sorry, for the late reply! I was Long ES since 1390.0 my stop @ 1392.00 ...would have been ideal if not for the OPEN being above the CDV levels! and consequently a PIN bar on the 30 min. Otherwise on a strictly Daily sense, we are poised to move up !
10min
30min
CRUDE acted in the like fashion! That is why it is always very critical for me to know where the price is @ open in the relation to the market value!
Key Factor * If the dollar breaks down after lower highs .... ??? Maybe gunning for 200 dma leaving equites room for one last hoorah! before TSHTF
"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
looking actually quite interesting, the 0% upstairs @ 1.3300 is calling it,
therefore i stand corrected about my 30min forecast using the Median Lines!
(the black line is the music 256 HoltEma)
I usually see ES (which is the contract that I'm mostly trade nowadays) in 4 different levels but all intertwine , globex, RTH, daily and IB.
Tracking RTH and globex (overnight) charts I use volume profile to know where the interest is. I'm applying FT's concepts. Tracking daily and IB (Initial Balance) charts I use price alone, high, low, pivots and their extensions.
I rarely trade during globex hours although there are times where some setups are so obvious that I can't resist, but this, happening, is always 1 to 2 hours prior the cash open, when volume start to pick up.
So my daily chart (globex + RTH) shows the following data:
I can see the high, low, open, range and its average for the day, and the same data for the overnight and RTH session. In one chart I have access to all data for fast access.
For today, as usual, we are trading around yesterday's pivot range, not really giving much information at this point. It's 2:48 am in Chicago (9:48 am in Europe).
At this moment we have an indication of a 0.25 points opening gap.
I then have my initial balance chart which it's not finish yet since I haven't updated the study that plots the text so it can have the same look as the daily chart:
It's basically plotting the same data but only for the first hour of the cash session.
I then go to the new portion of my strategy that incorporates FT's volume reading. This stuff really enhanced my strategy. I now am able to see things I never saw before.
So I prefer to separate the reading, overnight and RTH.
Looking to what as been done so far in the overnight... well, let's look at yesterday's session first. We had a LVN between 1394.75 and 1396 which is still on the works since we have tested this area and bounced.
Finally I go to my RTH reading.
I started to copy that overnight LVN into the RTH since I had a felling that would be something that traders would take in consideration. As you can see, they did. That LVN was a resistance and later on a support for the day.
For today I'm still going take notice of Tuesday profile since we still have some LVN's there that can generate good setups. Yesterday's RTH high was against one of those LVN's.
I also have another chart, a composite one but I think that won't give any important information at this point, although those CHVN and CLVN are really good points since prices are always finding some sort of support/resistance around them.
I hope I didn't turn this post to confuse to understand with so many levels to look at.
Regards
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
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Prices came down to 1378.25, hitting second pivot extention. Reacted upward testing by the third time the base of the pivot range.
At the moment we have an indication of a down gap of 3 points.
Looking at the 405 minute chart where we have several composites, and looking at the latest range the ES formed (with the navy color profile) we see a gap between 1371.50 and 1380.
So since the low today so far is at 1378.25, we need to go look at the overnight profile chart and check that gap on April 24.
We can spot a LVN at 1376.75 which can give us some sort of a support. See how that same day, April 24, that same price brought resistance and then support for the rallie on April 25.
So we will look for 1376.75 for a possible long and the overnight high at 1389 for a possible short.
We also need to factor in the first hour of the day but that... well, we need to wait 90 minutes for it
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
I forgot to mention the profile from yesterday with a LVN between 1389.50 and 1390.50. VPOC settled at 1387.25 and this will be the big resistance for today as we started to see looking at what the high of the overnight have done, 3 hits at 1389.
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
So here's the first hour numbers.
We had a mild reaction to the 1376.75 area, never hitting the open price (my target), and came right back down to new lows.
We found support at the first extension level at 1369.79 and we're finding resistance at he first hour lows at 1372.
We had that gap in the 405 min chart at 1371.50 which was closed.
We haven't had a swing higher than 3.25 pts, and most of them can't go higher then 2.75 pts.
Until we can see something above this, all rallies are seen as short entries
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
This Sunday the markets open with a considerable down gap which came down to test the naked VPOC from March 6 in the overnight chart at 1341.75.
Also, this same area has a LVN in the RTH chart between 1342 and 1343.50 formed on March 7.
And again, that same area is a CHVN when looking at the full trading range in which the ES has been trading.
After the initial indication for a down gap around 20 pts the ES has been recovering and at this moment is indicating a down gap of only 4 points.
It's near last Friday's low at 1361.50
Obviously that Friday's low will be the price to watch. Will it be able to return to the previous day's range?
In terms of Friday's profile we have the VPOC at 1366.75 but between the low and the VA base (1361.50 and 1363.25) very low volume was traded, leaving an area of possible rejection when prices and if prices test it.
For now I'll be a seller at the open if a test to 1361.50 to 1363.25 fail.
Overnight's VPOC is at 1357.50 which will be a place for a target. Will see how things develop till there...
As usual, I need to see what the initial balance (first 60 min) will give us.
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
Here's the first 60 minutes of the day and what prices might do and also what last Friday performance based on that same first 60 minute. Pivot range low at 1361.75 which for now is the VA bottom.
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
Yesterday during the RTH session we tested that LVN from March 7 from which we bounced hard. The ES closed near the RTH session but below the overnight session.
Today's overnight session has a downward tone, almost testing yesterday's low.
We tested yesterday's pivot but failed surpassing it, generating new selling wave, bringing new lows for the night.
The obvious support is naturally yesterday's low.
In terms of the overnight profile next support is at March 7 VPOC at 1341.75.
Looking at today's session in a more detailed view, we have a LVN between 1347.75 / 1348.25 which so far is holding prices.
Let's see what is done till the RTH session. If prices cannot go above this then this area will be "transported" to the RTH session and a resolution should be seen.
To finish we look at the composite view.
Yesterday's low touched that CLVN from the range in which it's trading since March 6 which coincides with the CLVN from the range since October 11, 2007. Remember also that this same value coincide with that LVN from March 7.
Things look like it's going to take another chance at that March LVN between 1342.00 / 1343.50.
If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
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@arnie, can you post your MultiCharts session statistics panel tool?
A reminder to everyone - please keep hindsight analysis to a minimum, this thread is not about yesterday or today -- it is about tomorrow. Obviously I know you use hindsight to make a determination about what may come, but lets focus the analysis on the future scenarios that may unfold.
