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As suggested earlier, the price needed to drop in order to find an adequate support to move higher. At this point it remains to be seen if the price will break the Blue Music line and move lower into an AB=CD pattern, or resume it's path to the fulfillment of it's higher purpose! Anything above the 38% looks promisingly Bullish for Wednesday!
The Music Line (black) is waiting @ the 1400 level!!
Well, you guessed it - still bearish on Euro for Thursday.
- Unclear what TL if any is being respected right now
- Series of LH+LL yesterday and today
- If we move above 3150-3178, I would like to see sellers come in strong and trap bulls
- A move below 3050 should be answered with 3025 to 3000, and again if volatility allows then 2980 or so
I will be wrong should price move above 3178 and find new support there (strong buyers), which should then propel us towards 3220 almost instantly, and continue a run up towards 3400. I will be looking for indications I am wrong on Thursday. I am also looking for indications I am right, to add to my short position.
And probably not a surprise I am still bearish SP500 as well.
- Couple trend lines to be aware of, the yellow ones are the shorter time frame recent channel, and the magenta is a much older TL from January
- Consolidation today should lead to a move tomorrow
- So far, bulls unable to break above yellow TL from April 2 high
- The April 2 high is a LH from the March 27 high
- Series of LH+LL since then
- The HH on April 12 was met quickly with strong selling
- Double top of April 12 high on April 17 met with selling, but not much
For these reasons I remain bearish, and am looking for a move to test weekly lows of 1360 for starters, and then a move to 1350 and below. It will depend on the volatility of the day.
For me to be wrong on this short, I am looking for price to breakout above the yellow upper TL, take out the prior HH of 1389 and be met with strong buying taking us back into and above the much older magenta TL channel, which would put us north of 1400.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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Here's what I'm seeing on the ES. Yesterday's failure to break out of current balance should create a tendency to test the lower end of the current balance now (in theory). Today ventured out of balance on a few occasions and was met with selling again. Although we had an inside day, we closed the day right on the IB low which was a great trade from the IB high. Cumulative delta looked like it was dumping pretty hard going into the close as well.
With that being said, I'd like to see a test of the lower balance area now going forward. As always, anything can happen which is why it's important to trade what's given to you in each trading day.
Tomorrow for SP500 I am just looking at my post # 53 for a continuation of (3) and (4). Items (1) and (2) worked perfectly from yesterday's chart for today.
Things to note:
- If we see a lot of buyers come in, then we should see the 1390 level taken out.
- Otherwise this last low of 1365 should be taken out swiftly, as bears show they are in control.
This means that as we pull up towards 1390, I am a seller until I believe I am on the wrong side. And as we move below 1365, I will start to buy back and exit the position, looking at levels around 1358, 1353, and 1346.
Decision time on the Euro. I remain bearish for now, but we are at a decision point.
Do we break above these TL's, onward to 3200, 3300 and 3400? Or are bears in control, and push us back towards the bottom of this recent channel and to 3025 area and perhaps 3000?
- I am bearish until I see strength (buying) and not weakness (selling) at the top of the TL
- I will look to cover some around the bottom of the TL ~3025 area
- If Friday has a lot of volatility, we could see 3300 or 2975, depending on who is in control
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Similar to Big Mike, I'd like to see a continuation of my comments from yesterday with a further test of the lower balance area. Today ended up where I expected. Price stopped once again at the bigger picture bullish trend line but is still respecting it's newly established bearish channel. If we break below the bullish trend line, I'd also like to see a break below the current developing balance area to confirm we are moving lower. One thing to note is when you see big down candles like this in a row, this can result in a big gap down. Not by any means guaranteed but I've seen it many times in the past.
On the SP500 today we had confluence between the rising trendline from April 10th low, touching the April 17th low, and now today's April 19th low --- and also a HVN.
The area between "now" and the HVN is still not fleshed out very much, so we might see a range day or two in this area before making a move.
This morning when I saw yesterday's POC and VAH taken out and met with enthusiastic selling, I felt like I was in a good position with my short. I will look for similar behavior on Friday --- whether we open below Thursday's POC and whether or not any move towards 1385/1390 is met with strong selling again.
