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Tomorrow's chart
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Created: by Big Mike Attachments:100

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Tomorrow's chart

  #41 (permalink)
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For Tuesday on the Euro, I am looking at:

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- An overnight retracement back towards 3100.
- If 3100 holds, a move back to Monday high around 3150 and then to 3200 if buyers come in strong.
- If 3100 breaks, move to 3075 for sure, followed by 3025 area.
- Depending on day range, if we see bearish day then 2980 to 2970 are definitely areas of interest. Not sure we will get there, depends on daily volatility.

I was surprised by the quick move upward on the Euro today. I still believe the short looks like the better trade so long as we don't make a HH above 3218 followed by HL above 3140. If we do see this HH+HL and see strong buyers at 3150 then a move to 3300 depending on the day's range and volatility/news. And I will have been stopped out.

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  #42 (permalink)
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For Tuesday on SP500:

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I am a seller right now.

- Looking for bigger picture downward move to resume
- If we break 1375 I will look to be add more to my short on a fake breakout "spring"
- Looking for 1360 to breakdown quickly to 1353 area.

I will be watching the 1353 area closely to see if some buyers step in. I think it is likely, but I am thinking it will just be a series of LH+LL, so if that pattern holds I will look to be a seller on the retracement LH.

I am not sure if the day range will support it, but a move to 1346 area would be next area of interest.

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Mike

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  #43 (permalink)
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I am still bearish the Euro.

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- Looking for this wedge to breakdown immediately
- Looking for yet another test of 3100
- Looking for breakdown below 3100, quickly moving to 3075 and then 3030 or so
- Next area of interest is around 2980-3010
- Followed by 2950 if the daily range supports it

From a profile point of view, you can see some confluence with these numbers. They are combination of price S/R and profile VA and POC levels.

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Now, should I be wrong on my bearish sentiment, then we should see a break above 3180 met with enthusiastic buyers, quickly propelling price above 3220. I will be stopped should this happen.

Mike

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  #44 (permalink)
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I am still bearish the SP500. Are you? What is your view, please post and share.

The break of the yellow trendline was met with strong buyers, forcing me to get out of my short position. But the bulls were unable to give us a new HH over the 4/12 high.

- If bulls are unable to break 1389 enthusiastically, I remain bearish
- A retest of 1375 seems very high
- A move back to 1360 is the next area of interest

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Should I be wrong with my bearish sentiment, then we will see strong buyers stepping in at 1389 and we should break 1400.

Here is the profile chart for completeness.

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Mike

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  #45 (permalink)
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I agree with your views on both the ES and the Euro, I could post a chart but it would be redundant in this case and yours are much prettier anyway .....

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  #46 (permalink)
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ES, my 2 cents

looking for the price to drop first to 1377.50 or 1375.25!

....however, if the price does not drop down but it keeps keeps moving (afterhours) upwards north of 1388.50
then it needs to cement itself against 1386.50 in order to go higher!

Either way, we are in for a very nice bullish move to fullfill this bearish pattern!


P.S.
IF the price breaks the 1360 level, then we are in for a pretty sweet AB=CD pattern!


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Last edited by Gabriyele; April 17th, 2012 at 07:55 PM.
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  #47 (permalink)
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Just my observations on the day for the ES. The market appeared to get a bid during the EU session which intensified during the RTH session. We opened right below yesterday's high where there was an attempt to "contain" the market from there but as soon as price retraced back down to the ETH session vwap and bounced, a flurry of buying came into the market taking price all the way back up into the upper balance area which has been an area of resistance recently.

By looking at the cumulative delta and the amount of selling that took place at the high's, I would venture to say that today was a pump and dump. Selling pressure really was exhausted which stopped at an important bullish trend line yesterday which was a perfect opportunity to pump this thing higher today. Going into the close, we had more selling and price was once again rejected from that upper balance area. It now appears that we are establishing a range/balance area with the high so far being today at 1388.75 and the low from 4/10/12 at 1352.50 giving us a balance area of 36.25 points which is slightly tighter than the previous by 11.25 points or roughly 24%. Based on this second rejection, I can definitely see a test of the lower end of the current developing balance area with the potential of further rejection. This is the first time we've established a balance lower than the previous which could signal a major momentum change.

Attached Thumbnails
Tomorrow's chart-es-06-12-4-momentum-no-gap-4_17_2012-cd.jpg   Tomorrow's chart-es-06-12-daily-10_18_2011-4_17_2012.jpg   Tomorrow's chart-es-06-12-4-momentum-no-gap-4_17_2012-selling.jpg  
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  #48 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I am still bearish the SP500. Are you? What is your view, please post and share.

The break of the yellow trendline was met with strong buyers, forcing me to get out of my short position. But the bulls were unable to give us a new HH over the 4/12 high.

- If bulls are unable to break 1389 enthusiastically, I remain bearish
- A retest of 1375 seems very high
- A move back to 1360 is the next area of interest

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Should I be wrong with my bearish sentiment, then we will see strong buyers stepping in at 1389 and we should break 1400.

Here is the profile chart for completeness.

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Mike

we may have ran into some supply into end of day on the spy. Euro Im hoping will get a little rally so I can get short again. althou it did get into some sellers. will see how it goes no bias at all.

Attached Thumbnails
Tomorrow's chart-spy-zones.png   Tomorrow's chart-euro.png  
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  #49 (permalink)
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Dax Wednesday

Dax had a strong long move on Tuesday - so my view on Monday for Wednesday is completely
obsolete.
A new - and smaller short move - is plotted in the chart.
Price in the daily chart has reached the upper boundary of the Kumo again - which signifies
a resistance - so price should fall again Wednesday. How much is not easy to define but in
the attached chart my view is on 6700 (POC).
Interesting anyway.

GFIs1

PS: as my mechanical system for the DAX does not allow a trade after a rally of more than
150 POINTS on the previous day - there is NO trade proposal for Wednesday.

Attached Thumbnails
Tomorrow's chart-daxtuesdayupmove.png  

Last edited by GFIs1; April 18th, 2012 at 03:17 PM. Reason: word POINTS
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  #50 (permalink)
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MPC minutes come out over night which should move markets one way or another...

shorts line in the sand @ 1394ish

* If Bull flag plays out , target 1412

* If resistance holds test trendline break and or bottom of lower box

** possible dragon pattern http://www.surinotes.com/Tradestation/articles/suriDragon.pdf

support @ 1367
Resistance@ 1396.5
61.8 highs to lows @ 1394 (line in the sand)
pivot @ 1378

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Last edited by GridKing; April 18th, 2012 at 03:34 AM.
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