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Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
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This is what I'm looking at on Crude Oil. The idea seems to fit in with that of equities. Crude has been resting/finding support on the bottom of the current bullish (orange outline) and bearish (red outline) channels. From a bigger picture perspective CL has remained within a macro bearish channel with the market banging it's head on the top of the channel back on Feb. 24th, 2012. Since that point, the market has been "drifting" lower but still remaining within it's micro bullish and bearish channels.
My thoughts from here now that we've had our fifth day of support is we move up into the mid-point of the bearish channel which will fill the gap from 4/3/12 with the potential of even moving to the top of the channel and the potential to break out higher and test the top of the bearish macro channel.
In order to achieve this however, the market has a lot of work to do. By looking at a volume profile chart, you can see that we fallen below the area we've been balancing in since the end of Feb '12. We've now dipped down into the previous balance area which is a huge acceptance area and are having a hard time getting above that balance area's value area high (VAH). For example, today's move higher still couldn't achieve a close higher out of that balance area. Going into tomorrow, I'd like to see another test of that VAH with an attempt higher but we'll have to see what kind of open we get.
In any event, we should always remain remotely unbiased and trade what our charts are telling us as a lot can happen overnight. Especially with how things are currently. A case lower would be continued failure to get up out of the VAH and trend lower finally breaking through the supportive lower channel trend lines. I could see us run into the upper 90's in a hurry should that happen.
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Rather than posting guesswork for tomorrow, first I'd be more interested in developing a structured, probabilistic methodology for estimating tomorrow's price path and only then forward test to see how it works. (i.e. a definite model for predicting tomorrow's price path). Need to do more thinking about that.
"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Given the range we've seen today, I feel that we will likely be in a tight range on Friday, or that we'll see a small decline back towards Wednesday's levels and Thursday's lows.
I am not expecting to see us move above 1400, so if that happens, I will be caught by surprise.
Mike
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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I agree with Big Mike on this one. Today's move higher was perfect and well anticipated on the ES. Just to compliment what Mike posted, today's action took price right to the bottom of the previous balance area value area low (VAL). This is also halfway back from the high of 1417.75. Additionally, we are now sitting right in the middle of the bearish channel (red outline). Should momentum truly be turning, this move higher should be sold into and take us back to into the lower level of today's range.
Of course there is the risk of the market moving a bit higher as we need to remember that equities are now an official central planning tool, lol!
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Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
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To follow up from my post regarding CL yesterday, this market moved right up to the middle of the bearish channel (red outline) and stopped literally to the tick. This filled 4/3/12's gap. Price then retraced back down to yesterday's high and ripped right back up going into the close.
Where we're sitting now, tomorrow could see another test of the bearish channel's mid-point with the potential of breaking higher. Failure at the mid-point or to even get there could have us test yesterday's high once again which was a significant resistance area for the past few days. One other thing to note is we finally got a close up and out of that large balance area and could fast track back up into the previous balance area based on the low volume between the two balance levels.
Ultimately, I'd still like to see a test of the top of the bearish channel which will fill the gap up at the 107 area. Then again, not all gaps are meant to be filled. If equities get smoked, CL will most likely be right there with it. If equities rally again, count on the energy complex going right along with it. Of course, equities only rally on potential Fed easing. The Fed's hands may be tied now because of this tight correlation. But that's a discussion for another thread.
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