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Tomorrow's chart
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Tomorrow's chart

  #91 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Where was your entry?

On the falling trendline centered between the falling yellow trendlines and resistance lines (magenta) (0.9890)

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EDIT: Part #1 filled @ 0.9861, Part #2 at BE tentative target @ 0.9843

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Last edited by trendisyourfriend; May 2nd, 2012 at 03:37 PM.
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  #92 (permalink)
in a meditative state...
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arnie's Avatar
 
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I usually see ES (which is the contract that I'm mostly trade nowadays) in 4 different levels but all intertwine , globex, RTH, daily and IB.

Tracking RTH and globex (overnight) charts I use volume profile to know where the interest is. I'm applying FT's concepts. Tracking daily and IB (Initial Balance) charts I use price alone, high, low, pivots and their extensions.

I rarely trade during globex hours although there are times where some setups are so obvious that I can't resist, but this, happening, is always 1 to 2 hours prior the cash open, when volume start to pick up.

So my daily chart (globex + RTH) shows the following data:
I can see the high, low, open, range and its average for the day, and the same data for the overnight and RTH session. In one chart I have access to all data for fast access.

For today, as usual, we are trading around yesterday's pivot range, not really giving much information at this point. It's 2:48 am in Chicago (9:48 am in Europe).
At this moment we have an indication of a 0.25 points opening gap.

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I then have my initial balance chart which it's not finish yet since I haven't updated the study that plots the text so it can have the same look as the daily chart:
It's basically plotting the same data but only for the first hour of the cash session.

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I then go to the new portion of my strategy that incorporates FT's volume reading. This stuff really enhanced my strategy. I now am able to see things I never saw before.
So I prefer to separate the reading, overnight and RTH.
Looking to what as been done so far in the overnight... well, let's look at yesterday's session first. We had a
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Finally I go to my RTH reading.
I started to copy that overnight LVN into the RTH since I had a felling that would be something that traders would take in consideration. As you can see, they did. That LVN was a
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For today I'm still going take notice of Tuesday profile since we still have some LVN's there that can generate good setups. Yesterday's RTH high was against one of those LVN's.
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I also have another chart, a composite one but I think that won't give any important information at this point, although those CHVN and CLVN are really good points since prices are always finding some sort of support/resistance around them.

I hope I didn't turn this post to confuse to understand with so many levels to look at.

Regards

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  #93 (permalink)
in a meditative state...
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So this is what the first hour gave us and is projecting....

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Pivot range coincides with Tuesday overnight LVN shown in the charts above. Can it go higher?

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  #94 (permalink)
in a meditative state...
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arnie's Avatar
 
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Nonfarm payrolls was just released.

Prices came down to 1378.25, hitting second pivot extention. Reacted upward testing by the third time the base of the pivot range.
At the moment we have an indication of a down gap of 3 points.

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Looking at the 405 minute chart where we have several composites, and looking at the latest range the ES formed (with the navy color profile) we see a gap between 1371.50 and 1380.

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So since the low today so far is at 1378.25, we need to go look at the overnight profile chart and check that gap on April 24.
We can spot a LVN at 1376.75 which can give us some sort of a support. See how that same day, April 24, that same price brought resistance and then support for the rallie on April 25.

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So we will look for 1376.75 for a possible long and the overnight high at 1389 for a possible short.

We also need to factor in the first hour of the day but that... well, we need to wait 90 minutes for it

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  #95 (permalink)
in a meditative state...
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arnie's Avatar
 
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I forgot to mention the profile from yesterday with a LVN between 1389.50 and 1390.50.
VPOC settled at 1387.25 and this will be the big resistance for today as we started to see looking at what the high of the overnight have done, 3 hits at 1389.

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  #96 (permalink)
in a meditative state...
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So here's the first hour numbers.
We had a mild reaction to the 1376.75 area, never hitting the open price (my target), and came right back down to new lows.

We found support at the first extension level at 1369.79 and we're finding resistance at he first hour lows at 1372.

We had that gap in the 405 min chart at 1371.50 which was closed.

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We haven't had a swing higher than 3.25 pts, and most of them can't go higher then 2.75 pts.
Until we can see something above this, all rallies are seen as short entries

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  #97 (permalink)
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This Sunday the markets open with a considerable down gap which came down to test the naked VPOC from March 6 in the overnight chart at 1341.75.

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Also, this same area has a LVN in the RTH chart between 1342 and 1343.50 formed on March 7.

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And again, that same area is a CHVN when looking at the full trading range in which the ES has been trading.

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After the initial indication for a down gap around 20 pts the ES has been recovering and at this moment is indicating a down gap of only 4 points.
It's near last Friday's low at 1361.50

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Obviously that Friday's low will be the price to watch. Will it be able to return to the previous day's range?
In terms of Friday's profile we have the VPOC at 1366.75 but between the low and the VA base (1361.50 and 1363.25) very low volume was traded, leaving an area of possible rejection when prices and if prices test it.

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For now I'll be a seller at the open if a test to 1361.50 to 1363.25 fail.
Overnight's VPOC is at 1357.50 which will be a place for a target. Will see how things develop till there...

As usual, I need to see what the initial balance (first 60 min) will give us.

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  #98 (permalink)
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Here's the first 60 minutes of the day and what prices might do and also what last Friday performance based on that same first 60 minute.
Pivot range low at 1361.75 which for now is the VA bottom.

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  #99 (permalink)
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arnie's Avatar
 
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Yesterday during the RTH session we tested that LVN from March 7 from which we bounced hard. The ES closed near the RTH session but below the overnight session.

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Today's overnight session has a downward tone, almost testing yesterday's low.
We tested yesterday's pivot but failed surpassing it, generating new selling wave, bringing new lows for the night.
The obvious support is naturally yesterday's low.

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In terms of the overnight profile next support is at March 7 VPOC at 1341.75.

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Looking at today's session in a more detailed view, we have a LVN between 1347.75 / 1348.25 which so far is holding prices.
Let's see what is done till the RTH session. If prices cannot go above this then this area will be "transported" to the RTH session and a resolution should be seen.

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To finish we look at the composite view.
Yesterday's low touched that CLVN from the range in which it's trading since March 6 which coincides with the CLVN from the range since October 11, 2007. Remember also that this same value coincide with that LVN from March 7.

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Things look like it's going to take another chance at that March LVN between 1342.00 / 1343.50.

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  #100 (permalink)
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@arnie, can you post your MultiCharts session statistics panel tool?

A reminder to everyone - please keep hindsight analysis to a minimum, this thread is not about yesterday or today -- it is about tomorrow. Obviously I know you use hindsight to make a determination about what may come, but lets focus the analysis on the future scenarios that may unfold.

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