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Are markets random?
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Created: by Big Mike Attachments:11

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Are markets random?

  #81 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Market - analogies

Analogy

1) a river takes the way of the least resistance to find the way form the valley to the ocean

Analogy

2) to find the easiest way to find a path from valley one to valley two is a process made by man
to optimize used energy to pass - normally by the easiest pass..
.. unless man made a tunnel :-)

In words of the trader: Passing from level A to level B (direction not important here) some other
people made already an attempt.
So: Follow them

GFIs1

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  #82 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
You can make money in a random market ... as long as it isn't a chaotic market .

If statistics show the market travels an average of 15 ticks after a reversal with an average of 8 ticks of "heat" an ATM strategy of a 15 tick target and an 8 tick stop could make money.

If statistics show that, then the market isn't random.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #83 (permalink)
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"Pseudo-random" "-Mark Jurik

"A Jedi's strength flows from the force."
-Yoda
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  #84 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
If statistics show that, then the market isn't random.

ThatManFromTexas
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You can make money in a random market ... as long as it isn't a chaotic market .

If statistics show the market travels an average of 15 ticks after a reversal with an average of 8 ticks of "heat" an ATM strategy of a 15 tick target and an 8 tick stop could make money.

....an ATM strategy of a 15 tick target and an 8 tick stop could make money....

won't the price have to go to 16 tics and 9 tics respectively for a trader to see actual profit....

well, ok, ok.... if you say it is just 15 and 8, i'll take both also, anytime.... LOL cheers.

have a wonderful weekend everyone.

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  #85 (permalink)
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Poll closed, results as follows:

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  #86 (permalink)
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I just read the following passage from John Sweeney's Campaign Trading and it struck me as the most relevant summary piece I have ever read on the subject:
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  #87 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
I just read the following passage from John Sweeney's Campaign Trading and it struck me as the most relevant summary piece I have ever read on the subject:
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So, that means stops for swing traders at main historical key levels are a good thing. And, scalpers don't have to worry about stops as long as they trade somewhere in the middle of 2 key levels. Seems to re-enforce the results of your previous R/R study.

Cheers!

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  #88 (permalink)
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pls do let us know....


aligator View Post
So, that means stops for swing traders at main historical key levels are a good thing. And, scalpers don't have to worry about stops as long as they trade somewhere in the middle of 2 key levels. Seems to re-enforce the results of your previous R/R study.

Cheers!

@Anagami

@aligator

would you be kind enough to let us know what the results are, pls;

after you have tested this theoretical exposition out in your live/sim trading?

often wonder how close some theoretical expositions/equations are, to real life application?

in terms of statistic application, mostly it seems to work out well, just in terms of statistics. however in real life application it might seem ridiculous and way out of reality; such as, the average household in new york city consisted of 2.5 person, for example. cheers and happy trading everyone.

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