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Are markets random?
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Are markets random?

  #61 (permalink)
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mrphr View Post
Yes, it is manipulated.

Thanks to the FED, ECB, IMF, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays... also CME [Chicago Mafia Exchange]; And all their "friends" which I did not mention...

But do not worry, you just need to learn how to beat the devil at his own game.

I prefer to join them, I've tried beating them and ended up beaten.

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  #62 (permalink)
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rickey View Post
I prefer to join them, I've tried beating them and ended up beaten.

How exactly do you join them? We would all like to know

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  #63 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
How exactly do you join them? We would all like to know

Randomly... otherwise it would be or

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #64 (permalink)
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Market price activities compose of local randomness and global determinism

The question discussed here whether markets are random or not is a little too wide, any exchange market itself should be treated as a system with certain frame works such as open and close time, up and down limit rules, tick size etc., within which price roam around.
Therefore I think I like to narrow it down toIs price activity in the market random?」.
And offer my opinion below.

1) Price ticks are random.
2) Price distributions are not.

First one I call it local randomness. It can be up or down or the same from previous tick, it is similar to each individual human-being; it can be a man or a woman, an Asian or an African.

The second one is called global determinism. With different figures, any normal human being would have a head with two arms and two legs and can’t be mistaken as ape. In fact, explain it with chaos theory, there are always eternal fractals which appear in form of equilateral triangles in the price distributions. It is easy for trader to visualize it.

Most of all, any market activity is a never ending cycle between randomness and determinism.


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  #65 (permalink)
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You can make money in a random market ... as long as it isn't a chaotic market .

If statistics show the market travels an average of 15 ticks after a reversal with an average of 8 ticks of "heat" an ATM strategy of a 15 tick target and an 8 tick stop could make money.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #66 (permalink)
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Price distribution is not random and predictable

Using price distribution determinism to forcast CIFF chinese index futures on 4/9/2012
Target zone paved and predict price reached on 4/13/2012

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Are markets random?-ciff0406-1.gif  
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  #67 (permalink)
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John Chen View Post
Using price distribution determinism to forcast CIFF chinese index futures on 4/9/2012
Target zone paved and predict price reached on 4/13/2012

@John Chen

Nice charts.

I have never been able to understand how to use them.

But they look very nice and you obviously have learned to use them effectively.

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #68 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
You can make money in a random market ... as long as it isn't a chaotic market .

It's the other way around! From chaos order emerges...


ThatManFromTexas View Post
@John Chen

Nice charts.

I have never been able to understand how to use them.

But they look very nice and you obviously have learned to use them effectively.

He's only learned how to market them effectively:

http://www.j-chart.at/team_en.php

Is this also him?
Forex Trading System | Powerful Forex Trading System That Really Works

@John Chen : Please inform @Big Mike of your vendor status!

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  #69 (permalink)
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John Chen View Post
Using price distribution determinism to forcast CIFF chinese index futures on 4/9/2012
Target zone paved and predict price reached on 4/13/2012

What time frame is this chart? Is it a volume profile chart? Looks like you could just follow the point of control at the tip of the right facing triangles and trade that when it reverses direction.

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  #70 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
What time frame is this chart? Is it a volume profile chart? Looks like you could just follow the point of control at the tip of the right facing triangles and trade that when it reverses direction.

Didn't you read my post?

They're called J-charts:

|| J-Chart™ || Charting Markets into the Future. Index Futures, Forex, Stocks, Bonds

An Introduction To J-Charting

There's also this:
https://futures.io/trading-journals/15320-price-forecasting-chaos.html

It's basically non-gaussian MP, but he didn't get the distribution right. At least it's not fine-tuned enough to warrant keeping it for himself.

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