Are markets random? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Are markets random?
Updated: Views / Replies:9,139 / 87
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:11

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 11  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are markets random?

  #51 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,229 received


ThatManFromTexas View Post
If you're making money .... it doesn't matter if the market is random or not .....

LOL.

Except, that it really does. Because of something called Luck.

When someone says they have a winning method, but that method only consists of a very tiny result/data set, then it is very easy for this to be luck, or curve fitting, or cherry picked, or or or or.

But a lot of people don't recognize this, or dismiss it, or simply don't even know to look for it.

So I think it is actually important to come up with a statistically important way of looking at your trading (ie: in terms of a large forward tested result set) before making any assumptions about whether or not you actually have an edge.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #52 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Oslo, Norway
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: CQG, Excel
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Lornz's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,198 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 500 given, 1,235 received

It's important to make distinction between a random walk with and without drift, and a deterministic trend.

I think this article gives a decent overview:
Introduction To Stationary And Non-Stationary Processes

Attached Thumbnails
Are markets random?-random_walk.pdf  
Reply With Quote
 
  #53 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,276 received


It seems to me that everyone participating in the discussion is on the same side, which is the markets are not random. So, who here believes that they are random?

Reply With Quote
 
  #54 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston,Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF
 
ThatManFromTexas's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,302 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 1,208 given, 4,293 received


Big Mike View Post
LOL.

Except, that it really does. Because of something called Luck.

When someone says they have a winning method, but that method only consists of a very tiny result/data set, then it is very easy for this to be luck, or curve fitting, or cherry picked, or or or or.

But a lot of people don't recognize this, or dismiss it, or simply don't even know to look for it.

So I think it is actually important to come up with a statistically important way of looking at your trading (ie: in terms of a large forward tested result set) before making any assumptions about whether or not you actually have an edge.

Mike

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity....

If you can repeat the action consistently ... it ain't luck...

MLB pitchers throw random pitches .... yet some batters have consistently higher batting averages...

With cards dealt randomly ...different poker players dealt the same hand ... have varying levels of success with it...




monpere View Post
It seems to me that everyone participating in the discussion is on the same side, which is the markets are not random. So, who here believes that they are random?

Depends on your definition of random.

Price of Corn ...

If adequate rain falls... corn flourishes ... corn price goes down...

If drought sets in ... corn falters ... corn price goes up...

If other countries raise tariffs on imported corn ... corn price goes down

If Congress increases subsidies for Ethanol... corn price goes up

If Congress repeals subsidies for Ethanol... corn price goes down

If corn fields get flooded... corn price goes up

If farmers switch animal feed from corn to soybeans ... corn price goes down

If huge speculators take huge long positions in corn ... corn price goes up

If huge speculators dump huge positions in corn ... corn price goes down

If huge speculators cover huge short positions in corn ... corn price goes up

In spite of any of these scenarios or combinations of these scenarios ... if enough traders buy because they believe price will go up ... price will go up

In spite of any of these scenarios or combinations of these scenarios ... if enough traders sell because they believe price will go down ... price will go down

You cannot foresee any of these scenarios or combinations of these scenarios ...

You cannot accurately and consistently predict long term price due to these unknowns....


Is the price of corn random?

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Reply With Quote
 
  #55 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received

How many trades do we need to know if we are trading with an edge

Not sure if it makes sense but i came up with this:

Let's suppose i won 120 trades out of my last 200 trades with a 55% expectation.

Number of trade: 200
Odds of winning: 55%
Odds of losing: 45%
1 standard deviation: 7.03562364 << SQRT(200 * .55 * .45)
expected wins: 110
actual wins: 120
wins over expectation: 10
Standard Deviation for this event: 1.421338109 << 10/7.03562364
Chance of randomness: 1 out of 13 << 1 / (1-NORMDIST(1.421338109))

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #56 (permalink)
Elite Member
manchester, england
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: pfg best
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 289 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 285 given, 393 received

The markets are not random

The markets are carefully managed and controlled to separate the uninformed from their cash, and to cause as much pain, to as many people, as possible.

Another way of saying this is - 'MANIPULATION'.

And long may it continue.

Just my opinion. Don't crucify me if you disagree.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mrmuggins for this post:
 
  #57 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OA
Favorite Futures: What Moves
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 474 given, 1,398 received


mrmuggins View Post
The markets are carefully managed and controlled to separate the uninformed from their cash, and to cause as much pain, to as many people, as possible.

Another way of saying this is - 'MANIPULATION'.

And long may it continue.

Just my opinion. Don't crucify me if you disagree.

In NLP, you learn not to use ugly words like manipulation, and use words like influence instead.

Then you realize that everything influences everything else.... and that's ok.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Anagami for this post:
 
  #58 (permalink)
Elite Member
manchester, england
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker/Data: pfg best
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 289 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 285 given, 393 received


Anagami View Post
In NLP, you learn not to use ugly words like manipulation, and use words like influence instead.

Then you realize that everything influences everything else.... and that's ok.

One man's Influence is another man's manipulation. Just semantics. I am a plain speaking guy who calls a spade - ' a spade', not an implement for digging turf.

Maybe it's just my age but the current politically correct speak is too modern for me.

Reply With Quote
 
  #59 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: OA
Favorite Futures: What Moves
 
Anagami's Avatar
 
Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 474 given, 1,398 received


mrmuggins View Post
One man's Influence is another man's manipulation. Just semantics. I am a plain speaking guy who calls a spade - ' a spade', not an implement for digging turf.

Maybe it's just my age but the current politically correct speak is too modern for me.

I don't care about political correctness.

I just do not choose to see the world in dark hues, that's all.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
Reply With Quote
 
  #60 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: .
Favorite Futures: .
 
Posts: 162 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 46 given, 107 received



mrmuggins View Post
The markets are carefully managed and controlled to separate the uninformed from their cash, and to cause as much pain, to as many people, as possible.

Another way of saying this is - 'MANIPULATION'.

And long may it continue.

Just my opinion. Don't crucify me if you disagree.

Yes, it is manipulated.

Thanks to the FED, ECB, IMF, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays... also CME [Chicago Mafia Exchange]; And all their "friends" which I did not mention...

But do not worry, you just need to learn how to beat the devil at his own game.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Are markets random?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Random Line Theory Big Mike Traders Hideout 358 July 15th, 2017 12:16 AM
The Erratic Method (random entries) Big Mike Elite Automated NinjaTrader Trading 58 November 16th, 2014 07:25 AM
Random Data Generator rounder8 The Elite Circle 80 June 22nd, 2013 05:38 PM
Random Thoughts.... AynRandFan Traders Hideout 7 July 24th, 2011 06:52 AM
question on generating random identifier tortexal NinjaTrader Programming 0 July 9th, 2009 03:00 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:47 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.160.245.121