Are markets random? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Are markets random?
Updated: Views / Replies:8,725 / 87
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:11

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 11  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Are markets random?

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston,Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF
 
ThatManFromTexas's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,302 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 1,208 given, 4,293 received

To the uninitiated....

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


This market looks random....

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


But proper analytic indicators eliminates the noise....

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Making traders happy...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Reply With Quote
 
  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,667 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,714 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Big Mike View Post
Some have said that HFT is generating a lot of "noise".

Let me ask you: what is the difference between noise and randomness?

BTW, I believe markets are not random.

Mike

There is no such thing as 'noise' in the market.

There is just trading.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston,Tx
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF
 
ThatManFromTexas's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,302 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 1,208 given, 4,293 received



DionysusToast View Post
There is no such thing as 'noise' in the market.

There is just trading.

I beg to differ....


I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to ThatManFromTexas for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,667 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,714 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ThatManFromTexas View Post
I beg to differ....


I hope that was just for show.

If not, we are all doomed...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,667 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,714 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

When I say there's no noise, I think it's important to differentiate between 'random' and 'predictable'.

Something that is non-random is not necessarily predictable.

Noise is mostly referred to as 'one level lower than I look'. Well - I look at the lowest level - bids, offers and trades.

None if it is random, everyone trades for a reason. It's just that often it is directionless and unpredictable.

I like the analogy of people walking in a shopping mall. Most of the time, you could never predict where everyone will be in 15 minutes time. Then again, right the fire alarm and you'll be a lot more accurate in your predictions.

Watching the Tape/DOM, I don't see any of it as noise. I just see it as chaotic or not chaotic. As predictable or not predictable.

Perhaps it's just semantics. Still, I think the whole 'noise' term usually means - "you look at too low a timeframe - that's just noise"

Whereas the lowest timeframe - the Tape is something that can be used with success.

Reply With Quote
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GridKing's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,650 since May 2011
Thanks: 588 given, 877 received

Random Walk versus a Non-Random Walk - This article describes the Random Walk Theory of financial markets and its counter part, the Non-Random Walk Theory

StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

heading chart school

in table of contents

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GridKing for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: .
Favorite Futures: .
 
Posts: 162 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 46 given, 107 received


ThatManFromTexas View Post

Making traders happy...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I like her.


Last edited by mrphr; April 10th, 2012 at 07:24 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: .
Favorite Futures: .
 
Posts: 162 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 46 given, 107 received

If you believe markets are random; You will be fooled by randomness.

Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,214 received


DionysusToast View Post
There is no such thing as 'noise' in the market.

There is just trading.

I completely agree. I don't agree with the person who said HFT is the root of all evil (paraphrasing), although you can check back with me in a few more years and see if I've changed my mind (the way we are heading).

But for lack of a better word, there is "noise" in simple terms. For example, if you are Buffalo hunting, and ants are crawling on your feet -- the ants don't really interest you but may distract you, thereby creating "noise".

A lot of people think they are hunting Buffalo, but their charts are aimed directly at the ants. For these guys, I always say their chart is too small (timeframe) and they can't see the bigger picture, and are getting whiplash from all the ants attacking them.

But to go to your point, I have never once looked at any of my charts and said "damn, the HFT bots!!!!". LOL. Perhaps the flash crash, but that is it.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received



monpere View Post
To the hourly chart trader, the 1 min is noise. To the yearly chart trader, the daily chart is noise. Noise is a market fractal level that is beyond what a particular trader's methodology takes advantage of. I trade what most typical traders consider noise. The difference is, there are patterns in noise, there are none in randomness.

I think it goes deeper than this. A roulette wheel produces patterns (series of Black/Red) which can easily trick anyone into believing they are frequent enough to take advantage of. The question you need to answer is what makes patterns different on the markets versus patterns created on a roulette wheel?

Here are 100 decisions taken from random.org where Black = -1 and Red +1. Can you see some recurring patterns similar to what can be seen in the markets? If you answer yes then what makes them different?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Are markets random?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Random Line Theory Big Mike Traders Hideout 358 July 15th, 2017 12:16 AM
The Erratic Method (random entries) Big Mike Elite Automated NinjaTrader Trading 58 November 16th, 2014 07:25 AM
Random Data Generator rounder8 The Elite Circle 80 June 22nd, 2013 05:38 PM
Random Thoughts.... AynRandFan Traders Hideout 7 July 24th, 2011 06:52 AM
question on generating random identifier tortexal NinjaTrader Programming 0 July 9th, 2009 03:00 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:38 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.132.197