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The trading realist
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The trading realist

  #1 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
DetroitMIUSA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 193 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 58 received

The trading realist

This thread is for the newbies who come here wide eyed and with grandiose ideas.

Note to Mike: I put this here because I thought it was the best place for it. I'm certain you will move it as you see fit. You usually do.

Trading IS NOT a get rich quick scheme!! Just the opposite matter of fact. If you haven't done your work.

There are only 3 decision's you have to make buy sell or stay out. Each of these is very important in it's own right and knowing when to do or not do each of these is the mark of a good trader.

There are only 5 outcomes that can be realized from trading:

Make a lot of money
Make a little bit of money
Break even
Lose a little money
Lose a lot of money

3 decisions 5 outcomes. Simple really.

Here's where it gets raw.

Do your education, do your research, trade sim, trade sim, did I say trade sim? Then get a mentor who is a trader who is/has been CP who trades live with real money every single day and makes a living by doing it. Anyone else is still a researcher.

In this entire website there maybe 5 of these very traders. Choose who you speak to wisely. A lot of people claim to know a lot of things but it all comes down to who trades real money and makes real money.

Lots of indicators flying around and advice being given but at the end of the session if you have not made money then it's a moot point isn't it. It's all fine and dandy until you try to use indicators or do something someone else does or has told you worked (for them) and you are on the wrong side of it going hey WTF?? You better get a clue!! It's what works FOR YOU. It's you being right and being right at the right time that's going to be your success. No one is giving that to you. YOU earn it.

Most of the very very rich traders are not in these places and would never think of sharing their edge. It's what made them rich for crap sake. There ARE however people who like to "give" you "free" stuff as their "gift" to you for signing up for there spam machine. These people don't make there money from trading let alone trading what they sell. John Paul, Joe James, Barry Burns are some examples. I'll get to some of the posers that Ninja Trader partners with another time in this thread.

All the talk about trading is fun and everything however it's talk. TALK TALK TALK
When you pull the trigger on that first live trade and your hand is instantly shaking like your a 5 year old with parkinson's and your heart feels like it's going to come right out of your chest you'll know that all the friggin talk on this website or any other one for that matter can't prepare you for that.

I'd say if someone here is telling you hey do this or hey try that. Go ahead however do it on sim and if you are wanting to mentor with someone who is charging you I would be asking them to see a live real money trading result sheet from their broker (account #blocked out of course) and then call the broker and follow up.

The fact is if people giving advice about trading and trading psychology who are not trading real money in the live market everyday and are not consistently profitable doing it? Well you figure it out!!

Taking advice without follow up and asking questions is a sure recipe for doom. Let's not go there.

Dunno about you but I am in trading to MAKE MONEY!!! OH yeah and have fun too..

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
DetroitMIUSA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 193 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 58 received

NT partners?


OK now I will get to the liars oppsy I mean partners that NT works with. I'm going to speak of one in particular in this part of the thread. There is a scammer called "SuperScalper" on NT youtube channel claiming they have 90% accuracy. 90%. I was like say what??? Not even HFT, or SM banks, funds, who have a pimply faced savant geek coder slinging code 24/7n have 90% accuracy.

I was so incensed by this I send a scathing email to NT calling them out on it. The response from NT was that they "don't ever verify the background or the validity of the claims of their partners".

Well that is just nuts to me. I would never buy or even consider buying any software, indicators, or whatever without some type of verification. That's just me. I don't trust anyone. I trust me that's who.

How the scammers get around having to give you your money back on their junk scamware is that they say in the small print WHICH YOU BETTER READ NOW after this. " To get a full refund you have to be able to prove that the junkware did not work and caused you to lose money by providing a log of all your trades including all entries and exits.

I like NT so far however their business practices in regards to the "partners" is sub poor at best and no one in their right mind should ever purchase anything from the partner companies that NT touts without having something in writing from the company saying they give an UNCONDITIONAL money back guarantee no questions asked.

You would be better off hiring the pimply faced savant to code up your own badass system with an edge. Will you ever get 90%? I would bet you my Ferrari,my Benz and my G5, that you will never achieve 90%. EVER. 70% is a stretch for a retail trader at best and that's someone in the live market with a 100k account trading for perhaps 10 or more years.

BEWARE of the Ninja Trader "partners". Make sure you due your due diligence BEFORE you buy ANYTHING.

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  #4 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
DetroitMIUSA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 193 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 58 received

Are you losing money?

Just read a thread where the title is The market is not to get you.. OF course it is. If they can see both sides and you hit the order entry button and your stop goes in with the order your on there screen at that point. Then they are saying and laughing hey there's trader X's stop. Look the dummy only made it 12 ticks. Let's just go down there 14 ticks then turn it around and go back. FUN FUN FUN

They have 100 million+ dollars of power. You dig. You don't. Well hell I know I sure as hell don't!!!

I'd say smart traders don't care why they're doing they just care about when they're doing it and if you can jump on they're back you can make money. All your hind site is BS site. What matters is when you are in that trade and you have made an error and you are hoping and/or praying that they don't see you.. THEY DO!!! Guess what?? It's BUH BYE!!!!

This is where the 95% get FUBAR.. You will NEVER beat them.

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  #5 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,232 received

When someone evaluates a system based only one win percentage, that person is missing the rest of the equation.

Creating a 90% winning system is quite simple. Anyone can do it.

Set your stop loss to 10x your target, and you will likely very easily have a 90% winning system.

Win percentage is worthless without also knowing the risk/reward. Better to just look at the whole equation as expectancy.

Traders that focus solely on win percentage are missing the point.

If someone is trying to sell you something on YouTube, and that something looks too good to be true, then use your common sense and ignore it.

Mike

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  #6 (permalink)
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DetroitMIUSA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 26 given, 58 received

Thanks for your post in this thread Mike

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  #7 (permalink)
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DetroitMIUSA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 193 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 58 received

Everything I have ever read on evaluation and expectancy said that sample size should be 100+.

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  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
Ingatestone
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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PowerBroker View Post
Everything I have ever read on evaluation and expectancy said that sample size should be 100+.

Probably OT, but anyways.

The required sample size is rather dependent upon the confidence interval required, the variance of your results, and a number of other variables.

For example, if I am testing how long some code takes to run, and I run it 10 times, each time it takes 5 hours +/-10 ms, I think most people wouldn't require it to be run 90 more times to safely conclude that it takes 5 hours to run. (It's Sunday, I'm not going to do the maths )

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.
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  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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DionysusToast's Avatar
 
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@PowerBroker

Are you part of the problem or part of the solution.

As of just a few days ago, you were resetting your SIM account to reflect what you will eventually go live with.



PowerBroker View Post
OK well that's it then. I have zeroed out my account balance and reset it with what I will plan to trade live with when I go back. Tomorrow will be the first day trading with that in mind. I am not changing anything. All I did was bring the account to reflect the real money I will be trading with.. Method and everything else is still the same as before.


One of the issues in trading is people that can't trade advising other people that can't trade.

Now you start a thread telling people what it's all about, who can be trusted and who can't, effectively setting yourself up as a bit of an expert.

Is this an attempt at irony or are you actually being serious here?

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