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Probability 101
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Probability 101

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
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Would be curious to see how it performed (monpere system) on the Euro(6E) today between 8:30am to 15:00pm Est.

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  #42 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
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Lornz View Post
That's a decent trading system. Are you taking the signals manually or is it automated? Do you filter signals at all? Market or limit orders? Slippage?

There's no point in posting a chart, though. Post the trades in real-time or set up a trading room with live sharing of your screen. That is a sure way to be pestered with PMs for the rest of your life... Assuming you're not making this up, of course. But I don't think that is the case.

Personally, I trade in a different manner. CL usually have larger gyrations than your targets, and I try to limit transaction costs. But, as you said: "There is more than one way to skin a cat".

The signals are actually not as accurate as they should be so I don't auto trade it. I have strict filtering rules which I've never been able to program because they are recognition of shapes of squiggly lines. My filters would have filtered out 11 losing signals and 6 winning signals.

I generally only trade 8am-12pm est. I have absolutely no desire to run trading rooms, tweet, chat, etc. I cannot imagine for the life of me why profitable traders would want to do that. That sounds like more hassle then it would ever be worth. I prefer to sit behind my keyboard and write code.

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  #43 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
The signals are actually not as accurate as they should be so I don't auto trade it. I have strict filtering rules which I've never been able to program because they are recognition of shapes of squiggly lines. My filters would have filtered out 11 losing signals and 6 winning signals.

I generally only trade 8am-12pm est. I have absolutely no desire to run trading rooms, tweet, chat, etc. I cannot imagine for the life of me why profitable traders would want to do that. That sounds like more hassle then it would ever be worth. I prefer to sit behind my keyboard and write code.

My dream.... Profitable!

Nil per os
-NJAMC [Generic Programmer]

LOM WIKI: NT-Local-Order-Manager-LOM-Guide
Artificial Bee Colony Optimization
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  #44 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
The signals are actually not as accurate as they should be so I don't auto trade it. I have strict filtering rules which I've never been able to program because they are recognition of shapes of squiggly lines. My filters would have filtered out 11 losing signals and 6 winning signals.

I generally only trade 8am-12pm est. I have absolutely no desire to run trading rooms, tweet, chat, etc. I cannot imagine for the life of me why profitable traders would want to do that. That sounds like more hassle then it would ever be worth. I prefer to sit behind my keyboard and write code.

If i were you i would have written: "i prefer to sit behind my keyboard and make money."

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  #45 (permalink)
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Bala, PA, USA
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Would be curious to see how it performed (monpere system) on the Euro(6E) today between 8:30am to 15:00pm Est.

Don't like the 6E because it just doesn't move enough. Since I trade probability, I want to trade an instrument that produces enough signals during the day in order to for the derived numbers to become significant. There were 86 bars produced by the 6E today as compared to 425 bars on the previous CL chart I posted.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Your system seems to trigger an entry each time a bar reverses. Obviously, if you take an instrument that moves a lot, any oscillator should be able to identify enough turning points to probably expect a better than 50% result, no? I am not familiar enough with the scripting lingo but i suspect if you trade when volume is at its peak and take every turn, you should be able to end with profit. Never tested these mechanical ideas.

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  #47 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Your system seems to trigger an entry each time a bar reverses. Obviously, if you take an instrument that moves a lot, any oscillator should be able to identify enough turning points to probably expect a better than 50% result, no? I am not familiar enough with the scripting lingo but i suspect if you trade when volume is at its peak and take every turn, you should be able to end with profit. Never tested these mechanical ideas.

It is mainly a reversal system, so all the entries should be on bar reversals, it tries to enter on the bar that creates the peak of the reversal, but if you look closer not every bar reversal triggers a signal. Renko bars tend to work best with this system because of the inherent nature of how these bars get produced. A method does not need to be very accurate, even at below 50%, the proper risk reward ratio will more then make up for the accuracy, but you have to have enough signals for the numbers to kick in your favor.

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  #48 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
The signals are actually not as accurate as they should be so I don't auto trade it. I have strict filtering rules which I've never been able to program because they are recognition of shapes of squiggly lines. My filters would have filtered out 11 losing signals and 6 winning signals.

I generally only trade 8am-12pm est. I have absolutely no desire to run trading rooms, tweet, chat, etc. I cannot imagine for the life of me why profitable traders would want to do that. That sounds like more hassle then it would ever be worth. I prefer to sit behind my keyboard and write code.

OK. But then I don't see why you took offense at @Deucalion 's statement? It seems you are using your intelligence to filter trades?

I asked about the order types because I'm trying to understand how you execute. Are you manually placing limit orders as your signal appears? If so, are you executing with Ninjatrader in addition to using it for charting?

I was joking about the trading room. I was simply pointing out that you'll probably be getting plenty of PMs over the next few days...

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  #49 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
OK. But then I don't see why you took offense at @Deucalion 's statement? It seems you are using your intelligence to filter trades?

I asked about the order types because I'm trying to understand how you execute. Are you manually placing limit orders as your signal appears? If so, are you executing with Ninjatrader in addition to using it for charting?

I was joking about the trading room. I was simply pointing out that you'll probably be getting plenty of PMs over the next few days...

Didn't take offense, nor did I mean to offend. Just was trying to say there are various ways to trade, and since this thread is about probability, I wanted to illustrate how probability comes into play in my trading. I filter trades only because I cannot get the indicator to filter 100% accurately, that may just be a reflection of my coding abilities

I chart and execute with Ninjatrader. I enter on bar close with a stop/limit order the moment the signal appears intra- bar. Once the signal appears, it means that if the bar closes in that direction, it will be a valid signal. Given with a range/renko type bars I know the price where the bar is going to close, my order is placed, and is waiting, way before the entry bar closes. If the bar closes the other way, the entry order is canceled.

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  #50 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Didn't take offense, nor did I mean to offend. Just was trying to say there are various ways to trade, and since this thread is about probability, I wanted to illustrate how probability comes into play in my trading. I filter trades only because I cannot get the indicator to filter 100% accurately, that may just be a reflection of my coding abilities

I chart and execute with Ninjatrader. I enter on bar close with a stop/limit order the moment the signal appears intra- bar. Once the signal appears, it means that if the bar closes in that direction, it will be a valid signal. Given with a range/renko type bars I know the price where the bar is going to close, my order is placed, and is waiting, way before the entry bar is closed. If the bar closes the other way, the entry order is canceled.

I have the same problem with one of my systems, but it's too stressful to execute manually. I have to admit that I am a terrible coder, but, as I fairly recently discovered an inclination for functional programming, I have a hope of automating all of my intraday trading this year.

I was simply wondering if you were experiencing missed/losing trades due to poor execution. Seeing as your system trades relatively frequently, uses fairly small stops/targets and that CL moves like a beast, I thought you might benefit from faster order routing. Especially with regard to getting the exit order earlier in the queue. At $300k per contract/year it's easily deductible.

Anyway, thanks for sharing and I wish you continued success!

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