I decided that when people say stops are being run, it just means they have mis-judged the supply/demand imbalance and the price at which the balance will shift given the time frame they are working in. I suspect that "stop runs" are a function of the need for the market to never really stay at equilibrium. You have to reach an over/under state to swing the other way, stops help do this as they can be clustered and provide a burst to potential extremes.
Simply put, don't be that guy getting stopped.
On the flip side if you are looking to take advantage of the liquidity that the stops provide then good for you.
I look for a weak higher high or lower low in one direction then a tl break in the other direction. Reason being ppl are quicker to dump out if they are not in the money or had a chance to scale out. More reliable on a bigger picture pullback.
To get a boolen AND
To get a exact phrase
"running the stops"
As you indicated in your question, stops accumulate after CIT points.
My suggestion is to study this yourself for the instrument you trade and measure the depth of the stop-run.
I think you will notice patterns. (It is not exaclty the same amount each time.)
In searching for the answer to your question you should also not break-out and break-down levels - collectively called break away points.
This post has been selected as an answer to the original posters question
Common things like a couple ticks outside a pivot, a couple ticks outside a day high/low, a couple ticks outside a recent swing high, a couple ticks outside a weekly high/low, etc... these are all "dumb stops" that I think the market is generally drawn towards before it reverses.
In other words, it will take out any directional players who had the direction right, but the stop wrong, before it continues moving in the original direction.
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After Asia session price usually will move 25 - 50 pips. If price up, you should look for M pattern to short, if price down, look for W pattern to long. thats typicall stop hunt pattern I always looking for. I will trade in that direction a long until get reversal pattern at New York session.
If it was a question easily answered, we'd all be too busy stop hunting a bunch of suckers to answer.
My understanding is that it depends on a couple of factors.
1-How much liquidity is there (this includes stuff which isn't in the book).
Only going to happen if there are a lot of stops there, so if your stop is an obvious place (all time highs/lows, turning points etc)
2-How hard it is to get there.
This includes how far away the level is, how liquid the market is, etc. If it's out of market hours, it's a lot easier to move the market up/down to take these levels out (also a bonus if your prey isn't at his desk).
3-Risk of news etc.
As an example, if you're thinking things are going to kick off in the middle east any minute now, you might be wary of trying to take out other's long stops, as it might go off while you're short trying to get people out, then again, be bold when others are cautious and visa versa.
4-How easily people are shaken out.
If people are jumpy, it's a lot easier to get them to change their position. For example, I'm of the opinion that the spikes on NFP aren't due to algos making sense of the data quicker (sure there is some of that), but mainly (still algos probably) really ballsy players.