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Are futures dying? "Volume drying up"
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Are futures dying? "Volume drying up"

  #81 (permalink)
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A good read from Zerohedge:

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/19359-why-market-slowly-dying.html#post211419

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  #82 (permalink)
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Volatility demonstration, courtesy @mrphr



Mike

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  #83 (permalink)
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Volumes


Read on leaprate :
"Leading retail FX firm FXCM, the world's largest online FX broker, announced its September volumes, with retail volumes coming in at $304 billion for the month, and institutional at $46 billion. Comparatively (see chart below), retail volumes were up 12% as compared with August, but institutional volumes were down 8%, continuing a downward spiral since hitting a peak of $174 billion-per-month last October. Note that both retail (-18%) and institutional (-64%) were down compared to last year September."

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  #84 (permalink)
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I realize this thread is titled 'futures', but nonetheless the best thread to discuss this.

US Equity Trading Volume Hits Fresh 15-Year Low | Zero Hedge

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This represents equity volume.

If you look at the HFT-age you can clearly see a surge in volume, and now as HFT is becoming less popular as the money maker, it is decreasing.

What do you think happens next?

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  #85 (permalink)
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Interesting, thanks for that.

After a period of lower volume can we expect a period of higher volume? Sort of like volatility

I'm a little surprised that we haven't had the increase in participation that usually drive the last stages of a bull market, but maybe that's because its yet to come. There's still lots of doomsayer's out there calling for a big market correction this fall...

Maybe this volume is a hint that we haven't seen the last leg up.

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  #86 (permalink)
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Some figures from the CME Group Volume Report for Futures in August. There is a considerable growth in the volume of interest rate, metals and FX futures. Equity index and energy futures show a small decline, while the decline in commodities and alternative investments is more pronounced.

I would not share the opionion that futures volume is drying out.


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Source: CME Volume Report for August

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  #87 (permalink)
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Information age, not wisdom age

I concur with Fat Tails. The world took notice in 2008 when major indices collapsed 34% and Futures based alternative funds dropped by the low teens. The long term Futures volume growth started at that point as institutions and pension funds wanted exposure in this space. That trend remains intact. August over PY August, or any other month for that matter, is a pseudo statistic. It is information which is cheap, without the "wisdom" of context which is as rare as it has always been.


Last edited by FalseProphets; September 22nd, 2013 at 02:48 PM. Reason: *
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  #88 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Some figures from the CME Group Volume Report for Futures in August. There is a considerable growth in the volume of interest rate, metals and FX futures. Equity index and energy futures show a small decline, while the decline in commodities and alternative investments is more pronounced.

I would not share the opionion that futures volume is drying out.


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Source: CME Volume Report for August

I have been involved (brokered and traded) treasury futures since 1987. The 2013 growth in interest futures is from a very depressed level. I don't have figures but volume in the Interest rate futures is not even close to what it was 5 years ago. I attribute the decline in volume to the Financial crisis (players eliminated), Fed policy, and HFT's.

Since 1987, the mkt has always been changing and the network of friends etc that I have always been able to adjust to the change. We (they) were able to make the change from pit trading to screen trading and in fact flourish during the transition from pit to screen trading. However, since HFT's have taken over very few have been able to survive. HFt's initially made life difficult but the financial crisis of '08/09 was the nail in the coffin. After '08/'09 so many institutional players were forced out of the mkt and there is a lack of 'balance of players' in the market anymore.

Did you ever watch the Lion King when the Hyenas took over...sometimes I think the HFT's are the Hyenas....It does get much attention because we have been in a Bull mkt...there would be outrage if we were in the midst of a bear mkt.

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  #89 (permalink)
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tflanner View Post
I have been involved (brokered and traded) treasury futures since 1987. The 2013 growth in interest futures is from a very depressed level. I don't have figures but volume in the Interest rate futures is not even close to what it was 5 years ago. I attribute the decline in volume to the Financial crisis (players eliminated), Fed policy, and HFT's.

Since 1987, the mkt has always been changing and the network of friends etc that I have always been able to adjust to the change. We (they) were able to make the change from pit trading to screen trading and in fact flourish during the transition from pit to screen trading. However, since HFT's have taken over very few have been able to survive. HFt's initially made life difficult but the financial crisis of '08/09 was the nail in the coffin. After '08/'09 so many institutional players were forced out of the mkt and there is a lack of 'balance of players' in the market anymore.

Did you ever watch the Lion King when the Hyenas took over...sometimes I think the HFT's are the Hyenas....It does get much attention because we have been in a Bull mkt...there would be outrage if we were in the midst of a bear mkt.

So in other words, it's more than likely to keep declining? How about emerging market futures?

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  #90 (permalink)
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I have no opinion about emerging mkt futures (not very familiar with them)...but I will say that HFT's are global and in every mkt.

As far as U.S. futures volume drying up...I will not blame it all HFT's...as I mentioned a lot of it has to do with the hangover from the financial crisis (players eliminated) and Fed policy. As long as the Fed continues with QE and interest rates are stable I believe exchange volume will suffer. Interest Rates are a HUGE driver of exchange volume.

Finally, I am not bitter at the HFT's even though they made life very difficult for me in the last few years I traded spreads. I just try not to compete with them anymore. Also, I try to adjust to how they impact the mkt....it is what it is....it is like playing a game with bad ref's.....losers blame the ref....winners overcome bad officiating and play on.

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