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You want to short this? Given the fact it's grinding up regardless of the economy?
You want to go long some more?
Do they expect people to be piling in regardless here? Do they not think this is a key period of uncertainty?
I mean - if we got some news and a few big players stared selling it and generating what appeared to be downward momentum, wouldn't lots of people jump on that? Of course they would.
I think this is just that no-one wants to make the first move. Nothing more complex than that.
I disagree with your assessment; this is not a game of chicken
a real sense of complacency has set in...
From ex-Fed Governor Warsh, " Central bank transparency is good, but transparency that delineates future policy breeds market complacency. It threatens to undermine the wisdom of the crowds and the essential interchange with financial markets."
ES liquidity is now dominated by short time-frame players, i.e., large day traders and algos. They're demonstrating that they are not as quick, as in prior months, to flee the market at the first sign of trouble, e.g., all of the news that circulated about Greece yesterday, and it was the lowest volume day of the year.
the Fed is supposed to listen to the market for guidance in it's policy decisions
instead the the fed is dictating to the market what it should do, and where it should go
and in doing so, has manged to both undermine and subordinate the market
the corpus delicti is the prevailing market malaise
I think it's good as a warning to the whole system. So far individuals like Corzine have been able to get away with irresponsible risk while retailers are always enforced by margin calls. I remember when the MFGlobal news was going on, just before Corzine's first public appearance, CNBC was asking questions of a CME group rep lady. She kept trying to dodge questions about CMEgroup's regulatory and enforcement practices in regard to use of segregated accounts. Maybe this will motivate CMEgroup and SEC to better monitor their own.
Surrealer and Surrealer (sp.) is the only way to describe today's activity. With a technical halt in CME's oil complex trading which was quite obviously driven by some rogue algo between Oil futures and the USO oil ETF, perhaps it is no surprise that today's NYSE volume (16% below the year's average volume) is the lowest on Bloomberg data for a non-Holiday day in over a decade. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) also had a dismal day with the day's total just beating February 6th previous multi-year low (non-holiday) volume and 30% below the 50-day average volume. [IMG]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/02/20120213_NYSEvol_0.png[/IMG]
NYSE volume (NYSEVOL on BBG) made a new low for the year (which means decade also) as today saw volumes 16% below an already terribly low year average. [IMG]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/02/20120213_ES%20block_0.png[/IMG]
ES volumes were terrible too though average trade size is dropping at around 4.14 contracts per trade (well off its peak over 5 last week) perhaps suggesting the bigger players are positioned and now the smaller ones are chasing (who is trading European financial credit - which has sold off significantly and is at two week wides? big professional traders or small retail traders?). Also perhaps its a notable coincidence that we have seen these kind of 'incredible' ramps a few times in the last few years - each red block is the same size and period.
