NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one FuturesTrader71 with 15 posts (20 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 13 posts (30 thanks)
    3. looks_3 kbit with 10 posts (3 thanks)
    4. looks_4 khamore1 with 7 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one eudamonia with 3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 2.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Jigsaw Trading with 2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 FuturesTrader71 with 1.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 56,848 views
    2. thumb_up 97 thanks given
    3. group 29 followers
    1. forum 98 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples

  #21 (permalink)
 khamore1 
New Jersey
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investors RT Trade Station
Trading: ES
Posts: 8 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 1

I was further reflecting on the above statistics and it appear to me that it is wrong and beyond reality
Here is why. Assuming In a casino roulette wheel there are 199 red numbers and only one black Do you think your chances that the next color will be black are 50%?
If so why Trader71 does not open a casino with the above ratio, he might raise a lot of money for his cause

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
 
  #22 (permalink)
 
GridKing's Avatar
 GridKing 
San Diego, CA USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 3,630 since May 2011
Thanks Given: 584
Thanks Received: 881

In terms of being right, I think the chance is less than 50% overall as far as pre choosing, should I be short or long tomorrow from Friday, first 50% chance of being right , then take away the chop effect where either choice is wrong , more like 1/3 .....

keep it simple....patience pays JMO

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)
 Tarkus11 
East Coast
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Trading: ES, NQ
Posts: 124 since Apr 2010
Thanks Given: 55
Thanks Received: 80


I think he was referring to the sample size.

Each single event is independent of each subsequent event and has independent forces acting on it (the guy may need to pee first and be closest to the door, etc). It is the aggregation of events over a sample size that produces the statistic.

In the roulette wheel example, the black may make up 99% of the space on the wheel - the mistake is assuming you know how the wheel is configured.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #24 (permalink)
 khamore1 
New Jersey
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investors RT Trade Station
Trading: ES
Posts: 8 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 1


Tarkus11 View Post
I think he was referring to the sample size.

Each single event is independent of each subsequent event and has independent forces acting on it (the guy may need to pee first and be closest to the door, etc). It is the aggregation of events over a sample size that produces the statistic.

In the roulette wheel example, the black may make up 99% of the space on the wheel - the mistake is assuming you know how the wheel is configured.




To Tarkus11
Thank you for your response it make a lot of sense what you have just said, BUT…..
This is not what trader 71 said he said: “every trade has a 50% chance of success and the same for failure every means all trades under all circumstances has the same win loss chance, and I don’t buy it
If you don’t believe me than watch the recording, he was specifically asked by many traders if this is the correct statistics and he answered YES I would like to know if you have anything to shed a light on the subject

Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)
 
omni72's Avatar
 omni72 
Tulsa, OK
 
Posts: 348 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 582
Thanks Received: 624

Rather than try to change someone's mind or be right or not be wrong, I'm just offering a very straightforward assessment of a trade: if I place a bet (i.e. put on a trade), that bet will either win or lose. There are only two possible outcomes. And when I put it on, I don't know which will happen.

Data sets, backtesting, logic, justification, homework - none of that stuff even enters the picture. It has zero impact on the next trade. That trade will either win or lose. I will either make a profit or have a loss. And since there is a cost to put on any trade, a scratch is a loss.

That's it. If I'm not comfortable with the fact that I don't know the outcome of the next trade, I probably shouldn't put it on.

As you were ...

Happy Super Bowl Day!! What? It should be a holiday.

Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)
 futuretrader 
Como Italy
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, customized
Trading: ES
Posts: 525 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 471
Thanks Received: 643

It's useful to remember that your trade stats aren't equivalent to the roulette wheel, or loaded pair of dice, etc.

The roulette wheel and the dice exist in the present, and constrain all possible outcomes.

The stats for any setup are based on historical events, where the 'roulette wheel' aka market is constantly changing. Past performance stats are no guarantee of future performance stats, even over the same sample size.

Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,397 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,173
Thanks Received: 101,537

Flip a fair coin. Regardless of whether it has come up heads the last 1,000 times in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. That is the point that was being made.

Go to Vegas. If a roulette wheel comes up black five times in a row, people rush to the table to bet on red. They think that because it has hit black so many times, it must be time to hit red. The chances are 50/50 that it will (minus zero/double zero).

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #28 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,397 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,173
Thanks Received: 101,537

Tip


The recording of the webinar has been posted:

Webinar: [AUTOLINK]FuturesTrader71[/AUTOLINK] on Volume Profile




Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)
 khamore1 
New Jersey
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investors RT Trade Station
Trading: ES
Posts: 8 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 1


Big Mike View Post
Flip a fair coin. Regardless of whether it has come up heads the last 1,000 times in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. That is the point that was being made.

Go to Vegas. If a roulette wheel comes up black five times in a row, people rush to the table to bet on red. They think that because it has hit black so many times, it must be time to hit red. The chances are 50/50 that it will (minus zero/double zero).

Mike

To Big Mike, thank you for taking the time to answer me, but I disagree with your analysis
#1 the coin flip has only two sides the odds are 50/50 the roulette wheel the way you describe it is also divided evenly between the red and black
The way Trader71 explain to us is under ALL circumstances your chances are 50/50 it means that even the roulette wheel has 199black and only one red and 99% of the board is black you still has 50/50 chance
He was repeatedly asked if this statics is true and he answered yes
I accept the concept the way you and Tarkus11 wrote here but I don’t accept the numbers the way Trader71 explained to us in this webinar, I have heard a lot of good references about Trader71 and I appreciate his attempt to help trader but I think he confused us more than he helped us with his statistics
I have statistic from Sisco trading and this guy is a mathematician worked for NASA he gave a lot of solid statistic about the Initial Balance which are useful and true I don’t want to make this thread as argument between us, I just wanted to express my thought, I’m sure a lot of other traders are as confused as I’m

Reply With Quote
  #30 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,397 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,173
Thanks Received: 101,537



khamore1 View Post
To Big Mike, thank you for taking the time to answer me, but I disagree with your analysis

I will have to listen to the recording again, because the way I understood it was that you simply cannot predict the next trade. You either win, or you lose. 50/50. I even remember saying that over time, over a larger distribution or sample size, you can confirm you have an edge by looking at winner $ vs losing $, and he confirmed. So I am not sure what the confusion is.

To the guy who asked about 1 female and 199 males, the market is not distributed like that so I don't believe it is a fair comparison. The market is much more balanced.

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 7, 2013


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts