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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples
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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples

  #71 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
Broker/Data: Stage 5 Trading Corp
Favorite Futures: ES, M6E, FDAX, TF, NQ, GC
 
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Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 74 given, 785 received


kbit View Post
Thanks Mike and FT, It was a good webinar but I would have liked to hear stuff about trading the opening range and other things of that nature, like what he does around HVNs, etc.... hopefully he will do another webinar and maybe discuss some of that.

The issue with making blanket statements about "opening range" or other setups is that they don't take into account the fact that the market is driven by context. This point eludes most people in that they are looking for some magic setup (I get asked for setups all of the time) that they can apply under blanket circumstances. This is not how most professionals trade.

The most elusive thing you will find about learning to trade is defining and reading context. The same issue exists when learning a language. Without context, a word or a phrase makes no sense. Most books, indicators, seminars and other tools sold out there are attempting or trying to make you believe that you will have context or don't need context.

So I suggest you read the market like a book. Understand where it is coming from and what it is trying to do from the "test, move, retest" auction perspective.

Big topic and great question, but hard to get into here without narrating a book.

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  #72 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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khamore1 View Post
On Saturday Feb. 4, 2012 I attended a webinar presented by Future trader 71 the most astounding statistics revealed to me was every trade has a 50% chance of win and the same for a loss the more bewildering statistical probabilities was, the following example
if you pack a room with 199 females and one male and you have to predict who will come out first from this room the probability that a male will come out first are 50%
This fly in the face of all the statistics that I was fed by other Gurus,
My question is: do you think it is true? (I don't)

This always catches people. The problem is partly semantics and partly assumptions that don't necessarily line up with real life market action.

The example of the room with 199 females is a poor analogy. What is being presented is a limited data-set...which is what every person who speaks of "edge" gets wrapped in. The better analogy is a room with 199 females and one male historically but there is an open door in the back where anyone can walk in and out over time.

The possibility for the very next trade is: WIN or LOSE

We can argue this until we are blue in the face and can get some PhD's in Stats and Probabilities in here to argue one way or another. However, I'm a trader. I don't care if the edge is 62.4% or 72.8%. Those are both the same thing when it comes down to the business of doing a trade. I don't know if the next trade is a winner or a loser, so all I can do as a trader is size my position and define my risk; put the trade in the endless river of market rotations and see what it gives me with the added step that I actively manage my trades by manipulating the size of my unit.

Anyway....my website's motto is Simplicity In Trading. Keep it simple and manage risk.

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  #73 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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kbit View Post
I don't agree with him either ...maybe for his trades but not mine.

Aside from that I want to know in that equation what a win is defined as...is it a constant(no) ....is it 1 tick ...is it 50 ticks. What is a loss...wouldn't that have to be a constant in this equation too ?
If it's variable things get really messy.

Do you see what I'm saying...

Again, I think this is an issue with semantics. The intent of the webinar is an intro to establish who I am for those who don't know me and to blush over my approach. I didn't prepare nor had time to get into this subject.

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  #74 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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khamore1 View Post
I was further reflecting on the above statistics and it appear to me that it is wrong and beyond reality
Here is why. Assuming In a casino roulette wheel there are 199 red numbers and only one black Do you think your chances that the next color will be black are 50%?
If so why Trader71 does not open a casino with the above ratio, he might raise a lot of money for his cause

The casino roulette wheel as predetermined values and they are finite. Is that so with the market? I don't think so.

Part of what I have been doing for the last year is developing some high-end automated trading programs with other traders for the public to trade. What anyone who has developed a system runs into is that the assumption that their data-set represents all possibilities is false and leads to almost immediate doubt in the program. This is because the market is just continuously reflecting the sentiment of value and all you can do is test what HAS ALREADY happened. The market is constantly reinventing itself, so we make sure that our programs are built on sound TRADING logic and not built on that particular data set for the same reason as why this roulette wheel example is invalid.

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  #75 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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Tarkus11 View Post
I think he was referring to the sample size.

Each single event is independent of each subsequent event and has independent forces acting on it (the guy may need to pee first and be closest to the door, etc). It is the aggregation of events over a sample size that produces the statistic.

In the roulette wheel example, the black may make up 99% of the space on the wheel - the mistake is assuming you know how the wheel is configured.

Nice job! Well said.

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  #76 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: S5 Trader, IQFeed, IRT
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khamore1 View Post
To Tarkus11
Thank you for your response it make a lot of sense what you have just said, BUTÖ..
This is not what trader 71 said he said: ďevery trade has a 50% chance of success and the same for failure every means all trades under all circumstances has the same win loss chance, and I donít buy it
If you donít believe me than watch the recording, he was specifically asked by many traders if this is the correct statistics and he answered YES I would like to know if you have anything to shed a light on the subject

Again, i think you are getting caught up in the theory of it. The next time you put a trade on, the possibility is only for a win or a loss. Period.

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  #77 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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omni72 View Post
Rather than try to change someone's mind or be right or not be wrong, I'm just offering a very straightforward assessment of a trade: if I place a bet (i.e. put on a trade), that bet will either win or lose. There are only two possible outcomes. And when I put it on, I don't know which will happen.

Data sets, backtesting, logic, justification, homework - none of that stuff even enters the picture. It has zero impact on the next trade. That trade will either win or lose. I will either make a profit or have a loss. And since there is a cost to put on any trade, a scratch is a loss.

That's it. If I'm not comfortable with the fact that I don't know the outcome of the next trade, I probably shouldn't put it on.

As you were ...

Happy Super Bowl Day!! What? It should be a holiday.

Correct. It is really that simple. The value of your stop is the amount you have at risk to find out the outcome of the very next coin toss or card drawn out of the deck.

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  #78 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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Big Mike View Post
Flip a fair coin. Regardless of whether it has come up heads the last 1,000 times in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. That is the point that was being made.

Go to Vegas. If a roulette wheel comes up black five times in a row, people rush to the table to bet on red. They think that because it has hit black so many times, it must be time to hit red. The chances are 50/50 that it will (minus zero/double zero).

Mike

Yes, that is my point. It is an interesting subject and I want those who want to challenge my thinking to do so. However, it can't be covered in 10 minutes at the end of a VERY long webinar (it was feature-film length and I didn't have my bucket of popcorn).

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  #79 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.futurestrader71.com 
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Posts: 238 since Feb 2012
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trendisyourfriend View Post
In this context, what is a high probability set-up if we always have 50% chance to be right or wrong ?

I don't believe you can call anything in trading as a "high probability setup" in a vacuum.

An edge, however, is an event in the market where if you size your position correctly and define risk correctly has a better possibility of giving you a positive outcome over time. You can skew the results tremendously through trade/risk management and that is where the focus of traders should be.

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  #80 (permalink)
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Ken F View Post
I would like to know if anyone here has tried the 4 webinars on his website and did you find them to be of value to your trading?
He had too much information to cover in the video, so maybe someone who is following FT71 could elaborate.

Thanks

I agree that I covered too much in this webinar. Mike and I had talked about a series and my intention was to establish background and path, so that the audience can have a sense of who they are listening to. There are many talking heads out there but few have real trading experience, so I didn't want to be just another talking head.

The 4 webinars are a more in-depth look at the market from a real auction perspective. VP is not a system. It is a way of looking at the auction. It can be combined with anything else to provide a real foundation and confidence in what we see as not just random numbers.

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