A trade's outcome is binary. It can only have one of two possible results 'win' or 'lose', like a coin 'heads' or 'tails' therefore 50/50 odds for any single isolated trade, or coin flip. We are not talking about how, based on historical observation, a certain type of trade has proven to have a certain observed probability of winning. If a coin could lend on it's edge, then each isolated flip would have 1 of 3 odds of landing in any desired state. You could actually say there is a third possibility for a trade, 'break even'. But for this discussion, since we are not including how the number of turns may change the probability, then a break even would be like not having taken a trade at all.
Odds has to do with a single event ie. 1 coin toss, 50/50 odds. Probability has to do with a set of multiple occurrences of this event, ie. 1000 coins tosses, probability of all of them being heads, pretty small.
Last edited by monpere; February 7th, 2012 at 11:03 PM.
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I have never seen a broker use an alias before. Everyone, I have encountered, used their real name. If you're going to entrust your money to them; there should be full disclosure from the beginning. In my opinion.
As to the charity, I have encountered too much misuse of donations from so called "charities", to just donate blindly. Call me "old fashioned" but I want accountability when it comes to my money. And, using an alias and not fully disclosing or making it difficult to find out where the money is going are major "red flags" in my book.
Without reference to the 50/50 outcome which seems to be the hot topic, FT71 mentioned other interesting aspects that individual traders experience. He mentions 'The Monkey' which is something I think we have all (and still do) experience when it comes to trading. I think this becomes more important learning to deal with after have two or more losing trades in a row using the 50/50 rule.
Interesting aspect of the Fight or Flight response FT71 mentions.
Speaking from my trading experience, every time I trigger a trade, I can relate to the 'narrowed field of view' when it comes to information analysis when participating in the market.
Interesting psychological aspects covered.
Invaluable and Important
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In my opinion, if he was a charlatan (and I really believe he isn't), then he'd not pick this charity in post 9/11 America. He'd pick something with more universal appeal.
In terms of the brokerage, of course at that point, you'd need to know who you are dealing with. Any company has a public filing in the US and you can find out who the directors are. This includes the company behind the FT71 website. So - if you do your research, you can find out who the guy is. I did it and it took me about 10 minutes.
I came across FT71 when he was first putting out his webinars. I have paid for them all and am very happy with what I got. Considering the price - $120 - it's almost free when you compare it to what other people charge $1000's for.
The recording was published the day after the webinar. Read the thread for the link. The recording includes the Q&A answers.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
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Fun to watch all of you go at it - confusing and conflicting the realm of logic versus the mathematical world of probability. Reminds me of my years in graduate school listening to the impassioned arguments of those whose ability to reason was supurb but whose background was limited. I have graduate degrees in Philosophy of Science. Karl Popper. anong many (the best is the American W.V.O. Quine) tried to combine the two - known as a probabilistic analysis. He like so many failed in his grand claims, but contributed much useful thinking to the problem of the intersection of logic, math, and verification - empiricism.
"Popper's solution  was an original contribution in the philosophy of mathematics. His idea was that a number statement such as "2 apples + 2 apples = 4 apples" can be taken in two senses. In one sense it is irrefutable and logically true, in the second sense it is factually true and falsifiable. Concisely, the pure mathematics "2 + 2 = 4" is always true, but, when the formula is applied to real world apples, it is open to falsification."
I was listening to the Webinar when Futuretrader71 made his now famous statement. He is no educator - he failed to distinguish that in logic there is only true or false, or win or lose; versus the vastscience of verification through mathematical means - often in common parlance - probability. Oil and water - they never mix well. Trying to explain one in tems of the other is the philosphy of science in Western Civilization - now some 2500 plus years in the making. This thread is now a part of that endeavor. Best. Larry
The ES is universally popular. It is a competitive and provides good liquidity for obvious levels for the volume profile (VP).
It is not for the mean-reverting aspect. The VP works with most products you can trade. I say "most" because it isn't effective in products that don't have enough participants to auction. But then again, nothing really works all that way in a thinly-traded product.
On twitter in the past, I have run annotated charts on CL, 6E, GOOG, AAPL and other products such as GC and SI. However, time is at a premium and I do this for clients only when they ask (I have to have a life too ).
Again, the ES is the most popularly traded product out there, so it has the widest audience. The same approach can be and has been applied to most things out there. I know because I trade many different products.
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