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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples
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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples

  #61 (permalink)
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eudamonia View Post
Having watched his webinars and followed for some time this is what he means by the 50/50 probability:

1) Your edge (assuming you have one) is say 70% you win, 30% you lose. This edge has been tested using your system over time. It is an average of a sequence of trades.

2) The odds of your exact next trade being a winner/loser is 50%/50%. Why? Because there are only two choices and you cannot know whether this exact trade is a winner/loser. Hence 50%/50%.

Which makes sense. If you knew that the odds of your next trade was 30% you would skip that trade and wait for the trade in your sequence that was a likely winner. This is called cherry picking your trades. Ever done that with a successful edge? Usually it leads to having no edge at all. Don't believe me? Try picking winners and losers within your defined edge. Are you able to improve your edge doing this activity? Not likely or you already would have done so.

Another way of looking at it is:

Any 1 trade's outcome is completely non determinable (i.e., 50/50)
Any sequence of trades (assuming an edge is present) can have a known probable outcome (i.e, 70/30)

This concept is not anything new and has been in trading books about money management for time eternal.

"Any 1 trade's outcome is completely non determinable (i.e., 50/50)".....that's the part I have a problem with.

My head is still spinning but not quite as fast....

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  #62 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
"Any 1 trade's outcome is completely non determinable (i.e., 50/50)".....that's the part I have a problem with.

My head is still spinning but not quite as fast....

A trade's outcome is binary. It can only have one of two possible results 'win' or 'lose', like a coin 'heads' or 'tails' therefore 50/50 odds for any single isolated trade, or coin flip. We are not talking about how, based on historical observation, a certain type of trade has proven to have a certain observed probability of winning. If a coin could lend on it's edge, then each isolated flip would have 1 of 3 odds of landing in any desired state. You could actually say there is a third possibility for a trade, 'break even'. But for this discussion, since we are not including how the number of turns may change the probability, then a break even would be like not having taken a trade at all.

Odds has to do with a single event ie. 1 coin toss, 50/50 odds. Probability has to do with a set of multiple occurrences of this event, ie. 1000 coins tosses, probability of all of them being heads, pretty small.


Last edited by monpere; February 8th, 2012 at 12:03 AM.
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  #63 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
ooooh - cloak & dagger. Maybe the evil anon vendors are ganging up.

The name is Peter Davies. Tel +66 81 810 9588. My name is actually all over my web site.... I can give you my address, you know - if you want to send me a valentines card...

In terms of charity, you wouldn't be able to use the charities paypal account anyway bcoz you wouldn't know who you'd sold to. So - it makes sense that payments go to his company paypal account. I don't know any other way you'd do it.

It's nice to meet you Peter.

I have never seen a broker use an alias before. Everyone, I have encountered, used their real name. If you're going to entrust your money to them; there should be full disclosure from the beginning. In my opinion.

As to the charity, I have encountered too much misuse of donations from so called "charities", to just donate blindly. Call me "old fashioned" but I want accountability when it comes to my money. And, using an alias and not fully disclosing or making it difficult to find out where the money is going are major "red flags" in my book.

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  #64 (permalink)
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Thanks to Big Mike and FT71 for the webinar,

Without reference to the 50/50 outcome which seems to be the hot topic, FT71 mentioned other interesting aspects that individual traders experience. He mentions 'The Monkey' which is something I think we have all (and still do) experience when it comes to trading. I think this becomes more important learning to deal with after have two or more losing trades in a row using the 50/50 rule.

Interesting aspect of the Fight or Flight response FT71 mentions.
Speaking from my trading experience, every time I trigger a trade, I can relate to the 'narrowed field of view' when it comes to information analysis when participating in the market.

Interesting psychological aspects covered.
Invaluable and Important

Thanks again

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  #65 (permalink)
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TI Anon View Post
It's nice to meet you Peter.

I have never seen a broker use an alias before. Everyone, I have encountered, used their real name. If you're going to entrust your money to them; there should be full disclosure from the beginning. In my opinion.

As to the charity, I have encountered too much misuse of donations from so called "charities", to just donate blindly. Call me "old fashioned" but I want accountability when it comes to my money. And, using an alias and not fully disclosing or making it difficult to find out where the money is going are major "red flags" in my book.

I hear you - here is the charity info:

Soliciting Donations, To Whom and For What? | FuturesTrader71
naaponline.org

In my opinion, if he was a charlatan (and I really believe he isn't), then he'd not pick this charity in post 9/11 America. He'd pick something with more universal appeal.

In terms of the brokerage, of course at that point, you'd need to know who you are dealing with. Any company has a public filing in the US and you can find out who the directors are. This includes the company behind the FT71 website. So - if you do your research, you can find out who the guy is. I did it and it took me about 10 minutes.

I came across FT71 when he was first putting out his webinars. I have paid for them all and am very happy with what I got. Considering the price - $120 - it's almost free when you compare it to what other people charge $1000's for.

I honestly believe the guy is 'paying it forward' with these seminars.

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  #66 (permalink)
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jthom View Post
Speaking from my trading experience, every time I trigger a trade, I can relate to the 'narrowed field of view' when it comes to information analysis when participating in the market.

Interesting psychological aspects covered.
Invaluable and Important

Thanks again

You might find Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" useful. It's filled with related information about our methods of information analysis and decision-making. Highly recommended.

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  #67 (permalink)
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Q&A session

I sent a question to FT71, is Q&A session part of webinar recorded and what about answers...r they going to be published on futures.io (formerly BMT)..?
Regards

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  #68 (permalink)
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jleko View Post
I sent a question to FT71, is Q&A session part of webinar recorded and what about answers...r they going to be published on futures.io (formerly BMT)..?
Regards

The recording was published the day after the webinar. Read the thread for the link. The recording includes the Q&A answers.

Mike

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  #69 (permalink)
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Logic & Probability = 2 different worlds

Fun to watch all of you go at it - confusing and conflicting the realm of logic versus the mathematical world of probability. Reminds me of my years in graduate school listening to the impassioned arguments of those whose ability to reason was supurb but whose background was limited. I have graduate degrees in Philosophy of Science. Karl Popper. anong many (the best is the American W.V.O. Quine) tried to combine the two - known as a probabilistic analysis. He like so many failed in his grand claims, but contributed much useful thinking to the problem of the intersection of logic, math, and verification - empiricism.

"Popper's solution [14] was an original contribution in the philosophy of mathematics. His idea was that a number statement such as "2 apples + 2 apples = 4 apples" can be taken in two senses. In one sense it is irrefutable and logically true, in the second sense it is factually true and falsifiable. Concisely, the pure mathematics "2 + 2 = 4" is always true, but, when the formula is applied to real world apples, it is open to falsification.[15]"

I was listening to the Webinar when Futuretrader71 made his now famous statement. He is no educator - he failed to distinguish that in logic there is only true or false, or win or lose; versus the vastscience of verification through mathematical means - often in common parlance - probability. Oil and water - they never mix well. Trying to explain one in tems of the other is the philosphy of science in Western Civilization - now some 2500 plus years in the making. This thread is now a part of that endeavor. Best. Larry

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  #70 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
One question i would have liked to ask to FT is why most Market Profile's aficionados use the ES as their instrument of choice ? Is it because the market profile tool is more suited for instruments that have inherently mean-reverting tendencies? We rarely see a demonstration of market profile on instruments like the CL or 6E. Why? is it because market profile is less effective on such instruments? If there is more money to be made with instruments that move then why focusing so much on the ES?

The ES is universally popular. It is a competitive and provides good liquidity for obvious levels for the volume profile (VP).

It is not for the mean-reverting aspect. The VP works with most products you can trade. I say "most" because it isn't effective in products that don't have enough participants to auction. But then again, nothing really works all that way in a thinly-traded product.

On twitter in the past, I have run annotated charts on CL, 6E, GOOG, AAPL and other products such as GC and SI. However, time is at a premium and I do this for clients only when they ask (I have to have a life too ).

Again, the ES is the most popularly traded product out there, so it has the widest audience. The same approach can be and has been applied to most things out there. I know because I trade many different products.

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