Ha! This post made me laugh, thank you. I'm watching the webinar now... so can't comment - he does have a lot of great stuff on his website but you have to hunt around in all the recorded videos there (which you can watch for free). I'm not sold on volume profiling for myself but I do like his narrative style of trying to understand the market and what it is doing and trying to do. I found the vids where he talks about trading, uncertainty, risk, and psychology - they are scattered around in the list but there are nuggets of gold in there.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
Sure I don't think "50/50" was a great way of putting it. I think he just meant the "edge" from previous analysis doesn't last long and it may be over at any time. So be prepared to manage the trade if in, right away. Then one would have to "reassess" again the probability of a short vs. long.
Another thing he mentioned trading "2 units", then later on he mentioned a "unit" was 50 contracts. So he's trading 100 contracts? wow!
Odds don't change. Probability can. Ignore the zeroes and your odds of getting red on a roulette wheel are 1 in 2. After 3 consecutive reds, the odds of the next spin turning up red is still 1 in 2. However, the probability of getting 4 consecutive reds on the zero-less roulette wheel is 1 in 16. The math is incontrovertible, albeit often misunderstood.
I think human emotions and psychology plays a large factor in the market, especially with trading. Using logic on a bet of roulette makes no sense because it's random. But a trade, using proper relevant historical facts can give a trader an edge. When the nuclear crisis happened in Japan, I don't think whoever went long for Uranium stocks had a 50/50.
I'd agree , conventional statistics works best on a consistent uniform sample. A roulette table has defined discreet outcomes. Market behavior is not a consistent sample with it's mass psychology and HFT from varied parties. Not discounting overwhelming factors such as global events like the Japanese tsunami or currency manipulation. So when the current edge fades, all trading systems automated or not need a stoploss.
Last edited by Cloudy; February 7th, 2012 at 12:21 AM.
Does anyone know what his "charity" is and what it does? Or, who it helps? His credibility would diminish greatly, if it was just a non-profit helping himself, or some of his friends, as opposed to doing actual charitable work.
Also, his use of an alias is a somewhat disturbing. Who is he, really?