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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples
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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples

  #41 (permalink)
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mRoss21 View Post
I must have watched the wrong webinar.

The first 45 minutes was FT71 talking about himself. Then after 20 minutes of doing a poor job of explaining his style of volume profile and promoting his site... I gave up. I guess I missed the good stuff

Ha! This post made me laugh, thank you. I'm watching the webinar now... so can't comment - he does have a lot of great stuff on his website but you have to hunt around in all the recorded videos there (which you can watch for free). I'm not sold on volume profiling for myself but I do like his narrative style of trying to understand the market and what it is doing and trying to do. I found the vids where he talks about trading, uncertainty, risk, and psychology - they are scattered around in the list but there are nuggets of gold in there.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #42 (permalink)
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Sure I don't think "50/50" was a great way of putting it. I think he just meant the "edge" from previous analysis doesn't last long and it may be over at any time. So be prepared to manage the trade if in, right away. Then one would have to "reassess" again the probability of a short vs. long.

Another thing he mentioned trading "2 units", then later on he mentioned a "unit" was 50 contracts. So he's trading 100 contracts? wow!

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  #43 (permalink)
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Odds vs. Probability


Odds don't change. Probability can. Ignore the zeroes and your odds of getting red on a roulette wheel are 1 in 2. After 3 consecutive reds, the odds of the next spin turning up red is still 1 in 2. However, the probability of getting 4 consecutive reds on the zero-less roulette wheel is 1 in 16. The math is incontrovertible, albeit often misunderstood.

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  #44 (permalink)
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timefreedom View Post
Odds don't change. Probability can. Ignore the zeroes and your odds of getting red on a roulette wheel are 1 in 2. After 3 consecutive reds, the odds of the next spin turning up red is still 1 in 2. However, the probability of getting 4 consecutive reds on the zero-less roulette wheel is 1 in 16. The math is incontrovertible, albeit often misunderstood.

You're making my head spin again

So are the ODDS that the next trade is 50/50 or is it PROBABLE that it is 50/50 .....or what?

What was that guy trying to say?....what would you say regarding the next trade?

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  #45 (permalink)
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I would think ODDS don't play a role in trading because there are no constants...everything is variable....infinite if you will, so what we have is probabilities that we deal with.

If this is true then the 50/50 thing is bunk as a blanket statement.

We are speculators...not gamblers

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  #46 (permalink)
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mRoss21 View Post
I must have watched the wrong webinar.

The first 45 minutes was FT71 talking about himself. Then after 20 minutes of doing a poor job of explaining his style of volume profile and promoting his site... I gave up. I guess I missed the good stuff

I have to admit, I also gave up at about the 1 hour mark.

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  #47 (permalink)
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I think human emotions and psychology plays a large factor in the market, especially with trading. Using logic on a bet of roulette makes no sense because it's random. But a trade, using proper relevant historical facts can give a trader an edge. When the nuclear crisis happened in Japan, I don't think whoever went long for Uranium stocks had a 50/50.

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  #48 (permalink)
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I'd agree , conventional statistics works best on a consistent uniform sample. A roulette table has defined discreet outcomes. Market behavior is not a consistent sample with it's mass psychology and HFT from varied parties. Not discounting overwhelming factors such as global events like the Japanese tsunami or currency manipulation. So when the current edge fades, all trading systems automated or not need a stoploss.


Last edited by Cloudy; February 7th, 2012 at 12:21 AM.
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  #49 (permalink)
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A few questions?

Does anyone know what his "charity" is and what it does? Or, who it helps? His credibility would diminish greatly, if it was just a non-profit helping himself, or some of his friends, as opposed to doing actual charitable work.

Also, his use of an alias is a somewhat disturbing. Who is he, really?

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khamore1 View Post
On Saturday Feb. 4, 2012 I attended a webinar presented by Future trader 71 the most astounding statistics revealed to me was every trade has a 50% chance of win and the same for a loss the more bewildering statistical probabilities was, the following example
if you pack a room with 199 females and one male and you have to predict who will come out first from this room the probability that a male will come out first are 50%
This fly in the face of all the statistics that I was fed by other Gurus,
My question is: do you think it is true? (I don't)

Not true.

What he means is - your next trade will win or lose.

The first person out of the room will be male or female.

This is not probability but I do understand his point.

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