I will throw in my 2cents as well (in this case 1 cent). Given a perfect coin, there is a difference between these questions:
(a) what is the probabilty that a coin will come up heads 10 times in a row?
Answer: 2 to the -10 power (<0.1%)
(b) what is the probability that, after seeing a coin toss with 9 heads in a row, the next flip gives you heads as well. Answer: 50%. Why? A perfect coin has no memory, each toss is an independent event.
Analogy in trading might be: if the trend is down (each of 9 prior support levels was broken), and price is approaching the 10th lower support level. Assume that the market has not moved that far down without a significant reversal in past 30 years.
There is a difference between the questions:
(c) What are the odds that price will rip through 10 levels of support, falling further than anytime in past 30 years.
(d) What are the odds that at this 10th level, support will hold and price will reverse? You guessed it, 50/50.
My trap is that I think in terms of situation (c), when the market behaves like (d) , 50/50 up or down at any given moment.
I would like to know if anyone here has tried the 4 webinars on his website and did you find them to be of value to your trading?
He had too much information to cover in the video, so maybe someone who is following FT71 could elaborate.
I just watched that section. Here's what I think he meant.
Let's say you had a past sample set with a probability of an outcome of 83% long and 17% short. Then taking the next trade one would expect the same probability >if< still taking the trade in the current sample.
I think what he meant that the next trade would be "50/50" meaning 50% chance that the probabilities would be still in the current sample set, or 50% that at this moment of the new trade you are starting a new set of probabilities , i.e. a new set of samples that will turn out to have a different probability outcome.
So meaning the sample set could be changing at any time, one should be ready to manage the risk and assume that the probability one came up with could fail and change at any time.
Al Brooks likes to say the edge is always fleeting. It may only last for a few minutes, or a few bars, or one bar, or none at all then it takes reassessment of the "probabilities".
As for the webinar overall, I thought it was a good candid sharing by Futurestrader71 about his experiences and a emphasis on risk management and trading psychology. I couldn't get his volume profile method that quick; It would take me repeated viewings or watching his other presentations.
Last edited by Cloudy; February 6th, 2012 at 07:49 PM.
The first 45 minutes was FT71 talking about himself. Then after 20 minutes of doing a poor job of explaining his style of volume profile and promoting his site... I gave up. I guess I missed the good stuff
Maybe we misunderstood what he was trying to say but as a few have written previously if the next trade (meaning every trade really) is a 50/50 deal we should be doing something else.
That being said I wish to reiterate my point earlier that there is NO way my trades are a 50/50 deal....maybe his assertion is based soloely on HIS track record and as such is not indicative of objective reality.