Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples

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I was further reflecting on the above statistics and it appear to me that it is wrong and beyond reality
Here is why. Assuming In a casino roulette wheel there are 199 red numbers and only one black Do you think your chances that the next color will be black are 50%?
If so why Trader71 does not open a casino with the above ratio, he might raise a lot of money for his cause

In terms of being right, I think the chance is less than 50% overall as far as pre choosing, should I be short or long tomorrow from Friday, first 50% chance of being right , then take away the chop effect where either choice is wrong , more like 1/3 .....

keep it simple....patience pays JMO

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter

Each single event is independent of each subsequent event and has independent forces acting on it (the guy may need to pee first and be closest to the door, etc). It is the aggregation of events over a sample size that produces the statistic.

In the roulette wheel example, the black may make up 99% of the space on the wheel - the mistake is assuming you know how the wheel is configured.

The following user says Thank You to Tarkus11 for this post:

To Tarkus11
Thank you for your response it make a lot of sense what you have just said, BUT…..
This is not what trader 71 said he said: “every trade has a 50% chance of success and the same for failure every means all trades under all circumstances has the same win loss chance, and I don’t buy it
If you don’t believe me than watch the recording, he was specifically asked by many traders if this is the correct statistics and he answered YES I would like to know if you have anything to shed a light on the subject

Rather than try to change someone's mind or be right or not be wrong, I'm just offering a very straightforward assessment of a trade: if I place a bet (i.e. put on a trade), that bet will either win or lose. There are only two possible outcomes. And when I put it on, I don't know which will happen.

Data sets, backtesting, logic, justification, homework - none of that stuff even enters the picture. It has zero impact on the next trade. That trade will either win or lose. I will either make a profit or have a loss. And since there is a cost to put on any trade, a scratch is a loss.

That's it. If I'm not comfortable with the fact that I don't know the outcome of the next trade, I probably shouldn't put it on.

As you were ...

Happy Super Bowl Day!! What? It should be a holiday.

It's useful to remember that your trade stats aren't equivalent to the roulette wheel, or loaded pair of dice, etc.

The roulette wheel and the dice exist in the present, and constrain all possible outcomes.

The stats for any setup are based on historical events, where the 'roulette wheel' aka market is constantly changing. Past performance stats are no guarantee of future performance stats, even over the same sample size.

Flip a fair coin. Regardless of whether it has come up heads the last 1,000 times in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. That is the point that was being made.

Go to Vegas. If a roulette wheel comes up black five times in a row, people rush to the table to bet on red. They think that because it has hit black so many times, it must be time to hit red. The chances are 50/50 that it will (minus zero/double zero).

Mike

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The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

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To Big Mike, thank you for taking the time to answer me, but I disagree with your analysis
#1 the coin flip has only two sides the odds are 50/50 the roulette wheel the way you describe it is also divided evenly between the red and black
The way Trader71 explain to us is under ALL circumstances your chances are 50/50 it means that even the roulette wheel has 199black and only one red and 99% of the board is black you still has 50/50 chance
He was repeatedly asked if this statics is true and he answered yes
I accept the concept the way you and Tarkus11 wrote here but I don’t accept the numbers the way Trader71 explained to us in this webinar, I have heard a lot of good references about Trader71 and I appreciate his attempt to help trader but I think he confused us more than he helped us with his statistics
I have statistic from Sisco trading and this guy is a mathematician worked for NASA he gave a lot of solid statistic about the Initial Balance which are useful and true I don’t want to make this thread as argument between us, I just wanted to express my thought, I’m sure a lot of other traders are as confused as I’m

I will have to listen to the recording again, because the way I understood it was that you simply cannot predict the next trade. You either win, or you lose. 50/50. I even remember saying that over time, over a larger distribution or sample size, you can confirm you have an edge by looking at winner $ vs losing $, and he confirmed. So I am not sure what the confusion is.

To the guy who asked about 1 female and 199 males, the market is not distributed like that so I don't believe it is a fair comparison. The market is much more balanced.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want to support our community, become an Elite Member.