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Canada is the fourth largest equity market

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Canada is the fourth largest equity market

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Aurora, Il USA
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Few would have guessed it, but Canada is the fourth largest equity market by float capitalization in the MSCI World Index.

Canada ranks behind only the U.S., U.K. and Japan, climbing from ninth place in 1999.
During that time, Canada’s weight in the global equity benchmark moved to more than 5% from 2%.
“It is the global leader in mining and energy, with the TSX and TSX Venture exchange listing more public mining and oil and gas companies than any other exchange,” UBS strategist George Vasic said.

His 12-month target for the S&P/TSX composite index is 14,000, while his key calls are Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Natural Resources, First Quantum Minerals, Magna International, MEG Energy, Potash Corp. and Quebecor.

While that 15% expected gain may look lofty, Mr. Vasic noted that it would only close roughly half the gap to normal valuations.

If the 2012 bottom-up earnings outlook from UBS comes to fruition, Mr. Vasic’s 14,000 target implies a trailing multiple of 13.9x.

With no earnings growth, that multiple would be 15.3x, which is substantially lower than the average trailing P/E of 17.1x during the past decade and 19.4x over the past 25 years.

Meanwhile, the P/E stands at about 11.8x on a forward basis, compared to an average of 14.5x since 1987.
As a result, Canada’s fourth place ranking looks like it is here to stay.

We’re number four | Trading Desk | Investing | Financial Post

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January 19, 2012

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