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A Year With No Setups
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A Year With No Setups

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
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How about focusing a little more on fundamentals and macro? The way I look at it is that there is no one alive today that has traded this environment before. We are in a full blown sovereign debt crisis that hasn't been seen since 1931. This is only going to happen once in our lifetime and we get one shot only. I don't know how you backtest for this.

I think it is very likely that there will be some huge moves ahead. Maybe it is best to decrease leverage, widen stops, and try to get onboard in size when these moves happen.

I am trying to focus on staying patient and being ready to take advantage when I can. I don't know how to smooth this out to make a profit every week or every month, so I am just trying to make a profit every year. These are truly amazing times!

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  #12 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
OK - in my original description, setup was defined as a repeatable process that could be executed with little thought...

What I am looking for is something outside of what is generally discussed. Maybe it is for all of us to think about what we'd have to use if we couldn't use what we currently use...


Okay I am with you. I think the key is learning market structure and order flow based trading. Finding where inventory is stacked and trade with the orderflow and using market stucture to establish high probability moves. This is not setup based trading but requires market understanding and orderflow.

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  #13 (permalink)
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“At the bottom of the ocean are many sunken vessels, and in each one there is a chart room filled with charts.”

Saw that in an article by Rick Santelli...thought it would look good in this thread.

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  #14 (permalink)
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If what you're doing right now isn't working, then why not?
It might open your eyes to something new.

Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money
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  #15 (permalink)
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Not really clear where you are going with this but - a 'setup' is generally some combination of price bars and indicator readings happening in an area of interest..often defined by support/resistance levels of some kind. So I f I were not to trade a setup perhaps I would trade general market conditions. For instance if there was an identifiable trend then simply enter in the direction of the trend or if there was a clear consolidation then just fade the extremes with blind entries. Perhaps these would qualify as 'setup free' trading?

Or I might trade the news?

non setup trading would require that you have a good feel for market dynamics. And trade management, money management would be as important as ever

Linds

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  #16 (permalink)
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Linds View Post
Not really clear where you are going with this but - a 'setup' is generally some combination of price bars and indicator readings happening in an area of interest..often defined by support/resistance levels of some kind. So I f I were not to trade a setup perhaps I would trade general market conditions. For instance if there was an identifiable trend then simply enter in the direction of the trend or if there was a clear consolidation then just fade the extremes with blind entries. Perhaps these would qualify as 'setup free' trading?

Or I might trade the news?

non setup trading would require that you have a good feel for market dynamics. And trade management, money management would be as important as ever

Linds

Well - I am not going anywhere specific.

Let's say it's just me. No books, no forums, no Paltalk rooms, no Skype, no web sites selling systems... Let's say there are just line charts. I know nothing about indicators as they do not exist.

What would I do?

It is unlikely I would invent TA. Trust me on that.

What I would do eventually, is ponder the following...

1 - Who are all these people buying and selling this stuff?
2 - What makes the price go up and down?
3 - If I am to buy, why would other people buy after me at a higher price than I brought?

Now - the result of me considering throwing all the other stuff away, including my beloved DOM/T&S - is that I'm thinking about the players and not the methods.

I am sure we all have different ideas on what we'd do in such a scenario...

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  #17 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
this evil beast would be on my back goading me into breaking the golden setup rules. The setup would be the Knight in White shining armor, a brave and valiant soul that would help me slay the psychology dragon.

Setups would have to come from elsewhere. I would travel wide and far in search of pointy hatted wizards who magically brew up setups and let a few privileged Apprentices in on their secrets, usually at $499.99 (a $1000 value) a pop. There would be white wizards and dark wizards. The dark wizards paced the halls of Barnes and Noble offering fruits that turned to dust on the bus home. White wizards would appear magically on the mystic web and Skype rooms and disappear soon after the wand of Paypal had been waved.

From "The Lord of the Ka-Chings"


Sorry.... coudln't resist

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  #18 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Like many other people, I started out trading looking for 'setups'.

To me, a setup was going to be a very specific beast. It would have a beginning (entry), a middle (management) and an end (exit). A setup would consist of a series of rules which I could follow methodically (with my brain switched off) and make money. My foe in this game would be ‘psychology’; this evil beast would be on my back goading me into breaking the golden setup rules. The setup would be the Knight in White shining armor, a brave and valiant soul that would help me slay the psychology dragon.

Setups would have to come from elsewhere. I would travel wide and far in search of pointy hatted wizards who magically brew up setups and let a few privileged Apprentices in on their secrets, usually at $499.99 (a $1000 value) a pop. There would be white wizards and dark wizards. The dark wizards paced the halls of Barnes and Noble offering fruits that turned to dust on the bus home. White wizards would appear magically on the mystic web and Skype rooms and disappear soon after the wand of Paypal had been waved.

If I didn't have a setup, I'd be trading at random, I'd be using my gut, I'd never be consistent. I’d be letting the psychology dragon make me do evil things to my account. Without setups I would never be able to trade. Yet where to find a setup? “Create your own” the peasants cried. Me? Create my own setup? With no wizard by my side, I had yet to even see a working setup. Create something I’ve never seen? I don’t even know the ingredients…

“Oscillator, Indicator toil and trouble;
Averages burn, and candlesticks bubble.”

Off I went to the spell books but only to find a hundred set of ingredients with a thousand ways to tweak them. The combinations and permutations were endless. The light at the end of the tunnel grew further and further away. ..

This is where the story stops for many people. Even worse, this is where the story loops and repeats itself. Everybody’s story is different of course but there are common themes.

What if setups are not the answer?

Let’s say you make a New Year’s resolution for 2012. Let’s say your New Year’s Resolution would be to end your setup quest. This might sound a bit odd. If the repeatable setup doesn’t exist, how will you enter a trade? If you can’t trade setups what can you trade? Let’s just say that setups are your left hand and we are going to tie that hand behind your back for the duration of 2012. With this in mind, what are you going to do?

A year with no ‘setups’. Anyone?



hello dionysus toast. if you don't mind, i would like to put forward a hypothetical situation for you to consider (haha don't worry it's just for fun)

without any tedious elaboration...your nearest and dearest has been taken hostage by the local mafia. to get her back alive you are given a trading task chart only, you have four weeks of trading every day (you must make at least one trade per session on the es).

your goal is to make a net profit after four weeks, otherwise...

using a chart only, how would you devise a plan to get your loved one home and safe?

by the way, liam neeson cheated, he used guns and grenades, this is strictly not allowed thankyou!

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  #19 (permalink)
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mrgufx View Post
hello dionysus toast. if you don't mind, i would like to put forward a hypothetical situation for you to consider (haha don't worry it's just for fun)

without any tedious elaboration...your nearest and dearest has been taken hostage by the local mafia. to get her back alive you are given a trading task chart only, you have four weeks of trading every day (you must make at least one trade per session on the es).

your goal is to make a net profit after four weeks, otherwise...

using a chart only, how would you devise a plan to get your loved one home and safe?

by the way, liam neeson cheated, he used guns and grenades, this is strictly not allowed thankyou!

Well this is a blast from the past...

I'd try to get on the first major swing of the day - wait for momentum and go in at market with a fairly small target - say 3-4 ticks.

Then cut viciously if the momentum faded.

I'd also fake some account statements just in case.

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  #20 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
...

What if setups are not the answer?

Let’s say you make a New Year’s resolution for 2012. Let’s say your New Year’s Resolution would be to end your setup quest. This might sound a bit odd. If the repeatable setup doesn’t exist, how will you enter a trade? If you can’t trade setups what can you trade? Let’s just say that setups are your left hand and we are going to tie that hand behind your back for the duration of 2012. With this in mind, what are you going to do?

A year with no ‘setups’. Anyone?

I'd probably start a company that would sell tools (widgets) to other traders so they can find some setups. Also, i would make sure to use some modern expressions in my tools like order flow, VWAP etc. just to be sure i get the attention of experienced traders as well as newbies.

P.S. Oops! just realise it's an old thread.

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