Greece May Be First EU Default - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Greece May Be First EU Default
Updated: Views / Replies:9,013 / 121
Created: by websouth Attachments:9

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 9  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Greece May Be First EU Default

  #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,641 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,900 given, 6,429 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Nice, that this third-rate Marshall plan propaganda is still around - guess, that's why they call the (hi)story secret

Perhaps the brights that rehash that nonsense should take a look at ECA/MSA (so-called Marshall plan) of 1948-52.
Greek participated with 693,9m $ (UK 3442,8m, France 2806,3m, Germany 1412m).

Per capita and in relation to their GDP the Greeks got multiples of the other countries.
Besides, war damages were only fractions of those in the other countries.


Last edited by choke35; July 17th, 2015 at 05:21 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #72 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,641 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,900 given, 6,429 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

@Big Mike

After the bailout, what do you think about renaming this thread or would you prefer a new thread
for the post-bailout era? (websouth who started the thread hasn't been around for a while.)

Reply With Quote
 
  #73 (permalink)
Elite Member
Omer עומר / Israel י
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader, Proprietary,
Broker/Data: Ninjabrokerage/IQfeed + Synthetic datafeed
Favorite Futures: 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E, 6J, 6S, ES, NQ, YM, AEX, CL, NG, ZB, ZN, ZC, ZS, GC
 
rleplae's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,488 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 1,702 given, 3,690 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



choke35 View Post
@Big Mike

After the bailout, what do you think about renaming this thread or would you prefer a new thread
for the post-bailout era? (websouth who started the thread hasn't been around for a while.)

Don't worry @choke35
sooner or later they will default as the problem will come back

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to rleplae for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,641 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,900 given, 6,429 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


rleplae View Post
Don't worry @choke35
sooner or later they will default as the problem will come back

Touché!

P.S.: But for the time being it could give the topic a better aura

Reply With Quote
 
  #75 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,633 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,745 given, 11,108 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Quoting 
In fact, over the last century, almost all of Greece’s creditors – including Germany – have defaulted or “restructured” the sovereign debts at least once....


choke35 View Post
Nice, that this third-rate Marshall plan propaganda is still around - guess, that's why they call the (hi)story secret ....


Creditors take risks. We do not live in a risk-free world, and taking on risk -- and calculating it wisely -- is how they make their money. Sometimes they will need to write off a loan and move on.

The original lenders to Greece calculated unwisely, assuming, in effect, that the peripheral European countries would be, under the umbrella of the Euro, as safe as the northern countries who were also in the Euro. This was exuberant at best. The various Greek governments calculated very unwisely also, and often, taking on debt with no way to repay it (and sometimes falsifying their true condition.) The present creditors also calculated unwisely, by advancing more loans to Greece, essentially to allow it to pay off the original creditors, a disguised bank bailout.

What needs to be done now is not a matter of pointing fingers or blame (of which there is much to go around), but simply to make a business decision. The loans will not be repaid in full; they may not be paid at all. The creditors will end up writing them down, whether sooner or later.

This is simply business; it happens all the time. In this case, both the creditors and the debtors misjudged the risk. It is better to deescalate this from a question of blame to a matter of recognizing the business reality and making the best decision now.

It is unfortunate that the Greeks have gone through a crushing depression as their governments accepted austerity as a condition for more loans, and it is unfortunate that the taxpayers of the other European countries will have to take a loss on the loans. But there is no way forward except to recognize reality and move on.

This will be settled eventually by the arithmetic.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; July 17th, 2015 at 12:27 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #76 (permalink)
Elite Member
Birmingham UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IG/eSignal
Favorite Futures: Dax
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,336 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11,276 given, 7,090 received


bobwest View Post
This will be settled eventually by the arithmetic.

Maths counts when delusion is exhausted.

Travel Well
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to ratfink for this post:
 
  #77 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,633 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,745 given, 11,108 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

By now, the whole Greece situation may have been beaten to death, but I did see this piece, which brings in some of the overall monetary context of the Euro itself.

Since the Greek government is very left-wing and many of the European governments and institutions negotiating with them are to some degree more conservative, and are, in any case, putting forward a somewhat conservative position regarding debt repayments and economic austerity, it may appear that the issues are left-vs-center or even left-vs-right. It may also appear that some of the economic arguments that are critical of the European institutions are somewhat left-wing or even radical fringe as well -- and perhaps some are. But not all.

This piece is by Greg Mankiw of Harvard, a prominent economist long associated with Republican (conservative) policies in the US; he cites Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago, an American conservative economist of world stature, and Martin Feldstein of Harvard, who was chief economist to Ronald Reagan and no leftist, either. He does not take a position that is hostile to the Greeks, however.

The essence of the argument is that the nature of the Euro itself contributed to the problem. Because the member states no longer had control of their own currencies and because there was no real fiscal union, nor political union, member states had neither the self-determination of separate currencies, nor the fiscal support of rest of the union.

Quoting:

"...Greece finds itself overwhelmed by its accumulated debts. To be sure, it bears primary responsibility. The Greek government borrowed too much, and for years it hid its fiscal problems from its creditors. Once the truth came to light, a large dose of austerity was the only course left. The result was an economic downturn with a quarter of the Greek labor force now unemployed.

"Making matters worse, however, was the common currency. In an earlier era, Greece could have devalued the drachma, making its exports more competitive on world markets. Easy monetary policy would have offset some of the pain from tight fiscal policy. Mr. Friedman and Mr. Feldstein were right: The euro has turned into an economic liability that has exacerbated political tensions. For this, the European elites who pushed for the currency union bear some responsibility....

"Yes, the Greeks have every reason to be contrite. But it might also be wise for the rest of the world to show some mercy."

The full article is worth reading here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/19/business/history-echoes-through-greek-debt-crisis.html?abt=0002&abg=1

The message may not be comfortable, particularly in Europe, and may not be right, but the fact remains that, outside of the EMU, Greece would have had a better path to recovery. (And, realistically, may not have gotten the initial loans in the first place, either. ) It also is possible that their path will end up being out of the Euro anyway, although now the transition, if it comes, will be chaotic at best.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; July 18th, 2015 at 04:12 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
Madrid Spain
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Malthus's Avatar
 
Posts: 235 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 849 given, 672 received

Random austerity measure generator

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Malthus for this post:
 
  #79 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,633 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,745 given, 11,108 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



LOL.

I clicked on the Generate button and got this:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I didn't do a Retry, because this could become too much fun, and there the day would go.

Besides, I'm pretty sure this, or something like it, is already a real part of the plan....

Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #80 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,641 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,900 given, 6,429 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



bobwest View Post

The message may not be comfortable, particularly in Europe, and may not be right, but the fact remains that, outside of the EMU, Greece would have had a better path to recovery. (And, realistically, may not have gotten the initial loans in the first place, either. ) It also is possible that their path will end up being out of the Euro anyway, although now the transition, if it comes, will be chaotic at best.

Bob.

Outside of the EMU, the way would certainly be easier for the Greeks and cheaper for the rest of the E(M)U.
The question Greece is facing is if it would change anything for the better.

In that sense, the brink of national bankruptcy is a chance for Greeks to be honest with themselves.

Concerning chaos:
From the end of the 1990s to the late 200x's, Germany had the highest unemployment since the foundation of the state,
an economy that was depressed by the follow-up costs of the German reunification, a collapsing healthcare and retirement
benefits system, mutinying labor unions, complete industries breaking down (e.g. steel) etc. etc. etc.

For years, there were demonstrations, strikes, strike calls, street fights with the police, and all that.
The international reactions hovered between disinterest, shouting defiance, and open gleefulness.
Nevertheless in the early 2000s a (left-wing) government implemented a massive reform agenda for the labor markets and the
social system to which you can attribute much of Germany's strong economical position today.


Last edited by choke35; July 19th, 2015 at 08:20 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to choke35 for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Greece May Be First EU Default

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
EU Willing to Let Greece Default Under New Plan: Draft Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 21st, 2011 10:20 AM
European Banks Scrambling To Prevent Default by Greece Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 June 24th, 2011 12:30 PM
EU Meeting Must Focus on Greece Despite Scandal Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 16th, 2011 02:40 AM
Why Greece Will End Up Getting More Money From EU Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 10th, 2011 05:10 PM
Greece Has No Need to Default, Restructure: Prime Minister Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 23rd, 2010 08:10 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:26 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.132.197