Greece May Be First EU Default - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Greece May Be First EU Default
Updated: Views / Replies:9,586 / 121
Created: by websouth Attachments:9

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 9  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Greece May Be First EU Default

  #61 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,644 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,904 given, 6,441 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Tymbeline View Post
Most European countries have had coalition governments for most of the last 40 years.

At the moment, Cameron's UK government (with his slender majority of just 12 seats out of 650) is one of only three out of Europe's 28 countries with a single party majority: How coalitions dominate Europe: David Cameron's majority makes UK one of only three single party governments | City A.M.

Bring us more news

Reply With Quote
 
  #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,644 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,904 given, 6,441 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


choke35 View Post
There are x further Greek reform bills to adopt and implement in the weeks and months ahead.
This Syriza farce - half a year of talking large and whiny failure to act up to now - can't go on forever.
Either a government has a majority and works with it or it is told to get packing.

As anticipated the Interior Secretary has started talks about early elections in September or October
in order to ensure a parliamentary majority for the reform process (or against?).

Reply With Quote
 
  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,644 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,904 given, 6,441 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Draghi in the ECB press conference:

To the best of his knowledge, the ECB will be paid by Greece on July 20th
as well as the IMF will also be paid (!).

Reply With Quote
 
  #64 (permalink)
Elite Member
Madrid Spain
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Malthus's Avatar
 
Posts: 235 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 849 given, 673 received


choke35 View Post
Draghi in the ECB press conference:

To the best of his knowledge, the ECB will be paid by Greece on July 20th
as well as the IMF will also be paid (!).

They agreed to the conditions for the new bailout so I suppose ECB money is flowing again (which they won't be able to return in a year or two and we'll be back to square one again. Then they'll exchange even more sovereignty for money until we have the United States of Europe, without a single war nor referendum).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Malthus for this post:
 
  #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,635 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,759 given, 11,115 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros, "over one week," and suggested strongly that ELA will continue.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:


Quoting 
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, suggested on Thursday that Greece might be better off leaving the euro, saying that a temporary exit from the common currency could give the country additional flexibility to reduce its crippling debt load.
....

There has long been an influential group of German economists who argue that Greece does not belong in the eurozone and that it would be better off using its own currency. In recent days, Mr. Schäuble appears to have come around to that way of thinking.

The most vocal of those advocating Greece’s exit may be Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute in Munich, an influential economic research organization. In a statement on Tuesday, Mr. Sinn reiterated his longstanding argument that Greece should adopt its own currency, which it could devalue to make its export products and tourism industry more competitive.

“An exit is the only option,” Mr. Sinn said.

From: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html...top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; July 16th, 2015 at 12:46 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #66 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,644 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 4,904 given, 6,441 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bobwest View Post
The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:



From: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html...top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.

From the political perspective the blocks that the Italian Finance Minister has described after the weekend
seem to lead the same way:

EMU19 - Greece = EMU18
thereof 3 countries pro Greece: France, Italy, Cyprus
and 15 countries that "had to be convinced to compromise" ...

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to choke35 for this post:
 
  #67 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,602 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bobwest View Post
The ECB has announced it has increased emergency loans to 900 million Euros, "over one week," and suggested strongly that ELA will continue.

Meanwhile, there is important sentiment in Germany that Greece should just leave -- in fact, that there is really no long-term choice:



From: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/world/europe/eurozone-greece-debt-germany.html...top-news&WT.nav=top-news

I would not call the issue settled, although it has moved forward in the short term.

Bob.


I do not think that there is a contradicton between the solution adopted this week-end and an exit of Greece from the Euro area.

Greece has a highly unprofessional government, which has repeatedly insulted the countries that have already come to help Greece in the past. This has lead to an emotional debate, where the Euro - which is just a currency - has become the symbol for being part of Europe. Of course this is nonsense.

After Mr. Tsipras refused to come to an agreement with the creditors and called a referendum instead, Greece was close to economic suicide with the 4 largest banks on the brink of collapse. Under such circumstances there was no time to prepare an orderly exit from the Euro. A new currency needs to be prepared ....

Therefore immediate action was necessary to moderate the impact of the Kamikaze policies of the current government. The alternative would have been a Greccident, not a Grexit. This would probably have led to severe short term implications for the Greek population.

Now let the emotions settle down, and the work can start for a viable solution. Both Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Sinn have suggested that a Grexit might be the best medicine for Greece. A return to the Drachme would lead to a devaluation of the Greek currency and make Greek products more competitive abroad.

I am not a Neo-Keynesian, but let me cite Paul Krugman:

"Would Greek exit from the euro work as well as Iceland’s highly successful devaluation in 2008-09, or Argentina’s abandonment of its one-peso-one-dollar policy in 2001-02? Maybe not — but consider the alternatives. Unless Greece receives really major debt relief, and possibly even then, leaving the euro offers the only plausible escape route from its endless economic nightmare.

And let’s be clear: if Greece ends up leaving the euro, it won’t mean that the Greeks are bad Europeans. Greece’s debt problem reflected irresponsible lending as well as irresponsible borrowing, and in any case the Greeks have paid for their government’s sins many times over. If they can’t make a go of Europe’s common currency, it’s because that common currency offers no respite for countries in trouble. The important thing now is to do whatever it takes to end the bleeding."


Full text available here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.h...ment=3&pgtype=collection

It seems that Mr. Schäuble and Paul Krugman have a common idea which medicine would help. Of course, Greece would require another cut of its debt to be able to thrive again.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #68 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,635 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,759 given, 11,115 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Fat Tails View Post
I do not think that there is a contradicton between the solution adopted this week-end and an exit of Greece from the Euro area.

Greece has a highly unprofessional government, which has repeatedly insulted the countries that have already come to help Greece in the past. This has lead to an emotional debate, where the Euro - which is just a currency - has become the symbol for being part of Europe. Of course this is nonsense.

After Mr. Tsipras refused to come to an agreement with the creditors and called a referendum instead, Greece was close to economic suicide with the 4 largest banks on the brink of collapse. Under such circumstances there was no time to prepare an orderly exit from the Euro. A new currency needs to be prepared ....

Therefore immediate action was necessary to moderate the impact of the Kamikaze policies of the current government. The alternative would have been a Greccident, not a Grexit. This would probably have led to severe short term implications for the Greek population.

Now let the emotions settle down, and the work can start for a viable solution. Both Mr. Schäuble and Mr. Sinn have suggested that a Grexit might be the best medicine for Greece. A return to the Drachme would lead to a devaluation of the Greek currency and make Greek products more competitive abroad.

I am not a Neo-Keynesian, but let me cite Paul Krugman:

"Would Greek exit from the euro work as well as Iceland’s highly successful devaluation in 2008-09, or Argentina’s abandonment of its one-peso-one-dollar policy in 2001-02? Maybe not — but consider the alternatives. Unless Greece receives really major debt relief, and possibly even then, leaving the euro offers the only plausible escape route from its endless economic nightmare.

And let’s be clear: if Greece ends up leaving the euro, it won’t mean that the Greeks are bad Europeans. Greece’s debt problem reflected irresponsible lending as well as irresponsible borrowing, and in any case the Greeks have paid for their government’s sins many times over. If they can’t make a go of Europe’s common currency, it’s because that common currency offers no respite for countries in trouble. The important thing now is to do whatever it takes to end the bleeding."


Full text available here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.h...ment=3&pgtype=collection

It seems that Mr. Schäuble and Paul Krugman have a common idea which medicine would help. Of course, Greece would require another cut of its debt to be able to thrive again.

Indeed, and I think you have made exactly the right points. At the time of the negotiations, Greece apparently had not given any thought to returning to its own currency, and had made no preparations for it. They also did not recognize it as an option, which in practice meant that they would end up having to accept whatever terms they could get, a fact that they did not recognize until fairly late.

I think that, in fact, the only viable ending will include significant write-off of the debt, which is truly not payable, and Greece returning to its own currency and the ability to manage its own economy.

(Well, it is hard to have confidence in their ability to manage anything, , but a prerequisite would be the ability to issue their own currency, at the least.)

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; July 17th, 2015 at 07:40 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #69 (permalink)
Elite Member
Montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker/Data: IB Canada/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: TF, CL
 
Posts: 261 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 288 given, 332 received

Save banks, but don't save a country's worth of people.

https://philebersole.wordpress.com/2015/07/13/banks-get-bailed-out-greece-doesnt/

Reply With Quote
 
  #70 (permalink)
Elite Member
Montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker/Data: IB Canada/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: TF, CL
 
Posts: 261 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 288 given, 332 received


https://consortiumnews.com/2015/07/12/secret-history-of-the-greek-crisis/


Quoting 
In fact, over the last century, almost all of Greece’s creditors – including Germany – have defaulted or “restructured” the sovereign debts at least once. Some have done so several times. As economist Thomas Piketty told the German Newspaper Die Zeit, on July 10, “Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts.”

Germany’s Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle) came about not only because of German hard work (and the contribution of immigrant labor) or even the result of about $15 billion (in today’s money) America gave Germany under the Marshall Plan. These were essential, but most economists would hold that at least as important was that, in 1953, West Germany was forgiven 50 percent of its foreign debt and allowed to “restructure” domestic debts.

Thus, the West German government was able to forge the new Germany without the burden of past debt, making it at least ironic that Germany now takes such a strong stand on Greek debt repayment. As Piketty wrote, “It has no standing to lecture other nations.” This is one “secret” that Merkel and others don’t want to remember.

And Germany was not alone. Most of the countries now lined up against Greece have handled their debts by defaulting, having their debts forgiven or devaluing their currency.


Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Greece May Be First EU Default

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
EU Willing to Let Greece Default Under New Plan: Draft Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 21st, 2011 10:20 AM
European Banks Scrambling To Prevent Default by Greece Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 June 24th, 2011 12:30 PM
EU Meeting Must Focus on Greece Despite Scandal Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 16th, 2011 02:40 AM
Why Greece Will End Up Getting More Money From EU Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 10th, 2011 05:10 PM
Greece Has No Need to Default, Restructure: Prime Minister Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 23rd, 2010 08:10 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:04 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-15 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.61.66