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$5,000,000 account earning $3000 to $5,000 daily. is it possible?


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$5,000,000 account earning $3000 to $5,000 daily. is it possible?

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  #101 (permalink)
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
Experience: Advanced
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sysot1t View Post
we finally agree!! ... with one caveat.. sticking to one's setup (when that setup has no basis or foundation or basically no change of ever being even remotely profitable) is suicidal at best... so I would say, learning the instrument, finding a setup that works and then sticking to its probabilities without changing, and doing the homework/hardwork part... there is nothing in this business without hardwork (or any business) and by that I dont mean killing yourself learning something (it should be innate or otherwise you wont succeed at it and it is best to find something else to make you $$$) but using the time wisely to learn and being diligent about it.

I see that @sysot1t beat me to it. I can only +1 his post.

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  #102 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Lornz View Post
@MWinfrey

If you have been at this for so long without succeeding, I would say that intraday discretionary trading is not for you. Most that have an aptitude for such trading, usually succeed fairly quickly. They only need to refine their risk/money/trade management...

This leads me to my final point, why would an unprofitable trader give advice in this thread?
It escapes me why someone would have so little regard for other's well-being that they would give advice they are unsure if works themselves... When I first started trading, I did not make a post for several years.

@Lornz - you seem to contradict yourself here, or maybe I'm confused about how you trade. I had thought you would count yourself as an "intraday discretionary trader"? But here you say that this is something you either succeed at quickly or not at all. But then in the last paragraph you state that you did not give advice (and by extension from your statement here - were not profitable) for "several years". I'm assuming I'm wrong about you being an intraday discretionary trader? I enjoy reading many of your posts so am interested in your views here.

Regardless - I'm curious as to the source of your opinion about intraday discretionary traders either succeeding quickly due to an aptitude or not at all. I strive to become a consistently profitable, intraday discretionary trader and I have found that after 2 years of work at it I'm much better than I was in the beginning and what stands between me and profitability are the manifestations of what is essentially a self-control issue. And so my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

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  #103 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


Surly View Post
my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

not him, ... but for what is worth... by structured analysis of price action I will assume you mean really technical analysis and understanding market structure itself.. not as much emphasis on learning price action itself.. and form that case, I say that as time progresses and you put in the hours of actually trading and building confidence, and your account, and improve your mind... you make more and more profit while trading... that is my belief.. and I have put it into practice...

an intraday discretionary trader is anyone who is in cash by end of session.. I prefer to be a hybrid... since I do leave option and fx positions open for as long as I believe conditions are near or close the same for which I entered... but with futures, I dont have that patience.. too leveraged, and too easily to wipe an account unless one is hedged the right way.. and to hedge costs $$$$ and no sense on spending that money when I dont need to..

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  #104 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Ahhh... ok, then that makes sense. But it makes me even more curious to hear his answer/opinion about his statements about either you get it quick or you don't.

Incidentally, I do recognize the varying distinctions between TA vs. Price Action and indicators vs. no indicators, etc, etc ad infinitum. However, for me, I simply draw the line at fundamental analysis vs no fundamental analysis. In other words, if you don't use fundamental analysis then (to me), you're a technical trader whether you use market delta, price action, indicators, whatever. I understand this distinction can be more refined but I find that at a gross level, this is a major and meaningful distinction between discretionary trading styles (as opposed to the distinctions between spread trading and directional trading or automated vs. non-automated, etc).

I'm curious - how do you make the distinction (or how to you distinguish) between technical analysis and price action?

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  #105 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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Surly View Post
Ahhh... ok, then that makes sense. But it makes me even more curious to hear his answer/opinion about his statements about either you get it quick or you don't.

Incidentally, I do recognize the varying distinctions between TA vs. Price Action and indicators vs. no indicators, etc, etc ad infinitum. However, for me, I simply draw the line at fundamental analysis vs no fundamental analysis. In other words, if you don't use fundamental analysis then (to me), you're a technical trader whether you use market delta, price action, indicators, whatever. I understand this distinction can be more refined but I find that at a gross level, this is a major and meaningful distinction between discretionary trading styles (as opposed to the distinctions between spread trading and directional trading or automated vs. non-automated, etc).

I'm curious - how do you make the distinction (or how to you distinguish) between technical analysis and price action?

PA is pure PA... Al Brooks Style... TA is just being a technical trader aided by indicators, you dont pay attention to the fundamentals...

which BTW, one should still pay attention to.. if anything because things always revert to the mean.. but an intraday disc trader doesnt care 100% about fundamentals... I use them as good to know... I mean, if you are trading FX and dont look at the macro's... then you expose yourself to risk... for example.. the change on view of the SF gov to intervene... same applies if trading options, or futures... they are hedging instruments... used mainly by those that are following fundamentals.. best to understand why they might jump into the market..

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  #106 (permalink)
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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Surly View Post
@Lornz - you seem to contradict yourself here, or maybe I'm confused about how you trade. I had thought you would count yourself as an "intraday discretionary trader"? But here you say that this is something you either succeed at quickly or not at all. But then in the last paragraph you state that you did not give advice (and by extension from your statement here - were not profitable) for "several years". I'm assuming I'm wrong about you being an intraday discretionary trader? I enjoy reading many of your posts so am interested in your views here.

Regardless - I'm curious as to the source of your opinion about intraday discretionary traders either succeeding quickly due to an aptitude or not at all. I strive to become a consistently profitable, intraday discretionary trader and I have found that after 2 years of work at it I'm much better than I was in the beginning and what stands between me and profitability are the manifestations of what is essentially a self-control issue. And so my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

I often contradict myself, I wouldn't want you to figure out how I trade...

First of all, I did not claim to be unprofitable for so long. I just felt that I had a lot to learn still. I've always aimed for perfection, and, although I quickly turned profitable, I did not make a lot right away either.

I have received several PMs during the months I've been active on this board, and sometime in the near future, I will finally write a more detailed post about my background.

I don't like blanket statements, and I apologize for making one. I meant to say "discretionary PA trading". I fully believe this, and it did not take me many months to get consistently profitable. Being able to read the tape/DOM is very intuitive and not something you can be taught by others. The same goes for trading off a clean chart, there are not really that many patterns to look for - and once you find them, you will know. Most get lost in a maze of confusion trying to make it into a science, something it is not.

All other kinds of trading can be learnt and do not follow the same timeline. One can succeed quickly, but one can also spend years trying to find the right "potion". I have spent years doing various statistical analysis and most of my efforts have been dead-ends.

To be fair, I should disclaim that I position traded (based on fundamentals/expectation) stocks for a few years before I first tried to trade futures. I also made a living off sports betting while in high school. I have always been good at dealing with uncertainty. In fact, I quite enjoy it. Therefore I have not had much difficulty with the psychological aspect of trading....

Except for the first couple of months, I have not used any indicators. Thus I cannot really speak of the validity of them, I have just never met anyone successfully trading that way. It seems you are always "just" a little behind, but it looks perfect in hindsight. Of course, even a MA crossover works during volatile times (like the past couple of months).

However, I do have spreadsheet that is dear to me. And I also look at market internals and various relative strength relationships, thus one could say that I use "indicators". I just don't believe that manipulating time series into beautiful collages is the way to go. I also do everything else one is not supposed to do... Like trading during the first few minutes and during news releases, try to predict the market and I even pay attention to the news.

In fact, the only thing I never do (while trading) - is to average losers...

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  #107 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Thanks @Lornz! I appreciate you taking the time to answer my question. Glad to hear you didn't have to suffer through a couple years of failure on your journey of learning to make a living trading - I can tell you that it is not pleasant.

Having the background you do seems to have been a good preparation for trading - certainly the experience of sports betting at a young age must have been really helpful. "Betting" is really what trading is all about. If you are going to be consistently successful at any kind of Betting, you are going to be well suited to the mental orientation you have to have towards trading. Coming from the background I do (science and then land development) has given me no preparation for dealing with uncertainty. And it kicks the crap out of me for sure.

Finally, I really hope you're wrong about either being successful quickly or not at all because I sure as heck have not been successful quickly.... :puke:

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #108 (permalink)
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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Surly View Post
Thanks @Lornz! I appreciate you taking the time to answer my question. Glad to hear you didn't have to suffer through a couple years of failure on your journey of learning to make a living trading - I can tell you that it is not pleasant.

Having the background you do seems to have been a good preparation for trading - certainly the experience of sports betting at a young age must have been really helpful. "Betting" is really what trading is all about. If you are going to be consistently successful at any kind of Betting, you are going to be well suited to the mental orientation you have to have towards trading. Coming from the background I do (science and then land development) has given me no preparation for dealing with uncertainty. And it kicks the crap out of me for sure.

Finally, I really hope you're wrong about either being successful quickly or not at all because I sure as heck have not been successful quickly.... :puke:

Don't let any idiots on the Internet tell you what's possible or not, especially me!

I've had epiphanies years after I first started; this is not a static vocation. I hate blanket statements, and I resent myself for making one.

My point was simply that it shouldn't take too long to figure out if one is capable of trading a "clean" chart and/or DOM/T&S. This is more comparable to a sport than an intellectual activity. I think ADD is a requirement!

However, with regard to other kinds of trading; One might find/develop a certain formula/indicator or model that makes all the difference at any point in time....

But, one must carefully consider how long one is willing to continue one's search for an answer that may never come.... It's a question of interest, I guess.

2 years isn't really that bad, it took me a bit longer to develop my first mechanical system.
My gawd, man -- suck it up!

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  #109 (permalink)
tradetree
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Lornz View Post

Except for the first couple of months, I have not used any indicators. Thus I cannot really speak of the validity of them, I have just never met anyone successfully trading that way. It seems you are always "just" a little behind, but it looks perfect in hindsight. Of course, even a MA crossover works during volatile times (like the past couple of months).

However, I do have spreadsheet that is dear to me. And I also look at market internals and various relative strength relationships, thus one could say that I use "indicators". I just don't believe that manipulating time series into beautiful collages is the way to go. I also do everything else one is not supposed to do... Like trading during the first few minutes and during news releases, try to predict the market and I even pay attention to the news.

...

Lornz, This was hard to follow. :-) You do not use indicators, but then you do. But then you're also sure others who use indicators are "a little bit behind" and you have "not met anyone successful trading that way." Sorry if my head is spinning. I just wanted to clarify.

I guess my view is that either you are a trader of fundamentals or you are a technical trader. You can also try and mix the two, but usually you are really relying on one vs. the other. If you are a technical-discretionary trader, you still really have rules, they are just in your head. If you are a technical-mechanical trader, you put your rules into a computer.

What I have never seen is a technical-discretionary trader that had any advantage over a good mechanical system. I have seen fundamental traders (like Buffett) that are better at utilizing news. In short, there are good technical-discretionary traders and good mechanical system traders. The one exception to this that I mentioned is if there is news that you are using to change your rules in the discretionary case. In that case you are mixing fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Then I would agree that the human is superior at integrating news. But if you are a pure technical-discretionary trader, then you either don't stick to your own rules, or else you have not made your rules conscious. (I am also skeptical that traders do well anticipating news, because insider-knowledge discounts the news ahead of you and me).

Fundamental traders are by necessity long term position traders. This is the only way the "fundamentals" can be given expression, over time. So if you are speaking about day trading. then in my experience you can daytrade technical-discretionary or technical-mechanical. And I have not seen an advantage for one over the other in that case: only one trader who is better than another. - Assuming the discretionary trader sticks to his system and the mechanical system operator sticks to his, you see the same results. Naturally if you randomly apply rules, you will get random results. Not a plus that I can see in that! :-)

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  #110 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Lornz View Post
2 years isn't really that bad, it took me a bit longer to develop my first mechanical system.
My gawd, man -- suck it up!

Love it brother - love it. This is the kind of stuff that makes bmt fun once in a while.

And yep, totally agree on the "no blanket statements" - easiest way to spot a poser is when they make one...

keep rockin it.

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  #111 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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tradetree View Post
Lornz, This was hard to follow. :-) You do not use indicators, but then you do. But then you're also sure others who use indicators are "a little bit behind" and you have "not met anyone successful trading that way." Sorry if my head is spinning. I just wanted to clarify.

I guess my view is that either you are a trader of fundamentals or you are a technical trader. You can also try and mix the two, but usually you are really relying on one vs. the other. If you are a technical-discretionary trader, you still really have rules, they are just in your head. If you are a technical-mechanical trader, you put your rules into a computer.

What I have never seen is a technical-discretionary trader that had any advantage over a good mechanical system. I have seen fundamental traders (like Buffett) that are better at utilizing news. In short, there are good technical-discretionary traders and good mechanical system traders. The one exception to this that I mentioned is if there is news that you are using to change your rules in the discretionary case. In that case you are mixing fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Then I would agree that the human is superior at integrating news. But if you are a pure technical-discretionary trader, then you either don't stick to your own rules, or else you have not made your rules conscious. (I am also skeptical that traders do well anticipating news, because insider-knowledge discounts the news ahead of you and me).

Fundamental traders are by necessity long term position traders. This is the only way the "fundamentals" can be given expression, over time. So if you are speaking about day trading. then in my experience you can daytrade technical-discretionary or technical-mechanical. And I have not seen an advantage for one over the other in that case: only one trader who is better than another. - Assuming the discretionary trader sticks to his system and the mechanical system operator sticks to his, you see the same results. Naturally if you randomly apply rules, you will get random results. Not a plus that I can see in that! :-)

technical trader, fundamental trader... who cares... you are either a trader or you are not... what you use to create your opinion has no relevance on the "type" of trader... I use whatever allows me to form an opinion or view on a given market... some technical indicators and some fundamentals...does that make me favor one over the other? not really.. what I care about is... do they support or disprove my view and why or how? that is it... how to they help shape my conviction is what I care about, and based on that conviction and the level of "confirmation" I get from my analysis or the "indicators", then I determine my size based on my risk parameters and make my bet...

to me, the only reason for which no-one today can truly take a system that combines the human aspect (evaluation based on knowledge and understanding) is because there is no rule set that can replace the human side.. one can certainly find somethings that can be made mechanical that could take place all the time, or often enough to be significant and provide some sort of edge to trade automatically, but that requires years and lots and lots of man hours invested to find and create.. if it was simple to be mechanical, it would be done even by all the simpletons of the world.... and also, because the tools are not yet there..

oh, btw... Buffett is not a trader... he is a value investor.. when he goes after a company, it is due to fundamentals... he is not after trading profits or speculating, but after yielding above average ROI from his investments... now, if you said Soros.. then yes.. there is a fundamentals trader that speculates on commodities, futures, bonds and stocks.. but Buffett?

anyhow.. all my opinion, nothing else..

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  #112 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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sysot1t View Post
..
oh, btw... Buffett is not a trader... he is a value investor.. when he goes after a company, it is due to fundamentals... he is not after trading profits or speculating, but after yielding above average ROI from his investments...
..

Buffet trades derivaties, option too.
Wisdom of Warren Buffett: Defuse Derivatives? Risks

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  #113 (permalink)
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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tradetree View Post
Lornz, This was hard to follow. :-) You do not use indicators, but then you do. But then you're also sure others who use indicators are "a little bit behind" and you have "not met anyone successful trading that way." Sorry if my head is spinning. I just wanted to clarify.

I guess my view is that either you are a trader of fundamentals or you are a technical trader. You can also try and mix the two, but usually you are really relying on one vs. the other. If you are a technical-discretionary trader, you still really have rules, they are just in your head. If you are a technical-mechanical trader, you put your rules into a computer.

What I have never seen is a technical-discretionary trader that had any advantage over a good mechanical system. I have seen fundamental traders (like Buffett) that are better at utilizing news. In short, there are good technical-discretionary traders and good mechanical system traders. The one exception to this that I mentioned is if there is news that you are using to change your rules in the discretionary case. In that case you are mixing fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Then I would agree that the human is superior at integrating news. But if you are a pure technical-discretionary trader, then you either don't stick to your own rules, or else you have not made your rules conscious. (I am also skeptical that traders do well anticipating news, because insider-knowledge discounts the news ahead of you and me).

Fundamental traders are by necessity long term position traders. This is the only way the "fundamentals" can be given expression, over time. So if you are speaking about day trading. then in my experience you can daytrade technical-discretionary or technical-mechanical. And I have not seen an advantage for one over the other in that case: only one trader who is better than another. - Assuming the discretionary trader sticks to his system and the mechanical system operator sticks to his, you see the same results. Naturally if you randomly apply rules, you will get random results. Not a plus that I can see in that! :-)

Haha, are you trying to ridicule my magnificent post?
I apologize if I was coming across as arrogant and for being imprecise!

The particular approach I was referring to is pure intraday momentum trading. I don't need any technical indicators for that. As I said, I use market breadth indicators and other RS measures. My point was more that I don't have anything on my charts, but I use a spreadsheet for tracking the broader picture. I also use statistical analysis to help set targets based on information about gyrations and other metrics...

I only need a DOM and a chart to trade, though. The other stuff just increases my profitability... Especially by helping me to hold my runners much longer.

As for fundamental analysis. I am just trying to "read" the sentiment. I don't really try to predict a certain outcome, but I make up hypothetical scenarios to help me to execute better. It's more in the realm of game theory than fundamental analysis really.

But you are right, though; I am sure my brain is just good at modelling the market, but I haven't been able to consciously quantify it. I hope to be able to do some one day, but until then I guess I just have to keep doing the work manually...

I will write a little more about this in my newly created journal, and therefore I will not elaborate more at the moment.

I also want say that I agree with @sysot1t; trading is about making money, it doesn't really matter what tools one uses! (Except for a gun, maybe )

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  #114 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


cory View Post
Buffet trades derivaties, option too.
Wisdom of Warren Buffett: Defuse Derivatives? Risks

everyone who wants to hedge risk, trades derivatives... which includes options btw.. is not like options are its own class.. anything that "derives" its value from the underlying is a derivative..

"Derivatives were covered in Buffett’s 2008 and 2009 shareholder letters. Although derivatives are extremely dangerous, Buffett trades them in a way that major risks are defused"...

I didnt say the guy was stupid, but rather that he was a value investor... any value investor will hedge their risk... or wait, his operations also trade FX in volumes.. does that make him a currency trader now?

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  #115 (permalink)
 wldman 
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you tend to be a typing contradiction...saying one thing and then another. Everyone, if Lornz can't do it or has never seen it then it must not occur! You actually said Buffett and trader in the same sentence. Then you go on to classify people AND not only tell them what they do but also how you view their approach. I anticipate your posts for the inherent humor of your delusion.

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  #116 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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wldman View Post
you tend to be a typing contradiction...saying one thing and then another. Everyone, if Lornz can't do it or has never seen it then it must not occur! You actually said Buffett and trader in the same sentence. Then you go on to classify people AND not only tell them what they do but also how you view their approach. I anticipate your posts for the inherent humor of your delusion.

@wldman, FYI... only three people have mentioned Buffett on this thread, and within the context of what kind of trader he is, and that is @tradetree, @cory, and myself... and I dont think anyone has classified anyone, but rather we have expressed our views as to what kind of traders there might be...

but I think we have gone off the subject quite a lot by now... and we are now just raising arguments for the sake of arguments, which is getting boring..

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  #117 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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I would like to say, that if someone is going to mention Buffet in a sentence, the inclusion of the word 'tool' should be in that sentence somewhere.

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  #118 (permalink)
 wldman 
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is a tool. That said, I own more BRK than any other equity. Yes, sysot1t, three of you mentioned Buffet, now 5 of us. I was going after Lornz because of the percieved tone of his posts. I will stop that though as it is a waste of time. Any of you can type anything you want. Trade well guys.

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  #119 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


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I would like to say, that if someone is going to mention Buffet in a sentence, the inclusion of the word 'tool' should be in that sentence somewhere.

i dont follow the joke... elaborate a bit please...

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  #120 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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I don't need to defend anyone. But why insult people? I am guilty of it, but it is a matter of who is right and who is wrong and we all are.

Chill out, no need to call anyone 'tools' and just help us all become better traders and people.

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  #121 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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wldman View Post
is a tool. That said, I own more BRK than any other equity. Yes, sysot1t, three of you mentioned Buffet, now 5 of us. I was going after Lornz because of the percieved tone of his posts. I will stop that though as it is a waste of time. Any of you can type anything you want. Trade well guys.

I still dont get the tool reference... am at a lost...

you own BRK.. great... now, would that be class A or B? just curious...never met anyone that would brag about owning BRK.A/B that actually had it.. not saying you dont btw.. just that those that I know do, keep it quiet because it usually means a good junk of their portfolio and they do it as a value play for their long, long, long term side...

also, it is hard to detect tones on posts, so please keep in mind that any "tone" perceived is usually the result of one's own bias.. at least IMO...

I dont always take @Lornz seriously, given he likes to bust balls.. and also, because he is a foreigner and his native language is not english, I cut him some slack on this translations per say... I say, let's see how his journal plays out and then discuss any disagreements about points of views on his thread...

also, keep in mind we(and by that I mean all of us) dont have to agree... but we should always be respectful of each others opinions and argue on that level, without getting personal, right? just my 2 cents... it gets boring when things become a flame war per say.. it takes value away from the arguments.. and there is nothing to be learned in the end.... but that is just my opinion...

signing off this thread... I still think is no longer heading anywhere...

trade well (I like that, I am borrowing it going forward )

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  #122 (permalink)
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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wldman View Post
you tend to be a typing contradiction...saying one thing and then another. Everyone, if Lornz can't do it or has never seen it then it must not occur! You actually said Buffett and trader in the same sentence. Then you go on to classify people AND not only tell them what they do but also how you view their approach. I anticipate your posts for the inherent humor of your delusion.


wldman View Post
is a tool. That said, I own more BRK than any other equity. Yes, sysot1t, three of you mentioned Buffet, now 5 of us. I was going after Lornz because of the percieved tone of his posts. I will stop that though as it is a waste of time. Any of you can type anything you want. Trade well guys.

First of all, I did not speak of Buffet. If you are going to criticize my posts, at least get your facts straight.

Secondly, I have not classified anyone but myself? I only tried to clear up any confusion regarding my previous statements. What I was trying to convey was that if one is capable of scalping off a clean chart and a DOM/T&S, it really shouldn't take that long to succeed at it. If there are any other successful scalpers here that disagree, I welcome their responses. It seems that this kind of trading is more comparable to high-performance sports than an intellectual exercise. Having ADD also seems to be a positive attribute.

I then said the standard indicators, in my view, tend to be lagging price itself and I deem them worthless for this type of trading. Am I not allowed to share what has worked for me without being chastised?

With regard to my tone, I specifically apologized if I were coming across as arrogant. Keep in mind that English is my second language. But, that being said, I am a student of philosophy and appreciate polemics. I think that aggressive, but relevant, discussion is the fastest way to increase both of the debaters' understanding of the matter being argued. I later apologized, because I should have learned by now that such discussions never materialize on trading forums - it always degrades into personal attacks.

Why wouldn't you want to contradict my statements with facts? And if you can't prove me wrong, how can you say that my views are incorrect?

I like to thank that I have contributed some value to this board on the months I have been active. I have answered quite a few questions, both on the forum and the various PMs I have received. I have written quite extensively about my background, and, earlier this year, I even posted my trades in advance in the CL room. Netting 120 ticks in a couple of hours (if my memory serves me correct). I am sure someone has the records to prove that.

I have politely responded to your condescending posts a couple of times now, but if you have nothing of value to contribute to the discussion - then I beg of you to refrain from continue posting. At least, I will refrain from answering!

And, lastly: Yes, my posts often are semi-ironical, but that does not mean that they are meaningless. Only indicators are that!

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  #123 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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sysot1t View Post
i dont follow the joke... elaborate a bit please...

I'm not involved in any of the back and fourths here. I see my attempt at 'levity' didn't come off the way it was meant.

With regards to Buffet, I was referring to his latest desires to want to become a political animal with his HYPOCRITICAL ideas on taxing.

If you hadn't seen it on the news I guess it wouldn't be obvious.

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  #124 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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sysot1t View Post
I still dont get the tool reference... am at a lost...

Also to add, my point was an attempt at a joke, saying that if anyone uses the word 'Buffet' in a sentence, that Buffet should also be called a 'tool,' in the same sentence.

Basically, what I am saying is that I find Buffet annoying. Not calling anyone HERE a tool, I was trying to refer to Buffet as a 'tool.'

I don't know if that is clear now or not.... Do you get what I am saying?

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  #125 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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forrestang View Post
Also to add, my point was an attempt at a joke, saying that if anyone uses the word 'Buffet' in a sentence, that Buffet should also be called a 'tool,' in the same sentence.

Basically, what I am saying is that I find Buffet annoying. Not calling anyone HERE a tool, I was trying to refer to Buffet as a 'tool.'

I don't know if that is clear now or not.... Do you get what I am saying?

What if I were to call you a tool, @forrestang?

I feel that there isn't enough hostility in this thread...

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  #126 (permalink)
 Surly 
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Buffet is obviously not a "tool". He's a smart guy and if he has views about taxation, it might be best to fully consider them before placing them into the static (and by definition, potentially removed from fact) context of opinion. His views on taxation are actually quite forward thinking and based on a wide view of the economic, political, and social situation we all find ourselves in (that is, being human on this planet).

Ask yourself, without the economic, political, and social system, would any of Buffet's or anyone else's wealth be possible or meaningful (please consider the literal definition of both those words)? The answer is no. The economic, political, and social system necessarily (again, by definition) requires that some are at the bottom and some are at the top. Those at the top derive a disproportional benefit from the economic, political, and social system (disproportionate to their contribution). A progressive system of taxation merely reflects this fact and seeks to correct it - buffet knows this and it forms the basis of his opinion. There is absolutely nothing hypocritical about it - the system of taxation is simply one aspect of the playing field. Once the rules are set, compete to your greatest ability - that's not hypocrisy, that is how any economic, political, social system works.

Sorry forrestang... I just had to finally jot something down against the majority political opinion prevailing on bmt...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #127 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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Lornz View Post
What if I were to call you a tool, @forrestang?

I feel that there isn't enough hostility in this thread...

I have an idea...

If anyone thinks either I, Buffet or @Lornz is a tool, please respond by thanking this post!


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  #128 (permalink)
 forrestang 
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Surly View Post

Sorry forrestang... I just had to finally jot something down against the majority political opinion prevailing on bmt...

Nothing wrong w/that bud.

Buffet is still a tool....

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  #129 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
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forrestang View Post
Also to add, my point was an attempt at a joke, saying that if anyone uses the word 'Buffet' in a sentence, that Buffet should also be called a 'tool,' in the same sentence.

Basically, what I am saying is that I find Buffet annoying. Not calling anyone HERE a tool, I was trying to refer to Buffet as a 'tool.'

I don't know if that is clear now or not.... Do you get what I am saying?

I get it now, I read a bit about his comments about taxes, and how there is a bill now to increase taxes following his view... I wasn't able to associate it, hence why I asked... I did get the point that it was a joke, just wasn't sure what or how, hence why I asked

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  #130 (permalink)
 wldman 
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I get what you are saying, but there are plenty of tools everywhere.

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  #131 (permalink)
 wldman 
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"you own BRK.. great... now, would that be class A or B? just curious...never met anyone that would brag about owning BRK.A/B that actually had it.. not saying you dont btw.. just that those that I know do, keep it quiet because it usually means a good junk of their portfolio and they do it as a value play for their long, long, long term side..."

BRK'A from before there where B shares because I had the view then then that I still hold today...there is nobody better on the value side than Buffett.

BRK'B from when the shelf came off of the initial offering since I didn't have to invest like $75,000 each time.

Why in the world would someone not want to admit to owning BRK...even now when their chairman seems to have lost his mind, failed to understand basic tax law, and miscalculated simple math? Acting a fool for the purpouse of smootching the hinny of a politician definetly gets you the rank of tool.

So the essence of the comment stating that I owned BRK was to illustrate that in spite of his foolish comments I still have enough faith in Buffet, the tool, to leave money in his care.

I can't break it down to simpler terms.

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  #132 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009

thanks for the comments and the explanation...

please note... I didnt say that the guys I know that own BRK.A/B were not interested on admiting it, but that they had no interest on bragging about it... those are two different things.


wldman View Post
"you own BRK.. great... now, would that be class A or B? just curious...never met anyone that would brag about owning BRK.A/B that actually had it.. not saying you dont btw.. just that those that I know do, keep it quiet because it usually means a good junk of their portfolio and they do it as a value play for their long, long, long term side..."

BRK'A from before there where B shares because I had the view then then that I still hold today...there is nobody better on the value side than Buffett.

BRK'B from when the shelf came off of the initial offering since I didn't have to invest like $75,000 each time.

Why in the world would someone not want to admit to owning BRK...even now when their chairman seems to have lost his mind, failed to understand basic tax law, and miscalculated simple math? Acting a fool for the purpouse of smootching the hinny of a politician definetly gets you the rank of tool.

So the essence of the comment stating that I owned BRK was to illustrate that in spite of his foolish comments I still have enough faith in Buffet, the tool, to leave money in his care.

I can't break it down to simpler terms.


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  #133 (permalink)
 wldman 
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two different things. I said that I ownned more BRK than any other equity as a reference point on the topic of Mr. Buffet being a tool. In that context I was making a relative point that while I agreed with the notion of Buffet being a tool, I did not let that discredit him to the point where I would sell his company. (but I'm close)

So I was not arrogant and my language was matter of fact not boastful. You are the one that asked a specific question about BRK'A or BRK'B and sort of implied that I was not being truthful. Now you want to school me on the semantics of what you meant to imply? I realize that the forum is kind of a fantasy land for some...NOT you specifically...and I just think guys should think about what they type and how it communicates (self included)

For instance in the general chat kronie posted that today could be blamed on the tea baggers. What is a tea bagger? What do tea baggers have to do with anything that happened today? What happend today that needs kronies assesment to the point of laying blame with someone other than himself?

See I think guys just type stuff because they can get away with it and it happens in here all the time. I can choose between two responeses. First, I can try to make guys accountable and hope they will be or go away. Second I can just ignore people. The problem with that is that the threads that do have value lose their continuity when half the members are ignored. Third...I guess I could just go away.

Anyway...trade well. DB

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  #134 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


wldman View Post
two different things. I said that I ownned more BRK than any other equity as a reference point on the topic of Mr. Buffet being a tool. In that context I was making a relative point that while I agreed with the notion of Buffet being a tool, I did not let that discredit him to the point where I would sell his company. (but I'm close)

So I was not arrogant and my language was matter of fact not boastful. You are the one that asked a specific question about BRK'A or BRK'B and sort of implied that I was not being truthful. Now you want to school me on the semantics of what you meant to imply? I realize that the forum is kind of a fantasy land for some...NOT you specifically...and I just think guys should think about what they type and how it communicates (self included)

For instance in the general chat kronie posted that today could be blamed on the tea baggers. What is a tea bagger? What do tea baggers have to do with anything that happened today? What happend today that needs kronies assesment to the point of laying blame with someone other than himself?

See I think guys just type stuff because they can get away with it and it happens in here all the time. I can choose between two responeses. First, I can try to make guys accountable and hope they will be or go away. Second I can just ignore people. The problem with that is that the threads that do have value lose their continuity when half the members are ignored. Third...I guess I could just go away.

Anyway...trade well. DB

I will acknowledge that my understanding of your statement was amiss, but please note that i specifically said that I didnt think that you were untruthful, but rather that your attitude if an owner was contrary to what i had experienced and hence I wanted to understand your position better (and when i mean position,I mean which issues you owned)... we are merely exchanging thoughts and opinions and in the process, learning.. that is how I see.. I dont take offense, and I hope you dont take any as well... I welcome the feedback in any event.

as to the rest of your statements..

I concur with your assessment about holding people accountable, there are many times that some might try to raise arguments that go nowhere and are meaningless... and I say that because half the time i think people just post to gain points or something... anyhow..

I read @chronie's statement on the chat, and by virtue of that statement, I can basically discard it as believable... my assessment based on the statement that @ BAC under $5 is a sell for institutions is that this is someone who has no clue about what institutions care about, and speaks based on what he/she believes to be true as if it was fact... when it isnt... C traded lower than $5 for years.. it created great opportunities for rebate trading.. and btw, it is owned (just like BAC) close to 60% by institutions..

what BAC needs to do is stop their div(if they havent already) and use those funds to buy back stock.. and certainly avoid the reverse split, unless they want to trade even lower...

I also dont know what a teabagger is, but from the dictionary lookup I just did, and the urban dict, I couldnt really get what he was referring to neither... so if you thought i was at a lost of the whole tool thing, this one has be even more baffled..

trade well...

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  #135 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
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I hope no one minds if I bring this back to the original topic because it's relevant for me. I am in the OP's position and will give you a little background. I was a NYMEX floor trader in the 80s and left to finish school. Got married, had kids, got a car that fits a car seat, and moved to DC and worked for the Feds for 15 years. Now living in Dubai until next year and am getting back into trading. Money is parked at an investment bank.

Fortunately, a good friend recommended Big Mike's and has taught me some technical analysis. I've been reading and learning a lot here (thank you all for your posts). I plan to eventually move my money into an account that I'll manage. My strategy is to start small, become re-acquainted with the markets, learn the software and build a diversified portfolio of high-yielding stocks, using options for income and hedging. It's been okay so far. That's the long-term portfolio/income side of my equation.

Since I am fairly risk averse, I was exclusively a spread trader at NYMEX. On the floor, it was possible to make money legging in and out of spreads, which brings me to the trading side of my equation. I'm trying to learn to trade electronically, inter-commodity spreads and right now I'm watching GC/PL and HO/RB. Looking at short-term and maybe intraday trades. Electronic trading is a new world for me and, yes, I know how quickly an account can evaporate, so I'm treading carefully and continuing with paper trading.

I've opened accounts at IB and Ameritrade (yesterday) and I've been testing NinjaTrader and Multicharts, as well as trials for Metastock, Optionvue, Valueline (all of which I've used before), but haven't bought anything yet. NT wasn't particularly helpful in creating inter-commodity spreads, and while I like MC, I can't get it to sync with the prices I see on IB, which will chart them, but won't seem to allow me to run studies. I haven't explored TOS yet, but the user interface at least seems more intuitive than IB.

I could go on, but I'll spare you and try and focus on things I haven't yet found solid answers on:
  • Does the portfolio side seem like a reasonable strategy? I've seen what the investment banks do and I know I could do the same thing with IB's basket trader--without the 1% mgmt fee. I'm not crazy about the yield on bonds, so I'm looking at good yields on stocks that have potential to appreciate. This is for long-held positions, perhaps 3-5 years or more. Any additional ideas for expanding my long-term horizons? For example, I hadn't considered BRK, which sounds interesting.
  • Any recommendations on technical analysis of inter-commodity spreads? Which software and how to analyze them. I am not a good technical analyst and can't seem to get my head around even a basic approach. I've read and am re-reading Murphy's book, but still...
  • I'm not one of those looking for the magic indicator that will automatically let me start making money and I'm willing to put in the work and take the time to figure things out.
Thanks

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  #136 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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tandreasian View Post
...

Since I am fairly risk averse, I was exclusively a spread trader at NYMEX. ..
I've opened accounts at IB and Ameritrade (yesterday) and I've been testing NinjaTrader and Multicharts, as well as trials for Metastock, Optionvue, Valueline (all of which I've used before), but haven't bought anything yet. NT wasn't particularly helpful in creating inter-commodity spreads

Thanks

sierrachart uses ib feed and I think it handle spread better than NT, jmho.

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  #137 (permalink)
 wldman 
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Thanks for clearing that up. Trade well.

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  #138 (permalink)
 wldman 
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Two items that might be of value to you from my perspective.

First, this particular thread is kind of stale in my opinion. Your inquiry probably deserves it's own thread as I suspect most that would offer helpful advice to you are not tuned in here anymore.

Second, My current opinion on BRK is that they are better prepared to both identify the best value plays and negotiate preferred deals that I can not. Their management track record is in my opinion proven and reliable.

Also, Wave 59 does allow mathamatical expressions in their quote window. So if you where setting up a spread or a ratioed spread between two products you could do that easily through the quote window. The "basket" route is also interesting to me. All the best and happy trading. DB

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  #139 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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@tandreasian

A couple of other books on intermarket analysis:

Amazon.com: Intermarket Trading Strategies (Wiley Trading) (9780470758106): Markos Katsanos: Books (credit goes to @sysot1t)

Amazon.com: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets (Wiley Trading) (9780470226230): Ashraf Laïdi: Books

That being said, the intermarket relationships in the times ahead might not be that easily deciphered, but that will, of course, also lead to big opportunities.

As for portfolio trading software. Mechanica supposedly very good. Tradestation bought Portfolio Maestro last year and will release a new version in not too long. Amibroker might be worth checking out.

The cheapest alternative for a decent spreading platform is CTS T4, and the next step would be CQG IC or X_Trader. Both offers autospreaders. It seems that there will be a webinar here about the latter in not too long.

But from what you describe, it might be worth to look into RTS' RTD Trader, ORC or REDIPlus. They will all support all of your needs in one platform. As would Bloomberg. All of these are in a different price league, but I thought I'd mention them anyway.

I don't know what your knowledge of portfolio trading is, and I don't want to offend you, but I found this book to be a good introduction for a layman like myself:

Amazon.com: The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk (0639785323259): William Bernstein: Books

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  #140 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


tandreasian View Post
I hope no one minds if I bring this back to the original topic because it's relevant for me. I am in the OP's position and will give you a little background. I was a NYMEX floor trader in the 80s and left to finish school. Got married, had kids, got a car that fits a car seat, and moved to DC and worked for the Feds for 15 years. Now living in Dubai until next year and am getting back into trading. Money is parked at an investment bank.

I always wanted to live in Dubai, HK and TOK are my other options... I am envious..


tandreasian View Post
Fortunately, a good friend recommended Big Mike's and has taught me some technical analysis. I've been reading and learning a lot here (thank you all for your posts). I plan to eventually move my money into an account that I'll manage. My strategy is to start small, become re-acquainted with the markets, learn the software and build a diversified portfolio of high-yielding stocks, using options for income and hedging. It's been okay so far. That's the long-term portfolio/income side of my equation.
.

ok, right path thus far...


tandreasian View Post
Since I am fairly risk averse, I was exclusively a spread trader at NYMEX. On the floor, it was possible to make money legging in and out of spreads, which brings me to the trading side of my equation. I'm trying to learn to trade electronically, inter-commodity spreads and right now I'm watching GC/PL and HO/RB. Looking at short-term and maybe intraday trades. Electronic trading is a new world for me and, yes, I know how quickly an account can evaporate, so I'm treading carefully and continuing with paper trading.
.

hmmm... my opinion.. spreads still more than work.. that is what I trade... well, a bastardized version...

the spreads you picked I havent done... I dont think PL has enough volume, at least IMO. Look at index spreads instead, you might be surprised... I only do intraday spreads, I dont hold anything long term.. for long term I use options..

if you are fairly risk averse... you should stick only to options and spreads.. nothing more I would say.,..


tandreasian View Post
I've opened accounts at IB and Ameritrade (yesterday) and I've been testing NinjaTrader and Multicharts, as well as trials for Metastock, Optionvue, Valueline (all of which I've used before), but haven't bought anything yet. NT wasn't particularly helpful in creating inter-commodity spreads, and while I like MC, I can't get it to sync with the prices I see on IB, which will chart them, but won't seem to allow me to run studies. I haven't explored TOS yet, but the user interface at least seems more intuitive than IB.
.

if you are trading options, TOS(AMTD) is fine... anything else, caveat emptor... the acquisition by AMTD made TOS worse IMO..a shame... AMTD buys stuff and quality goes down.. same thing happen when they bought Datek..


tandreasian View Post
I could go on, but I'll spare you and try and focus on things I haven't yet found solid answers on:
  • Does the portfolio side seem like a reasonable strategy? I've seen what the investment banks do and I know I could do the same thing with IB's basket trader--without the 1% mgmt fee. I'm not crazy about the yield on bonds, so I'm looking at good yields on stocks that have potential to appreciate. This is for long-held positions, perhaps 3-5 years or more. Any additional ideas for expanding my long-term horizons? For example, I hadn't considered BRK, which sounds interesting.
.

BRK's are expensive... and there is no "yield".. anyhow.. I rather do options on something more accessible.. use IB for your portfolio mgmt, margin is perfect if you leverage..


tandreasian View Post
  • Any recommendations on technical analysis of inter-commodity spreads? Which software and how to analyze them. I am not a good technical analyst and can't seem to get my head around even a basic approach. I've read and am re-reading Murphy's book, but still...

CQGIC... that is your best bet... not cheap @ $1000 a month for standard trading and a few other things, you dont need the spreader right away.. with spreader and all, it will be around $2K..

you can try doing the spreads with MC or NT7 if they support custom instruments, I dont recall off the top of my head... MarketDelta allows custom instruments, and creates some spreads, but when compared to CQGIC, it was a bit off...


tandreasian View Post
  • I'm not one of those looking for the magic indicator that will automatically let me start making money and I'm willing to put in the work and take the time to figure things out.
Thanks

what do you mean?! that strategy I bought wont let me figure things out?!

welcome to the few...

trade well... and prosper... (my own twist on @wldman's signature... a la spock )

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  #141 (permalink)
 forrestang 
Urban Samurai
Chicago IL
 
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wldman View Post
I get what you are saying, but there are plenty of tools everywhere.

Definitely! Check out any Sears Department Store........

Oh no wait, you meant people. Yes, those are everywhere too.

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  #142 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
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nothing but the best tools for me! The people who are tools , we can just attempt to suffer them with grace until we can't take it anymore. DB

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  #143 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
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cory View Post
sierrachart uses ib feed and I think it handle spread better than NT, jmho.

Thanks, I'll check it out as well.

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  #144 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Searching
Trading: Intermarket futures spreads
 
Posts: 7 since Aug 2011
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wldman View Post
Two items that might be of value to you from my perspective.

First, this particular thread is kind of stale in my opinion. Your inquiry probably deserves it's own thread as I suspect most that would offer helpful advice to you are not tuned in here anymore.

Second, My current opinion on BRK is that they are better prepared to both identify the best value plays and negotiate preferred deals that I can not. Their management track record is in my opinion proven and reliable.

Also, Wave 59 does allow mathamatical expressions in their quote window. So if you where setting up a spread or a ratioed spread between two products you could do that easily through the quote window. The "basket" route is also interesting to me. All the best and happy trading. DB

Thanks. Right on BRK--that's their expertise--and I'll check out Wave 59 (never heard of it). Yes, the basket is interesting. Only paper trades so far, but it lets you create a basket of stocks based on any number of US or foreign indices, using different approaches like top/bottom by weight or cap, use statistical representation of index, create orders using $ figure or # shares, use as an arb for the index, etc. Or you can put your $100k into a fund and someone takes two minutes to plug it in to an IB basket, saying something like our investment profile for this fund is the top 20% of stocks by capitalization of the Dow Real Estate Index because we feel that real estate offers great potential return over the next 3-5 years and the largest 20% offer the safest return. That'll be 1.25% of your investment on an annual basis, plus 20% of your gain. Slight exaggeration...maybe, but you get my point. If it's possible to do yourself, why not? In fact, that's not a bad idea, anyone interested?

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  #145 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Lornz View Post
@ tandreasian

I don't know what your knowledge of portfolio trading is, and I don't want to offend you, but I found this book to be a good introduction for a layman like myself:

Amazon.com: The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk (0639785323259): William Bernstein: Books

Thanks, Lornz. I'm new to portfolio trading--zero knowledge. However, I have several managed funds in my portfolio that I follow closely and compare to benchmarks. They are buy and hold strategies with occasional rebalancing--so, yes, they have all been hammered recently. Now that I see technically how I can create the orders, I want to learn how to add value. My knowledge has plenty of gaps, so as basic as it comes is what I'm looking for. Then I'll know what I don't know.

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  #146 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Searching
Trading: Intermarket futures spreads
 
Posts: 7 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 8 given, 1 received


sysot1t View Post
I always wanted to live in Dubai, HK and TOK are my other options... I am envious..



ok, right path thus far...



hmmm... my opinion.. spreads still more than work.. that is what I trade... well, a bastardized version...

the spreads you picked I havent done... I dont think PL has enough volume, at least IMO. Look at index spreads instead, you might be surprised... I only do intraday spreads, I dont hold anything long term.. for long term I use options..

if you are fairly risk averse... you should stick only to options and spreads.. nothing more I would say.,..



if you are trading options, TOS(AMTD) is fine... anything else, caveat emptor... the acquisition by AMTD made TOS worse IMO..a shame... AMTD buys stuff and quality goes down.. same thing happen when they bought Datek..



BRK's are expensive... and there is no "yield".. anyhow.. I rather do options on something more accessible.. use IB for your portfolio mgmt, margin is perfect if you leverage..



CQGIC... that is your best bet... not cheap @ $1000 a month for standard trading and a few other things, you dont need the spreader right away.. with spreader and all, it will be around $2K..

you can try doing the spreads with MC or NT7 if they support custom instruments, I dont recall off the top of my head... MarketDelta allows custom instruments, and creates some spreads, but when compared to CQGIC, it was a bit off...



what do you mean?! that strategy I bought wont let me figure things out?!

welcome to the few...

trade well... and prosper... (my own twist on @ wldman's signature... a la spock )


Thanks for the welcome and detailed reply. IB lets you create "combinations" of whatever you want. It's 2 PL for every GC and the spread has exploded in the last week with the world collapsing and gold as the only store of value. Just watching from the sidelines now, but damn!

HO/RB used to be a very nice seasonal spread to trade on the floor. Trade the Jans or Febs approaching the winter and Mays or Junes approaching the summer. I'm watching them all to see how they now move. Though I've never traded them, I've seen CL/HO/RB and CL/NG trade very nicely during hurricane season, the Aug and Sep contracts. The downside is that all these spreads can have dramatic movements; GC/PL moved $50 overnight recently, so not good to hold.

I've been thinking about indices too because they seem more stable than commodities. I've been considering ES/YM because I'm somewhat familiar with their movements already and I can trade them in the overnight during my Dubai day. Which do you trade and how do you trade them? Off charts? Do you leg in or put in a simultaneous trade ala IB combo? Been thinking to "buy the bid" and "sell the market" in MC. When the buy is filled, sell the market. That's more or less how it was done on the floor--except you had your friend next to you in the pit with an order. Alas, those days are gone.

A lot of work still to do, but it's interesting and fun.

There are much nicer places to visit than Dubai. They did a remarkable job of building a city on a desert. The malls here put anything in the US to shame. Even the crappy ones have marble floors and top end stores, but on my last flight out, I remember saying to myself "if this is the last time I see Dubai, that's okay." Looking forward getting back to the NYC area. I'm here because my wife is here. Yerevan in Armenia is a wonderful small city (disclaimer, I met my wife there last year)

Like the Spock reference. Got my wife and stepson hooked on Voyager and plan to start TOS (not thinkorswim) when that's finished. Thanks Netflix.

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  #147 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


tandreasian View Post
Thanks. Right on BRK--that's their expertise--and I'll check out Wave 59 (never heard of it). Yes, the basket is interesting. Only paper trades so far, but it lets you create a basket of stocks based on any number of US or foreign indices, using different approaches like top/bottom by weight or cap, use statistical representation of index, create orders using $ figure or # shares, use as an arb for the index, etc. Or you can put your $100k into a fund and someone takes two minutes to plug it in to an IB basket, saying something like our investment profile for this fund is the top 20% of stocks by capitalization of the Dow Real Estate Index because we feel that real estate offers great potential return over the next 3-5 years and the largest 20% offer the safest return. That'll be 1.25% of your investment on an annual basis, plus 20% of your gain. Slight exaggeration...maybe, but you get my point. If it's possible to do yourself, why not? In fact, that's not a bad idea, anyone interested?

you are oversimplifying what a real hedgefund does.. and keep in mind that unless it is a tiny fund, they wont take you for $100K.. and also, 2/20 is the rule pretty much... anyhow, now with all the pendin reg, lots of funds are just returning money, so I am sure a lot of people will have to do what you are looking to do...

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  #148 (permalink)
 sysot1t 
 
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


tandreasian View Post
HO/RB used to be a very nice seasonal spread to trade on the floor. Trade the Jans or Febs approaching the winter and Mays or Junes approaching the summer. I'm watching them all to see how they now move. Though I've never traded them, I've seen CL/HO/RB and CL/NG trade very nicely during hurricane season, the Aug and Sep contracts. The downside is that all these spreads can have dramatic movements; GC/PL moved $50 overnight recently, so not good to hold.

I have not done seasonals... I will take a look at them..


tandreasian View Post
I've been thinking about indices too because they seem more stable than commodities. I've been considering ES/YM because I'm somewhat familiar with their movements already and I can trade them in the overnight during my Dubai day. Which do you trade and how do you trade them? Off charts? Do you leg in or put in a simultaneous trade ala IB combo? Been thinking to "buy the bid" and "sell the market" in MC. When the buy is filled, sell the market. That's more or less how it was done on the floor--except you had your friend next to you in the pit with an order. Alas, those days are gone.

I do index because those I am allowed to do without having to get approval, and also, because of liquidity... I do what works for me... Index vs. Interest Rates, CME Index vs Eurex Index... biggest issue with Eurex/Liffe is the currency risk, I dont know what the final conversion rate will be.. so hedging it is a pain.. as to how I leg in, less liquid leg first..and the closest I can get to required value on the other leg... right now, with CQGIC Spreader which I am testing, I just click on the spread based on my Qformula and it goes get what it needs to working both orders at the same time.. so having a dedicated tool to enter both orders is nice.

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  #149 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Searching
Trading: Intermarket futures spreads
 
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sysot1t View Post
you are oversimplifying what a real hedgefund does.. and keep in mind that unless it is a tiny fund, they wont take you for $100K.. and also, 2/20 is the rule pretty much... anyhow, now with all the pendin reg, lots of funds are just returning money, so I am sure a lot of people will have to do what you are looking to do...

Yes, you're right about the hedge funds, but for fund managers, it may not be too far off the mark, except they don't take 20% of the gain.

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  #150 (permalink)
 tandreasian 
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Searching
Trading: Intermarket futures spreads
 
Posts: 7 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 8 given, 1 received


sysot1t View Post
I have not done seasonals... I will take a look at them..



I do index because those I am allowed to do without having to get approval, and also, because of liquidity... I do what works for me... Index vs. Interest Rates, CME Index vs Eurex Index... biggest issue with Eurex/Liffe is the currency risk, I dont know what the final conversion rate will be.. so hedging it is a pain.. as to how I leg in, less liquid leg first..and the closest I can get to required value on the other leg... right now, with CQGIC Spreader which I am testing, I just click on the spread based on my Qformula and it goes get what it needs to working both orders at the same time.. so having a dedicated tool to enter both orders is nice.

IB will also let you enter a spread order, but I've only tested it on paper. The real fill may be different. As for the commodities, I would leg in the same way. Limit order on the less-liquid first leg and market (or close to) on the second.

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  #151 (permalink)
 telco 
Glendale, WI
 
 
Posts: 20 since Oct 2011

If you can't make 0.1% a day (averaged) you probably should not be trading in the first place. (unless you are doing that with a few hundred million).

For a lot of arb you might need more than 5M to get the daily dollar return you are looking for. I would not recommend arb for you. You probably do not have the capital, leverage, or computer skills necessary to do it effectively. I mean that in the least offensive way possible.

To be clear you are asking for a "zero risk" return of 24% annually with arb and ~5M capital. That is insane. You can do that with arb but you need to be extremely leveraged (or capitalized for the flat dollar amount) and have some damn good coding ability. You also need collocation at all the exchanges you would arb at. You need to do much more homework...

If you still want to try arb, start with this.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=daily_analysis&ib_entity=llc

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  #152 (permalink)
 PowerM 
Nürnberg, Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: IB/Kinetick
Trading: CL, YM
 
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Hi

I didnt read all the answers related to your question, but from my point of view the simple answer is:
sure you can if you have a good setup.
There shouldnt be an important difference between making money by trading your own account with 50k or a 5M from my point of view (maybe you will get problems to get filled all your orders when entering the market with a lot of them ) .....



arbman1 View Post
Hello All-
First time poster. Here is a serious question, please post to the forum or send me a PM. If you were trying to earn $3000-$5000 per day with a $5,000,000 account, what would you trade and what methodology? Im interested in treating the account like I treated my business-No senseless risks, grind out profits consistantly. Thanks,
Jake


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  #153 (permalink)
 kevinhenjum 
New York
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninjatrader, Metatrader
Broker: Forex.com, Ameritrade
Trading: Equity, Forex ,EURGBP,EURCHF, USDCHF, EURUSD
 
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Hey Arbman1, a good place to start is with the post by Jeff Castille titled "All you need" posted on August 16, 2009. It is one of the few trading systems I have seen that has low risk and good potential. You really don't need to leverage that much money. You should be able to accomplish your goal with as little as 50k to 100k. The logistics of tracking that much money trading on a daily basis would be a nightmare. You would have to be in several dozen or more trades at the same time. You will need both a short term day trading plan and leverage the balance in a more long term or swing trading plan. Never trust a trading system without having the creator of the system post actual reults of their trades. If its a daytrading plan, they should be able, and proud, to show you the results of the last 5 days of trading. There are too many posers that will tell you in theory how to trade or paper trade and it won't live trade the same way. Indicators are fine, but understand that most are lagging indicators and will give you a buy or sell that happened on data from 2 or 3 bars back. Start on the post I mentioned above and develop a system that works for you. All you need to make is about 50 cents a day to achieve your goal with 50k. Take a little at a time 5 cents, 10 cents. at the end of the day you will be there.

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  #154 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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I would strongly advise not to trade at all. Your question sounds like you have no idea about trading and you will most likely loose most of your money. Trading is a tough game and the most complicated thing I've done in my life.

So, if futures.io (formerly BMT) community answers YES to your question, you will trade and if NO, you won't? It really does sound like that.

By the way, 5k per day is more than possible. I trade with 100% risk per 168 ticks (168 ticks and I am wiped out). With your account I'd be making Jesus knows how much.

In the end, all that matters is if you can make money at all. Risk can be adjusted with lot size. If you can't make money in markets, then even low risk won't help you (5k per day on 5m account is low risk trading)

Be very careful about what you do or the market will take your money.
Good luck!

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  #155 (permalink)
 PeterOhlson 
Germany
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Trading: Stocks
 
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If you got $5M lying around, I think you'd be better off investing it in real-estate rather than trading. Buy an apartment complex and rent it out or something.

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  #156 (permalink)
 kevinhenjum 
New York
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninjatrader, Metatrader
Broker: Forex.com, Ameritrade
Trading: Equity, Forex ,EURGBP,EURCHF, USDCHF, EURUSD
 
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I am absolutely stunned by the amount of people on this trading site telling this guy to avoid trading.

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  #157 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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kevinhenjum View Post
I am absolutely stunned by the amount of people on this trading site telling this guy to avoid trading.

Why? Did you have an indicator to sell him? haha....

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  #158 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,135 since Jul 2011
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Some ideas that just popped to my mind for 5mil capital and the 3k to 5k daily goal.

1) Learn to daytrade or scalp. 3k to 5k is doable with a $500k account. It's also doable with a $50k account but requires a much higher risk and high skill rate, sustained focus and high win rate.

2) If you don't mind bi-weekly % gains, there are some options strategies and schools out there for those with bigger accounts. And new strategies for weekly options. However the margin % can be much higher.
- www.libertytradinggroup.com (selling options on futures, they also take accounts for their fund)
A futures.io (formerly BMT) thread at:

- www.sjoptions.com ("wider" options spreads, they teach and simulate options spreads on bigger account size)

Avoid: optionetics.com

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