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$5,000,000 account earning $3000 to $5,000 daily. is it possible?
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$5,000,000 account earning $3000 to $5,000 daily. is it possible?

  #101 (permalink)
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sysot1t View Post
we finally agree!! ... with one caveat.. sticking to one's setup (when that setup has no basis or foundation or basically no change of ever being even remotely profitable) is suicidal at best... so I would say, learning the instrument, finding a setup that works and then sticking to its probabilities without changing, and doing the homework/hardwork part... there is nothing in this business without hardwork (or any business) and by that I dont mean killing yourself learning something (it should be innate or otherwise you wont succeed at it and it is best to find something else to make you $$$) but using the time wisely to learn and being diligent about it.

I see that @sysot1t beat me to it. I can only +1 his post.

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  #102 (permalink)
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@MWinfrey

If you have been at this for so long without succeeding, I would say that intraday discretionary trading is not for you. Most that have an aptitude for such trading, usually succeed fairly quickly. They only need to refine their risk/money/trade management...

This leads me to my final point, why would an unprofitable trader give advice in this thread?
It escapes me why someone would have so little regard for other's well-being that they would give advice they are unsure if works themselves... When I first started trading, I did not make a post for several years.

@Lornz - you seem to contradict yourself here, or maybe I'm confused about how you trade. I had thought you would count yourself as an "intraday discretionary trader"? But here you say that this is something you either succeed at quickly or not at all. But then in the last paragraph you state that you did not give advice (and by extension from your statement here - were not profitable) for "several years". I'm assuming I'm wrong about you being an intraday discretionary trader? I enjoy reading many of your posts so am interested in your views here.

Regardless - I'm curious as to the source of your opinion about intraday discretionary traders either succeeding quickly due to an aptitude or not at all. I strive to become a consistently profitable, intraday discretionary trader and I have found that after 2 years of work at it I'm much better than I was in the beginning and what stands between me and profitability are the manifestations of what is essentially a self-control issue. And so my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert

Last edited by Surly; September 25th, 2011 at 01:50 PM.
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  #103 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

not him, ... but for what is worth... by structured analysis of price action I will assume you mean really technical analysis and understanding market structure itself.. not as much emphasis on learning price action itself.. and form that case, I say that as time progresses and you put in the hours of actually trading and building confidence, and your account, and improve your mind... you make more and more profit while trading... that is my belief.. and I have put it into practice...

an intraday discretionary trader is anyone who is in cash by end of session.. I prefer to be a hybrid... since I do leave option and fx positions open for as long as I believe conditions are near or close the same for which I entered... but with futures, I dont have that patience.. too leveraged, and too easily to wipe an account unless one is hedged the right way.. and to hedge costs $$$$ and no sense on spending that money when I dont need to..

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  #104 (permalink)
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Ahhh... ok, then that makes sense. But it makes me even more curious to hear his answer/opinion about his statements about either you get it quick or you don't.

Incidentally, I do recognize the varying distinctions between TA vs. Price Action and indicators vs. no indicators, etc, etc ad infinitum. However, for me, I simply draw the line at fundamental analysis vs no fundamental analysis. In other words, if you don't use fundamental analysis then (to me), you're a technical trader whether you use market delta, price action, indicators, whatever. I understand this distinction can be more refined but I find that at a gross level, this is a major and meaningful distinction between discretionary trading styles (as opposed to the distinctions between spread trading and directional trading or automated vs. non-automated, etc).

I'm curious - how do you make the distinction (or how to you distinguish) between technical analysis and price action?

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #105 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Ahhh... ok, then that makes sense. But it makes me even more curious to hear his answer/opinion about his statements about either you get it quick or you don't.

Incidentally, I do recognize the varying distinctions between TA vs. Price Action and indicators vs. no indicators, etc, etc ad infinitum. However, for me, I simply draw the line at fundamental analysis vs no fundamental analysis. In other words, if you don't use fundamental analysis then (to me), you're a technical trader whether you use market delta, price action, indicators, whatever. I understand this distinction can be more refined but I find that at a gross level, this is a major and meaningful distinction between discretionary trading styles (as opposed to the distinctions between spread trading and directional trading or automated vs. non-automated, etc).

I'm curious - how do you make the distinction (or how to you distinguish) between technical analysis and price action?

PA is pure PA... Al Brooks Style... TA is just being a technical trader aided by indicators, you dont pay attention to the fundamentals...

which BTW, one should still pay attention to.. if anything because things always revert to the mean.. but an intraday disc trader doesnt care 100% about fundamentals... I use them as good to know... I mean, if you are trading FX and dont look at the macro's... then you expose yourself to risk... for example.. the change on view of the SF gov to intervene... same applies if trading options, or futures... they are hedging instruments... used mainly by those that are following fundamentals.. best to understand why they might jump into the market..

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  #106 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
@Lornz - you seem to contradict yourself here, or maybe I'm confused about how you trade. I had thought you would count yourself as an "intraday discretionary trader"? But here you say that this is something you either succeed at quickly or not at all. But then in the last paragraph you state that you did not give advice (and by extension from your statement here - were not profitable) for "several years". I'm assuming I'm wrong about you being an intraday discretionary trader? I enjoy reading many of your posts so am interested in your views here.

Regardless - I'm curious as to the source of your opinion about intraday discretionary traders either succeeding quickly due to an aptitude or not at all. I strive to become a consistently profitable, intraday discretionary trader and I have found that after 2 years of work at it I'm much better than I was in the beginning and what stands between me and profitability are the manifestations of what is essentially a self-control issue. And so my opinion is that intraday discretionary trading must be learned - that there is certainly a role of aptitude, but that one integrates an internal intuition about discretionary trading through hours, weeks, and months of structured analysis of price action until one can see where/when situations exist in which the expectancy on a given trade is skewed such that a trading opportunity exists. What is your opinion here? thx in advance...

I often contradict myself, I wouldn't want you to figure out how I trade...

First of all, I did not claim to be unprofitable for so long. I just felt that I had a lot to learn still. I've always aimed for perfection, and, although I quickly turned profitable, I did not make a lot right away either.

I have received several PMs during the months I've been active on this board, and sometime in the near future, I will finally write a more detailed post about my background.

I don't like blanket statements, and I apologize for making one. I meant to say "discretionary PA trading". I fully believe this, and it did not take me many months to get consistently profitable. Being able to read the tape/DOM is very intuitive and not something you can be taught by others. The same goes for trading off a clean chart, there are not really that many patterns to look for - and once you find them, you will know. Most get lost in a maze of confusion trying to make it into a science, something it is not.

All other kinds of trading can be learnt and do not follow the same timeline. One can succeed quickly, but one can also spend years trying to find the right "potion". I have spent years doing various statistical analysis and most of my efforts have been dead-ends.

To be fair, I should disclaim that I position traded (based on fundamentals/expectation) stocks for a few years before I first tried to trade futures. I also made a living off sports betting while in high school. I have always been good at dealing with uncertainty. In fact, I quite enjoy it. Therefore I have not had much difficulty with the psychological aspect of trading....

Except for the first couple of months, I have not used any indicators. Thus I cannot really speak of the validity of them, I have just never met anyone successfully trading that way. It seems you are always "just" a little behind, but it looks perfect in hindsight. Of course, even a MA crossover works during volatile times (like the past couple of months).

However, I do have spreadsheet that is dear to me. And I also look at market internals and various relative strength relationships, thus one could say that I use "indicators". I just don't believe that manipulating time series into beautiful collages is the way to go. I also do everything else one is not supposed to do... Like trading during the first few minutes and during news releases, try to predict the market and I even pay attention to the news.

In fact, the only thing I never do (while trading) - is to average losers...

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  #107 (permalink)
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Thanks @Lornz! I appreciate you taking the time to answer my question. Glad to hear you didn't have to suffer through a couple years of failure on your journey of learning to make a living trading - I can tell you that it is not pleasant.

Having the background you do seems to have been a good preparation for trading - certainly the experience of sports betting at a young age must have been really helpful. "Betting" is really what trading is all about. If you are going to be consistently successful at any kind of Betting, you are going to be well suited to the mental orientation you have to have towards trading. Coming from the background I do (science and then land development) has given me no preparation for dealing with uncertainty. And it kicks the crap out of me for sure.

Finally, I really hope you're wrong about either being successful quickly or not at all because I sure as heck have not been successful quickly.... :puke:

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #108 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Thanks @Lornz! I appreciate you taking the time to answer my question. Glad to hear you didn't have to suffer through a couple years of failure on your journey of learning to make a living trading - I can tell you that it is not pleasant.

Having the background you do seems to have been a good preparation for trading - certainly the experience of sports betting at a young age must have been really helpful. "Betting" is really what trading is all about. If you are going to be consistently successful at any kind of Betting, you are going to be well suited to the mental orientation you have to have towards trading. Coming from the background I do (science and then land development) has given me no preparation for dealing with uncertainty. And it kicks the crap out of me for sure.

Finally, I really hope you're wrong about either being successful quickly or not at all because I sure as heck have not been successful quickly.... :puke:

Don't let any idiots on the Internet tell you what's possible or not, especially me!

I've had epiphanies years after I first started; this is not a static vocation. I hate blanket statements, and I resent myself for making one.

My point was simply that it shouldn't take too long to figure out if one is capable of trading a "clean" chart and/or DOM/T&S. This is more comparable to a sport than an intellectual activity. I think ADD is a requirement!

However, with regard to other kinds of trading; One might find/develop a certain formula/indicator or model that makes all the difference at any point in time....

But, one must carefully consider how long one is willing to continue one's search for an answer that may never come.... It's a question of interest, I guess.

2 years isn't really that bad, it took me a bit longer to develop my first mechanical system.
My gawd, man -- suck it up!

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  #109 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post

Except for the first couple of months, I have not used any indicators. Thus I cannot really speak of the validity of them, I have just never met anyone successfully trading that way. It seems you are always "just" a little behind, but it looks perfect in hindsight. Of course, even a MA crossover works during volatile times (like the past couple of months).

However, I do have spreadsheet that is dear to me. And I also look at market internals and various relative strength relationships, thus one could say that I use "indicators". I just don't believe that manipulating time series into beautiful collages is the way to go. I also do everything else one is not supposed to do... Like trading during the first few minutes and during news releases, try to predict the market and I even pay attention to the news.

...

Lornz, This was hard to follow. :-) You do not use indicators, but then you do. But then you're also sure others who use indicators are "a little bit behind" and you have "not met anyone successful trading that way." Sorry if my head is spinning. I just wanted to clarify.

I guess my view is that either you are a trader of fundamentals or you are a technical trader. You can also try and mix the two, but usually you are really relying on one vs. the other. If you are a technical-discretionary trader, you still really have rules, they are just in your head. If you are a technical-mechanical trader, you put your rules into a computer.

What I have never seen is a technical-discretionary trader that had any advantage over a good mechanical system. I have seen fundamental traders (like Buffett) that are better at utilizing news. In short, there are good technical-discretionary traders and good mechanical system traders. The one exception to this that I mentioned is if there is news that you are using to change your rules in the discretionary case. In that case you are mixing fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Then I would agree that the human is superior at integrating news. But if you are a pure technical-discretionary trader, then you either don't stick to your own rules, or else you have not made your rules conscious. (I am also skeptical that traders do well anticipating news, because insider-knowledge discounts the news ahead of you and me).

Fundamental traders are by necessity long term position traders. This is the only way the "fundamentals" can be given expression, over time. So if you are speaking about day trading. then in my experience you can daytrade technical-discretionary or technical-mechanical. And I have not seen an advantage for one over the other in that case: only one trader who is better than another. - Assuming the discretionary trader sticks to his system and the mechanical system operator sticks to his, you see the same results. Naturally if you randomly apply rules, you will get random results. Not a plus that I can see in that! :-)

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  #110 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
2 years isn't really that bad, it took me a bit longer to develop my first mechanical system.
My gawd, man -- suck it up!

Love it brother - love it. This is the kind of stuff that makes bmt fun once in a while.

And yep, totally agree on the "no blanket statements" - easiest way to spot a poser is when they make one...

keep rockin it.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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