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New Years Prediction, where will the market be?
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New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

  #1 (permalink)
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New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

I'd like to hear from all of you -- in about 30 days we'll be starting a new year, where do you think the market be on the first trading day of the new year?

I'm primarily interested in hearing about S&P 500 but I think would be interesting to hear predictions on other indexes and even currencies and commodities.

For what it's worth, I've been on a bearish sentiment regarding the S&P for quite some time now. I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down. I think holiday sales this Christmas are going to be abysmal, but sometimes that doesn't/can't really factor too much into the market by the 1st of the year, even as forward-thinking as it tries to be.

I think we're going to see a lot of above-average income families drastically cutting their spending this holiday, and these families I feel spend 3-5x more than a typical family, so when they cut back it will be felt in a big way.

As for oil, I feel like the only place it can go is up.

So my predictions, without any technical analysis/chart relevance, just personal sentiment:

ES - 995.00
CL - 86.00

What's yours?

Mike

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  #2 (permalink)
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- On average, the DJIA and SP500 have returned +1.7% in December since 1950
- On average, Small Cap (R2K) begins to outperform Large Cap in Mid December to start the "January Effect."

2009 Stock Traders Almanac

No personal views on where we will end up as my big lesson for 2009 was that opinions don't matter, price does.

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  #3 (permalink)
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MXASJ View Post
- On average, the DJIA and SP500 have returned +1.7% in December since 1950
- On average, Small Cap (R2K) begins to outperform Large Cap in Mid December to start the "January Effect."

2009 Stock Traders Almanac

No personal views on where we will end up as my big lesson for 2009 was that opinions don't matter, price does.

Yup I remember such stats too. And I'm not suggesting a swing trade This is just for fun, just like the teenage attitude method thread.

Mike

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  #4 (permalink)
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Hey, Mike.... good question. Below are my predictions for close of trading on December 31, 2009.

Now, if you asked what the numbers were going to be a few weeks into the new year, I still think this stock market is an accident waiting to happen, but I think the accident is going to wait till the typically "firm" holidays have come and gone.

Everyone have a great holiday this weekend!!!! There's a lot to be thankful for.

ES = 1060
CL = 70

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  #5 (permalink)
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Hi Hapster,

Ok we're definitely on two different ends of this one, so let's see who gets closest

I do agree with you after giving it some more reflection, that the tanking won't happen until first part of the year... but oh well, I made my predictions in good fun and we'll see where it takes us.

Mike

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  #6 (permalink)
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don't see big evidence for bearish sentiment right now. a good reason for me to stay bullish is, too many people are bearish. the spending is a good argument, but already factored in the market. next year could be different story.

oil is a lot harder to predict. if global economy continues to improve, it should go up. but to have a good recovery, lower oil would be helpful.


ES = 1157.00
CL = 77.00

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  #7 (permalink)
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First Quarter

ES = 900
CL = 90

I don't really know these numbers. I don't follow or trade these numbers so really approximate. US is getting ready to crash. It's going to be ugly. We are in a retracement currently.

Mike says -I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down.

Any one who feels otherwise can you please justify your position. What is the positive news...? The next thing to hit will be commercial real estate.

Who will pay for Dubai's crumbling debt mountain? | The National Business Review - New Zealand - business, markets, finance, politics, property, technology and more

Commercial Real Estate: The Next Bubble? at SmartMoney.com


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091126-707330.html

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  #8 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
For what it's worth, I've been on a bearish sentiment regarding the S&P for quite some time now. I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down. I think holiday sales this Christmas are going to be abysmal, but sometimes that doesn't/can't really factor too much into the market by the 1st of the year, even as forward-thinking as it tries to be.

We agree on the S&P. I've been waiting for the top for a while now, even took a couple stabs at it. I don't want to give a number because anything can happen, but after Thanksgiving day's drop, I think we've seen the top and we're headed back down.

We disagree on oil. I think oil, gold, & euro will all drop with the indexes (they're all correllated at the moment although that doesn't mean it'll continue) with the dollar rising. Everything is hinging on the dollar. And if the dollar goes up, which I believe it will, then oil will go down. I can easily see oil at 60 and even below 50. I don't swing trade oil so I don't really care what it does.

I would like to get off a short on gold, just waiting for the right moment. I believe we are seeing the climax right now and are headed for a major correction.

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  #9 (permalink)
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On 12/31:
ES = 1150
CL = 80

I agree with Silvester.
Dubai or not Dubai, the trend still bullish for ES (for me).
For 2010, it's another story.

But like everyone here, this is just for fun, I don't swing any of these.

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  #10 (permalink)
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Good morning-- In my opinion, the market could have very volative ranging swings to the end of the year, hitting FIBs areas from the High of 1586.75 of Oct. 07 to Low of 665.75 in March 09: so, (you can check me on the numbers) possibly down to the 23.8% & 38.1% retrace areas -- 900's and 1020's respectively and back up to 50% (1120's) & maybe even to 61.8 % (1240 area) in reaction to news... There already seems to be a lot of revisiting of the 38% (1020 area ) as showing on a weekly chart and movement up to in FIB #s the 50% (approx. 1120) but maybe it will be when the big players are supposedly back and things really settle in -- in January 2010, that we will, imo, see more decisive, committed trend movement.

Interesting point on commercial real estate, which is supposedly the last to get hit by a downturn. In this case, though, depending on the scale of the hit, what a lot of people don't know is that insurance companies tie some of their product to it. And, it's an unknown as to how much exposure or how well positioned these companies are to handle that . So, commercial real estate and further debt situations - as many more are expected- (such as Dubai), could be a wild card in fluctuations, taking the market lower, depending on timing and how many news events happen at once.

Just Stocks or Indicies too?? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-market-trade-remarkably-light-2009-11-25
"There's a defensive mentality taking place in the market, and when you have thinner markets you can have wider intraday swings," said Brady. .."trading volumes have been especially thin of late, a trend that, stock-market analysts say, could translate into year-end volatility. "What has become quite apparent is that many clients have simply closed up shop for 2009," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

Notes On Jim Rogers FT.com Interview Nov. 2009

http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/11/10/jim-rogers-financial-times-interview-novemver-03-2009/

* The $USD is a terribly flawed currency
* There are so many pessimist views on the dollar, that there is the possibility of a rally
* If the $USD is replaced as a reserve currency, most likely it will be the Euro
* The Chinese are going to be forced more and more to open up their currency
* commodities are not in a bubble, yet
* We have a catastrophe coming in oil and is surprised oil is not higher
* Wouldn’t buy Gold right now,but would if it goes down
* Gold will double in the next several years
* You might make more money in Silver than Gold.
* The idea that you can solve a crisis of debt and consumption with more debt and consumption is absurd
* You can solve the problem by letting people go bankrupt, and restart from point zero.

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