NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





New Years Prediction, where will the market be?


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 5 posts (0 thanks)
    2. looks_two Poocher with 3 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 cunparis with 3 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Silvester17 with 2 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one gannman with 4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two cclsys with 2.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 websouth with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 cunparis with 0.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 12,926 views
    2. thumb_up 13 thanks given
    3. group 6 followers
    1. forum 21 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




 
Search this Thread

New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

  #1 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,396 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,172
Thanks Received: 101,536

I'd like to hear from all of you -- in about 30 days we'll be starting a new year, where do you think the market be on the first trading day of the new year?

I'm primarily interested in hearing about S&P 500 but I think would be interesting to hear predictions on other indexes and even currencies and commodities.

For what it's worth, I've been on a bearish sentiment regarding the S&P for quite some time now. I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down. I think holiday sales this Christmas are going to be abysmal, but sometimes that doesn't/can't really factor too much into the market by the 1st of the year, even as forward-thinking as it tries to be.

I think we're going to see a lot of above-average income families drastically cutting their spending this holiday, and these families I feel spend 3-5x more than a typical family, so when they cut back it will be felt in a big way.

As for oil, I feel like the only place it can go is up.

So my predictions, without any technical analysis/chart relevance, just personal sentiment:

ES - 995.00
CL - 86.00

What's yours?

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #2 (permalink)
 MXASJ 
Asia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Posts: 796 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 109
Thanks Received: 800

- On average, the DJIA and SP500 have returned +1.7% in December since 1950
- On average, Small Cap (R2K) begins to outperform Large Cap in Mid December to start the "January Effect."

2009 Stock Traders Almanac

No personal views on where we will end up as my big lesson for 2009 was that opinions don't matter, price does.

Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,396 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,172
Thanks Received: 101,536



MXASJ View Post
- On average, the DJIA and SP500 have returned +1.7% in December since 1950
- On average, Small Cap (R2K) begins to outperform Large Cap in Mid December to start the "January Effect."

2009 Stock Traders Almanac

No personal views on where we will end up as my big lesson for 2009 was that opinions don't matter, price does.

Yup I remember such stats too. And I'm not suggesting a swing trade This is just for fun, just like the teenage attitude method thread.

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
Hapster's Avatar
 Hapster 
San Diego, California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Felton
Trading: CL, GC
Posts: 141 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 81

Hey, Mike.... good question. Below are my predictions for close of trading on December 31, 2009.

Now, if you asked what the numbers were going to be a few weeks into the new year, I still think this stock market is an accident waiting to happen, but I think the accident is going to wait till the typically "firm" holidays have come and gone.

Everyone have a great holiday this weekend!!!! There's a lot to be thankful for.

ES = 1060
CL = 70

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,396 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,172
Thanks Received: 101,536

Hi Hapster,

Ok we're definitely on two different ends of this one, so let's see who gets closest

I do agree with you after giving it some more reflection, that the tanking won't happen until first part of the year... but oh well, I made my predictions in good fun and we'll see where it takes us.

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
Posts: 3,603 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 5,139
Thanks Received: 11,527

don't see big evidence for bearish sentiment right now. a good reason for me to stay bullish is, too many people are bearish. the spending is a good argument, but already factored in the market. next year could be different story.

oil is a lot harder to predict. if global economy continues to improve, it should go up. but to have a good recovery, lower oil would be helpful.


ES = 1157.00
CL = 77.00

Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)
 
websouth's Avatar
 websouth 
Perdido Beach, AL
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: graph paper
Trading: The shiny stuff
Posts: 1,209 since Jul 2009
Thanks Given: 1,116
Thanks Received: 1,335

First Quarter

ES = 900
CL = 90

I don't really know these numbers. I don't follow or trade these numbers so really approximate. US is getting ready to crash. It's going to be ugly. We are in a retracement currently.

Mike says -I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down.

Any one who feels otherwise can you please justify your position. What is the positive news...? The next thing to hit will be commercial real estate.

Who will pay for Dubai's crumbling debt mountain? | The National Business Review - New Zealand - business, markets, finance, politics, property, technology and more

Commercial Real Estate: The Next Bubble? at SmartMoney.com


https://www.wsj.com/articles/BT-CO-20091126-707330

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,162
Thanks Received: 2,093


Big Mike View Post
For what it's worth, I've been on a bearish sentiment regarding the S&P for quite some time now. I feel like the second wave is imminent and we'll see a big push down. I think holiday sales this Christmas are going to be abysmal, but sometimes that doesn't/can't really factor too much into the market by the 1st of the year, even as forward-thinking as it tries to be.

We agree on the S&P. I've been waiting for the top for a while now, even took a couple stabs at it. I don't want to give a number because anything can happen, but after Thanksgiving day's drop, I think we've seen the top and we're headed back down.

We disagree on oil. I think oil, gold, & euro will all drop with the indexes (they're all correllated at the moment although that doesn't mean it'll continue) with the dollar rising. Everything is hinging on the dollar. And if the dollar goes up, which I believe it will, then oil will go down. I can easily see oil at 60 and even below 50. I don't swing trade oil so I don't really care what it does.

I would like to get off a short on gold, just waiting for the right moment. I believe we are seeing the climax right now and are headed for a major correction.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
 
sam028's Avatar
 sam028 
Site Moderator
 
Posts: 3,765 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 3,825
Thanks Received: 4,629

On 12/31:
ES = 1150
CL = 80

I agree with Silvester.
Dubai or not Dubai, the trend still bullish for ES (for me).
For 2010, it's another story.

But like everyone here, this is just for fun, I don't swing any of these.

Success requires no deodorant! (Sun Tzu)
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)
 goldilocks 
NYC, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NT
Trading: ES
Posts: 65 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 117
Thanks Received: 81


Good morning-- In my opinion, the market could have very volative ranging swings to the end of the year, hitting FIBs areas from the High of 1586.75 of Oct. 07 to Low of 665.75 in March 09: so, (you can check me on the numbers) possibly down to the 23.8% & 38.1% retrace areas -- 900's and 1020's respectively and back up to 50% (1120's) & maybe even to 61.8 % (1240 area) in reaction to news... There already seems to be a lot of revisiting of the 38% (1020 area ) as showing on a weekly chart and movement up to in FIB #s the 50% (approx. 1120) but maybe it will be when the big players are supposedly back and things really settle in -- in January 2010, that we will, imo, see more decisive, committed trend movement.

Interesting point on commercial real estate, which is supposedly the last to get hit by a downturn. In this case, though, depending on the scale of the hit, what a lot of people don't know is that insurance companies tie some of their product to it. And, it's an unknown as to how much exposure or how well positioned these companies are to handle that . So, commercial real estate and further debt situations - as many more are expected- (such as Dubai), could be a wild card in fluctuations, taking the market lower, depending on timing and how many news events happen at once.

Just Stocks or Indicies too?? [COLOR=#0000ff]http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-market-trade-remarkably-light-2009-11-25[/COLOR]
"There's a defensive mentality taking place in the market, and when you have thinner markets you can have wider intraday swings," said Brady. .."trading volumes have been especially thin of late, a trend that, stock-market analysts say, could translate into year-end volatility. "What has become quite apparent is that many clients have simply closed up shop for 2009," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

Notes On Jim Rogers FT.com Interview Nov. 2009

[SIZE=2][COLOR=#0000ff]http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/11/10/jim-rogers-financial-times-interview-novemver-03-2009/[/COLOR][/SIZE]

* The $USD is a terribly flawed currency
* There are so many pessimist views on the dollar, that there is the possibility of a rally
* If the $USD is replaced as a reserve currency, most likely it will be the Euro
* The Chinese are going to be forced more and more to open up their currency
* commodities are not in a bubble, yet
* We have a catastrophe coming in oil and is surprised oil is not higher
* Wouldn’t buy Gold right now,but would if it goes down
* Gold will double in the next several years
* You might make more money in Silver than Gold.
* The idea that you can solve a crisis of debt and consumption with more debt and consumption is absurd
* You can solve the problem by letting people go bankrupt, and restart from point zero.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on December 8, 2009


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts