New Years Prediction, where will the market be? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

New Years Prediction, where will the market be?
Updated: Views / Replies:8,930 / 21
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:2

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Posts: 45 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 33 given, 18 received

Seems everyone I talk to is expecting a Santa Claus Rally...that's almost enough to make me wanna go short right about now!

*THE* trade of 2009 has been "ABTD" (Anything But The Dollar). ES has had a correlation of 0.90 to EURUSD this past 8 months, typically the correlation is not statistically significant. I think Roubini is right, a very large % of the reflation we have seen in risk assets this year has been funded by USD carry trade and when it unwinds it's gonna be messy.

*When* is the big question. The press mistakenly believe that USD carry will only be unwound when the Fed starts raising rates. Not so. All that needs to happen for carry trades to start to be unwound is for volatility of risk assets to rise. There is a heap of complacency in risk assets right now. VIX at 21 when we don't even know whether the US is out of recession? You see vol kick up and carry traders will start running for the exits. The World is massively short the USD and once this starts to unwind, I think we'll see an almighty short squeeze in the USD and a corresponding collapse in the price of risk assets.

The other thing that happens is the press/investment community at large ascribe a HUGE amount of information value to movements in the stock indexes. If the Dow is strong, the economy must be good. If the Dow is weak, the economy must be bad. So a steep fall in the stock indexes will be enough to get everyone talking about double-dip recession etc which will further dampen consumer sentiment etc.

So keep your eye on DXY! Once it bottoms (and it may have just done that IMHO)...helmets on!

ES: 1040
CL: 65


Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to gannman for this post:
  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, MT,
Broker/Data: Forex
Favorite Futures: Forex
Poocher's Avatar
Posts: 303 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 361 given, 107 received

I hope you're right on both counts BigMike.

But that's the spooky part...when the prognosticator(Neely) hopes and prays that they're wrong but continues to honestly interpret their signals.

Big Mike View Post
Maybe I should sell more of my 401k and build a bomb shelter and start stocking it... cuz if that happens, we'll be near world war 3 I think

I agree there will be a sell off, but even deeper than the first? I think no, even for the entire 2010 year which I also agree will be very bearish, I don't see us dipping below 700.

As for oil, I doubt we'll see it above $100 anytime soon, unless there is in fact a major war.


Reply With Quote


futures io > > > New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Journal Challenge $1600 in Prizes & Free Journalytix for all participants!


The Driving Force Behind the Market w/Earn2Trade

Mar 5

TBA w/Stage5 & iSystems

Mar 12

TBA w/John Grady @ No BS Day Trading

Mar 19

Day Trading Oil Futures: Reducing Risk & Increasing Profits w/DTN IQFeed

Mar 26

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Stochastics min/max Prediction within range bar gain247 NinjaTrader 24 August 7th, 2011 12:51 AM
Recovering from the trap of Prediction Surly Psychology and Money Management 7 May 17th, 2011 06:36 PM
Happy New Years Michael.H Off-Topic 12 January 1st, 2011 08:35 AM
ChaosKit - chaotic time series analysis and prediction LukeGeniol The Elite Circle 9 September 5th, 2010 01:03 PM

ats, average, breakouts, buy, citigroup, cl, commodities, correlation, crude, dow, earnings, elliott_wave_theory, es, eurusd, fed, fibonacci, financial markets, futures, futures markets, gdp, indexes, information, interest rate, intraday, long term, retracement, retracements, review, sentiment, short, short term, signals, silver, sp, sp500, squeeze, standing, stock market, swing, technology, trading, trend, underlying, update, us markets, variable, vix, volatility, volume, warning, wave

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:42 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432 WhatsApp Business,
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2019-02-23 in 0.13 seconds with 15 queries on phoenix