New Years Prediction, where will the market be? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


New Years Prediction, where will the market be?
Updated: Views / Replies:3,536 / 21
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:2

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 2  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

  #11 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,030 received


goldilocks View Post
* The $USD is a terribly flawed currency
* There are so many pessimist views on the dollar, that there is the possibility of a rally
* If the $USD is replaced as a reserve currency, most likely it will be the Euro
* The Chinese are going to be forced more and more to open up their currency
* commodities are not in a bubble, yet
* We have a catastrophe coming in oil and is surprised oil is not higher
* Wouldn’t buy Gold right now,but would if it goes down
* Gold will double in the next several years
* You might make more money in Silver than Gold.
* The idea that you can solve a crisis of debt and consumption with more debt and consumption is absurd
* You can solve the problem by letting people go bankrupt, and restart from point zero.

Has anyone studied his predictions to see how good he is? Lately?

That is all speculation, but I do know one fact: Commercial traders, who have very good track records and are rarely wrong, are:

buying dollars
selling foreign currences such as euro
selling oil
selling gold
selling indexes

the traders buying are the speculators. the problem is the speculators buying now are too late. There are no more speculators left to buy, which is why this is the climax and the speculative bubble is likely to best.

Note that if this doesn't happen, the commercial traders will be required to cover their shorts and they're the only ones left to buy. If they do cover it will be an incredibly explosive rally because the only sellers will be the speculators who bought a long time ago and are ready to take profits (but they won't take profits if they know commercials are covering!!!).

A monumental move is coming up. I never bet against commercials so I'm anticipating a move down.

The companies & countries have reduced costs and inflated the money in order to raise profits and increase GDP. But that can't continue indefinitely. You can only cut costs so much. That's why I think the economy is not as strong as people think. And the commercial traders know that, that's why they're selling.

Anyway, all that doesn't really matter all we have to do is watch price. buy/sell pullbacks and breakouts and enjoy the ride, whichever direction it may go!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cunparis for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

It's good to watch the commercials. But who are they in relation to S&P when 4 major houses account for over 60% of daily volume (I have read higher estimates)? I don't know but I suspect many of them are market makers, esp. in options, who have to keep large hedges going both ways. Does anybody know?

In any case, with SP the commercials are at same net level they were just before the Aug 08 meltdown, so large downside move poss soon. At same time, my seasonal cyclics show that last week in December is the bullish peak week of the year. Sales will be poor this Christmas. US markets especially are now extremely rigged, more so than in the past. Thus: there will be no sell-off until the New Year. Crude will keep treading water also. Gold will go up to 1250 soon and then by Jan 1st will retrace 50% from 1027 recent key low to around 1138.

SP will continue to climb to about 1220 at which point, on Monday Jan5th 2010, or perhaps Tuesday Jan 6th (!) it will make the highest high which will be seen for the next 5 years at least with lows going down to around 780 - 750 at least.

That is a relatively simple scenario. If we get hyperinflation starting in 2010, which I do not expect, all bets are off. Either the markets could go into hyperdrive price-wise even though actual valuations are declining in terms of purchasing power parity, or many of them could end up in default/shutting down, i.e. public auction futures markets in US$ could be a thing of the past.

In terms of Goldilocks queries about currency hedges etc.: I think there are two levels to consider. The first is an extreme systemic failure. It is not likely but nevertheless more like than at any point in the past few generations. In that case, fiat currencies - all of them - will be worthless. Gold and silver are the only sure things to insure against that sort of thing. People who are not rich but have some funds might consider buying bags of silver dimes. They could be handy for paying bills, groceries etc whereas large one-ounce gold coins will be hard to deal with for short term practical needs.

Assuming this doesn't happen and assuming you're not someone trading in multiple currencies holding long term positions (in which case occasional futures options are probably the best approach provided you are hedging enough to make the 1-2% fees worthwhile), all that matters is domestic inflation or purchasing power of one's domestic currency relative to prices of goods and services, not whether or not your currency is worth more or less in terms of other currencies.

A cheap dollar will be good for the US in the longer term because it might - assuming a normal world which this no longer is - revive US industrial productivity without which a developed country is not a developed country any more.

No matter what, within a few short years the post WW II political order internationally will be a thing of the past. America is no longer #1 and will never be again for generations, if not centuries. The balance of power is shifting to Central and Eastern Eurasia where it has been most of the time since about 500 BC with very few exceptions.

America will be like the UK and France the past 60 years - a fine country but no longer an empire, albeit with a couple of decades of seriously hard times. Europe will be generally stable, wealthy but increasingly fragmented class-wise as wealthy elites entrench further and the middle class have less wriggle room, albeit the past few decades they have had more upward mobility class-wise than Americans (see NYT excellent study on this two years ago). China will go through boom and bust cycles with more booms than busts. Russia will become military/defense anchor of Central Eurasia unless the Chinese pull a fast one and invade them all of a sudden one day!

Japan will continue to be miserable being the most advanced, wealthy and crowded place on earth.

Attached Thumbnails
New Years Prediction, where will the market be?-bm-1127-gc-janprediction.png   New Years Prediction, where will the market be?-bm-1127-es-janpredict.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to cclsys for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Perdido Beach, AL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: graph paper
Favorite Futures: Guitar
 
websouth's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,150 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 1,094 given, 1,299 received


This also kicks in for the new year...

FAS 167

That’s short for Federal Accounting Standards revision 167, effective Jan. 1, 2010. In essence, it’s a new accounting rule that will force financials to bring bad, off-balance sheet assets onto their books… thus a potential trigger for more Wall Street carnage.

“FAS 167 will be a larger and larger issue for the financial markets in the coming months,” explains Dan Amoss, our resident CFA, “and an emerging story in the financial media.

“In short, the banks with large off-balance sheet variable interest rate entity (VIE) exposures will have to hold more capital against these exposures. So they're actively going to shrink the potential size of these VIEs, which are used to house things like credit card receivables.
“This coming consolidation of VIEs is likely one reason that banks have been hoarding cash and jacking rates on business credit cards -- for creditworthy customers -- up to 30% with no advance warning.

“This ultimately means slower formation of new credit, and in many cases -- i.e., Citigroup -- the outright shrinking of its balance sheet to a degree that starves a credit-addicted U.S. economy.”

++++++++

And lest you think we’re making too big a fuss over FAS 167, check out these sound bites. The first is from Freddie Mac’s Q3 earnings report, the second from a Wells Fargo Q3 conference call.

“Under these accounting standards [SFAS 166 & 167], the company will record the underlying mortgage loans in these single-family PC trusts and some of its Structured Transactions on its balance sheet. These mortgage loans have an outstanding unpaid principal balance of approximately $1.8 trillion as of Sept. 30, 2009… While Freddie Mac continues to evaluate the impacts of adoption, the company expects that the adoption could have a significant negative impact on its net worth.”


“I want to update you on our most recent analysis of the impact of the application of FAS 166 and 167, which is expected to result in the consolidation of certain off-balance sheet assets currently not included in our financial statements. We provided a preliminary analysis in our second-quarter 10-Q. Based on our continued refinement of this analysis, we now expect approximately $55 billion in incremental GAAP assets to be brought on balance sheet, representing approximately $28 billion in incremental risk-weighted assets… we continue to explore the sale of certain interests we hold in securitized residential mortgage loans, which would further reduce the amount of incremental GAAP assets and incremental risk-weighted assets.”


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to websouth for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

PS. First, I trust you guys realise that the stentorian pontificatory tone in my above post was tongue-in-cheek.

Second: zero hedge is a very good financial blog worth checking out.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to cclsys for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, MT,
Broker/Data: Forex
Favorite Futures: Forex
 
Poocher's Avatar
 
Posts: 303 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 360 given, 106 received

es=450

cl= with major eco slow down but middle east war =$200

Glenn Neely of Neowave a few months ago had the 450 es estimate but I don't know what's the latest. Many Elliotticians have the same view.

Reply With Quote
 
  #16 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received


Poocher View Post
es=450

cl= with major eco slow down but middle east war =$200

Glenn Neely of Neowave a few months ago had the 450 es estimate but I don't know what's the latest. Many Elliotticians have the same view.

nice prediction.

but did you take in consideration that there're less than 20 trading days left? that certainly would be a nice crash.

Reply With Quote
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, MT,
Broker/Data: Forex
Favorite Futures: Forex
 
Poocher's Avatar
 
Posts: 303 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 360 given, 106 received

No I did not take into consideration that there were 20 days left...I was thinking 2010 in general.

Reply With Quote
 
  #18 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,214 received


Poocher View Post
es=450

cl= with major eco slow down but middle east war =$200

Glenn Neely of Neowave a few months ago had the 450 es estimate but I don't know what's the latest. Many Elliotticians have the same view.

Maybe I should sell more of my 401k and build a bomb shelter and start stocking it... cuz if that happens, we'll be near world war 3 I think

I agree there will be a sell off, but even deeper than the first? I think no, even for the entire 2010 year which I also agree will be very bearish, I don't see us dipping below 700.

As for oil, I doubt we'll see it above $100 anytime soon, unless there is in fact a major war.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,157 given, 2,030 received


Big Mike View Post
Maybe I should sell more of my 401k and build a bomb shelter and start stocking it... cuz if that happens, we'll be near world war 3 I think

I agree there will be a sell off, but even deeper than the first? I think no, even for the entire 2010 year which I also agree will be very bearish, I don't see us dipping below 700.

As for oil, I doubt we'll see it above $100 anytime soon, unless there is in fact a major war.

Mike

If oil gets down to $35 again, I'm thinking about buying some 2016 CL futures for a long term play. What do you think?

Reply With Quote
 
  #20 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,214 received



cunparis View Post
If oil gets down to $35 again, I'm thinking about buying some 2016 CL futures for a long term play. What do you think?

I think it won't get down to $35.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > New Years Prediction, where will the market be?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Stochastics min/max Prediction within range bar gain247 NinjaTrader 24 August 7th, 2011 12:51 AM
Recovering from the trap of Prediction Surly Psychology and Money Management 7 May 17th, 2011 06:36 PM
Happy New Years Michael.H Off-Topic 12 January 1st, 2011 08:35 AM
ChaosKit - chaotic time series analysis and prediction LukeGeniol The Elite Circle 9 September 5th, 2010 01:03 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:47 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.19 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.132.197