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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #1 (permalink)
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

I would like to post regular charts with certain types of bar pattern setups that I find useful and which form the basis of a day trading plan I am working to clarify in the next few weeks.

Because my dialup connection worsened considerably of late to the point of being basically unworkable (cuts in and out) and because a high speed connection should be coming in soon (the radio tower was installed in August but the local power company can't be bothered to hook it up yet!) I am not live trading so all results shown will be in SIM. I will, however, only show actual entered positions as shown by the Ninja-generated entry-exit arrows. This provides me with opportunity to train in them further whilst illustrating.


Summary of approach:

Basically using Support and Resistance along with some reference to longer-term charts for trend in order to justify breakout entries (from SR levels).


The first pattern I show today I just took after opening up with live market data after a break from am trading.

In shorthand I call it : 'Pattern SR'.

When only using price bars, there are two main SR levels I look at:

1. Previous Highs and Lows, especially those with volume and which are on longer timeframe. With 5 min I reference 30 min, with tick charts I tend to reference 3* higher. Not consistent, but there you go!

2. Pattern SR (the one shown today). This is the point where the market formed a bottom, say, and made a HH. In Brook's terms, I think, this would be the entry price of a H2 when buying after a bottom formation.

Reason for this pattern: all too often when one enters a trade at this level, it runs up a little ways, enough for a decent profit but not enough for Risk-Reward ratio to be satisfied. Then it comes back down to that area to flush out the weak players who just got on board. By 'weak players' I mean day traders who do not hold positions very long.

On the chart, I placed an orange dot at that level, along with a line. The line is the BO Pattern level = the relevant high + 1 tick.

I moved the dot down lower because of money management. The stop was placed 2 ticks below the recent low, the market is in consolidation type behaviour because it ran up and failed to take out the previous high. It is also in the middle of a MP hump. So the PT will not be for the moon.

Entered at 1.12 at 1141.30; Stop 1140.50; PT 1142.8.
Risk-Reward: 1.75.
MAE: 6. MFE: 14
Exit: 14
Additional Possible after exit: 0. (Lucky call).

Notes from SS journal:

Holding for more after 7, not placing BE.
1.26, no action but holding for training.
127: aha! upmove; 10 poss. Volume trail to +5.
128: Tgt filled. Well done holding. Exit on Run High (RH).

Rules:
Entry: followed the rules for both MM and pattern.
Exit: followed the plan.
Questionables: am still always in two minds with BE stops, trailing stops etc.

+++

Basically, this ended up being a trading range type play although it was a bit too soon to call it that at time of entry.

Note: am currently working on fine-tuning bar patterns in conjunction with volume, which is the little diamonds and suchlike on the screen. As these patterns become clarified, I will post examples of them as well.

Attached Thumbnails
Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-aj-pattsr-1119.png  

Last edited by cclsys; November 19th, 2009 at 03:00 PM. Reason: unable to paste in properly from Excel
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  #2 (permalink)
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A basic PF chart which I intend to work with tomorrow with new window setup:
DOM in the middle instead of to one side.
PF on left, my trading chart (3 box reversals).
30 min on right for LT perspective.

(nice to have a new 23" screen..)

I put this chart up because it demonstrates the underlying orderliness of the market in a way that is much harder to see with bar charts. Note the ladder-stepping quality of a new low, correction back up to previous BO down low, then down again, the correction back up to previous SR again, etc. PF charts reveal this sort of dynamic very clearly and are excellent at showcasing consolidation zones/patterns out of which breakouts may emerge. By condensing the time factor during strong moves, they emphasise the SR structure of the market.

( the magenta dots are money-management guides placed at a ratio of 1.5 profit to loss assuming entry above high of bar (for longs) with stop below low of bar. They are inaccurate due to the nature of PF charts because I forgot to code in something different for PF charts, but still they give a rough idea of the percentage of times PT's are hit after new moves get going.

Attached Thumbnails
Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-1119-pf-basic-gc.png  
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Friday Nov 20th Morning Trades:


Am unable to figure out how to paste in formatted text here so that it comes out right, so instead attach screenshots of
a) my SS notes/journal for today
b) picture of main chart used for trading.

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General: last night after posting on 'All you Need' thread a couple of different ideas for simple layouts including the Volume Only version that has no price bars only MP and Jstats, and a PF (Point and Figure )chart which clarifies things in a particular way, did two things today.

1. Put the DOM in the middle of the screen. Thankfully have new 23" screen.
2. Put PF ST trading chart on left.
3. Put 30 range LT chart on right.

The idea being to have the DOM in the middle because that is what is actually being traded - price. In fact, this setup is better for scalping which is what I was not doing today with the PF charts which slow things down.

To make PF charts clearer, custom-coded an altered Donchian channel to plot always the number of ticks above/below the PF bar of the PF box size, i.e. if PF box size is 3, as in this chart, Donchians assume that 3 tick offset and plot accordingly. This is because PF charts do not show the prices above or below their Highs and Lows if they were not sufficient (in 3 tick increments) to move the plot higher so after the bar has closed when a new one forms, you cannot see on the chart what the high or low was. This solution still does not show that, but at least you can more easily see the spot where the bars will next form if they continue, or reversal areas. Small thing, but helpful.

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Trading:

Trade #1:

Time: 9.17
RR Ratio 1.93.
9 MFE. 3 MAE.
Exit at trailed stop -3 = -$34.4.

Comments: a little aggressive but valid. Aggressive in sense that trend had not clearly turned yet and this was just normal retracement in up move with the PT at 1136.2 being sort of nowhere: below the Patt BO level which was more likely at 1137.6, but way above the DL (overnight) at around 1132.

Note: I was not set up in time, but this trade should have been taken 2 bars earlier at BO of narrow (white) inside bar with low initial risk and higher probability of getting at least 1.5 ratio PT since the beginning of a potential pullback/correction. This one was later in the move. It almost made enough for daily target but I was shooting for more because of risk-reward ratio rules which for now mean at least 1.5 to 1.

Trade #2:

Time: 9.26
RR 175
MFE 49 MAE 9
Exit at trailing stop +25 = $245.60 = $211.2 for the day.
DONE.

Comments: Used Volume trail once over $200 because mkt at important SR level and did not want to 'give back' once daily profit target more than exceeded. Of course as soon as my stop was hit, market went 20 ticks higher in the next minute or so! Retro: this was a silly stop level because if you look at the chart you can see that market was above that SR level (and of course had gone higher already which you cannot see on this PF format) so a pullback to the SR level was a good buy entry level (pattern SR from lead post in this journal thread) and therefore a poor trailing stop level. Indeed, could have added second contract if being really aggressive with 10 tick stop for net $0.00 trade but possibility of far more. That is not what I am attempting to do however so this worked well.

Daily Target is 1%.
Assuming $5000 per unit (aggressive) = $50.00.
I am shooting for $100 (2%) during this period before highspeed installed and live trading resumes.

Am also mainly trading single lots to focus on basic risk-reward ratios. Later will get into 2-3 car situations but for now assuming all units enter and exit at same price, so trading with single lots is fine.

Notes: the PF charts clarify things in terms of support and resistance.


Review:
#1:

Entry: Followed the Rules
Exit: Followed the Rules.

#2:

Entry: Followed the Rules
Exit: Followed the Rules.

Adherence to rules: 4-4 = 100%.

Intend to work further with this PF approach because it limits entry signals and I tend to overthink basic bar charts, which still remain my favorite 'indicator'.

Thanks to Roonius for coding and making available PF Custom Type. Well worth the $35.00 I paid to have the capability.

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Night session action. Tomorrow's profit target of 1%/$50.00 reached in a couple of minutes. I was not planning to do anything, just wanted to track how Gold is in the evenings when the Asians are waking up and now increasingly dragging the rest of the world along with them. Used to be the other way around and they would wake up to see what we had done to their world while they slept!

But this was too classic a setup and what I want to show in this (my) journal are various setups with the caveat that I take them. For now in SIM, later in actual.

Here we are in a clear uptrend, and indeed into new lifetime highs with previous support from an hour or so ago. It rocketed up at the open, but interestingly enough did not gap from Friday's close. I've never read this anywhere but I regard this is very bullish. Why? Because there are people committing to the long side so they wanted to get in as cheap as possible and they had enough oomph to push it up 9 pts - which used to be a lot in Gold - in a few minutes.

Then stalled near 1160. (For Gold, every 10 pts seems to be quite significant. A very metric market. Went up a bit further and then corrected back down to the identifiable SR level (some call them pivots) which I marked on the chart with the thick green dash SR line.

Why is it identifiable? Because of the initial high at 59.x, then the pullback, then the breakthough with pause at 60 again at 19.05 on that big bar. Then it made another move up to the high thus far with a couple of climax/churn bars which often indicate the end of a move.

The correction was also very nice. Fast but not excited with very clean lower low lower high bars to within a tick or two of the SR level at 1160.

So I put in the stop entry above the last high with a stop below the low as soon as that last blue down bar had formed. I was not willing to buy around the low at the SR level because I wanted to see some bullish commitment first.

Initially had 2-1 risk in summary below, but as soon as daily target hit, and because this is a night session which I am not familiar with, decided to bail. I also noticed volume changing once it got to around where I stopped out. This is not a good habit, but again - daily profit target was reached so...

Trade #1 Night Session Gold

Entered 7.33 Exit 7.41
Entryprice 1160.4
Stop 1159.3 = 2 ticks below RL (run low) support = 11 ticks.
Initial Target just below High at 1162.4 = almost 2 RR ratio.
MAE/Heat: did not notice, but I think only 1 tick.
MFE: +10
Exit +8 at 1161.2
Net: $75.6 = 1.5%

Entry: followed the rules
Trailing: followed the rules (no premature BE or exit when nothing happened first few minutes)
Exit: did not follow rules by holding to original target but did achieve daily profit objective in first trade.

So I give myself 3/4 on that = 75%.

As you can tell, my rules are not totally cast in stone which is probably a problem and something I need to work on, one of the benefits I hope to gain by posting a journal here.

Conflict: on the one hand I am committed to holding to a 1.5 or better RR ratio (original target was at 1162.4). On the other hand, there is a daily profit objective. So I was thinking about this earlier today and formulated the following:

1. Don't take any trade unless market structure or method indicates good probability of at least 1.5-1 reward to risk.
2. With first trade, place initial stop at that target but if there is any hesitation once mkt has run past daily PT, take the PT and be done.
3. In the event first trade is a loser, rigid adherence to MM rules is a must with more like 1.75-2 versus 1.5 being the goal.
4. If a second loser, RR must be 2 so only trades with 2 or better likelihood will be taken, i.e. I will not try to scalp out of 2 losers with little 1-3 tick risk trades and 3-5 PT. May also move to longer term chart to trade for a larger move.

Chart: I uploaded my Ichi suite to downloads section today so had them on the chart in stripped down form. I really like the clouds. Also have the Dvalue and new Dvalue Weekly to compare to Ichis.

I have also noticed that you can really tell where these thick zones are in the price chart, basically anywhere the market has stalled or crossed over several times. The Clouds are different though because they are drawn 27 and 81 bars beforehand. I like them and they work - for me - as dynamic pivot lines and also trend confirmers or SR zones that need to be convincingly penetrated etc.

Apart from that, just Volume and RPM. I have the IchiSqueeze down below - not plotting correctly - but even though I think it's an excellent indicator in many ways, I never look at such things since 90% of my attention is always on the price bars. Also, it is configured for a white background chart and looks totally cartoonish on this otherwise fairly clean setup.

Attached Thumbnails
Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-1122-gold-night-session.png  

Last edited by cclsys; November 23rd, 2009 at 04:42 PM. Reason: RR ratio 1.5 - 1 rule versus mistype of 2-1.
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  #5 (permalink)
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Monday Nov 23.

I am having a hard time putting things into a SS then pasting them over into this window. Perhaps there's an HTM trick I am not aware of. If so, any hints anyone? For now, I attach screenshots of SS and chart with less text commentary about the RR, entryp, stop etc. which is in the SS pic.

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#1. Apart from the fact that shorting a lifetime high in a (weekly) parabolic bull market, now the dominant lead market in world finances despite being a minor futures contract, is totally ridiculous, there is nothing to say except that if I had moved the stop to above the next number, the profit target placed at reasonable SR level with permissible RR ratio would have been hit almost to the tick. Right idea, wrong stop placement, but in any case, absurd trade which I took only because am in SIM, but that's no excuse.

Entry: did not follow rules.
Exit: did follow rules but should have bent them to place stop just above 1171 versus at 70.8, RR would still have been fine. SIM gave me better fill which I am taking because it does happen and it was a fast mkt when stop was hit.

Result 0 out of 2 = -100%.

#2. Valid entry, in fact right at the PT of trade above. Have discovered drawing Rays. You can see the Ray I drew just above the thicker SR line. Thick lines start as Rays but are changed to thick once they have been tested/retested at least once after being a Ray.I put this Ray in because after initial breakthrough of SR this level was tested twice if look at the bars carefully. So it works as a sort of Patt BO SR. I should give it a different name. SR T2 = pullback to SR double test.

Anyway, got in there. Exit covered with #2.

#2
A minute later added to position with pattern upside BO (Brooks H1 or H2 depending how you count them - have not read book). PT was just below the DH = lifetime high. There is an orange dot where I should have drawn a Ray but hadn't figured them out yet and didn't notice when going through the chart afterwards. That was Tgt#1 and is a perfect example of what I call a 'Pattern SR' versus one from High or Low swings. This #2 tgt was a little higher 3 ticks below DH.

Had a trailing stop in the ATM which loads by default in saved RR 2 strategy that I thought had turned off but hadn't. In any case, both trades were quick winners.

Moved PT down on #1 on volume resistance and with daily PT's (net of first loser) more than exceeded. PT was hit a few seconds later.
#2 stopped out on ATM trail which actually I adjusted down and which didn't work, but the net result was significant gains relative to daily PT.

#1 -6
#2 +18
#3 +7

Rules for #2 & 3:

Entry rules: followed entry rules.
Exit rules: bent exit rules on #1 on vol resistance and DPT met.
trailx on #2 perfectly reasonable.
MM rules: followed MM rules. Net risk on #1 & 2 when placed was 11 ticks since stop moved to 2 ticks below forming RL (Run Low). So now I had 2 trades on with same risk as 1 but essentially now almost 4-1 Reward to Risk which is very good. That is an excellent situation, so that gets a 12.5% bonus.

3/4 = 75% + bonus = 87.5%. Not bad.

$$ result:

1 -$64.4
2 $175.6
3 $65.6
Net: $177.00 = 3.5%, three times daily goal.

Notes: would like to present how I draw my SR or 'pivot' lines. Not sure how to do it but I think others might find it of interest and also may have suggestions as to how to improve/reconsider the method. It's very simple, but perhaps the main thing I use, even more than the bars, and also more than vol which I am still learning to pay attention to mainly via BV2.

Good day. There is little emotion in SIM so that part of it is not an issue and of course that is the main issue. However at least I am now picking entries based on whether or not MM rules are met, i.e. if the next reasonable tgt does not provide favorable RR numbers, it is not taken. That is a new - albeit very simple - change to my approach.



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  #6 (permalink)
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OK, I've made up a chart from today's action in Gold putting in the SR lines as I like to draw them. It's a bit confusing to read because the chart is compacted to tell the story. In live trading it is wider so the current price zone is less cluttered (also most of the Dvalue lines are to the left which is not the case when viewing afterwards.) I also took off the daily dvalue and entryexit arrows to reduce clutter.

How I do it:

Clear Top or Bottom starts off as a thick SR Ray.
Pattern SR's start off as thin Rays. They are changed to thick on retests and I have marked the point at which I changed them with green or red arrows. There is no significance to the color and should probably have made them both green, but some are drawn above and some below, that's all.

The white arrow is where I entered in the Daily Journal log in post above.

The grey vertical line is the market action that occurred after I finished drawing the lines. I did add in a couple after the fact which should have been drawn during the time I was posting the journal.

The gray arrow is where I would usually delete a line that does not seem to be relevant any more, or because there are too many too close to each to be helpful. Probably there are a few more that I would take off at this point. These are used for daytrading, most daytrading sessions only last 1-3 hours tops, so rarely would there be more lines than this and often fewer.

( The dark red line is Dvalue Weekly POC. The dashed thick green line is the Ichi KijunLT 81 bar Donchian Middle line, my main LT indicator. I pay attention both to its slope and price. I will be changing the color after today because of all these green Rays.)

I suspect this chart is just too 'busy' for most to find of interest, but I find this way of drawing pivots very easy, and also often very effective. I take pattern entries quite similar to Brooks' I suspect, but only around these SR levels and now only when those SR levels provide targets that will give acceptable RR levels. Sometimes if an entry pattern is triggered and the RR level is not acceptable I will put in limit order closer to stop in order to get that level acceptable though not at point where trade would be nullified. This latter is almost impossible because my stops are usually tight and there is little of significance between the entryprice and the stop - which is why the stop is there in the first place, i.e. it's the first zone where the trade entry logic is being challenged.

After action: you can see in the hour after the lines were drawn that they proved quite helpful. Some of them might have been lifted and others put in. But the recent low with the two climax bars happened at a 'Key Area' (2 thick lines close together drawn at different times, the lower one from much earlier off the chart). Then mkt went up to POC where there also would have been a new Patt BO down Ray, and the top of ST Ichi cloud AND within 1 tick of LT Ichi 81bar median.

(Note: the lower lines were drawn, some of them, last night or earlier so they have not been reviewed this am. They were so far away from the price. As I type, mkt is moving down hard and some of them are about to challenged.)

If anyone has questions or challenges the approach - esp behind the 'pattern' SR's, please feel free.

So two things on this chart:

1. How I draw the lines and you can tell from the beginning of the Rays after 906 when I drew them.
2. How those SR lines worked both after being drawn and also
3. How they held up as helpful after I stopped drawing (vertical line).

Attached Thumbnails
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Couldn't resist showing a variation on these SR patterns, and one of my favorites, although this was a slightly muddled example and I rushed into it since it was there the second I switched over from the last entry to the live chart. The lower SR line was drawn from Highs made around 3 am and tested several times. The upper SR line is from the pattern SR entry level from my trade#2 today, the 'money trade' of the day.

But just before entry there had been penetration of those lines (the low volume gray bar to the right of the 2 climax bars) making the whole situation a little 'scraggly', i.e. without clear bottoms being formed. This is sort of bullish to my mind but anyway.

I took 3 entries just to show examples of the entry points. The logic is as follows:

Once a significant SR has been breached and it is below both clouds, i.e. breaching longer term support, sell 2 ticks below the SR that was breached. I call this an 'SR Sell'. ( or an 'SR Buy'). This trade would have been more valid if that gray bar on the left wasn't there, so pretend it didn't happen.

The second entry was at a sort of Pattern SR sell area just beneath previous pattern SR lines (thin rays). I could have been a tick or two higher with this but that white Inside Bar seemed significant so I put the entry 2 ticks below the low of that bar.

The third entry was the most 'valid' in the series because of the muddled situation and happened on a simple pattern LL after the rebound. This was also after gray lowvol bars indicating that all that was going on was stop hunting up above, so a move back down is more likely. The stop would have been just above the recent RH (run high), and the target just above the recent RL-DL (Run low, Day low).

I did not follow the rules for the exits since I mainly just wanted to show the entries. No doubt there will be some clearer examples in days following. When possible new trends are emerging, these can be very effective trades, often with tight stops before or shortly after entry.

(In this case, I feel that selling gold when it is making lifetime highs in a quasi parabolic mkt is a bit absurd, but anyway. In fact, the exits happened when two or three 'flash' orders of 600+ were placed. The usual Vol in the DOM is around 20-60. 600 is ridiculous. They were not placed to be taken but to confuse other automated algorithms (at least that's my theory). This is a new thing in Gold and it means the program traders are moving into the contract which also suggests that volumes/liquidity will soon be increasing in this instrument as well. Whether this is good or bad I don't know. Especially since short sellers are probably sitting on tungsten bars, not gold bars!

As I type this, the mkt went through all original targets and penetrated the lowest ray line on the chart by 2-3 ticks before now bouncing again to - guess where? - that SR line drawn from my #2 trade pattern entry (to the tick!) and thus another SR sell. Immediate selloff of 10 ticks when that SR level touched.


Last edited by cclsys; November 23rd, 2009 at 01:48 PM.
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The experimental FibBandsRatioTgts indicator - which probably needs a new name - seems to be working. Now with ability to anchor to Open Price either of the first bar of session or to a manually input price 'OpenPrice' input.

This is using the default band settings (1,2,3). Three targets hit, one with # 2 tgt, working on a fourth which is looking iffy. (Yup, at 1.25 ish definitely stopped out and the #2 (purple) tgts on the attached chart were all penetrated.

Cheating a bit on the first target since the one hit (to the tick!) was the last entry whereas two earlier entries from earlier down would have had to weather more than 30 ticks heat to get only about 20 in profits, i.e. they would have been stopped out. But the last one (of that first series) had almost no heat and 45 ticks profit.

Picture: chart showing targets. Targets begin to be drawn on close of bar that made the trigger. So there is no precise entryprice or stop indication, just the target.

No attachment on this thread. Will post in Elite Downloads area in a few days when sure is working properly and no new suggestions/additions needed. In Elite area because several 'Eliters' helped with development in Mikes EnvelopeExpansion thread.

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A better example of SR Sell which I didn't take because was experimenting with a very gutsy Band Trade at the lower 3 band which was at clear SR with two thick lines from earlier. I also had just previously adjusted the #2 targets from 2* tgt1 to 3* because that way they would be closer to Band 3 levels which usually contain most of the action except in runaway trends. This is a correction. So there was #2 target cluster support right there as well.

Order was placed a few bars before price got down there just below band and between the SR's. If the SR's had not been there I wouldn't even have played with this, even in SIM.

Target is 1173.60 (110 ticks) which is 10-1 RR. Already 30 ticks open profit at the next SR pivot. Ideally this trade would have had at least 2 units and first could have exited at first pivot which was a very clear SR Sell level and better example than one above, although I prefer them to happen within 5-15 bars, i.e. just after penetration of key SR.

(Just trail stopped out whilst typing for peasely 14 tick profit.)

The real reason for this pic is the red arrow. Entry 1 tick below the SR line. 2 ticks heat. And now at +18 ticks profit at time of typing. This is not unusual with these SR Buy/Sell trades in clearly trending market.

Market note: although leary of the short side in historical bull charge, earlier Ichi template example showed clear breakdown through both clouds which is very bearish and often indicates beginning of significant trend (within the timeframe being plotted). The longer term cloud medians look back 162 bars for some of the lines, so they are pretty slow, albeit the plot is made 81 bars 'in the future'. (Clouds not on this Fib Band chart).

But the SR sell was picture perfect so I wanted it here on the Journal so everyone can know what I mean by SR Sell or SR Buy in future entries.

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Difficult day today. Got off to a bad start and then made it worse. Will submit SS log later but it fell behind. For now a picture with trades circled.

First two trades (#1 BE-, #2 -10) the first out at BE+ after almost being stopped out. Did not want to have initial DD so bailed out at BE- and of course daily PT hit one minute later. Second had daily profit target hit before reversing but since I am fixated on working with MM I didn't even think to take the PT even though in live trading that will be the approach (Also, was entering trade in SS journal which should not do whilst a trade is in play).

After that a string of losers to -11% (-$550), then recovered to +$17.00 and last trade, which pulled at BE+, would have made the daily minimum target of 1% ($50.00) per car. I messed up several entries in terms of rules, maintained the RR rules throughout, did not double up to save any losers but did take a couple of doubles within the usual parameters, so all in all was okay except for unfortunate start with not taking initial daily profit target when it was handed to me in first 5-10 mins.

Was not really in the right frame of mind and should have waited longer before entering. Then got flustered and refused to take a break. Then finally focused better and pulled out using longer term band-type targets back to the day's midrange area (VWAP) in order to recover the early losses.

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Last edited by cclsys; November 24th, 2009 at 05:31 PM.
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