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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #71 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Blz: first I don't follow forex at all since I am a Canadian resident using a US brokerage and we aren't allowed to trade forex via US brokers. Go figure.

Second, this 'approach' of mine is very new based on
a) seeing a presentation of how to use the vwap-POC relationship as the basis for trading decisions, something which I was fumbling with myself in a vague way but only when
b) a few days ago (3) DeanV kindly made it possible to plot the dynamic PVP/POC so I can study it historically and also easily see previous POC's on the chart intraday as the volume price profile for that day unfolds. This is only the third day since I could do that so clearly I am not experienced at this at all!

Although premature to make a definitive judgment, I feel internally confident/sure that this vwap-POC relationship is indeed worth paying attention to. Also, previous POC's are definitely worth paying attention to. They were always visible on the basic dValue indicator or any other pricevolume ladder for the day, but they are much clearer this way, also you can see the direction over time, i.e. higher POC's past 2-3 hours or lower, which with the normal histos you cannot see. So I am sure the dynamic POC is something I am going to keep on all charts in the future and for me is the single most important price-volume indicator to have in terms of gauging ongoing support-resistance during the day.

As to the vwap times: this is something I am studying. I was over on the NT forum last night asking both Higler (hvwap writer currently unemployed and looking for work so maybe doesn't have time to code for fun right now - or maybe he will over Christmas holidays!) and DeanV to make it possible to mutually call each other's indicators in terms of time. Right now they only line up if you use a 24 hour vwap starting at midnight.

But dValue has the excellent feature of being able to start the day-session histogram at the opening price and end at the end of the day-session. The hvwap has the ability to do the same, however you cannot call the hvwap in the dvalue indicator and specify the time and when I tried to call the dValue indicator inside hvwap NT crashed totally (though it compiled fine of course) and it took me a while to get NT back working again.

So right now the only way to compare the dValue histo and the vwap is on the 24 hour basis, at least if you want the POC skew basis the vwap that is. This is probably confusing to explain verbally, but there it is.

Short answer: because I am fairly new to this and there are limitations with the indicator coding, I have not been able to compare the different vwap-times well, even though I would like to. They definitely are different. Personally I would prefer to work with the day-session vwaps in both indicators but again, since I cannot get dValue to see a day-session vwap, I cannot get the day-session only skew. I can display day-session vwap fine using hvwap indicator, but dValue can only see 24-hour vwap for its skew calculations when I put vwap inside it - as is currently the case with the lower panel skew indy - and NT crashes if I try to put dValue inside the hvwap indicator to calculate the skew from within hvwap. So for now can only calculate 24-hr-based vwap skew starting at midnight. I suspect with many instruments this is really not ideal. For example, better to have day-session only or at least start the 24-hr vwap at day-session start time. Right now, cannot be done - at least if it can I haven't figured out how.

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  #72 (permalink)
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Dec 23rd. No official trades today. Started late after 12-hour much-needed sleep so feel sluggish but better.

Since it was already 11.00 when I opened up, i.e. lunchtime on quasi holiday day, I just played with skew-based multiple entries which this model account can't - or at least shouldn't- be taking. It took 2 hours and a 5% DD before I ended up 2% in the black. So it worked (selling in a mild but steady intraday uptrend) but it was like watching paint dry, twice my PT was touched but not filled which combined boredom with frustration, but in the end it worked. Attach chart and SS for sake of maintaining some continuity here in the journal, but really it was a slow day/period and I do not intend to put on an official trade later today and probably will switch of NT to give myself a break from it and hopefully in next week or two focus more on developing trading plan and getting the SS more helpfully laid out than practicing in SIM so that I am more ready to implement live campaign in early 2010.

Now that SS published, will erase these trades from it since they were not really 'official' ones.

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  #73 (permalink)
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Dec 23 - Confirmed Close ('CC') study in Crude.

My moniker name 'cclsys' comes from an acronym of 'confirmed close' (ccl) which was the basis of all pattern studies I did a few years ago viz. swing formations. I posted the code for a simple swing indicator (dots at SH, SL etc.) in the Tradestation section. Also, in line with the leadin to this journal thread 'Daily Charts and Bar Patterns', here is one of the bar patterns I often use, at this point almost subconsciously it is so ingrained. I don't use it for entries and exits usually (except in Trading Range description below), but to gauge conviction strength in trending markets, also possible bounce levels in trading ranges (TR), i.e. price goes down below previous low in TR but the close does not confirm. In this case, low-risk entries at bottom or top of TR's can be taken with tight stops beyond the recent non-confirmed high or low.

Today's 3 min cht in Crude shows a situation in which a series of HH were not confirmed at the close and therefore constituted =HH's ('equal higher highs') i.e. not really higher highs despite higher price. I have drawn lines at each successive high showing that the closing price on the bars that penetrated previous highs did not 'confirm' the HH.

It's a simple thing, but something to be aware of in terms of gauging strength of a trend. If a trend keeps making non-confirmed HH's or LL's, it indicates a lack of conviction. Strong trends make definitive HH's.

Now that doesn't mean that Crude won't go on to make real HH's later on today; but thus far it has shown lack of conviction so a PB to at least the pre-report SR-P that I drew as a green ray looks likely.

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PS. Actually the first non-confirmed HH bar in the series was the gold bar at 10.30 immediately preceding the red bar where I first drew a HH line. I just didn't notice it. But the principle is the same. Notice how this level sort of held throughout the subsequent sideways action before the buying flurry (and semi-reversal) around closing time (or just after day-closing time I believe), i.e. floor-traders having fun to get diamond bracelets for mistresses time.


Last edited by cclsys; December 23rd, 2009 at 03:38 PM.
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  #74 (permalink)
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OK, here's the next chart in Crude from a little while later.

Market made confirmed HH. Placed order to buy at SR-P 3 ticks above previous high. Was touched and not filled and left it on chart for this picture. Quick winner. Of course more aggressive entry would be to just buy the BO, but given the non-confirmed HH's earlier I personally would not do that.

Skew is still negative but from observing Crude charts, the skew is not very helpful unless you have extremely deep, i.e. institutional level, pockets. Trend is up, confirmed HH after a long time, SR-P worked perfectly if filled, which in this case - at least in SIM - it was not. Suspect it would have been in REAL since would have been one of the first in the queue. Whoops, it just got filled whilst typing. Should have pulled it! Oops, stop hit within seconds of entry!

Why pull the order? Because that SR-P level has already been played out (when the initial entry was touched not filled, i.e. mkt had already retraced there to clean out recent buyers); not only that, but chart shows that the next HH after the first one was another =HH, i.e. not confirmed HH.

So next support valid for buying would be lower down which is new POC at 76.48. But since it's 2.30 now, Crude is done for the day/week anyway; these posts were to illustrate the confirmed close or non-confirmed close pattern analysis, not really to showcase trades therefrom.

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  #75 (permalink)
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cclsys,

I know you played with the gomi indicators. is it similar to the one below? don't have much data...

Attached Thumbnails
Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-es-03-10-12_23_2009-30-min-.jpg   Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-es-03-10-12_24_2009-5-min-.jpg  

Last edited by Silvester17; December 24th, 2009 at 03:36 AM.
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  #76 (permalink)
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Yup. That looks like a commercial version. But since I don't like using those indicators which require ongoing data stream, I haven't given them the time (and study) they deserve. For me the dVal is great because it constructs artificially from range of the bar. Not as exact, but very close and far less process intensive and also doesn't require continuous monitoring.

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  #77 (permalink)
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Dec 24 Redeye Scale-Trading whilst messing around doing other things.

Looking at the chart I am not sure about the initial entry in the last series of 4 buys. But I had different charts up (5 min, 2 min) a while back. Put SD bands into my FibBands indicator which is really just a multi-purpose band indicator that has little to do with Fibs any more although you can apply fib ratios to the multipliers. (My favorite Fibs are 1,2,3!). I think those are Fibs...

But basically was looking at Weekly Vwap (yellow) from Vwapmulti indicator on NT forum giving us a very positive LT skew; also the SD#3 band high is getting up to that level. I was tempted to leave the machine running with a PT up by the yellow band but since it's so far from anything I do in real life (though why not since I could easily have left a BE stop on #4 from down near the VWAP and the other three made nice profits (about $600) and all together the 4 contracts had about $400 heat. (Though my stop loss was below the POC $4,000 lower when I put on the multiple thinking I would let it run overnight to see what happens with this approach!).

I had larger orders down below now pulled.The last one filled (one tick from the RL) was based on a previous POC off the chart which I drew a Ray from. Also current vwap which started at midnight.

Later addition: after I posted this, market went up to the next Ray which was also drawn from previous POC from earlier this week (or last). My original PT was 1 tick below that line. Current RH was 2 ticks below.

I'm telling ya, these POC's pack powerful mojo!

Obviously this is playing around. But to tell the truth, I prefer scale-trading to all other methods. Just don't have the capital for it. So I have to get this vwap-scaling out of my system ASAP in order to return to main job.

That said, I am on vacation now for a week or two and generally mucking around whilst slowly putting together a trading plan for the New Year. The next few days (Christmas) are for goofing around though through the weekend.

Still, it's nice to know that late-night trading (as long as one does NOT look at the screen too much with such slow action) ain't that bad. If I keep being not able to sleep regularly, maybe this is when I'll be working? (hope not!)

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PT hit later, penetrated by a few ticks, then pullback.
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Last edited by cclsys; December 24th, 2009 at 06:44 AM.
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  #78 (permalink)
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cclsys View Post
Yup. That looks like a commercial version. But since I don't like using those indicators which require ongoing data stream, I haven't given them the time (and study) they deserve. For me the dVal is great because it constructs artificially from range of the bar. Not as exact, but very close and far less process intensive and also doesn't require continuous monitoring.

not too crazy about those kind of indicators either. difficult to back test...

forgot to mention why I showed the charts in the first place. it has the option to use vwap in the value area.

merry Christmas

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  #79 (permalink)
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And a Merry Christmas to you. Before going off to make merry myself, my Christmas gift to all. Well, somewhat. A longer term chart of Gold - the main instrument in this thread and now the lead asset internationally.

Have marked a few basic chart formations like H&S - the one at the top being especially classic - and also pointing out value of waiting for retracement (ellipse) as came up in another thread last night.

But this chart has something I found on NT forum last night which although not quite what I want, is still very helpful. An old VWAP modification that draws weird lousy bands, but is the only one that can draw continuous vwaps that don't restart every day at a certain time. VERY helpful.

This chart has 2 month, 1 month, 2 week, 1 week and this week Vwaps. The DValueArea chart is weekly and only keeps the POC's, not the 70-30 Values area.

The dots are from ZigZagUTC, 48 bar = 1 day.

I have marked on the chart several aspects I think of interest. The most important one, imho, is the brutal FACT based on Vwap information which is simple volume-price data not smoothed or anything is that the 2 month VWAP, which started calculating early on in the previous upmove to 1227 has hardly budged at all from its level at that lifetime price peak. This indicates to me that a pullback to 1145 level is at least highly likely even if market is pulled down further towards 1000 level later. Why? Because selling volume has basically only matched previous buying volume and only recently begun to bring that LT vwap down just a little but it is not yet really trending down in the same way it was trending up earlier; and this means that the vwap is basically in the middle, i.e. we have a somewhat symmetrical volume distribution over the past 2 months favoring a 'return-to-the-mean' type market action. Probably the long term histogram would look like a D. Chances are likely that it will come to the apex of that D and that is around 1143. Actually, come to think of it, the difference in slope of the upmove to downmove suggests that probably we have more of a P than a D, which is even more suggestive of a pullback to the apex at 1143. My guess is that we will get that next week before the New Year but the USG might come in with heavy selling during light holiday markets to keep price down, and if they do that the rebound will be that much stronger the week following, probably through to 1170-80.

This is something that would be very hard to see without information from Vwaps, unless you could throw up volume histograms with long-term start dates as well, which I don't think we have an indicator capable of doing in NT and even then they don't usually reveal the vwap price although they do show the key POC/high volume areas.

In any case, if a pullback to 1096 level (far right ellipse) holds and there is a HH breakout from around there, should get a nice 40 point rally to 1145 level, but certainly rectangle low around 1115 at very least. Key level in Feb contract is 1143.30 which is the coral dash line just above thicker crimson line mentioned above. Here we have the POC of the last week that was HH HL with swing low that went on to the peak high, and then two =Swing Highs before final plunge, and where the 1 and 2 month vwaps look like they are going to be converging soon.

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Last edited by cclsys; December 24th, 2009 at 03:59 PM.
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  #80 (permalink)
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I've been keeping an eye on your dValueSkew indicator. It seems to do a great job of indicating times to trade and times to stay out of the market. Naturally it's not perfect, nothing is or ever will be, but it seems to be a pretty great trend filter (at least thus far).

Blz

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