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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

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  #201 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Ninja up and down. Frankly, am strongly considering dumping it. But will not make hasty decision.

Things are working despite endless log errors and so forth.

Had a little idea two days ago and coded it in this morning for fun. Extremely simple: just plot the highs and lows and take off the bars.

Did 3 quick trades this morning, 2 winners, the third a small loser and DONE.

Trade #1: a LL at a level far enough away from the PVP churn zone that it had a decent chance of breaking down to test previous Lows of short term TR. It took a while but once it broke, the modest 1 pt PT was hit easily.
Trade#2: SR level of both 2 recent lows and a previous high at far left of chart. Very good entry as it turned out. Exited on trail to preserve profits then mkt went to the original PT which was SR-R 3 ticks below the previous low.
Trade #3: the SR-R but in fact was a late entry at a point where usually I would have exited on BE+ or already have taken small profits. Since it was a loser and already exceeded DPT, DONE.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #202 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Finally Bertrand at NT was asked to help with my problem. Turns out there was nothing wrong with any indicator in particular (they all compiled), but for some (unexplained) reason, Bollinger wouldn't cooperate in one indicator, hence the inability to export.

The solution:
1. Check that the file in question does indeed compile fine. If it doesn't, fix that.
2. Once it compiles, try to export again but this time also export the problematic file, in my case Bollinger by pulling down System Indicator in the drop-down in the Export section. Then it exports, then the error goes away.

Very easy when you know how. Unfortunately, I deleted a slew of decent indicators because I didn't know about this and the first guys on the case didn't think to suggest it or more likely didn't know about it either.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #203 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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cclsys View Post
...

Very easy when you know how. Unfortunately, I deleted a slew of decent indicators because I didn't know about this and the first guys on the case didn't think to suggest it or more likely didn't know about it either.

run restore.

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  #204 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Not only did I run restore, I did a fresh re-install. Still don't know what the problem was but seem to have fixed it by deleting a few indies I had changed recently. The export problem was after quite a few others that were causing problems because of which first I restored, then I re-installed twice the second time making sure absolutely everything was scrubbed from the registry and everywhere on the main HD, then - when that made no difference - I restored again and finally was told how to fix it.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #205 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Some things came up from an unexpected quarter the past two days. Today I put on trades but in fact was doing other things at the same time. Am not placing in SS record (which is about to be phased out if/when I switch to REAL trading), but for the sake of continuity here I put in a pic:

The losing trade entered around 12.40 had 14 ticks open profit so normally I would have moved stop to BE but was too engrossed in the document I was crafting to follow it. Still, even with that: 11 trades, 2 BE's, 1 loser. Not bad.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #206 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Feb 22nd. Am in a 'pause' phase. Just reviewing rules and plan and watching. Felt it would be helpful to actually stop recording things for a few days and just focus on the charts.

Attach chart from am. Apart from SIM entry/exit arrows (basically was DONE with Trade#2 at 8.26 am), note how the main SR lines drawn from various DValueArea calculations pointed to upcoming moves, provided halting areas etc. throughout the period shown by the chart.

My main trend rules now are quite simple: I like to see the Collective and the Vwap the same color and then take trades in that direction. I am still conflicted with tick versus 5 min chart, am still following both but am getting better at reading them together and being able to choose when to ignore one when trading the other or using one to give added info to the other but not letting a seeming signal in one be later influenced by seeming conflicts or whatever in the other. Ideally there will be just one and I am leaning towards 5 min because I like having one chart that can work with any instrument; that said, the granularity of info for the DValueArea calculations is often quite different and that is really what I am watching now, to see if it really matters when all is said and done. It is also the case that some patterns come out very clearly and accurately with tick charts which are not so easy to see in the 5 min, but that is also true vice versa. But basically the method is more or less fixed, the approach clear in my head despite this last thing to resolve.

The main challenge for me is to be able to get a read on the market so that I know when it is a sideways and narrow time versus a trending time. In this regard, I have found that the Skew Indicator, which was put together simply as an experiment to see if monitoring the skew (positive or negative) was helpful (I don't think it is for my style of trading), is actually very clear at showing trend versus non-trend times because of the ATR-based inner and outer bands I added in there.

Also, when a skew flips after a move as the Value Area moves down or up to the new zone where price has had sufficient volume to flip the PVP up there, it is often a reliable indication that that move is over, at least for now. So I seem to be using the Skew Indicator to act as a red flag against trading too near the PVP where consolidation action is more likely. Whenever I ignore this experimentally, I find I tend to get more losing trades. When the MA and vwap are lined up and the skew indy is beyond the inner bands (it is almost impossible for the latter to be happening without the former also being lined up), nearly always there is a tradeable move. So I use trend both for directional bias and also as indication that the situation will probably yield a tradeable thrust at a price and time where it is both less likely that I will be stopped out and more likely that a good profit will be made fairly quickly.

I am increasingly clear and confident about the method and now it is just a question of settling down with it mentally and then putting it into action. It feels like I need a few more days to really fix the approach in my mind so that I am not second-guessing my own method, something I have a strong tendency to do.
Chart notes: in the early going I was more looking at the 5 min than the 366 tick. The entries were more 'legal' in the 5 min I think, though not so much in the 366 though on review I can see that I am still not following my own rules sufficiently well to begin the REAL campaign.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #207 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Wed Feb 23rd:

if anyone reading this senses a drift of late, it is accurate. There is some sort of muddle going on which is mainly psychological but also connected with a couple of external variables on the personal front which suddenly arose recently, one of which is giving me second thoughts about trading altogether. So I have to work through this to determine whether it's a trap or a breath of fresh air. So it always is with obstacles.

On the one hand am getting clearer in head about rules and why to have them. This seems to be deepening every day. On the other hand, am not really following them. Before going back to REAL another rule: at least 3 (maybe 5 is better) days in a row with 100% rule-following in SIM. The results are not important.

Another thought today: it might be better to have larger stops and then just quit for the day with 2 consecutive losses. Either that or it might be better to have much tighter stops. This is the sort of second-guessing that I should have eliminated by now. In fact the rules are to have a medium stop at entry but move it down ASAP based either on a clear pattern at entry or after entry, the logic being to reduce any initial losses making it easier to recover from them both practically and psychologically.

At the same time it is also becoming clear that the main thing missing in the current method is a market overview filter, so to speak: i.e. when is a favorable time to trade and when not. I think the skew indy is going to be helpful with this.

In any case, today if I had held the first trades longer I would have made DPT quickly. I didn't. I also didn't follow the rules well (marked in text on chart). So I have work to do. But already trying to set rules is giving me a way to evaluate what I am doing so already it is helpful. Hopefully this 'muddle' phase is actually helpful and a necessary part of nailing things down better method and behavior-wise.

Early morning routine now involves a more spacious wake-up, cup of tea, meditation session etc. before turning on the computer. Yes, it means replay files don't start so early, but replay files take back seat to reality. Yes, could run the computer in background, but I live in open floor plan situation and don't like the sound of the fan in the background and also as soon as I turn it on I tend to get involved in it. Better to keep it off, at least for me.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #208 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Am having serious computer issues since last night, some sort of virus I think. Unable to log into Ninja until I found out that all that had happened was that computer clock was moved forward to same day/date but 2040. Lost a lot of recent work doing a restore from last week. But computer still not acting right even now. Might have to go back and do fresh OS install. That would be easy if my DVD drive worked properly, which it doesn't since getting a better motherboard. And so it goes.

In short; the morning was a bust since went to bed at 5 am! In the pm did some scalps but really just playing around - though one trade in there was a 2+ pointer using 5 min SR and the Collective/vwap trend condition. That worked well too. Before hitting the price was slow mkt. Then as it broke, it accelerated and was a quick winner with the PT hit in about a minute I think. After that, most recent ones on chart were just that trend was down, market very slow, so selling high and buying a little lower. The first one was in and out in about 10 seconds and the order had been placed long before price got up there using basic SR analysis. I find the Eds bars very helpful with this to provide extra granularity over and above the averaging statistics derived from DValue. The two together work well to create one overall read on Volume-Price.

I am very happy with my basic chart now apart from the tick vs. minute business. I know what each indicator is saying and why it is there. The only exception is the bands. I am not sure if I really need bands, but I like them and even though I don't pay much attention to them, they do a good job of shaping the context of the price action relative to typical daily ranges so I think they are very helpful even if I don't spend any time analyzing them consciously or using them for stops/profit targets, because they provide instant message on visual level. I also don't watch BetterVolume very much, but do pay attention to the climax bars, especially narrow range ones on tick charts where they are especially helpful, but also the low volume ones often reveal when floor traders are mopping up things in the absence of anything important going on, or sometimes it is a feint one way before the market 'makes up its mind' and moves strongly in the opposite direction. I think of them as 'stop-hunting' bars basically. The skew indy has become helpful. It does a remarkable job of combining some sort of SR value area with possible trending or consolidation analysis. I have yet to see a move above/below the inner bands that doesn't produce some sort of follow-through. It's neat and I am beginning to trust it more, although contrary to what I thought when I wrote it, the negative-versus-positive skew is not something I find all that important. The little atr bands around the PVP are far more helpful. This could be configured as a band indy on the main chart, but enough is enough.

Meanwhile experimenting with 18th century Italian bread recipe. Computer world is a nightmare. But the house smells great!


Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #209 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Still having computer glitches and did a repair this morning. Getting better but Firefox still can't remember to log me in to places automatically and the Options Menu no longer allows me to enable this. Funny stuff going on! Still, did some good SIM work although not really in the zone today with all this monkey business.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #210 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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March 1

Well, I broke two rules today: first, not to trade in REAL until 5 days following the rules
Second I took a trade against the rules in REAL - instant loser!

At first had difficulty pulling the trigger in REAL for the first time in a while. Why I decided to go for it today was that I get the feeling have delayed too long even though much of the delay was due to circumstances beyond my control involving internet connection which, once got, reasonably invited a certain period of testing out various things I couldn't work with on dialup. In any case, I resolved last week not to go into REAL until followed rules in SIM 5 days in a row. So failed that test today completely and decided to stop at that point even with daily loss simply because I am not following the plan. Full stop End of Story!




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #211 (permalink)
 ZTR 
 
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cclsys View Post
but Firefox still can't remember to log me in to places automatically and the Options Menu no longer allows me to enable this.

I use IExplorer for BigMike's & other sites I where I want to be remembered & have a good spell checker. Firefox seems to have a lot of small issues. Example: I'll open a link from Gmail using Firefox then paste it into IE. A minor inconvenience, but works every time.

R.I.P. Andy Zektzer (ZTR), 1960-2010.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #212 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Thanks, Z.

Well, the past week has been interesting. Something percolating in the background came to a full boil rather quickly. In short, I have decided to launch a small local business making and selling artisan style country loaves made from wild yeast, well water, freshly ground organic flour and baked in a stone/clay oven I will build myself, selling once a week Saturday mornings at the local farmer's market.

For a while, this will be my focus until I have decided on what sort of oven and how to build it. Am also in two minds about trading, but suspect the proper course of action is to maintain regular, preferably daily, connection whilst stepping back from having it my only focus, get the plan in place for the bakery operation and then hopefully continue trading once that is set.

This means that this journal might not be continued on a regular basis, at least for a little while and also I have pulled back from the forum whilst spending all my time researching the many and varied aspects of any undertaking. That said, basically the only issue now is determining the type of oven I will build, principally deciding on the construction materials, i.e. do I use bricks or build most of it by hand using simple clay and then slowly drying it out and tempering it myself. Building it will take some time, but fundamentally is no big deal once I have figured out what to build.

Then learning to bake will take a while too, but am confident can do so with the right equipment. If you have high quality water, high quality flour and a good fire oven, frankly it is hard not to turn out good bread, maybe not by master baker-in-Europe standards (that takes years of experience) but compared to anything else available in my area it will immediately be by far the best even if I don't know what I am doing. Very few people use fresh flour and nobody uses a clay/brick wood-fired oven. End of story. Aside from bringing in guaranteed weekly income which will take pressure off of trading a (far too) small account, it will get me more involved with local community life which is what Cape Breton is all about and why I moved here.

So from pov of brain, heart and gut, this is a very positive move. How it will impact on trading activity remains to be seen.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #213 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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March 7

Have marked rectangles on chart when I was away from the computer working on other things having placed orders. Often the results are better this way, as it happened, and although this morning's initial long trades were both losers and I was away from the screen when the market make a big move down, a couple of other trades placed well in advance using my SR approach did well. The one that broke even on the short side around 10.06 would have been a 25 tick winner if I hadn't been at the computer to move the stop to BE+. The winning long trade from low down was placed at the same time the short trade was entered and worked fine, although again I would have exited earlier if had been monitoring the screen since it came within 2 ticks of PT, then came back down to-8 ticks where at the very least I would have had BE+ stop, but then hit default 25 tick target on a subsequent rebound.

In any case: 88% profitable.
But in SIM.

(Note on chart: the SR lines are held over from Friday. Some of them were quite helpful as it happens, but I did not take time to review them today and was ignoring them basically.)




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #214 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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March 9 Tuesday

#1 Loser, #2 a nice PVP to PVP once trend had switched to upside. Both trades in chop zone so neither ideal.

But especially #2 shows the value of keeping track of the PVP's. As of time of this picture being taken, would place buy order near entry of #2. Skew indy has moved out of chop zone and there is a good likelihood that after retrace market will probe higher again at least to yesterday's day-session low a few points higher.

Net on both trades: $90.00



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #215 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Mar 10

A double resulting in net + 24 ticks.

#1 entry was below previous high volume price and several ticks lower than the typical SR BO sell price. But this was in first few minutes of the session and I find previous SR levels from the early am session not so reliable, so used the Volume in DOM and JStats display. It was the wrong approach in this case!

#2 was at recent PVP price and SR-P (from minutes before 8.20 day-session open) meaning there was considerable risk on this first position. However, basis the 30 min chart, the market had gapped up by several points, failed to penetrate a downward trendline though touching it almost to the tick, so a retracement to day-session close around 1123-ish seems likely, the only caveat being that 1125 - around where I was entering, was YH level. So it seemed to me that at the very least there would be a re-test of the DL before a solid push up could get underway given the overall downward bias.

So my initial PT on both was a modest 2 ticks just to get out without having initial Drawdown. However, after waffling around for a while, suddenly very large bids came in, at first for 800 (usual vol in Dome is 30-80 for GC) which stayed on the screen for only 1-2 seconds. Then twenty seconds later or so, at two different prices orders for 400 (i.e. the same computer doing the same thing but splitting the orders). I have observed that fading these large program-generated orders is nearly always the way to go so expanded the PT to make a decent profit and also at a recognisable SR level from the early session even though such levels are not all that important.

Got out with Net +24 ticks minus commissions, and then market indeed went down to day-session close and then started retracing.

So good read on the SR levels, not so good to take the double on the first trade but better to do that then take a loser which then has to be made up when in fact it was 'right' all along. Could have expanded stop on #1 versus adding #2 which would be more conservative, but then not so easy to get out at BE+ if it seems the market is turning to positive. There are always pros and cons to everything.


Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #216 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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March 12

Have marked with ellipse, arrow line and rectangle a very nice skew flip setup that occurred earlier this morning (before I had opened up Ninja). Downmove, then a skew flip at ellipse which corrected back to previous PVP (at rectangle) in picture-perfect fashion. Counter-trend but solid trade.

Then 2 trades in Sim. First a breakout up H2 type CT trade which immediately failed. (I was away from computer when this happened and might have lifted the order.)

#2 is a simple BO sell 2 ticks below current DL in direction of trend with plenty of downside potential looking at the 30 min chart. It was a fairly quick 2.5 pt winner with no heat. In SIM got a much better fill (by 5 ticks) than the order. Net profit of $200 on both trades might have been more like $150 therefore, but still well above Daily Profit Target.

Done.

In terms of CT setups, though, it seems generally true that with a skew flip plus a Brooks-type setup (trendline break, and H2 or L2), that there is a good chance for a return to the mean, and often that is the previous PVP or if that is too far away, the next key SR level that was broken during the recent strong move up or down. Especially when at least one band away from the MA, preferably two or more, the snap-back, or CT, move seems more dependable, and moreover especially if that recent move happened fairly quickly without too much volume in between the previous PVP/consolidation area and the new one, because that way there is not much investment in the price in between and thus is less likely to provide stopping points on the way back up or down to the previous PVP or key SR level. And that previous SR level, if not the PVP, should have had some decent volume there when it was broken, otherwise it might not be all that significant despite how it looks on the chart.


Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #217 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
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Ash,

Congrats on the biz, hope it works out well for you. Sounds like something you enjoy

Mike

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  #218 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Zen-Fire
Trading: TF,S,GC
 
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Yup. Living in Cape Breton is about tuning into local energy, which is not cyber. I suspect I am going to focus on that for a while and then trade after that is established.

One thing I have not mentioned here is that my account is seriously under-capitalized so that in any case the endeavor was a bit of a long shot. Without a viable Plan B it was fraught with too much emotion.

Look, I just used the verb 'was'. Looks like a decision has been made already! But again: I suspect that after the operation is running - or I find I cannot run it properly/viably - then I can trade in a far healthier context.

And THAT said, I am still sort of on the look-out for a nice area to try to nab a couple of thousand off a $100 risk, i.e. let it run for while, if for no other reason than to help purchase equipment for the low-budget fledgling bakery operation! So am not signing out yet. Things are in an in-between state.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #219 (permalink)
 mea109 
france
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
 
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hello hello
Cclsys merci pour votre travail
peut etre une autre idée?
il me semble que le poc et tpo ne se construise pas pareil
si j'ai dis une betise ,desolé
Investor/RT Tour - TPO Indicator

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  #220 (permalink)
 ElChacal 
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
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cclsys Great journal. I downloaded your dValueAsh from the Ninjatrader forum. Do you have the latest version of it? I was backtesting the one from Dean but for some reason I don't think the RtPOC backtests right...
I would basically need the Evolving POC. Please advise.

Thanks!

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