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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #201 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Ninja up and down. Frankly, am strongly considering dumping it. But will not make hasty decision.

Things are working despite endless log errors and so forth.

Had a little idea two days ago and coded it in this morning for fun. Extremely simple: just plot the highs and lows and take off the bars.

Did 3 quick trades this morning, 2 winners, the third a small loser and DONE.

Trade #1: a LL at a level far enough away from the PVP churn zone that it had a decent chance of breaking down to test previous Lows of short term TR. It took a while but once it broke, the modest 1 pt PT was hit easily.
Trade#2: SR level of both 2 recent lows and a previous high at far left of chart. Very good entry as it turned out. Exited on trail to preserve profits then mkt went to the original PT which was SR-R 3 ticks below the previous low.
Trade #3: the SR-R but in fact was a late entry at a point where usually I would have exited on BE+ or already have taken small profits. Since it was a loser and already exceeded DPT, DONE.


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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #202 (permalink)
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Finally Bertrand at NT was asked to help with my problem. Turns out there was nothing wrong with any indicator in particular (they all compiled), but for some (unexplained) reason, Bollinger wouldn't cooperate in one indicator, hence the inability to export.

The solution:
1. Check that the file in question does indeed compile fine. If it doesn't, fix that.
2. Once it compiles, try to export again but this time also export the problematic file, in my case Bollinger by pulling down System Indicator in the drop-down in the Export section. Then it exports, then the error goes away.

Very easy when you know how. Unfortunately, I deleted a slew of decent indicators because I didn't know about this and the first guys on the case didn't think to suggest it or more likely didn't know about it either.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #203 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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cclsys View Post
...

Very easy when you know how. Unfortunately, I deleted a slew of decent indicators because I didn't know about this and the first guys on the case didn't think to suggest it or more likely didn't know about it either.

run restore.

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  #204 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Not only did I run restore, I did a fresh re-install. Still don't know what the problem was but seem to have fixed it by deleting a few indies I had changed recently. The export problem was after quite a few others that were causing problems because of which first I restored, then I re-installed twice the second time making sure absolutely everything was scrubbed from the registry and everywhere on the main HD, then - when that made no difference - I restored again and finally was told how to fix it.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
 
  #205 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Some things came up from an unexpected quarter the past two days. Today I put on trades but in fact was doing other things at the same time. Am not placing in SS record (which is about to be phased out if/when I switch to REAL trading), but for the sake of continuity here I put in a pic:

The losing trade entered around 12.40 had 14 ticks open profit so normally I would have moved stop to BE but was too engrossed in the document I was crafting to follow it. Still, even with that: 11 trades, 2 BE's, 1 loser. Not bad.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
 
  #206 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Feb 22nd. Am in a 'pause' phase. Just reviewing rules and plan and watching. Felt it would be helpful to actually stop recording things for a few days and just focus on the charts.

Attach chart from am. Apart from SIM entry/exit arrows (basically was DONE with Trade#2 at 8.26 am), note how the main SR lines drawn from various DValueArea calculations pointed to upcoming moves, provided halting areas etc. throughout the period shown by the chart.

My main trend rules now are quite simple: I like to see the Collective and the Vwap the same color and then take trades in that direction. I am still conflicted with tick versus 5 min chart, am still following both but am getting better at reading them together and being able to choose when to ignore one when trading the other or using one to give added info to the other but not letting a seeming signal in one be later influenced by seeming conflicts or whatever in the other. Ideally there will be just one and I am leaning towards 5 min because I like having one chart that can work with any instrument; that said, the granularity of info for the DValueArea calculations is often quite different and that is really what I am watching now, to see if it really matters when all is said and done. It is also the case that some patterns come out very clearly and accurately with tick charts which are not so easy to see in the 5 min, but that is also true vice versa. But basically the method is more or less fixed, the approach clear in my head despite this last thing to resolve.

The main challenge for me is to be able to get a read on the market so that I know when it is a sideways and narrow time versus a trending time. In this regard, I have found that the Skew Indicator, which was put together simply as an experiment to see if monitoring the skew (positive or negative) was helpful (I don't think it is for my style of trading), is actually very clear at showing trend versus non-trend times because of the ATR-based inner and outer bands I added in there.

Also, when a skew flips after a move as the Value Area moves down or up to the new zone where price has had sufficient volume to flip the PVP up there, it is often a reliable indication that that move is over, at least for now. So I seem to be using the Skew Indicator to act as a red flag against trading too near the PVP where consolidation action is more likely. Whenever I ignore this experimentally, I find I tend to get more losing trades. When the MA and vwap are lined up and the skew indy is beyond the inner bands (it is almost impossible for the latter to be happening without the former also being lined up), nearly always there is a tradeable move. So I use trend both for directional bias and also as indication that the situation will probably yield a tradeable thrust at a price and time where it is both less likely that I will be stopped out and more likely that a good profit will be made fairly quickly.

I am increasingly clear and confident about the method and now it is just a question of settling down with it mentally and then putting it into action. It feels like I need a few more days to really fix the approach in my mind so that I am not second-guessing my own method, something I have a strong tendency to do.
Chart notes: in the early going I was more looking at the 5 min than the 366 tick. The entries were more 'legal' in the 5 min I think, though not so much in the 366 though on review I can see that I am still not following my own rules sufficiently well to begin the REAL campaign.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'

Last edited by cclsys; February 22nd, 2010 at 10:04 PM.
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  #207 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Wed Feb 23rd:

if anyone reading this senses a drift of late, it is accurate. There is some sort of muddle going on which is mainly psychological but also connected with a couple of external variables on the personal front which suddenly arose recently, one of which is giving me second thoughts about trading altogether. So I have to work through this to determine whether it's a trap or a breath of fresh air. So it always is with obstacles.

On the one hand am getting clearer in head about rules and why to have them. This seems to be deepening every day. On the other hand, am not really following them. Before going back to REAL another rule: at least 3 (maybe 5 is better) days in a row with 100% rule-following in SIM. The results are not important.

Another thought today: it might be better to have larger stops and then just quit for the day with 2 consecutive losses. Either that or it might be better to have much tighter stops. This is the sort of second-guessing that I should have eliminated by now. In fact the rules are to have a medium stop at entry but move it down ASAP based either on a clear pattern at entry or after entry, the logic being to reduce any initial losses making it easier to recover from them both practically and psychologically.

At the same time it is also becoming clear that the main thing missing in the current method is a market overview filter, so to speak: i.e. when is a favorable time to trade and when not. I think the skew indy is going to be helpful with this.

In any case, today if I had held the first trades longer I would have made DPT quickly. I didn't. I also didn't follow the rules well (marked in text on chart). So I have work to do. But already trying to set rules is giving me a way to evaluate what I am doing so already it is helpful. Hopefully this 'muddle' phase is actually helpful and a necessary part of nailing things down better method and behavior-wise.

Early morning routine now involves a more spacious wake-up, cup of tea, meditation session etc. before turning on the computer. Yes, it means replay files don't start so early, but replay files take back seat to reality. Yes, could run the computer in background, but I live in open floor plan situation and don't like the sound of the fan in the background and also as soon as I turn it on I tend to get involved in it. Better to keep it off, at least for me.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
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  #208 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Am having serious computer issues since last night, some sort of virus I think. Unable to log into Ninja until I found out that all that had happened was that computer clock was moved forward to same day/date but 2040. Lost a lot of recent work doing a restore from last week. But computer still not acting right even now. Might have to go back and do fresh OS install. That would be easy if my DVD drive worked properly, which it doesn't since getting a better motherboard. And so it goes.

In short; the morning was a bust since went to bed at 5 am! In the pm did some scalps but really just playing around - though one trade in there was a 2+ pointer using 5 min SR and the Collective/vwap trend condition. That worked well too. Before hitting the price was slow mkt. Then as it broke, it accelerated and was a quick winner with the PT hit in about a minute I think. After that, most recent ones on chart were just that trend was down, market very slow, so selling high and buying a little lower. The first one was in and out in about 10 seconds and the order had been placed long before price got up there using basic SR analysis. I find the Eds bars very helpful with this to provide extra granularity over and above the averaging statistics derived from DValue. The two together work well to create one overall read on Volume-Price.

I am very happy with my basic chart now apart from the tick vs. minute business. I know what each indicator is saying and why it is there. The only exception is the bands. I am not sure if I really need bands, but I like them and even though I don't pay much attention to them, they do a good job of shaping the context of the price action relative to typical daily ranges so I think they are very helpful even if I don't spend any time analyzing them consciously or using them for stops/profit targets, because they provide instant message on visual level. I also don't watch BetterVolume very much, but do pay attention to the climax bars, especially narrow range ones on tick charts where they are especially helpful, but also the low volume ones often reveal when floor traders are mopping up things in the absence of anything important going on, or sometimes it is a feint one way before the market 'makes up its mind' and moves strongly in the opposite direction. I think of them as 'stop-hunting' bars basically. The skew indy has become helpful. It does a remarkable job of combining some sort of SR value area with possible trending or consolidation analysis. I have yet to see a move above/below the inner bands that doesn't produce some sort of follow-through. It's neat and I am beginning to trust it more, although contrary to what I thought when I wrote it, the negative-versus-positive skew is not something I find all that important. The little atr bands around the PVP are far more helpful. This could be configured as a band indy on the main chart, but enough is enough.

Meanwhile experimenting with 18th century Italian bread recipe. Computer world is a nightmare. But the house smells great!
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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
 
  #209 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Still having computer glitches and did a repair this morning. Getting better but Firefox still can't remember to log me in to places automatically and the Options Menu no longer allows me to enable this. Funny stuff going on! Still, did some good SIM work although not really in the zone today with all this monkey business.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
 
  #210 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
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Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received


March 1

Well, I broke two rules today: first, not to trade in REAL until 5 days following the rules
Second I took a trade against the rules in REAL - instant loser!

At first had difficulty pulling the trigger in REAL for the first time in a while. Why I decided to go for it today was that I get the feeling have delayed too long even though much of the delay was due to circumstances beyond my control involving internet connection which, once got, reasonably invited a certain period of testing out various things I couldn't work with on dialup. In any case, I resolved last week not to go into REAL until followed rules in SIM 5 days in a row. So failed that test today completely and decided to stop at that point even with daily loss simply because I am not following the plan. Full stop End of Story!

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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