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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

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  #101 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Cory, thanks. Looks very interesting (as usual). Will have to examine it all later when have time to give it attention it deserves.

My sense of the skew (as Perl uses it) is that it is most helpful in markets which tend not to get into sustained trends all that often. Also, more helpful in certain situations than others, i.e. in afternoon session once a strong upmove is getting exhausted-looking AND there is a negative skew, then chances for a pullback to vwap become increasingly higher, or especially on days when vwap is generally going sideways and there has been a strong move away from the mean, a pullback to the mean is more likely. Things like that. As a stand alone determinant, I think it might be a bit difficult unless one has deep pockets for multi-level scale-ins even against strong trend moves, which is not something I personally can get into right now.

It is good to be aware of though, as winning trade in journal below illustrates.

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  #102 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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ccl, just wondering if you've got the Internet upgrade installed yet?

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  #103 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Jan 4. A bit of a strange morning.
a) have had quite a break from the computer in general and tracking markets in particular - only a few hours in past 10 days tracking, and several days not on computer hardly at all. Much needed.
b) my initial trades were technically illegal. This is because I actually was not yet ready to trade (after late start) and should not have placed the order(s).
c) My first 'official' trade exited at a price that was not hit due to SIM programming so the results on the chart are all off
d) after the non-exit exit I entered again which was a loser but if had still been in original trade none of that would have happened so for first time since starting this journal I 'cheated' a little by assuming that the trade that shouldn't-have-been-stopped-out-but-was later exited at BE+, not shown on the chart, and the next trade taken would not have been taken at all since I was already in the market long.

After that muddle caused by SIM inaccuracy, next trade was a winner. Had fairly large (for me) PT, but at very reasonable level based on SR which is easy to see on the chart (also using the Volume histograms for SR as well as bar-based SR levels remember).

Decided to keep original 'illegal' entries on the SS though probably should have removed them.

Will be more organised tomorrow, although since have important business meeting at noon involving long-term VIVALDI system with professional international marketing consultant from Germany who just happens to be in the process of building a house and becoming my only neighbor on isolated dirt road, possibly will not trade in order to prepare properly.

Trade#1: in retrospect, very ill-advised. Right at PVC and against prevailing trend. It worked with a #2 and if held longer worked well. But very poor R-R and should not have taken #2 and been stopped out for loss. This is an example of mucking around in SIM in manner that I really shouldn't be doing and a function of not being prepared and launching into pushing the entry button too quickly. So 0% on that one even though the combined position ended up netting DPT.

#2: This was an insignificant pattern sell using (for me) unfamiliar 5 minute chart for learning. Stopped out just above PVP which is not a good area for entries or stop-outs except where a retrace to PVP as possible SR after clear move away from it, which was not the case here.
#3. Reversing long, also problematic because close to PVP as mentioned just above. Also a slow lunch-time market which in REAL mode would not be trading especially so close around PVP chop action. This is the trade whose exit was incorrectly printed in SIM, so following BO long trade near top I am not counting in SS record since never would have taken.
#4. A more reasonable trade with more reasonable target. Mkt had failed to make HH, let alone challenge DH which was even higher, had made a LL and the entry price was below the Volume Histogram bell/expansion area, so good possibility of taking out the last RL and going back down toward 1118 level, which is what happened. Default 25 tick PT was hit and filled with net positive balance for the day of $138.00 = 2.8%. This one was 100% in terms of rules.

In sum: not a good morning's exercise. Was not focused after holidays and also have several important projects looming. This is going to be a very busy month. High speed supposedly coming in on Friday. Still, intend to spend 2 hours each morning in SIM until high speed in and trading plan finalised and commence campaign in live trading.




Chart: the orange ellipse on the chart shows where the false exit happened and then the not-counted BO up entry. The next short trade (the last trade today) was valid and counted. Also, I have several different MP-type indies up to compare how they are plotting the PVP's, Value areas etc. so a little too busy. But only way to track them really is to have them up together and get a feel for which ones to favor at some point.

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  #104 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Hopefully this week Mike. Fingers are crossed! After 7 months the power to the tower has been connected. Local politics....

Mea: attaching a full zip export so you can see Cory's rolling pivots which is partially based on an old FibBands indicator version and the zip file will include all other indicators referenced by Cory's. Remember that when using the VWAP in this indicator it starts at midnight; no way to change it (yet).

If it doesn't work right, let me know; might be because of changes made after the version Cory is using. It's working fine on my computer so hopefully this export will also work fine on yours.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: zip RollingPivotsCory.zip (60.2 KB, 41 views)
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  #105 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Cory, took a longer look after loading your chart template. Will take a while to get clear on which line is which but the way you are plotting things with hashes etc. it looks like a good dynamic SR indicator set.

It is interesting how changing things from a line to a hash or square makes the same thing feel so different. Horizontal lines 'work' for me as SR prices whereas smoothed MA-types don't even though really there is no difference between them at all of course.

A related indicator (free) that often gives uncannily accurate calls in the Hourly Pivots (by Roonius I think). I don't plot them to reduce indy input but they are quite good.

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  #106 (permalink)
 mea109 
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thanls Cclsys
I try during the day and come back to tell you if it does not work
thank you all very much for your efforts

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  #107 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Jan 5th. Another late night but woke up at reasonable time and was ready for day-session open. Just trading a basic 233 chart, spent only 5 mins reviewing levels from yesterday and placing a magenta SR line, then took trades based on SR/PVP etc. 3 trades, 3 winners.

#1: A basic SR BO down with added twist that happened just after new PVP formed right at top of Volume Area C formation, earlier dynPVP level and a new SR. So if this broke, was likely to go down. It did. I exited early being conservative in order to preserve DPT after about +10 possible; as soon as stop exit hit, mkt went down to PT which was 2 ticks above previous PVP from around 7 am which is when I have my charts start calculating vwap and dValue now (i.e. give it an hour before the open). This is also when volume usually starts to pick up in the am. I have placed an orange dot at the PT. Pity exited early, but that's one of the problems when trading single lots. Encouraging that PT level proved an accurate read.

#2: aggressive (and illegal/optional) CT signal based on mkt hesitating at previous SR-P level (not drawn - double bottom bars around 6.24 to left of gold entry arrow). Moved stop to BE+ quickly to protect DPT. Almost filled on lowered +5 tick PT before being stopped out.

#3: this one fully legal, i.e. if not taking this, am not trading. Skew had just turned negative (vwap crossing under PVP); chrystal clear magnet/target at the low of those two bars about 6 ticks below entry price, but also additional magnet/PT level at the magenta SR line. I didn't have time to adjust the PT once the entry filled and so got out late after price already bounced from RL 1 tick above my original target. Second time today mkt went down to an SR level to the tick. 30 second winner. DONE.

In terms of rules: the #2 was optional and I put it on mainly to gather experience/training/learning. Should probably keep out of SS but I put it in without thinking. #3 was a definite trade and since I am now almost decided at changing DPT to 2% from 1% ($100 from $50) put it on. This way I could see how it felt (albeit in SIM) to have DPT evaporate when put on additional trade. In this case it worked. But that's the dilemma there am still working on in terms of trading plan and this is something that is very hard to determine when using SIM. That said, because unable to program these simple setups in Ninja strategy, cannot get good stats, albeit hopefully this SS will soon help.

The most interesting cell on my SS in the upper stats section is the avg tick P/L per trade: 3.4. With 99 trades, adding 1 tick to that average would be additional 20% return in one month. So am also leaning to moving BE+ stop from +1 to +2 in order to get an extra tick on BE trades; yes, it raises probability that will get stopped out of what turns out to be larger winner; but also it helps raise the return-per-trade assuming that most of the time it gets an extra tick and the BE+ would have been hit anyway. Again, no way to test this definitively.





Note on chart: the red dash line is the previous session ending PVP. The white dash is the dynamic PVP. The magenta horizontal dotted line is yesterday PM Resistance (which has now held after multiple tests (13!) to the tick from 8.45 to 9.36 and just was broken as I typed this paragraph. That would be another SR sell for sure with stop tightening as soon as a decent thrust down).

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  #108 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Am getting clearer on certain aspects of my 'rules'; I do need to tighten them, but at same time am a discretionary type; also it is in my character to go against any rules, including my own!

From Trading Plan Notes:

Bull:
Vwap rising price above vwap;


Young bull: trend up, skew down Full bull : trend up, skew up;
Old bull: trend up, skew down;
Renewed bull: trend up, skew down but price crossed back up above PVC and top of a C formation in Volume Area histo.

Countertrend trade: first need clear break of trend line after strong move;
Then Brooks 2 trigger type, i.e. don’t take first CT signal
Ideally, also need flip in PVP to around current levels so as to have new skew in line with this CT entry.


Otherwise, no CT entries.

....

There might be additional rules in terms of clearly non-trending markets but basically they will all involve the same principle: buy low and sell high around identifiable SR levels often with ST patterns/narrow bars around these levels providing relatively low risk entries.

.......

I am aware that the key aspect of a trading plan is not the particular entry exit rules but the overall strategy and approach which is married to the goals and character of the trader waging his/her trading campaign. However, for me it does center on having a method which I know fits my style and way of seeing things - which this one now does - so that I have the confidence to weather difficult days without being tempted to redesign the whole thing.

In general I will work to take with trend trades, often favoring pullbacks to SR-P's with pattern entries, and clear SR breakouts during good-moving markets. The PVP is a new tool that is very handy for identifying key SR levels including entry and exit zones. I suspect I will stick with tick charts for now although I have begun to appreciate certain aspects of time bars that I had overlooked for a while and might experiment more with 3 min bars. But basically the method is 'in', so now I can do a better job of putting together a complete plan including max daily DD, weekly PT, MM rules, more precise rules on exit/trailing protocols to provide benchmarks and reduce overly hasty stop-tightening etc. Hopefully the stats in the SS will help provide precision and confidence in crafting these rules.

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  #109 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Don't have time for much commentary since need to prepare for a meeting in 1.5 hours. But look at this price action in terms of the recent TR's relationship with old and dynamic PVP, and the curves in the Value Histogram and the day-session vwap. Clear areas. Then the break to new LL's still unfolding as chart pic snapped.

I really do like SR-based charting and trading, don't I!?



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  #110 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Cory: am I right that your Rolling Pivots is creating a Rolling Vwap re-calculating every hour? I have a hard time reading others codes and also am a bit pressed right now making it even harder to drill down and try to understand what you have done.

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  #111 (permalink)
 steve2222 
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cclsys View Post
Yesterday re-tooled my RangeBarHighLow indicator to work properly with Renkos since I visited the MedianRenko thread and decided to take another look at them. I like Japanese things usually - although for some reason I still prefer OHLC to candles. Maybe I should try those hollow candles but I don't think I have them or have seen a download for them anywhere.

In any case, the RBHL works great with Renkos. The main reason I didn't ever look at them was not knowing where the highs/lows were going to be, but now that is fixed. Even the default Renkos are quite workable with this plotting feature. (attached uses Median Renkos). Next I would like to get it to work with PF but that will be harder.

Then I coded 'Ash rat' inspired by the TRO Rat thread which was closed but which contains some interesting information along with far too much fluff. Frankly, I got more from his attitude and use of statistics than any sense of clear method, though if I understand aright he basically uses average daily ranges to calculate when a possible low or high is in (and he only buys lows I think), and then after a bounce of X% of that daily range from the probable Daily Low, he buys any time there is a pullback and then a higher high, i.e. he buys up bars. Something like that. It makes a lot of sense and jives with several things I have been mulling over of late, principally sticking with one direction and not changing sides too often. If the longer term trend is up (or whatever criteria you use, say it's under Band 2 in a Fib Band type indicator), you buy and all you do is buy.

But in working with the Renkos and these ideas last night and developing the AshRat indicator which knows what the high or close of a Renko is going to be, it occurred to me that Range Bars, and especially Renkos, are like bars that visually display an ATM strategy, so working with them to train with MM I think could be extremely helpful. In fact, along with generally goofing off the next few days and hanging out with friends and drinking too much homebrew (I live in rural area remember!) I would like to build the current 'AshRat' into a money-management training indicator working on Range or Renkos during market replay or live Sim. I tried to do this with RatioSysBand indicator (in another thread somewhere) but the coding went above my paygrade.

In any case, here are two pictures. One shows at TRO (rat) indicator that basically buys HH bars once a low has been put in using something that is close to a 5 bar Donchian approach, or sells a LL once a high is in. It's not based on the Daily Range approach, just swing after swing.

I made the mistake of loading this with Renkos, which it cannot see well, and also did not realise that the 'rules' assumed by the indicator are to buy the buy trigger only when the close is above it, not as soon as it is hit. I think this is not the method, but it is how the indicator thinks, so working with Renkos in a rather fast - and unusually choppy - gold market this morning with a new indicator that I didn't understand was difficult. After an hour or so I was down $700. Then I switched to a Range Bar chart and understood its logic better and managed to get nearly all of it back, and then starting going under again as I was getting very tired. It's a fast-moving approach with 5-range bars - at least it was today.

At the same time, I was using my own indicator on a parallel 5 range chart (also attached) so that was a bit confusing. But I knew that would happen and after two hours am thoroughly familiar with both approaches and can work on them further in a more responsible fashion.

There was something very relaxing and simple about having such incredibly simple rules. No volume. No SR. Just simple price bars, the indicators just showing basic information about the bars.

Comparing Renkos and Range bars, clearly Renkos hold a trend longer. However, they can get very badly chopped. This is perhaps choosing bars that are too narrow for the market. But I personally need to work with about $100 stops for money management reasons. I think an account should be able to trade 1% risk per $10,000 = $100.00. So a 5-bar Renko has an 11tick $115.00 stop already, and a 5 range bar has a 7 tick $75.00 stop so that is what I prefer to research, at least for now. Using much larger ranges to determine trend makes perfect sense, but not for this sort of entry and exit money management training.

Because you know the range of the bars, you know your stop before the trade is entered and have a PT as well based on whatever RR ratio you want and then get a sense of what works and what doesn't. Today I ended up with a 7 tick stop (the range bar plus one tick above and below), a 7 tick PT on #1 and a 15 tick PT on #2 which was only hit once I think. But it was a very choppy time I tried this out in.

(I intended to go over to my 'real' charts and have a proper session for the journal but a) I was tired from the intense Renko and Range workout on 2 charts at once and b) the markets are just floor traders picking up money from saps so they can go out and buy emeralds for their girlfriends before bringing home a larger turkey to the wife and kids. At least that's what it looked like half an hour ago. Maybe it's hit 1200 in Gold whilst I am typing!

I know my posts tend to be too long. (The English schoolboy in me!) Sorry. (there I go again!)

But when I have done more work on the indicator, I shall share it and also show some pictures with signals.

I can't imagine trading a Range chart without the RBHL indicator, and it is VERY helpful with Renkos. Works with Range, Alt-Range, Renkos, SbS Renkos, Median Renkos. Very handy. 2.5 k!

Pictures: the one with the TRO indicator: the idea is buy when it crosses the High with the cream-colored hash, and sell when it crosses the low with the purple hash. Sell are drawn only after a buy signal has been triggered and confirmed with a close above them and also some sort of support-resistance criteria has been met in that there is new resistance. Once there is new resistance, the sell hash is active and any time there is a LL you sell. This is better in theory than practice because the hash marks don't change without close confirmation and in fact the method is to buy the HH's at the high and sell the LL's at the low as soon as you know which way you are going. But anyway. There is some merit to this approach and I intend to take a closer look at it over the next week or so especially in regards to developing a money-management training indicator for use with Range and Renko bars in particular. I think quite a few people will find it of interest.

The Ash Rat picture has a simpler indicator though in this choppy market it doesn't look appealing. When there are trends it is nice. Basically there are always two plots based on where the high or low will be. As soon as a close has formed and it's an up bar, the buy plot goes one tick above the high and the sell/stop plot goes to one tick below where the max low will be. Now with Renkos this works fine, but with range bars it doesn't keep track of the possible highs and lows intrabar like the RBHL indy does, but since I have it running, no problem. In any case, it is VERY simple when the chart is not all squashed up to show on the thread, and makes for very straightforward no-brainer type entries and exits. The art is choosing when to be on the buy side for a while and when to be on the sell side versus taking every single little swing every time which simply won't work. But as a training indicator it is simple, good, effective.

Hi CCLSYS,

Sorry could not find your original post for the Range Bar High Low indicator. I downloaded it several weeks ago and find it invaluable.

One of the setup options is Show Price Markers - True/False. But when set to True it does not display the price for the possible hi/lo of the range.

Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'.

Thanks,

Steve

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  #112 (permalink)
 cory 
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cclsys View Post
Cory: am I right that your Rolling Pivots is creating a Rolling Vwap re-calculating every hour? I have a hard time reading others codes and also am a bit pressed right now making it even harder to drill down and try to understand what you have done.

it doesn't re-calculate Vmap, it takes a snap shot of a regular Vmap every 60m or 30m and use that value to plot the line for the rest of the period.

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  #113 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Jan 5 - afternoon.

Attaching chart with some commentary for those who might be interested in the skew. Also part of my own work in firming up 'trend' versus 'countertrend'.

Definition of positive skew:
vwap is above current PVP.
Definition of trend:
price is above rising vwap/below falling vwap.

So you can have a bull trend with a positive or negative skew.

In attached chart show where the skew changed to positive despite bear trend (around 8.53). Although it took until 10.00 ish for trend to change to bullish, and although there was one more thrust downwards, in fact there was no real trend move down, indeed a return to close to previous PVP area higher up around 1125.

Later on, because it was getting towards end of main day-session action, decided to play with buying the positive skew in a bear trend in anticipation of return to the mean. Had one stop-out but other entries worked fine.

I think the combination of trend and volume-based skew is a very intelligent and powerful one to be aware of and am very grateful to all the non-commercial contributors to NT forum and futures.io (formerly BMT) who have worked to make these sort of price levels visible to us. I really feel I have a good sense of what is going on. If I am 'wrong', that is information I am getting from the market which usually gives excellent new signal. Ability to anticipate next likely move to next likely level has been improving steadily. Am really enjoying reading the chart and price action and feeling very good about the work I have done in this regard the past 2-3 months, which essentially has synthesised a decade or two of sporadic experience into something my own and which I now understand. The volume indicators were a missing piece of the puzzle. The dynamic PVP allowed previously known but unable to review historically information to fall into place.

Meeting with consultant went very well. Am amazed someone with knowledge of the European financial sector just happens to have moved next door (indeed the only other person living on my dirt road year round). Not only knows the sector, but has been hired by several large fund managers to help streamline their organisation/operations because that is what he does. So he knows the owners/chiefs of these groups and they trust his judgment.

But Cape Breton is like that. Very strong local energy which is why I moved here. It's sort of ultra-modern and ultra-old-fashioned at the same time.

So a good day!

PS. Note on chart: on the far right text says" SR sell despite negative skew." Should have said: 'despite positive skew'.

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  #114 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Steve2222:

1. Embarrassing to read that ridiculously long post. But as have said elsewhere, despite being middle-aged am still an English schoolboy at heart when I hit the keyboard. Nothing to be done about it!
2. Re your query: "Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'."

Can't be done because these were formulated as text indicators for reasons to do with Ninja scripting (getting them to go off the chart as the bars change). So even though that option exists, it doesn't do anything. Now if you can find a way to plot it and have the previous plot disappear (I don't think you can!) then you can have the price value show in the axis.

I am not using Range Bars any more (at least right now) but I agree with you: it's invaluable! The default one that prints out 'range remaining: 3 ticks' is okay, but I much prefer seeing the actual price level visually both above and below the current High/Low of the forming bars.

There are a couple of other versions out, including one here at futures.io (formerly BMT), and maybe they can display the price in the axis the way you want.

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  #115 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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cory View Post
it doesn't re-calculate Vmap, it takes a snap shot of a regular Vmap every 60m or 30m and use that value to plot the line for the rest of the period.

Yeah, I suspected that was it.

I am hoping someone will program in a rolling vwap. It exists on other platforms. I would really like a :

rolling 8 hour vwap + value areas + volume-at-price histogram. Then it can be used on all charts in all timeframes and the only thing you have to change is the rolling duration, i.e. 1 hour, 8 hour, 24 hours, 72 hours etc. But we don't have it.

Right now I am frustrated that you cannot have an indicator that can start the vwap and the PVP's etc. at the same time from which to build a decent skew indicator. But in the end it doesn't really matter. Can put them up separately and since I am a scalper can work fine with what I have already. But that said: the dynamic PVP is really a great leap forward for some reason.

I really like what you have done there with your rolling pivots although personally I would prefer a rolling calculation more in line with what I sketched above, i.e. it keeps rolling bar by bar. I don't have time to really take a good, long look at your one, but do intend to next month when things start opening up again time-wise.

I was delighted to see someone taking the FibBand indicator and turning it into something different to explore their own ideas. That is the sort of thing that can happen on a good forum. Yes, it's confusing in terms of which version works with what etc. and maybe I even ruined my own FibBand indicator importing your older version-based one etc. but I don't care. Pooling ideas and work is very enjoyable, healthy. Feels good. Am honoured that you contributed this to my journal thread. Have a lot of respect for your work. Thanks.

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 steve2222 
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cclsys View Post
Steve2222:

1. Embarrassing to read that ridiculously long post. But as have said elsewhere, despite being middle-aged am still an English schoolboy at heart when I hit the keyboard. Nothing to be done about it!
2. Re your query: "Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'."

Can't be done because these were formulated as text indicators for reasons to do with Ninja scripting (getting them to go off the chart as the bars change). So even though that option exists, it doesn't do anything. Now if you can find a way to plot it and have the previous plot disappear (I don't think you can!) then you can have the price value show in the axis.

I am not using Range Bars any more (at least right now) but I agree with you: it's invaluable! The default one that prints out 'range remaining: 3 ticks' is okay, but I much prefer seeing the actual price level visually both above and below the current High/Low of the forming bars.

There are a couple of other versions out, including one here at futures.io (formerly BMT), and maybe they can display the price in the axis the way you want.

Thanks CCLSYS,

No problem re the long posts - I find them informative. Understand what you are saying re printing in the axis, what about right next to the bar being formed ie in the chart body.

I did see the other indicator at NT (I now see it is on here as well) but it is producing incorrect results on at least RangeAlt charts.

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 cclsys 
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Well, all you have to do then is find a way to print out the price value in text form versus a -- which is what I have. Try putting in the variable 'posshigh' instead of the - and see what happens. Might have to change the font size etc. Also don't put it in " " because that makes it a text thingy. I am not sure how to do this exactly but it definitely can be done and also you could have it displaced by 10-20 points to show towards the right of the chart.

If I find the time tonight will see if I can do it. But please understand: am not a good programmer. RBHL was written with generous help by others on NT forum. I just supplied the request; didn't do the heavy lifting!

Just took a quick look: do not know how to get a value Low[0]+ (Bars.Period.Value*TickSize) into text. But there is no question it can be done. Perhaps start a thread in Programmers area to see if some kind soul will solve this for you/us. Also NT forum will work too, then post it here.

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 cclsys 
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Jan 6

Early am complicated by my having impulsively got into a fictional large account scale trade on the short side based on early negative skew. It looked like a quick upside spike after 8.30 report was going to head back down so I entered and then decided to ride it out to test this approach. Not for my own use right now but in general. It took an hour, was down $20,000 at some point with 104 contracts in play, and exited finally with $5,000 profit. At first distracted me from my 'official' work, then I realised I could trade my own small stuff at same time even though the arrows on the chart are all wrong. Since I was short, if I initiated a single contract buy, that was recorded as an exit of current scale-out short. I have marked my 'official' trades with text: 1,2,3 etc.

Basically I did a very good job of picking entries, trailing stops, picking viable targets. There were a couple of situations where I could have made more, no situations where I took a stop too early and am pleased with ability this morning to choose long or short side based on combination of skew and SR although because of initial scale trade did not take any trades in this journal model until well after I could/should have. Still, once I got going, it was a very good 30 mins with 5 winners and one 2-tick loser playing both long and short.

Trades (marked in text on chart):

#1: as with all trades before the narrow ellipse which shows where the 104 contract scale position exited finally, the arrows are reversed. It looks like a sell entry with a buy exit but in fact first it bought at beginning of bar and then sold at the top.

The thick yellow dash line is YH. It was retested on a pullback and held and had also worked as minor Resistance shortly before in the day-session so was 'in play' as an SR level. So took simple H1 buy entry with target at the SR-P level just above, hit to the tick. Fast winner.

#2 was the same again really, but it didn't move as I expected and took a 2 tick loss.

#3 (where again the yellow entry arrow is painted like an exit arrow) was a conservative or bold trade depending how you look at it: conservative in the sense that waited for clear HH with expectation of test of DH after, bold in sense that was exposed to larger stop, albeit as with most trades could move stop up to BE+ fairly quickly, and with this one it happened. Within about 30 secs was at BE+ if I remember correctly. Took modest PT after hesitation below the DH. If held, could have made more.

#4: first CT trend (arrow painted correctly since short). Why go CT here? Pattern-wise it is a very nicely formed L2. But also it is with negative skew based on relation between rising vwap and white PVP line. This had been in effect for a while, but here we had a situation where mkt had for first time failed to make HH (though this is arguable) but also the recent low was nowhere SR-wise so a second leg down looked highly likely. This too is arguable since it went down to previous long entry BO up price to the tick, so it was somewhere SR-wise. I just didn't feel that it had made a convincing low yet. Anyway it worked. Could have made more, but happy to take quick profits just above the new PVP.

#5: Simple pattern entry after narrow range Climax bar at the SR level with stop just below. Initial target was the SR-P level (at #4 entry price) which would have worked but bailed out early on hesitation to protect profits. Should have stayed in with BE+ stop. This was the only action that was questionable today imo.

#6 Short at the same SR-P price after mkt failed to go higher. Had tight 4 tick stop and initial tgt just at the point in the VolumePrice histo where there was support. Instant winner.

On all six trades the MAE was 3 ticks. It doesn't get better than that for my style of trading.

Net return: $393.60 = 7.9% in 30 minutes. 5 winners 1 2 tick loser. I'd say that was a good session. But again: it's in SIM so...

P/L since 11/20: $3445 = 68.9% of $5000 starting balance. Currently batting at 70% which is good. Avg P/L per trade 3.4 ticks.

I find that fascinating: avg profit 3.4 ticks = 68% in 6 weeks or so. This is why I am getting more aggressive at tightening stops. When I started the journal here I was more into loosening the stops and going for larger PT's. Now I am more into taking money when I can get it quickly and at same time tightening stops quickly to avoid having to make back 2-3 day's profits on a bad day. That is still going to happen, but I am hoping less often once again in REAL trading.






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 cclsys 
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Jan 7.

Slightly late start but health is a little poorly past month or so and I am letting myself sleep until I awake. Last night slept 10 hours so must have needed it.

Looks like my Christmas prediction of a rally to the 1143 level either already happened - though 3 pts shy of that - or will turn out correct. In any case, there is a real battle under way which involves US$ of course.

Opened charts around 9.30 and there was a reasonably strong bull move underway after a sell-off in the early am so took a bullish stance.

Had order to buy at SR level at 1133.2 which was touched but not filled, meanwhile a pattern BO order above at 1134 which was hit. 3 ticks heat then up to the PT 2 ticks below old PVP (orange dot on chart) which also was touched not filled (TNF in SS notes), exited at trailing stop to ensure decent profits for the day, stop hit to the tick, then went up to PVP+1, so if had kept stop lower would have made 3% PT. Instead made 2% less commissions ($95.00). DONE.

Note: as soon as went up to PT zone, and after attached pic was snapped, mkt retraced down to 1130 level a few ticks above the dynamic PVP (white hash hard to see) down at bottom of chart. Mkt got ahead of itself.

Rules: 100%.





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 cclsys 
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Jan 8 Another quick DONE day. After 8.30 report, market took off upwards (decline in payrolls).

#1: SR-P level trade with PT at next SRP up, stop to BE++ quickly to prevent early losses after 7 ticks heat, BE++ stop hit, then went straight up to PT and then to the SR + 1 tick before pulling back.
+2.

#2: However, after BE hit, got a narrow climax bar and put order to buy above there this time with PT at DPT + a little which was hit and filled within 10 secs of entry. I think my PT was lower, actually, but it took time for the order to be entered. (I have my SIM emulating time it takes in REAL trading). I think my actual PT was +5 to make DPT but got:
+7.

Net P/L for day: $81.2 = 1.6%. DONE.

Kept putting on some trades until 9.15 for practice and did quite well: up $700 with a couple of double entries but never more than $300 heat combined and a runner which got $500, then a couple of losers.

Fast market condition. Gold 'wants' to go back up towards $1200 but many others 'want' it to stay low. So a busy market these days even though I suspect much of the action is in CDS's and suchlike for which there are no available exchanges/data/information.

I continue to find the information from the dynamic PVP extremely helpful at focusing attention on key SR level at any given time; this provide the core context around which bar-based SR's and SR-P's are evaluated and am getting a much better feel for what a market is doing SR-wise. Not using any cycle or average-type indicators except for Vwap which is actually a straight statistic showing the level at which an equal number of trades have been above/below it. The other indies on the chart show volume (BetterVolume2 with some additions), speed (RPM) and time per bar (since I have tick charts). I rarely look at them although the speed alert keeps me aware of acceleration which doesn't show on the charts, although of course you can see the bars forming quickly during live trading.

That said, here's a common-sense observation about speed: the way I measure it is in Range in ticks per minute. So if a market is ticking away furiously within a one tick range - which does happen - that does not count as speed in terms of nr. of ticks per second/minute. What matters is the range. So when the RPM speed indicator shows acceleration, it means that the range is expanding rapidly which means it is far more likely that stops and PT's will be hit quickly. If you are 'right', then you have better chance of getting in and out rapidly when putting on scalp trade.

Also (and this is how I first configured scalp arrows with the RPM which I never have displayed to reduce clutter), AFTER the speed burst is over, often the floor traders correct the recent move to flush out recent weak entrants (scalpers, day traders etc.), so there are often pretty reliable CT bounces as soon as the speed condition ends and/or mkt stops at recognisable SR level. This is good for quick CT scalp (which I never do for many reasons, not least of which is that it seems to take between 5-10 seconds for orders to be processed) but also for a pullback re-entry. Floor boys take it back up to clean out the stops, often to an SR-P level which is also often when the speed condition began. Indeed, I look for SR-P's which began a speed level. They are often very good pullback zones for re-entry into trend.

That said, however, most of the time the speed condition indicates a climax, which is also why I put the scalp arrows in the opposite direction of the current speed-move. There is a climax of buyers/sellers jumping on board or being stopped out, then market pauses or reverses quickly. So this little RPM indicator is helpful in terms of helping to 'tell the story', or the rhythm, of what is going on.





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 cclsys 
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Jan 11. Late start. Again just one quick trade.

On opening up and having a chart in the Default workspace from late last night with Bands overlaid on VolumeProfile setup, saw hesitation at old SR and LowerBand3 (using adaptive 'lookback' bands which adjust based on recent Donchian ranges) and jumped in with 4 tick stop and 10 tick PT. Bailed out well above DPT ( +8 ticks = $75.00 = 1.5% ) as soon as hesitation in evidence. One minute trade. DONE.

Rules: entry was questionable. But overnight had used these bands and had 10 winners in a row so was feeling confident with them. ( Well, that is not quite accurate: I didn't really use the bands, per se, except around the Band3 levels which seem to do a good job of containing price action and therefore indicate that going against the current move might be a good idea. Most of the trades were typical SR-P's etc. albeit I did put on a few doubles if the first one took heat. It was a range-bound mkt so not hard to trade as long as didn't catch a big loser. And all in SIM so somewhat meaningless. )

The attached 1 min chart does not show that there were two tests at RL before my entry which was after the second test and on a pullback with only 0-1 tick heat, so felt fine about taking a CT trade with 4 tick stop since a good chance would be able to move to BE even if initial PT not hit.





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 cclsys 
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Here is a good example of POC/PVP power. Had this buy order in from a while back, even before the swing low and bounce before this one. Nailed a good entry whilst I was typing the above. Tight trail stop was hit and then mkt continued up to SR-P PT level. My initial PT was 1155.4 and RH was 1155.5.

This dynamic PVP is, I think, the extra 'edge' in terms of a volume-based indicator that I was looking for for three months. Already I cannot imagine a chart without it and if I had to have only 1 indicator, that would be it. I could work even without price bars I think, although obviously they are very helpful!

In this case, this is the PVP from the previous session ( why it is a red dash line versus white dash line which is current dynamic PVP) which I have configured to begin and end around 6.00 am, i.e. the transition from overnight Asian-led positions to North American-led positions.



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 cclsys 
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I feel like a huge fool. Just discovered something by accident: if you have dialup connection and use minute vs. tick charts there is no problem following just about any market. I always use tick charts. In Default workspace had minute charts up for some reason. This afternoon after meeting threw up ES just to see how much lag there would be since tomorrow will supposedly get highspeed and wanted to see the difference. I don't intend to trade ES but still, that's the BIG one volume-wise.

Well, waddya know: had no problem keeping up. Had 10 second lag for about 10 seconds around 4pm EST but apart from that was there tick for tick on time. Not only that, had a GC DOM in the background at same time which I didn't notice. And it was still keeping up.

This means that without any doubt running Tick Charts greatly stresses NT in some fashion since usually I get up to 3-5 minute lag on ES after running it for more than 10 mins because bandwidth just cannot keep up. In all my emails etc. with NT at the beginning, none of them ever mentioned this possibility and all kept thinking it was my connection and/or system resources etc.

I feel like a complete fool because for some reason I never tried following ZB/ES etc. with minute charts when I started having connection/speed issues a few months ago. I doubt anyone else on this board is using dialup, but if you are and like the 'big' markets: use minute charts!

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 cclsys 
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Jan 12

Up early after good sleep. Pre-market slow but steady so nibbled.

#1. Nice setup with retrace to SR-P in downtrend with PT just above PVP. Agg trail stop hit for +2 then PT hit. Feel fine about agg trailx since intention is to reduce/eliminate initial DD in early going.

#2. Same again after another bounce up but with pattern entry. This one had poor R-R but the PT was modest and the closer you get to the PVP on a with trend trade as this was, the stronger its 'magnetic' pull. RL was 2 ticks beyond PVP+1 tgt (i.e. PVP-1) and then bounced again.

(Anything after the white vertical line is not counted in official results.)

Rules: with exception of poor R-R on #2, everything fine. But the R-R rule really is more of a general guideline than a rule, except that when recovering it becomes a hard rule in that the PT's are larger, R-R 1.5 or better and PT's are not lowered, only trailx raised after above BE level.

Method Comment: I am increasingly regarding the PVP's as magnets. In some situations they are magnets that attract price to them and in others they act as repellants in that price tends to bounce away from them and go off to find new levels. Small thought, but the dynamic PVP's have instantly become a core SR referent so am paying more attention to what happens around them than any other referent on chart. Previous day PVP's are often important as well, and of course previous day Highs, Lows etc.

Net P/L $71.69 = 1.4%
MAE 4; MFE 7;
Total Net P/L since 11/20/2009: $3769 = 75%.
% profitable: 71%, which is improving.
Avg P/L per trade: 3.4 ticks net which is also improving even though I am shortening the targets of late to be DONE quickly.

I suppose the ideal number there would be 6 meaning that the average P/L per trade = the DPT but that would mean am taking many trades > DPT (which is the plan). I am not sure I want to make it a goal to reach that level since I agree with BM here and others that the best goals to set are ones that involve things you can control such as maintaining certain types of rules and behaviors. But clearly my results have improved the past few weeks and the stats are slowly but steadily showing that.


Chart: have bands drawn from previous day PVP. Not very helpful today perhaps, although they show that the day-session lurched downwards shortly after 6 am (so maybe I have picked a good starting time?). An idea I got from reading Buddha's thread to have them up this way during first hour or two after my session begins which is 6.00 am (for now). It seems to work in that by 8.20 you have a new day situation but it also has a little history and thus context so any PVP's, bands, MA's etc. have had a little time to get established before the official open at 8.20.

Also, experimenting with minute charts today even though about to have highspeed (supposedly) connected. Trying Perl's preferred 2-minute. I have noticed with Fib studies that usually the 50% and *2 are the best, i.e. 1/2 or *2, i.e. 2 is a nice number. So why not 2 minute? 1 minute seems a bit too short, 3 minutes is fine but sometimes slow especially around high volume turning points (which tick charts 'draw out' more effectively than time charts).

10.22: highspeed connection apptmnt cancelled for third time. They want you available all day long but only cancel halfway through the day of the apptmnt. Trip to purchase old Mercedes 4 hours away delayed for second time in a week because of these shenanigans! Getting one of the last hand-built Mercedes before they went into modern on-demand / outsourced parts mode in the late 80's early 90's. It's a monster of a car, far too big for my taste, but it has no rust (big deal around here) and the being hand-made thing really appeals. Cost $75,000 new in 1988. Will not reveal my purchase price but suffice to say: way under dinner for two at Maxim's in Paris.

Hopefully it will turn out to be a good deal even if I do feel a bit like a banker-cum-pimp - cum pretentious twat driving down pot-holed country roads in a vehicle that was the preferred for ambassadors and CEO's twenty years ago in a region that has been 'enjoying' steady population decline and a depression economy for over twenty years!

Upside: if they burgle my house because of the fancy car parked outside, at least I can move into the trunk which is large enough to set up an office apparently. Back seat is about the size of a double bed - or so someone on a forum said (no doubt tongue in cheek)!

Factoid: this old V8 power-quasi-limo gets 27 mpg on the highway (as long as you are not going much above 100 mph of course, which this thing was built to cruise at nice 'n easy).

Upside: if I slide off the road, it's the trees which will give way, not my bumpers.
Downside: might not be able to park it anywhere downtown!
Downside2: all the pimps and bankers will be after stealing it, and if I do have the office in the trunk then I'll be without home or car or office and find it hard to stick to my trading plan!







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 cory 
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check out those lines;

youtube com/user/eminitradingschool

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 cclsys 
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Cory will do if/when get highspeed today after 3 previous apptnmt cancellations.

Jan 13 am:

Up early after good sleep. For me it works best to have substantial dinner about 2 hours before retiring, it seems. Have not been eating well past three months and it is wearing me down so going to have to change that.

Started chart volume indies at 7 am this morning because that's when volume kicked in. Placed bands around previous day PVP. So shortly after opening up chart around 7.20 this configuration led to the perception that although a strong bull bounce in effect with potential to go back up towards 1150 level (we are in Daily TR between 1080 and 1150 although daily also looks like could be making a swing back up to 1200 level if 1150ish broken to upside). BUT: seeing some strong Selling Pressure coming into DOM (3-1 ratio for sellers to buyers) and seeing nice distance between current UpperBand3 level and Dynamic PVP, decided to play short side. Also a Daily Pivot level which I threw up yesterday since these work with time bar charts and not tick charts. I didn't use it consciously, but no doubt it had sub-conscious effect in terms of making that Band#3 seem more important. I don't usually use bands for trading, but am experimenting with them a bit more in first hour or so, which is also when I do 90% of my trading. Again, bands are based on previous day closing PVP.

Trade #1 was a quickie that doesn't count because in DOM I entered a 'Play' trade. It was what I call a 'Vol' trade in that there was pretty high volume at one price more than 5* volume in all other price fields. It's not a very reliable trade but works about 1 in 3 times at key areas. This was not a key area. It didn't work.

Trade #2 Then switched to 'Official' which means all trades are entered into SS. Basically did the same trade again but this time, as notes in SS explain and which the 2 minute bars do not show, there was far more confirmation, albeit not really from DOM volume. Just a retest-fail of the high, a probe down, then I entered on retrace with stop 2 ticks above RH for -4 ticks risk.

Target at first SR-R which happened to be a tick or two above rising vwap in short term bull move. If vwap falling in bear market might have gone for larger tgt. In any case, it worked fine. 1 tick heat, 15 ticks profit. Took a couple of minutes. DONE.

Trade #3 back in 'Play' mode so not in spreadsheet. The #2 trade took profits at SR-Retrace level, then #3 entered long in direction of trend at first SR-P retrace level. Now the line on the chart 2 ticks below this #3 entry is one I held over from yesterday because it seemed important. But the recent SR-P ( green doji bar which touched vwap and bounced 12 bars before #3 entry bar) is 2 ticks above that which is where I entered with 0 ticks heat and then 12 ticks profit. Nice. But doesn't count. Also 2 ticks above previous PVP which held for many bars. In early going the PVP changes around quite a bit since there is less historical volume to compare with and here we are still in the first hour after the counts were started at 7 am.

PT just below a quasi SR-P level which was also hit nicely but then market went higher up to actual SR-P level which has a Ray drawn up there.

In any case, only #2 counts.

MAE: 1 tick.
MFE: 18
Exit +15 = $145.6 = 2.9%.
Net P/L since Nov 20 = $3914 = 78%.
% Wins: 72%.
Avg Trade: 3.8.

Looking at how the stats slowly change, it is clear that the old adage: 'keep losses small...' makes sense. I am leaning more towards taking 2-3 5 tick losers now than 1 - 2 12 tick losers. If I am right on the trade, can move stop to BE fairly fast and then it's mainly a matter of luck whether or not move continues or am stopped out. If wrong, then can take small loss and try again and can do that several times. Have not been wrong all that often of late (a phase which surely will pass as all such phases do) so have not had many stop-outs. The last one was Jan 4 and I took -17 on an iffy trade. Will not do that again because risk simply not worth the reward.







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 cclsys 
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Inspired by helpful discussion in the TwoLineTrading thread at put together morning chart of Gold (though after Journal entry was following Crude) with some examples of what I look for when trading etc. It has all been covered before but a review doesn't hurt.

This is part of my making a trading plan in next week or so before resuming live trading with highspeed connection - if I ever get it!

On page 15 of above thread a post by Cunparis in response to FredyMegaG:

Touché my friend lool In my defence, i'd like to say that "indicator free" means not relying on indicators for entry or exit signals..


Exactly. I have them on my chart but it's price action, usually a HH or LL that is my entry. Indicators just tell me what's going on and when not to trade.

I have to say I agree completely with both remarks. So in coming up with a trading plan, I am also having to define my basic method.

Seems to me that what I do can be defined as 'trading support-resistance with applied money management.'

The only indicator I use apart from manually or mentally drawn SR levels is the dynamic PVP which is unmanipulated market data not otherwise visible on a price bar chart and acts as another form of SR, so even though it is an 'indicator', I don't regard it as such (like stochastic, moving average, sine wave etc.)

I should have taken the trade arrows off this chart but am too lazy to go back and do so. On the other hand it is good to keep them there because the two series it shows (early am and coming back after checking out Crude) also show that I don't really follow my own method even though I do use my own method for reading the market. Something to ponder.

There are comments on the chart and hopefully they are self-explanatory. If anyone has any questions/comments you/they are more than welcome.

That said:

Negative skew flip = when PVP flips to new price and the vwap is now underneath versus previously above it. Then we got a half-hearted test of current DH to the tick which immediately reversed. Now I am looking to go short.

Schapiro Sell is from Jerry Perl: the 'Schapiro Effect/Rule' is that if a trade is good this bar it should be good next bar. In practice it means that if you are looking to short, wait for an up bar then enter at low of the up bar. Simple. I also look for a nice SR-P level to short from higher up if I can get it. Often you can't, especially if a new move is about to break open.

In my 'method' - which also uses vwap not mentioned above in intro - trend is defined as:

price above rising vwap = bull;
price below falling vwap = bear;

then there are various grades of bull and bear based on skew, but these are very subjective. The main thing is the SR levels.



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 cclsys 
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cory View Post
check out those lines;

youtube com/user/eminitradingschool

I don't know what this link is supposed to lead to.

Now have highspeed (well, 1.5 Kps)!

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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you need to add the '.' back between youtube com

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 cclsys 
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Didn't notice. Yes, lots of lines!

Have highspeed. Orders take about a second to process. I have forgotten what that was like.

Next step: finish up trading plan after getting the Merc tomorrow!

Also, nice to see everyone's avatars (had images disabled before)!

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 cclsys 
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Jan 14 & 15.

Yesterday had long trip to purchase new old 1988 Mercedes 450 Sel. Best deal I have ever gotten on a car ever, although too soon to be sure. Smooth as dairy cream on the highway. Corners tightly. Cannot hear the V8 engine when driving. 23 mpg (but I only drive a few times a month so mileage not an issue for me). Very nice car. Last of the generation of Benz's that were basically hand-made, or factory-made I should say, versus assembled from parts from all over the world as is the current system. Totally different level of quality all round. Cost me less than 1/50th of price when new. So tired but happy.

Jan 14: put on a trade in the am before leaving whilst getting ready. A simple pattern BO using Schapiro effect (buying high penetration of down bar in uptrend). Worked great.

Jan 15. 2 trades back to back although I did not place entry order for second quickly enough since didn't see the PVP fade setup until after the fact.

Explained well in SS and obvious on the chart. Well, first one not so obvious: but there is a thick dotted line showing an identified SR level (which didn't turn out to be super-accurate) bolstered by the C shape in the VolumeProfile. As I type now, that exact price has become the dynamic PVP so maybe I was right and the market was wrong?!

After 7 ticks heat and almost stopped out 1 ticks below a previous pullback minor sr, off to the races and fairly quick winner. If held could have made more since went beyond modest PT around confluence of vwap, old RL, just beneath SR-Ps and up to 1 tick beneath the PVP.

Last trade was late entry on retrace to PVP-2 entry, filled then instant win in 15 seconds.

Rules: 100% EXCEPT did not notice a report, so 50% for carelesness. Was too absorbed in price action.

On all three trades:

MAE: -75$
MFE: $155
MFE2: $800 (if not taken PT and max possible profit for statistical gathering purposes)
P/L: $155, 115, 85 = $355.

Net P/L since 11/20: $4271 = 85%.
% profitable = 73%
Avg P/L per trade: 4.1.

Stats are good in SIM.

Now time to finish up trading plan this weekend and begin to implement very soon thereafter. Will probably practice for 2-3 days with plan in effect to ensure it seems right. Then must just start pulling trigger in REAL again with 22ms latency connection which seems to be working well. Have tested with a few live orders away from the market and the entries go up instantly, and exits also take less than one second versus far slower on dialup previously. So that is very good.





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 cclsys 
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Jan 18

Gold very slow so switched to Crude. Slow also but stayed with it anyway. Main priority this week is to monitor the new highspeed service for continuity/reliability whilst finalising trading plan. Hope to resume live trading next week but might take longer.

Details of the trades are in the SS but basically trading towards current or previous PVP's. #2 trade had 2 tick risk after initial winner. First trade had larger risk and was prepared to enter a second near the previous PVP and exit at BE but didn't happen. The PT was 3 ticks above a previous PVP and 1 tick above an SR-P from that level (not drawn). Good judgment on PT as it turned out.

Of note: have marked an orange dot on chart on a dash line indicating roughly the time and price at which there was a sudden very large Buy Order (400+) compared to the 5-30 in all other areas in the DOM. The line shows how far to the left this order looked in Jstats histogram at the time (i.e. very large relative to the others). I have observed this in several markets and nearly always it seems this buy (or sell) can be faded. I have no idea what they are since they are always placed away from current bid-offer and pulled before price approaches the order and they generally last for only a second or two at most. Some sort of flash trading algo thing I suspect. In any case, that order gave confirmation (for me) of the short trade and sure enough, after a few more minutes, it traded through that price to the PT which at first held to the tick, then later was penetrated by one tick, then there was a bounce back up which was my Trade#2.

Net P/L on the day: $121.2 = 2.4%
MAE: 3 ticks = $35.00
MFE: 8 ticks = $75.00









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  #133 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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some pivot ideas to go with with vwap marketgauge.com/jumpstart/

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 cclsys 
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Thanks Cory.

Jan 19.

Took several trades early but did not obey my rules at all. Am not focused. Too much going on with new internet connection, new car, ordering parts etc. etc. Made money but did so by scaling in with 4 contracts which, although possible, is not 'legal' in terms of my rules.

There was one good lesson:

Trade #1: tightened stop to BE to reduce chance of early drawdown. Hit. But a good decision in line with general approach the first 1-2 trades.

Trade #2: the lesson: the entry was fine based on PVP work though without confirming pattern. It was quite possible mkt would move higher but a stop above previous swing high would have been -14 ticks which is above my usual stop limit. So originally had a second order 3 ticks below the swing high and then decided I shouldn't be doing that and tightened stop to current RH +2 at -5 ticks which was hit. What I should have done was not tighten that stop so quickly before there was a favorable move, i.e. to BE versus to -5 so soon after entry. But I was doing other things at the same time on internet which is TOTALLY against the rules but because I now have medium speed (not high speed really) am stressing the system a little to see what it can handle, so everything is a little experimental right now.

For this reason, although did make money (2%) am not counting any of it in the SS track record.

But the chart is posted as part of ongoing public record, so to speak.



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 cclsys 
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Well, I watched 3 mins of video and it was all daily charts with moving averages. Didn't get to any part with day-trading or vwap.

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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skip to middle of it, she has 3 day pivot high and low.

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 cclsys 
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Jan 20

Despite early and unscheduled consultant meeting, was more focused this am although not yet there. Having problems with Ninja which won't load certain instruments properly. Perhaps something I am doing with linking with color codes and having same codes in different workspaces. Never really worked with multiple workspaces before because of dialup limitations. But cannot get CL to load at all today except in Feb contract which seems to be the older one now.

In any case, GC market was fairly clear. Downtrend. Details of trade are in the SS comments.

Basically looking for reasonable places to short in downtrend although did not wait for ideal levels with lowest risk and was willing to double up. This is something I have to get chrystal clear on in trading plan and am not there yet. Part of me thinks I should have tight initial stops, even as tight as 5-6 and be willing to take a few losers and get that back with one winner. Part of me wants to be more generous depending on the situation, i.e. in a clear strong trend, expand the stops and take doubles (not triples with this size account) and up to $3-400 risk combined; in choppy conditions, then tighter stops have to be used because larger PT's are unrealistic then so R-R needs to be managed more tightly.

Little explanation of #1 entry for those interested:

There was an old SR from 8.28 am (magenta bar) at 1123.4, followed by a an SR-P that happened much later at about 8.58 at 1123.2. I had order to sell at 1123.1 but mkt only retraced to 1123. But that was why I was willing to add another to position. Clear SR level at that price zone.

#2 a little later. With the PVP being where it was definitely above the current DL but really quite close, a test of that DL at the very least was highly likely before a trend change. So jumped on a sell signal at first pattern entry price, as it happened a little too soon. Could have waited for a second pattern Brooks-style before entering but worked well. After PT exit above LT SR basis 30-min chart, market sold down 5 full points in a minute, which I missed.

But two good trades today with net 7.8% return.





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 cclsys 
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Am planning to look more closely at Cory's rolling Value Area. What I would really like (hint, hint!) is one indicator that shows both the rolling value areas and the price-volume histogram without painting the horizontal Value areas as is current the case. I might be able to substitute Cory's rolling VA's into the dValueArea indicator but it would probably be best to have it all written in one indicator.

There is a new version of DValue I downloaded from NT forum last night, but have not yet loaded it.

Also now have Jstats up but not sure if I want to keep it. A truly excellent indicator but not sure if looking at that volume is helpful or distracting/information overload. Also will monitor EDS Volume Bar to see if it provides significantly more granularity for short term SR helpful for trailing stops and adjusting PT's. Again, excellent indicator but not sure for same reasons.

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 Big Mike 
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Hi Ash,

Just wanted to pop in and say "thanks!", good job on the posts and journal, and keep it up. I really appreciate your commitment to the journal and the level of detail you share.

Has your trading improved as a result of this thread? My hope is yes, and I'm always trying to encourage others to start similar threads so they too can benefit. Thanks for being an inspiration to them.

Have you changed anything in your method as a result of this thread?

Mike

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 cclsys 
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It has certainly helped, though perhaps hard to say precisely how.

Having to explain method has helped me clarify where I am clear about it and where not. It is also fun. But whether it's of value to anyone else to read someone nattering about their own method is something I cannot tell.

At same time, made very good progress incorporating volume into basic bar chart reading which finally allowed me to realise that I am a support-resistance trader more than anything else. I am not sure why, but the dynamic PVP development a few weeks ago put everything into place somehow and I feel there has been a leap forward and settling down at the same time. Yes, it's an indicator, but more of a simple fact that is worth seeing on the chart since the bars alone do not reveal that price level - nor do most market profile displays allow you to see the previous levels during the course of the day. It's the best indicator I have ever had by far bar none.

My favorite way of trading is to identify S/R levels and place orders there ahead of time. But I am not doing that because of money management etc. Nevertheless, that is how I see things and this journal has been a huge help in helping me to see how I have already been seeing - if you catch my drift. So now that I know that I am an SR trader, I can relax into that a bit more and suspect this will deepen my understanding of who I am and what sort of trades I look for and then from there be able to tighten the rules. I think part of my problem is that I have tried to apply longer-term, or maybe just trend-following, rules to my approach which actually doesn't really work with those criteria in the forefront. I just didn't see this before and have no doubt that publishing here on this journal has helped clarify all that. In fact, just writing this reply has helped clarify it much further!

I am still having a hard time putting together a trading plan, but given that I have only had the high speed connection for 3 trading days or so (and this morning it was down for a while so it is not quite stable yet - but I got a static ip out of that problem which is nice), it will be a little while before I get used to it, then finalise trading plan. Am distracted on the one hand, but also still not quite used to dynamic PVP yet and how I most intend to use those price levels. I know a trading plan is not just about tactics, but still: I have to get clear on the underlying approach; once I am, then can use plan to measure success/failure and set feasible goals and monitoring routines.

In terms of 'improvement in my trading', the rubber meets road when I get out of SIM. I never planned to spend more than a few weeks in SIM regrouping back in early October I think, but my dialup connection worsened, the highspeed looked like it was coming in any week (for several months!), and so here I am in late January and not yet ready.

I have been busy with several other things the past couple of weeks and not participating in the forum as much as earlier, but do intend to maintain the journal regularly as a discipline. Then when work through several other things and winter deepens, no doubt can be a better all-round contributor.

Once again, thanks for your forum!

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 cclsys 
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Jan 24

Very busy past few days and out of the house. Did do morning sessions Thursday and Friday but had to run before updating them. So here is belated entries for the record with whatever pics etc. I put together before leaving and this morning catching up.

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 cclsys 
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Jan 25

Nice early start but contrary to resolution before opening up, put on trade quickly soon after charts loaded. Very clear setup, however I really should take more time to get in the zone before entering the first trade.

Clear downtrend; SR BO down (lower low sell); instant minimal DPT hit, did not react quickly enough to move stop to BE so put on a double with #2 at SR-P and 7 ticks below PVP; mkt went almost to PVP then sold off making new lows. #2 PT hit, #1 exited on strong buy volume for a few ticks. DONE.

Rules: am still in 2 minds about putting on doubles with this size account. Did not move stop to BE+ on #1 quickly enough because not yet ready to trade. Apart from that managed them well for 4% gain in about 10 minutes. 25% grade.

Of note on chart: have marked ellipse where positive skew flip occurred. Provided good low-risk aggressive CT buy entry on breakout of the bars which followed, in particular the 2 whose equal highs were only 2 ticks above the PVP. It seems to me just from daily observation that this flip is often an accurate and fairly early indication that at the very least a decent CT bounce might be in the offing and/or not a good time to put on addition trades in direction of trend until there is a convincing leg in that direction again, preferably to new LL's (or HH's) after which pullbacks can be taken.

NOTE: on review realise I marked the positive skew late. The actual flip happened 2 bars after the low of the day was in. Now THAT is timely/leading indicator type info. And again a nice pattern entry when mkt pulled back down to that new PVP same as example above but even better.




There are more trades on the chart which don't count since DONE. (up to 8 contracts scaling in, terrible R-R, but 95% probability of profit when done this way. With large account this is the way I would trade much of the time.)

Also, there are too many indies on the chart right now but am following Cory's rolling Value Areas - to which I have added SR zones - along with Dvalue. I would prefer just one indicator that
a) shows the ValueHistogram
b) the rolling PVP and Value Areas
c) the previous MP shaded like Cory's.

Makes it easier to manage. Still waiting for some kind soul to make a callable rolling vwap or start-time vwap so I could have a good skew indicator and see if it is helpful which I suspect it would be.

Also have the Fib bands up today which are really not necessary but just happened to be there. I find I don't pay any attention to most MA-type lines on a chart so for me it doesn't make much difference if they are loaded or not, but the picture definitely is too busy!





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 cclsys 
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Here is a snap of Cory's rolling package on a 5 min chart. Note how support came in right at Friday's MP value area. This is very good information with minimal visual noise and I think I could manage with just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine.



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  #144 (permalink)
 lolu 
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cclsys View Post
Here is a snap of Cory's rolling package on a 5 min chart. Note how support came in right at Friday's MP value area. This is very good information with minimal visual noise and I think I could manage with just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine.



cclsys,

Do you trade on the breakout from the RED dash line ? Is this RED dash line the POC on "CalculateDevelopingValueArea", which is set to "Solid-->Square" on Cory's template, but which you seem to have set to "Solid-->dash ?

Lolu

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 cclsys 
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Lolu, if you go through my comments daily you can get some idea of how I use the PVP. Yes, in my chart the PVP/POC is the red dashed line.

Rarely do I use it for breakouts. Think what is the PVP? It represents the price at which there has been the most volume. On the green horizontal VolumePrice histogram there is usually a D formed around the PVP, i.e. it is one price in the middle of many others where there has been high volume. Now this is partly a distortion due to the way the histogram is calculated: after the close of the bar the volume for that bar is equally distributed to each price in that bar, i.e. if 100 volume and 10 ticks range, then each tick in that bar is assigned 10 volume in the histogram. In reality (like with a live-updating indy like Gom's and others), most of the volume might have happened at one particular price. That said, I have tracked the dValue with Gom and find that dValue is usually 'right' within a few ticks and most of the time the volume ends up being pretty evenly distributed so the histogram looks pretty much the same.

In any case, the point is: the PVP is not generally a good breakout level because it's in the middle of a high-volume zone, i.e. where most people (right now) think fair market value is to be found.

So I tend to use it as a target or a pullback entry level.

Target: if the market went up but the PVP is still way below and a correction back down begins, there is a decent chance that the market will at least try to get back to the old PVP.

Pullback: if it does get back to PVP and that is a support level using other methods and or there is clear volume support (i.e. many more buyers than sellers around there), I might use it for a pullback entry 'naked' or watch closely for a buy pattern to develop at which point this support level is 'confirmed'.

Something like that.

I find that Cory's PVP and the dValue PVP are not the same even with the same session time settings. I wish this were not the case. Haven't had time to inspect the code to try to figure out why.

I think his rolling option (not shown in charts above) is excellent and will track this now for a few days.

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 cclsys 
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Jan 26

Fairly early start but once again pulled trigger too quickly. This is mainly a SIM problem. In live trading I usually have the opposite problem: waiting too long for ideal setups which hardly ever happen.

Trade #1 was PVP support, countertrend. Did not bounce as expected after entry and exited for BE+.

#2,3,4: shorts in downtrend. Quick winners. One had 10 ticks heat and had order to sell #2 a few ticks higher than it got to; rest had almost no heat. Had narrow targets in case market was just easing down versus cascading. In 20 minutes 4.4%. DONE.





Highspeed connection down today (again). Rain this time. It is not working well. When it is good it is good with 25 ms latency. But there are technical issues with the tower on the one hand (it seems) and also I am poorly sited in a hollow surrounded by trees and although only 1.8 km from the tower, perhaps will need to have antenna mounted on minitower of my own. The company is extremely hard to work with, doesn't believe in communicating with customers on any level of detail, won't allow the client to touch the equipment, has been over 10 days since said they would come out to check the tower and my installation etc. etc.

Upside: on bad weather days I can't trade.
Downside: I live on a maritime island where bad weather is the norm, not the exception.

Oh well....

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 Big Mike 
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Sorry to hear about the internet connection problems. A definite issue for a trader...

If it were me, and I had no options, I would literally move. I can't be without reliable high speed!

Mike

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 cclsys 
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Here is same GCam chart with Cory's rolling values set to rolling timeframe versus session-start timeframe. Very different-looking chart just from changing this one indicator. Now it has 8 hour rolling sessions making for very smooth SR zones from the Value Areas (30-70% volume traded during that period). I like it and will keep it up this way from now on.



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 cclsys 
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Yeah, Mike, I am now thinking of it too. But not this winter. Also have to give them a little time to learn the ropes. We are the first province/State in North America trying to give everyone access to high speed so it is being delivered to remote areas with rugged terrain and low population. I suspect in my case it's a combination of poor site location and glitches with setting up the tower. Also lazy antenna installers who refused to go up on the roof to find the strongest signal because it was so strong on the ground they just screwed it into the side of the building. I begged them to go on the roof but they told me that my signal was so strong down there that if they mounted it higher I would be taking bandwidth away from others. Which is a total lie and so I have asked the company never to send such liars to my house again! Additional variable/irritant to a situation that might prove hard to resolve if the company doesn't get on the ball with it. Which they might not.

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  #150 (permalink)
 lolu 
Lagos, Nigeria
 
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cclsys View Post
Lolu, if you go through my comments daily you can get some idea of how I use the PVP. Yes, in my chart the PVP/POC is the red dashed line.

Rarely do I use it for breakouts. Think what is the PVP? It represents the price at which there has been the most volume. On the green horizontal VolumePrice histogram there is usually a D formed around the PVP, i.e. it is one price in the middle of many others where there has been high volume. Now this is partly a distortion due to the way the histogram is calculated: after the close of the bar the volume for that bar is equally distributed to each price in that bar, i.e. if 100 volume and 10 ticks range, then each tick in that bar is assigned 10 volume in the histogram. In reality (like with a live-updating indy like Gom's and others), most of the volume might have happened at one particular price. That said, I have tracked the dValue with Gom and find that dValue is usually 'right' within a few ticks and most of the time the volume ends up being pretty evenly distributed so the histogram looks pretty much the same.

In any case, the point is: the PVP is not generally a good breakout level because it's in the middle of a high-volume zone, i.e. where most people (right now) think fair market value is to be found.

So I tend to use it as a target or a pullback entry level.

Target: if the market went up but the PVP is still way below and a correction back down begins, there is a decent chance that the market will at least try to get back to the old PVP.

Pullback: if it does get back to PVP and that is a support level using other methods and or there is clear volume support (i.e. many more buyers than sellers around there), I might use it for a pullback entry 'naked' or watch closely for a buy pattern to develop at which point this support level is 'confirmed'.

Something like that.

I find that Cory's PVP and the dValue PVP are not the same even with the same session time settings. I wish this were not the case. Haven't had time to inspect the code to try to figure out why.

I think his rolling option (not shown in charts above) is excellent and will track this now for a few days.

cclsys,

Thanks for the details. I'd expected that you're going to continue with "just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine". I already have just those two indies (i. e. MPValues and CalculateDevelopingValuesArea) and they look very good and interesting on my SbSRenko chart. The POC is the purple dash line. Have a look at today's EURUSD chart.

Lolu

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  #151 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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Big Mike View Post
... I can't be without reliable high speed!

Mike

that is my #1 criteria for moving not location, location, location but internet high speed.

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 mea109 
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cclsys View Post
Hopefully this week Mike. Fingers are crossed! After 7 months the power to the tower has been connected. Local politics....

Mea: attaching a full zip export so you can see Cory's rolling pivots which is partially based on an old FibBands indicator version and the zip file will include all other indicators referenced by Cory's. Remember that when using the VWAP in this indicator it starts at midnight; no way to change it (yet).

If it doesn't work right, let me know; might be because of changes made after the version Cory is using. It's working fine on my computer so hopefully this export will also work fine on yours.



hello Cclsys
sorry for the long delay in my response, I tried to import the file, but impossible, he said, "program error"
voila c'etait to inform you, as I have said
thank you and good luck

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 cclsys 
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Jan 27

Early am session. Contract has rolled over on my long-term charts but April Gold has less volume than February.

One trade, a PVP-R (retrace to PVP level). Market in overall TR, up around the VAt level with plenty of room below; prepared to put on a #2 beneath the current RH/DH. 5 ticks heat, then PT hit and more if held. Not doing anything else because liquidity so poor. Maybe will pick up as day-session unfolds.





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 cclsys 
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Re internet:

first, when I moved here I was informed by the telcom here that within six months I would have broadband access via the fiber optic cable that is not 50 yards from my house. This was a lie. There were never any plans to do this, but they didn't want to announce this so instead prevaricated.

Second, I was not planning to trade when I moved here although I checked into highspeed access with that in mind as a Plan B.

But now that there is highspeed and I am trading, if it continues to be dysfunctional after a month or so, then I will have to move clearly.

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 cclsys 
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Cory, I think your rolling indy would be good in the downloads section, probably VIP. Just a suggestion.

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 cclsys 
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Mea, sorry that didn't work. But: you can get Cory's rolling indicator somewhere on this thread a few pages back. And you can get my CCLBands from the VIP downloads. And also the Dvalue with dynamic PVP on the main downloads section here. Each of them works fine. Then have fun with them.

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 cclsys 
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connection back; antenna re-sited on tripod on roof. Hopefully am up and running for good now.

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 cclsys 
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Connection back and mainly good but a sudden loss today in the am. So goofed off basically, downloading things (documentaries about Josephine Baker with old footage), testing the connection and trading in SIM quite playfully. Only a few multiples (which are illegal for my size account), mainly singles and doubles.

SS results attached but none of them count in the 'official' record.



73.77% profitable. Net $2128.00. But meaningless really although I was using the time to clarify rules a bit more in trading plan which has been stalled of late although I do think of it every day and every night before going to sleep. Hope to have time this weekend to start finalising it. This connection is good when it works. If it occasionally goes out, I will have dialup backup connection. Since all positions always have bracket exits, although inconvenient it is not the end of the world if a connection is lost for a minute or so, although of course I would greatly prefer it not be the case!

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 cclsys 
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Jan 29

On chart today the 'official' trades are between the vertical lines. Earlier on was in 'play/study' mode, also after DPT reached.

Trade#1 with the trend but after negative skew flip. Late entry after a little price confirmation but immediately turned around and
Trade#2 pattern reversal on failure of buy signal and with expectation of return to vwap area lower down. Recovered loss from first trade. Exited early at vwap because of volume support and hesitation in mkt. If held, much more possible.
Trade #3: tight trail stop to prevent going back in red and also because of strong vol support.
Trade #4: entered after strong vol support broken at that price (i.e. re-entered #3 essentially), PT almost hit and then a fast bounce took out +4 trailx. DONE.

Mentally still a little scattered. Have been going to town getting new (old) car ready for driving more in past 10 days than I usually do in several months; also new highspeed connection in and out and getting used to having it (watching video clips at night before bed, downloading stuff etc., a new toy). I think I have clarified my rules now, but also have realised that the entry rules are really not so important per se and have to work on developing ways to create rules that I can grade, follow and change that have more to do with following discipline etc. Hopefully over the weekend will get working first draft of trading plan and soon thereafter can go back to REAL trading.

At same time, it's buddhist New Year on Feb 15 and I often just stop everything the last 10 days of 'old' year and might do that this year in the sense of starting the REAL campaign in the New Year. Once the car is fixed and the connection stable for at least 3 days will consider this further. Right now neither is the case, today is Friday, connection is only 2 days old in new antenna location so still too many variables jiggling around.

Have noticed that in SS my average MFE is 15 ticks which is the default PT in the DOM. Clearly I have to work on letting profits run more. This is probably the single greatest weakness in my trading. Still have a tendency to expand stops (take on a double at a better price from initial entry) which expands risk without corresponding expansion of PT's. Lack of patience and confidence. But also even though in SIM I know that in REAL I personally do not like to let a winner turn into a loser and plan to be more aggressive with moving stops to BE+ than I was before, intend to have generally tighter stops and take smaller losses than before, and also intend to let a few more run longer than feels comfortable in order to get larger PT's from time to time.





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 cclsys 
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Early start. Volume sufficient. Trading Plan not ready, still in SIM. Am having a total block with the trading plan. Hope to work through it this week. Connection seems stable finally, but need to give it a few more days to be sure.

Several trades well described in the SS. Basic SR's, SR-R and suchlike. Small profits taken, one 4 tick loss, net 3.4% / $172.00 in about an hour.





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 cclsys 
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Cory, just looked through your calcdeveloping area indy and realised that you VaT and VaB are standard deviations, not the usual 30-70% Value Areas. Good, but not the same since those levels are closely monitored by many.

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 cclsys 
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Starting tomorrow I will begin to explain each trade in terms of current trading plan rules which are, simply put:

to trade my pattern entries in the direction of the trend except when countertrend permission exists.

Countertrend rule:

Break of clear trendline
Skew flip
2nd pattern entry (like H2/L2 approach)
R-Ratio acceptable (i.e. no huge stops on a CT trade).
Most favorable when the PVP and/or Vwap are far enough away to present reasonable target (1.5 - 4) pts versus being a very long way away (i.e. it is a very strong trending day) or very close (meaning we are already in a probable consolidation zone).

Trend:

Higher Highs and rising vwap = bull;
Lower Lows and falling vwap = bear;

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 cclsys 
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Feb 2. Early start again today but only trades after the vertical line at official open are in the SS.

Note on 'official' trades: it might look like I am cherry-picking good ones, but I always decide before entering in SIM whether or not it is official and once I start I don't stop counting them until I am done. It is too difficult to change SIM accounts in Ninja, I have found. Having extra DOM's makes no difference in that regard, so I alternate from official to unofficial mentally.

Market was choppy in early going and in retrospect should have waited for pickup in speed. Impatience. Many trades which are explained in the SS and because so many will not offer detailed commentary in terms of above post viz. rules. That said, all trades were valid. Early exits to prevent DD is also legal although this morning it took an hour to get DPT+ and several trades if held longer would have made DPT much sooner.

As soon as finished officially, market picked up and grabbed a couple of nice winners whilst reading other posts in forum etc. Having a faster market makes a big difference.

7 trades, 6 winners, 1 BE, no losers.

Net $109.2 = 2.2%.

Note on chart: have returned to more simple chart after experimenting with a few extras except that now that have highspeed which seems to be working well (finally), have added in EDSvolume bars and JstatsLevel II to get more granularity on current/recent volume action. I find the EDS bars can help me fine-tune the key prices that sometimes dValue has smoothed out due to its averaging-at-close-of-bar method. Jstats helps reveal strong potential areas of S/R that are beyond the 5-price limitation in the DOM.





Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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30 minute chart. On Dec 24 on p 8 of this thread offered as 'Christmas present' to forum members a longer-term trade of buying around 1095 level with 1143+ target.

Well, I got the support level a wee bit wrong, although that was just a ballpark number. Went down to 1088 (close enough), and then it did indeed go back up to 1140+ level (1160's) soon thereafter as foreseen. Wish I had taken my own advice!


"In any case, if a pullback to 1096 level (far right ellipse) holds and there is a HH breakout from around there, should get a nice 40 point rally to 1145 level, but certainly rectangle low around 1115 at very least. Key level in Feb contract is 1143.30 which is the coral dash line just above thicker crimson line mentioned above. Here we have the POC of the last week that was HH HL with swing low that went on to the peak high, and then two =Swing Highs before final plunge, and where the 1 and 2 month vwaps look like they are going to be converging soon."





That 1143 level was also accurate in that first it went to 1142.60, then pulled back considerably to 1122, then went on up higher to 1163. I have not checked, but maybe the Feb contract made it to 1143. ( Nope, only 1137, 6 points lower, but then only 3 days later was at 1160+).




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Correlated markets? TF, CL (top left, right), GC, Soy (bottom left, right). All moving together. Have seen this many times.

Indicates (to my thinking) that there is a lot going on in terms of the $ business since all mkts now have to gauge their price points relative to US$ valuations.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Feb 3

Late night dicking around on internet downloading old movie clips from the 1930's. New toy. Also drank coffee in the am and this is often the after-effect. Also it is -18C and in my rickety old domicile the fire has to be stoked regularly below -15 and careful attention paid to freezing pipes etc. Rural life.

Wake-up intuition: just take simple pattern swing trades, i.e. a HH or LL and go for 5-6 tick profits. Did so (within rules) on Trade#1, thereafter it varied a little. This sort of goes along with the Rat approach. In theory I can use my SR approach to determine entry zones/direction, but then pretty much always use simple pattern entries. This addresses and internal conflict: my preference emotionally/stylistically is to place orders at SR levels before price gets there and then see what happens. When it works, it's fantastic, but it is a somewhat slapdash approach and I need to get clear in my head that this is NOT what I do in live trading. It comes from having first tried day-trading using a retracement trade method which does exactly this. Nothing wrong with that approach, but I can first identify a retracement zone (like SR-P, PVP or SR-R), THEN if it is holding/valid, take an entry on confirming pattern and with reasonable R-R (or enter at more favorable R-R after entry is triggered, or with subsequent lower risk confirmation pattern if the move has not already played itself out).

Did take a trade around 4 am which was an instant $100 winner (2%). But not counting it since didn't decide beforehand that it was official. Still not confident in overnight market which has less liquidity although often good speed and orderly charts, i.e. doesn't just waffle around chasing stops/entries etc.

This morning began the day with clear resolution not to trade until had the charts opened for 15 minutes. So what happened: within 1 min of opening the chart put on a trade, albeit did not place it as 'official' in the ATM. (Have 2 strategies, 'official' and 'play' but don't always remember to switch them, but do keep track mentally.)

On the chart have placed 2 ellipses which were Play trades. (This is not determined after the fact.)

Seem to have settled back down to tick versus minute charts.
Seem to like having the EdsVol histograms though not yet sure if it doesn't add too much noise, helpful as they are. Same for Jstats, although seeing the Level II orders above/below DOM is definitely helpful.

The first ellipse is an Eds-based trade. Large Eds histo-bar indicating potential Support. Didn't work at all. But that's why I took it in Play, to see if doing something like that which I would never normally do gives different results. It didn't. Suspect the way to use them that way is to provide confirmation of existing method setups or caution if they indicate the entry price is in no-man's land etc.

The trades are detailed in the SS. I did follow the rules with all, although in one case I am not sure why I entered at the point I did and think that in fact I did NOT follow the rules because I was 'looking through the bar' versus waiting for it to close. So in that case did NOT follow the rules although at the time I thought I was. Instant loser. Re-entered afterwards at the actual H2 point which was fast winner. Live and learn.
(around 12.02 with 2 trades marked 'H2 late' and then 'H2').

Have also marked charts with text to clarify method for myself and any reading this journal. This is part of fixing the rules.

The connection seems to be holding up well. Now 3 days in a row and no disconnects. Am also running a Market Analyser with many instruments to stress the bandwidth demand, and this morning added in an ES tick chart to stress the system. For now seems fine although am having XP OS glitches with parts of previous window remaining on screen, mouse arrows 'sticking' to DOM GUI etc. Might be time for a fresh installation.

Of note: drew rectangle showing how the dynamic PVP level worked as key SR for the duration of the period during which I was trading. Retraced there several times and it always held. Also have marked a couple of SR lines that are in accord with 30 min chart.

The rules are falling into place and think by the end of the week will have them set. Now I understand that the main function of the rules is to give me something to evaluate my trading by versus being 'holy grail' systems per se, can formalise them properly. Small insight with big ramifications. Hit me yesterday whilst wrestling in -40C storm to protect foundation-level water pipes from outside windchill etc.

7 trades, 2 losers 5 winners, DPT made on the first trade so subsequent trades unnecessary.

Trade #1: Picture-perfect CT H2 with shortened PT at the dynamic PVP. Worked perfectly. DONE.
Conditions:
1 (optional but recommended) Positive skew flip. This is when dynamic PVP moves, in this case down and beneath the vwap, making the vwap above it and therefore a positive skew. 6 am start for vwap and PVP.
2 Trendline break (not drawn but obvious and shortly after skew flip).
3 H2 entry.
4 PT was small so could have passed on the trade or held for higher PT with BEX. Elected to take the money and run, probably because the PVP was also at previous SRP level from only a few bars back after the most recent SH around 1147. So this was a double 'magnet' price zone which I expected to at least get probed even if the up-move did not work and wanted to get out fast if it went up there.


All subsequent trades unnecessary but at the end of about an hour was 1.8% up after a 1.2% drawdown. First image pic is of this trade only.

NOTE: I did not take short trades even though in downtrend until later on. This was because mind overly hooked on the CT setups because of confluence with 30 min SR. Need to examine this sort of thing to see if this is an ongoing tendency or just a slight problem with today. In my defense, the downtrend was not strong and the market kept bouncing back to PVP, so really it was more of a trading range with slight downward bias then a real 'down trend'. Still, could have taken a couple of shorts to speed up reaching goals. For example at 12.20 a great setup after multiple failures to penetrate PVP (could have entered up there with 4 tick risk) or at least selling on a penetration of the short-term SR formed by those sideways bars up there around 1111.12 (just before the losing EDS-based buy signal). Suspect I did not 'see' the short setup because had already 'seen' the Eds buy setup which is not part of the rules and purely experimental. Still, it distracted me from trading official method which is my goal now. So new rule: NO experiments until officially DONE.

Rule 1 for this week to work on: 15 minutes before first trade.
Rule 2: no experimentals until officially DONE.





Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 4

Took one trade today shortly before the open for gain of $75.00 but did not record in SS and later on put on many 'play' trades in what turned out to be a potentially significant sell-off although in GC, at least, it went down to 1050-ish which is a key fundamental level (where India bought millions of ounces not long ago).

I had Ninja problems later on and had to rebuild database etc. so fell behind on journal-entry discipline today and was, frankly, to entranced with the markets once the steep sell-offs got underway to catch up. Will try to enter the trade tomorrow. It was a very simple setup and exit which basically had me DONE very early on.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 4 late entry.

This morning (Feb 5) updated SS from yesterday's trades and manually put them on chart (since a different SIM account from one loaded). Yesterday was a big day market-wise but my personal mission was to stress my connection and Ninja to see how far I could go. Had many workspaces up tracking multiple instruments, multiple JStats and Gom indies whilst simultaneously downloading files in another application.

By and large it held up well although after a few hours had memory issues and had to close down, reopen etc. But apart from possibly 1 sec delays in ES, the data kept up despite workspace/charting/mouse trail 'stick' issues. This morning, with no downloading and less workspaces open, NT kept hanging up. So now have removed most of the Gom indies and Jstat indies and will see what happens when I have just 2 instruments being tracked with them, which is enough for my purposes. And if that still hangs NT up, then will keep with DValue only, although I must say I find the Eds VolumePrice bars helpful in providing far better granularity in terms of which particular prices have seen the most volume recently. If I were smarter, I would hook them into the Gom Recorder and quite possibly they would be the only live-updating addition I would use. I also like the GomCDHA (heikin ashi cumulative delta indicator). It seems to be a very very good swing indicator which is rarely wrong. As such it bears looking at carefully as something to help filter and increase probabilities.

Took 2 trades in early going yesterday, both around PVP/vwap support, both trading pullbacks to that support, both working out well. Have marked them on chart with arrows whose points show the price. I was using a different chart (2 minute?) so the entries don't make much sense on these pics. But part of keeping the record here on journal. More commentary in SS which is attached to today's entry.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 5.

First, almost followed my new 15 minute rule but not really. I do not understand this but it has a lesson. If I cannot give myself a simple rule and follow it, then the whole trading plan campaign is not going to work. And this rule makes sense. To clarify: the official trades below were well after 15 mins, but soon after opening up gold and before even looking at 30 min chart, cleaning up SR lines etc which is my official opening routine, placed a couple of SIM trades because it was a fast market. Am NOT supposed to do that. On the other hand: when trading live I never have this problem (rather the opposite: waiting for overly perfect setups) and think this is a result of being too long in SIM whilst waiting for highspeed connection which was delayed by several months. With that said:

Trade #1: A PVP-retrace in questionable downtrend. It worked with 7 ticks heat (which means entry was not all that good) but in retrospect I was being hasty.
Trade #2: Schapiro Pattern sell (low of last up bar in downtrend). Again, questionable trend, on the other hand, since around the pvp and plenty of S/R levels below, was reasonable; what happened is that price touched then immediately went against trade although luckily not to the stop which was in the middle of nowhere.

Rules: Trade #2 should not have been taken because stop in no-man's land between entry and next SR levels higher up. Excuse: I was having problems with NT and working in other workspaces after placing this order in trading workspace to fix the memory/hanging-up issues. If this was REAL trading I would not have kept that order in the market. But since I forgot about it totally and it was triggered, decided as soon as it was triggered that it would count since when I placed it minutes earlier it was 'official'.

Rules in general:

a) did not follow 15 minute rule.
b) #1 not really a valid trend trade since mkt correcting after fast up-move
c) #2 not really valid since in wide-range barbed wire situation and not even looking at trading chart.

Have to give myself 25% today on rules despite 4% results.

It is lunar New Year on Feb 14th. Will spend next week formalising the trading plan and preparing to go back to REAL trading after then.

NOTE on charts: to reduce clutter with the added-in Gom Volume Profile (since removed) and EDS vol-price histos, took off bands and instead put up a simpler RGaussian 90 line with bands .382 around it. A good smooth trend indy with the bands highlighting good retracement levels. Am increasingly finding that the DValue histo alone provides sufficient context for the range and the relationship of price to vwap and price to PVP (close or far) is essentially the same sort of contextual info that I am looking for from bands, and since the bar/price patterns at any given level are still 80% of what I look at, perhaps having the 7-band indy up there is overkill despite all the time I put into making a fancy indy with 1001 options.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Why I find the dynamic PVP so helpful.

You don't need a dynamic PVP in that at any given time the current displayed PVP using the normal method is right there. But for review, the dynamic is very helpful because you can see where it was at any given time. Also to use in strategy development as a price point or basis for conditions and then be able to review the system on a chart to see why it was doing what it did since otherwise you could not see the PVP at the time of the trade.

Just quickly marked up a few points in past hour in GC where the PVP provided accurate S/R and often at spots where the price bars did not indicate such clear SR.

Of note: the lowest low on the right. Well, okay, it was an SR-P level (my method), but apart from my method, not a very clear zone. One would have expected it to go down further to test the lows. But that old PVP line (red dash) indicates probable stopping point. Which is what happened. Also, therefore, a good target area.

I like the idea of naked trading, but I do want to see volume-related info like this which price bars and standard lower panel volume histograms simply do not show.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 8

Am in a bit of a muddle right now. Because have highspeed have been monitoring Gomi's indies, in particular the Volume Profile but also CDHA and the vwap, the CDHA being very accurate I find, a rare combination of smoothing and timeliness whilst being mainly based on volume input (delta). But since the Gomi VP and the DValue VP are often giving different readings, esp. in terms of the PVP/POC price, I am getting confused. Also Gomi's indies seem to require far more processing.

At the same time, all these super-simple 5-minute BM style charts with bands sported by very competent traders here on the forum are finally getting to me. There is something so tempting about just having the price bars and a moving average and a slower timeframe which weeds out a lot of noise whilst providing multiple setups. I have also noticed that SR-P levels on the 5 minute charts are often very accurate, more consistently so often than tick charts.

I thought I was settled with my workspace for a while with Dvalue basically. Then I added EDS Vol-Price bars which provide excellent on-bar-update volume granularity showing the key prices in the recent past. But if you change anything on the chart, you lose all the plots and I find that very irritating although in theory once I settle down with a workspace again I won't need to change things. Probably I should just run 2-3 workspaces in the same instrument at once, or have several different chart templates in the same workspace so I don't have to make changes. But the whole thing is complicated and I am looking for simplicity.

So today changed the workspace to have a BM-type 5 min chart on the right and a Volume-Profile type 366 chart on the left in order to compare them minute by minute and either decide on one or perhaps always work with two since they do give different information and when that information converges I suspect it makes for a clearer read for my mainly SR methods. Have taken off DValue to reduce noise but kept the DValue PVP as a white dash plot to compare with the Gomi Volume Histograms which are more accurate tick by tick.

Glossary: SR = Support Resistance; SR-P = SR pattern level (where a new move took off); SR-R = SR retrace, i.e. a retrace to previous and now broken SR level; PVP/POC = PeakVolumePrice/PointOfControl or PriceOfControl where most volume traded at that price during the current session.

Trading:

for some reason woke up very early after not much sleep but after a couple of hours of trying to decide on a basic workspace/template and not being able to, focused on the Gold market for a while and then started trading in SIM.

Trade#1: a fully legal lower low SR BO down. Did not move very fast after entry so put PT just above PDL (Previous Daily Low) which I can see nicely on a minute chart thanks to the CMI Daily Pivots (which don't work on tick charts, another irritation).

Trades #2 and #3: both semi-legal but according to new trading plan not legal. So the first one as soon as I realised this was not legal, exited for 1 tick. 5-6 were possible as it turned out.

#3 was one where there was visible resistance both on the volume histograms (which started re-drawing at session-start at 8.20 and are no longer visible on the attached pic - another irritation!) and the 5 min where I tweaked entry based on vol resistance near a good SR-P (ray drawn). However, immediately after entry I realised that this was against the rules. Why? Because I don't take SR-P's 'naked' (i.e. without subsequent pattern entries) against the trend and the trend had just changed to up basis closing above a rising MA on the 5 min, or closing above a (slightly) rising vwap on the 366. So I exited that one too which was a good thing since it went up much further as soon as I exited.

So two trades in a row NOT following the rules but at least I exited as soon as I realised this.

#4 is interesting. I did not mark the triangle on the tick chart. (I don't want to enable the trade markers because then I will lose the EDS vol price bars - another irritation!). This one is an optional but legal trade. There was extremely high volume support just above the #5 SR sell level, so I place an order to buy 4 ticks above where the volume was light in the DOM with the stop-reverse 2 ticks below the current DL. It took a couple of tries with mkt going up 5-6 ticks and coming back down to entry, then third time went down to within 2 ticks of stop/reverse looking like it was going to be a loser but then bounced strongly up and bagged the default 15 tick PT.

#5 - an order placed long before finally filled, another standard SR BO down LL sell. Placed the PT just above the MP value area from Friday and slightly larger than default 15 tick PT. After entry (got a 2 tick better than entry order price in SIM) it bounced back up by only 1 tick and then worked its way down for a little while and then suddenly plunged about 10 ticks in a second at which point the PT was filled.

So 5 trades, 2 illegal and BE+, 3 legal and decent winners. DONE. $408.00 = 8% on the day in about 75 minutes.


This week I am determined to push through current confusions and emerge by the New Year (Feb 14) with a clear plan and clear workspaces. The connection seems reliable although for some reason I often can't stream video clips (another irritation). So now after monitoring last week after the antenna was sited higher up on the property I know I have a workable connection, all that is left is to finalise the plan which is 90% there. Writing it was hard for some reason, but even harder is internalising it. I am going to print it out and have it in front of me for a few days.

The rules are very similar to what I have been doing here in the journal with a few tightening-up modifications, the main ones being

a) not trading countertrend unless X
b) taking 'naked' SR-P's only in direction of trend and only at identifiable vol S/R using the histograms or current bid/offers in the DOM/Jstats. There is nothing wrong with identifying an SR-P or SR-R level and then waiting for a pattern to trigger entry.
c) definition of trend which is really simple: if using a vwap chart it is price above rising vwap = bull, same in reverse for bear. Or if using a Collective Band chart, same but basis the middle MA.
d) a newly developed entry is based off the PVP using it in the same way as an SR-P or SR-R, i.e. a retracement level (never a breakout level). And with this again, waiting for pattern confirmation to enter is fine depending on the volume situation, i.e. if volume isn't saying anything clear around the PVP as price approaches on a pullback, wait for a pattern. If it is, can take it. Again, in direction of trend only unless CT conditions met.

CT conditions: mainly lifted from Brooks which is indicator-free approach: Clear move (say up for example), then combination of broken trendline and two sell patterns (L2). Have not decided if should count the L1 and L2 after the trendline break or if just need all three to confirm CT situation. For me also I like to see price at some sort of SR or SR-P or PVP flip or SR breakdown etc. but if the L2 looks good and there is reasonable R-R can take the L2 as it is, and now especially if the GomCDHA has also turned bearish. Same in reverse for bull CT. Why have CT? Because markets often rotate and churn and waiting for clear trend situation sometimes takes an hour or two and if I wait that long usually I fail to pull the trigger when the setup finally comes along because I don't trust it somehow. I have seen this again and again and it is just how I am.

Will attach SS later (not yet filled out).



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Example of CounterTrend setup which occurred whilst typing in the above: Have marked trendline on tick chart on left, then placed arrow lines on both tick and 5 min chart to show entry points. Tick chart was earlier but that is not surprising since the 366 (neolithic nr.!) is about a 2-3 minute bar time chart versus the 5 min on right.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Basis the 30 min chart, if this CT move puts in a bottom, I expect mkt to retrace to 1090 level = VaT from Thursday, i.e. about $2000 per contract.
If not and new lower lows, then probably down to 1054 level = last PVP and also Vab from Friday.


We'll see.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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A trade I don't like but took because a clear 5 min L2 in downtrend. Would prefer to see further downside action away from volume congestion. But as I type, already 10 ticks profit and stop to BE+.... PT hit, another $245.00



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Rule 1 for this week to work on: 15 minutes before first trade.
Rule 2: no experimentals until officially DONE.

Forgot about #2 so posting that here to keep track of myself tomorrow.

Meanwhile, nice simple article on long term situation viz. Gold:

A Stern Reality Check for Gold Naysayers | The Daily Gold

Of special interest, this picture:



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 9

Worst day in a long time. Woke up very clear about rules and how to get trading plan into something useful. Then had 7 losers and 1 marginal winner. Details on trades in the SS. Suffice to say that it has been a trading range type day thus far and I was not using trading range type techniques and even when I 'twigged' to this, did not follow through being already seriously underwater. -9% / -$445.2.





The first chart shows the situation when I was ready to trade, which is shortly after the 8.20 day session open. Took a breakout to the upside since in an uptrend which didn't work at all (and that level was not a true SR since basically just a short-term cluster around the opening time), then took a breakout sell which also didn't work, CT because so far above YC about 10 full points lower. That didn't work. In retrospect, this conflicted scenario right at the beginning of the day-session might have been regarded as a good indication of how things were going to play out. The market did work its way down the next two hours, but in trading-range type fashion which I failed to perceive clearly.

Irony of the day: being much more clear on rules and why to have them and how to fashion them, results were terrible!

Did follow the rule about waiting 15 mins.
Did follow the rule about no SIM trades before Officials.

However: was not really 'in the zone' when I started because the market seemed muddled to me. I should have trusted this and waited but was trying to 'follow the rules'. This produced another insight about rules backing up one from yesterday: the most important rules are not about entries, exits and money management, i.e. trading tactics, rather how you trade, what the overall daily parameters are in terms of profit goals and max loss in the context of an account strategy. So now I think I am ready to go to the trading plan and re-write it so that it becomes a helpful process-plan in actual trading campaign.

The trap with the plan/rules is to regard them as external realities, like walls, roads, doors, bridges etc. The real rules are internal rules about how to conduct battle, not how to wield the sword in hand-to-hand combat (the tactics). So despite this being a disastrous day, I think something is glimmering through the fog here.

Chart Notes: the trades are shown on the 5 min chart (attached) even though I still favor the tick chart. But I am comparing them. Also helpful to see how trades taken using the tick chart look on the 5 min. The 5 min is looking better, but then it would on a bad day like this. Also of interest: the 5 min chart shows several clear swings, all of them of short duration, and remarkably little barbed wire. The shorter-term tick chart is more messy (not shown).

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Took time this morning. Have expanded the 15-min rule to 30 mins including various other things like morning tea/coffee, ablutions etc. Might also add in a meditation period before turning on computer because once I do that, tend to settle into it quickly.

So this is a journal entry record that today I kept that rule.

#2: early rule: no SIM /Play trades before 'officials'. In live trading (soon), this means no SIM trades before REAL trades, so the rule will be the same.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Excerpt from Sun Tzu:

Chaos is indeed a great challenge for the general.....

"Chaos is born from order.
Cowardice is born from bravery.
Weakness is born from strength."

Chaos and order are two aspects of the same thing. Together they constitute the totality of our experience., the good and bad, the confusion and clarity - how it is all interconnected and constantly shifting. From the smaller perspective, we experience these as opposed. But in order to 'take the whole' [ the goal of the accomplished General acc. to Sun Tzu] the sage commander must work with this totality. He resides in the fundamental orderliness of the chaos, and thus for him,

"The fight is chaotic yet one is not subject to chaos." (Ch. 5).

Although chaos is generally a difficult and uncomfortable time, it is also dynamic, a time of great openness and creativity. The sage commander develops an appreciation for its potent quality. Since he holds no fixed position, chaos is not a threat. He is not undermined by uncertainty. Rather than giving i to the impulse to control chaos when it arises, the sage commander rests in the chaos and allows it to resolve itself.

This trust resembles conventional patience, in that the sage commander refrains from action. Yet rather than an act of forbearance, it is a matter of letting things happen in their own time. It is withdrawing from the smaller skirmishes to allow a greater victory to ripen.

"When it has rained upstream, the stream's flow intensifies.
Stop fording. Wait for it to calm." (Ch 9).

p 105. The Denma Translation Commentary to the Text

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 10 8.48.
Waited for clear (SR LL Sell) setups which featured 3-day trendline break on the 30-min chart, but then was far too tight with BE stops, not following rules. Expecting the market to do what I want because I am in clear state of mind about what's going on. Hubris/Control.

Two BE trades instead of one 5% winner (27 ticks).

(Summary later after trading session completed.)



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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9.30:

Having another very bad day. It seems that having 366 and 5 min together is counter-productive. It is worth studying, and needs to be studied live, but it is also conflicting focus and how I read the market. Many BE trades and a couple of losers. Going for larger profits to make up for yesterday but also because there are valid lower targets, so not taking smaller profits. If had done so, would be up versus down $200.00.

This is part of finalising the rules and working with them strictly is a bit of a head game right now further complicating matters.

Will try to recover today's losses before quitting for the day and then need to reconsider what I am doing right now.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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949. Still off base generally. Am attaching screenshot of Trade Performance.

Have decided not to enter all this in SS. Right now am in a review/analysis period finalising rules and chart set up so counting all this is counter-productive. Yes, this is partly because of so many losers last 2 days, but am 100% certain this is largely due to having 2 charts to compare, along with Gomi volumes to compare with DvalueArea, and also working on finalising rules at same time. The sudden drastic change in performance is due to this, not any great change in market behavior. So keeping a record of this particular phase is not meaningful statistically.

So for rest of session will now be in 'unofficial/play' mode and then will consider how to proceed through end of the week. Suspect the priority will be to monitor the charts and then decide on official workspace and trading plan over the weekend, then monitor that decision the following week, then go into REAL the week after. But this week is an exploratory one. It has been so far, this is not a bad thing to do, but keeping a record of it is unnecessary, even unhelpful.

That said, I will publish screenshots of what I did, just will not add them into the SS which keeps track of statistics. I will count yesterday though since it is already in the SS.

Tomorrow will trade the 5 min chart only.
Friday will trade the 366 chart only.

I will still keep both up to compare and hopefully one will not influence trading in the other. If it does, that is a sign that my rules are not clear and that too will be helpful information.

For rest of today will continue as started to see if I can learn anything from this double-chart situation. I suspect not.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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10.00 Full recovery on first trade that finally hit PT. $7.00 balance.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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10.27. Finally put on a double and exited with DPT of above $150 (to make up for yesterday's -445 in attempt to end up plus for the week.
Will post charts soon.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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1044
Charts attached. Made more than $150 goal finally by taking an aggressive CT H2 buy signal bolstered by recent positive skew flip. Exited for small gains because CT, more possible.

Basically moved back to tick chart for main reference. Immediately things get clearer. Not sure why using 2 is so confusing, but apparently it is.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Have decided that even though they are very good, am removing the Gomis. Just cannot figure out how to handle the recording. If I make any change to a chart they disappear. It's too finicky for me without chrystal clear instructions on how to make it work and even then I think it is taking up too much processing. DvalueArea is pretty good. Was considering the 5 min chart with the more granular Gomi Vol Profile (DValue is much less accurate the longer the time-frame used on the chart, hence why I am fussing with all this).

I would like to get the EDS Price Bars recordable but will not be able to give the time for programming dicking-around to figure out how to do it since the Gomi functions are a far more advanced level of programming than I understand.

Pity, but there it is.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #186 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Heard on the radio last night that Silver Supply is being used at a rate of about 10% per annum since much that is used is thrown away as junk computer parts,with little being replaced from new mining. It is a very valuable metal which is being forced down in value as part of protecting US$, Chinese bond holdings in the same etc. but a serious shortage is building up soon so this market could take off big time. The futures market has liquidity issues for day-traders.

I do not know if what I heard is accurate. But if there is more than an ounce or two of truth (pun intended), prices could rocket up at any time. Could make for good longer-term out-the-money option play...?

I think it's going to be a wild year starting fairly soon.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 11

Early start. Did not properly obey 30 min rule since during time charts were open I was finishing up Skew indicator and CCLFibBands indicators by including new hvwap (now CCLvwap) which has callable start-end times. Then noticed a nice pattern buy setup and placed and order. This is not really following the rule. Was not in any sort of zone, still generally waking up.

But a good lesson. Moved stop very quickly to BE+ and taken out. Have been doing this more of late and so much so that it is too much. So new rule to fine-tune:

Move to BE+ only after 6 ticks in open profit and then ideally only after there has been one pullback from +6 or more and mkt has exceeded previous level. So if long, wait for a higher high and then put in the BE+. This is now a rule in trading plan. Rule for BE stop was missing in the plan even though I often use one.

Had a modest 1 point PT which as it happened was 1 tick below RH and would have been filled. Lesson learned.

For today: still in experimental mode with both tick and 5 min chart up. Will not count anything in SS until have decided upon trading chart and then will only have one up.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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837. Took a short. Did not follow above BE rule. Mkt went +9, then came back to BE. But then mkt went back down only to +5 and I moved stop to BE+ and it was hit. Then mkt went to PT at +11 before again bouncing back to BE+. Looks like it's a good rule.

Will switch to Silver today just in order to have exposure to a market I have never followed. But try to apply basic rules/principles. Using tick chart as main referent, but have 5 min up to compare. 30 min for LT referent.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #189 (permalink)
 darthtrader3.6 
wny
 
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cclsys View Post
I do not know if what I heard is accurate. But if there is more than an ounce or two of truth (pun intended), prices could rocket up at any time. Could make for good longer-term out-the-money option play...?

I think if your going to play precious metals the best thing is to not listen to any kind of news/opinions on them...just too many shysters in that business.
5 year silver chart is looking pretty range bound at this point and certainly not looking like its setting up for a breakout.

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 cclsys 
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Nice Silver PVP to PVP action. My original buy order was 1 tick lower at old PVP (and previous DC price) and was touched not filled. Then the mkt went straight back up to the current PVP in about a minute or so. To the tick.

The Buy Stop order is from earlier and should have been pulled. Was also monitoring several other markets. Am increasingly curious about highly correlated most markets seem. Is this normal? Until recently I was only looking at one market at a time with slow connection. Now I have Silver, Gold, Crude, 6E (euro), TF loaded and all seem to be doing pretty much exactly the same thing. Maybe bonds and grains are different? But I think it's a little weird they way they are tracking each other almost bar for bar.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #191 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Trades List. Stopped for day. Did well in several markets using Tick charts on Gold and Silver trades, 5 min on the others.

Idea behind playing around with several markets is just to give the rules a bit of a workout by picking any setup that is legal and placing an order even though am not following that market closely.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #192 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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A nice skew trade in ES. In reality I would never have the patience for this. But I find it more interesting to explore new ideas by doing than just reviewing charts and unfortunately lack the programming skills in Ninja to test them out as strategies. (In Tradestation could write them out in about 5 minutes.)

Note how the PT was just above the PVP at time of initiating what was an L2 after negative skew flip (shown in the indy). Stop was a bit above the current market high. #2 put on a couple of ticks below the high with same target. Took 90 minutes (very slow market) but worked perfectly.

I'm telling ya: those PVP's are worth watching!



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #193 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Ninja platform a mess today in early going.

Played with the Wiz's 1 tick chart method (using 5 ticks in Crude) and had about 5 winners in a row in about 10 minutes netting 20 ticks. Interesting. Then had to reboot and the data would not reload properly, could not refresh the database so followed Crude after 9.30 and nothing I did was official. It's a day off. Last weekday of the lunar calendar year.

Hope to finalise trading plan over the weekend in time for the New Year (my New Year's resolution though I didn't bother to point out that my New Year is Feb 14!). The connection seems reliable enough although there are still small timeouts from time to time and I cannot watch streaming video for mysterious reasons. But the data feed works great and that's what matters.

Will emphasise rules that I can control in the plan, less about entry rules since I am a very discretionary type, and more about money management, which includes break-even, recovery rules when underwater, daily goals, weekly goals, behavior routines, and recording/feedback routines so that using the plan and journal yields better information and helps with the journey. There is an aspect of muddle to everything I am and have been doing that needs to be clarified. And this is why I have had a hard time writing out a plan as well. Part of me likes to just wing things. But I have learned that this just doesn't work, even with 65% or better win-loss ratios. Have to maintain my own style and character but develop the means to get clearer on what I am doing in order to make steady income.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Markets extremely slow today so nothing so far. Did not work on finalising plan over the weekend, rather took time off. Hope to work on plan later today, and/or if markets pick up will continue Sim-account trades.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Pic attached which will be appended to Trading Plan. Examples of signals from Friday session. Guess it was a holiday today but didn't show up on my calendars.



Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #196 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Feb 16

Tried writing out signals on chart as in example above. This meant I couldn't track in SS so have simply attached Trade Results from NT instead. Other problem is that it only shows entries, which on many levels are not so important as how trade is managed after entry, but that would make an already too busy chart even busier, not to mention being almost impossible to display clearly.

Difficult session, partly because of basically choppy market which I could have avoided by and large altogether, and partly because my PT's were too large for such a choppy market meaning I was not fully tuned in. I did wait before placing first trade at least 15 mins, but need to add another criteria in terms of being in the zone or not. Suspect I need to add in a morning routine before opening up the computer and will attempt to try this tomorrow.

Had many BE trades with >. 6 ticks profit. In retrospect, if had just taken little bites steadily would have been DONE quite quickly. As it was, went $185 underwater and then caught the first extended move, exiting on volume hesitation at a price which ensured full recovery. Then made a couple of small trades to meet DPT, although the last double was illegal. At this point my concentration was off and I either should have stopped for the day with $36.00 just below minimal DPT, or waited and come back later.

The process of nailing down the rules and drawing them out, though, is helpful, even if a little messy visually. It helps me keep the rules in mind and also displays live (when I draw them) how they look then (which only I know) and then after subsequent price action you see how they did, but also how they look after the fact.

The main challenge now is to pay more attention to the overall market behavior, i.e. is it narrow and choppy or moving nicely. The skew indicator is surprisingly helpful with his even though I am not using it yet for trading, just monitoring. Made an alteration to it this morning so that the bands are printed at the price they would be if the indy was displayed on the chart, i.e. above/below the PVP. I don't plan to put it on the main chart, but it might be nice to see the inner bands around the PVP to monitor if this is a good way of paying attention to choppy conditions and ranges around the PVP.

All in all a good day, even though too many trades and it took a long time. Seem to be coming through a muddled phase after getting high speed and looking at some more live-updating indies which I have now essentially rejected except for EDS price bars which give good granularity in terms of recent prices where there has been particularly heavy volume. Whether this information is truly helpful or not, is another question, but I do like being able to see it.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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 cclsys 
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Feb 17

Worst day in a long time. 6 loser one BE. Doing everything wrong and although intention was to follow my new rules, in retrospect I didn't really at all. Furthermore, am not sure why and have to reflect on what was going on mentally.

Took more time to prepare including new more spacious morning routine before opening up computer. Yesterday uninstalled and (though I ) scrubbed NT from computer and did fresh install only adding back in minimal personal indies to get rid of all the endless log errors. That worked, but to my surprise all my ATM strategies survived, and other settings. Don't know where. The main Program Directory was erased. Also the MyDocs/NT6.5 folder was erased. So that info is stored somewhere else. Maybe in the data file which I re-imported? Anyway:

There is commentary on each trade with stats in the attached SS so no point duplicating here. Part of the problem today was that the 30 min chart was so clearly bullish that I was unable to accept the bearish turn in the market. It may well end up up on the day, but in my timeframe that is irrelevant. Also, if I keep trading the long side only will probably make up half the losses or more, but well exceeded daily max loss limit (10% = $500) and so am DONE.

One improvement here, despite learning pain muddles with trying to get very clear on rules etc. (trading plan is basically done now finally but I am not yet ready to implement, hopefully very soon), is that I do have a better take on reading when I am off kilter. As was the case today.

It seems necessary for me to pay more attention to trend so I added colors to the Vwap and MA in the CCLBands indy, and also added the vwap into the indy so they all have same starting time controlled by same input. But then, of course, I simply ignored this today. So hopefully that is a lesson well learned!

I don't think this has anything to do with it, but I have an extremely wicked cold and the medications for cough etc. are making me a little whoozy, although not noticeably so. Also, because eyesight has been deteriorating rapidly past few months (middle age) to the point where I now need reading glasses at the computer whereas only 2 months ago I had no problem seeing it at all and only used them for reading books. I also have a hard time seeing things clearly that are less than about six feet away (versus previous one foot). And because I have been drinking home brew (which is better and much cheaper than govt-controlled products here), decided to stop drinking for a while to see if that helps. Alcohol (and yeast) tax the liver which in turn weakens the eyes. So we'll see if they improve in the next few weeks. And last night (very good sleep despite cold), was first dry night in a while. But again, I don't think that had much to do with what happened today.




Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #198 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Tried to save CCLBands with colors. Can't do it. Even after re-installing there are tons of strange errors, like that Bollinger does not exist in the current context (it's a default indicator and the code compiles fine). So back to square one. Have to find out how to REALLY erase NT from the computer. Used Revo Uninstaller last night but apparently that's not enough.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #199 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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cclsys View Post
Tried to save CCLBands with colors. Can't do it....

try adding [XmlIgnore()] for your color, it tells system to ignore system color and use your color serializer instead.


 
Code
		 [XmlIgnore()]
		[Description("MiddleBandColor")]
        [Category("BandColors")]
        public Color MiddleColor
        {
            get { return middleColor; }
            set { middleColor = value; }
		}

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  #200 (permalink)
 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Thanks Cory. The errors are not to do with that, though. For example in one indicator it says the reference to Bollinger is incorrect. Even though any reference to Bollinger in that indy has been commented out!

In my Bands indicator it says the reference to DValueAsh is incorrect. DValue Ash compiles fine. So does the bands.

I have a small number of indies which work. I cannot export. That's not a big deal since I can backup with text. But it means that I shall have even less to do with programming. Spent an hour or so very thoroughly uninstalling NT. Checked through the registry. Backed up old indies on external drive which was unplugged during re-install. As soon as I import any of my indies - just the ones I use recently - the same errors as before. NT support cannot offer any assistance. So I guess I am just stuck with a functional trading platform but certain limitations that are not fixable without investing tens or even hundreds of hours to figure out.

Not worth it!

This all started when I changed the hvwap indy start times from "settings" category to "Parameters" in the Properties section. I have deleted hvwap but my substitute with a new name has the same thing. I wonder if that is screwing everything up? I don't see why that would have anything to do with the Bollinger message which is truly weird and not explainable.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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