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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #171 (permalink)
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Feb 8

Am in a bit of a muddle right now. Because have highspeed have been monitoring Gomi's indies, in particular the Volume Profile but also CDHA and the vwap, the CDHA being very accurate I find, a rare combination of smoothing and timeliness whilst being mainly based on volume input (delta). But since the Gomi VP and the DValue VP are often giving different readings, esp. in terms of the PVP/POC price, I am getting confused. Also Gomi's indies seem to require far more processing.

At the same time, all these super-simple 5-minute BM style charts with bands sported by very competent traders here on the forum are finally getting to me. There is something so tempting about just having the price bars and a moving average and a slower timeframe which weeds out a lot of noise whilst providing multiple setups. I have also noticed that SR-P levels on the 5 minute charts are often very accurate, more consistently so often than tick charts.

I thought I was settled with my workspace for a while with Dvalue basically. Then I added EDS Vol-Price bars which provide excellent on-bar-update volume granularity showing the key prices in the recent past. But if you change anything on the chart, you lose all the plots and I find that very irritating although in theory once I settle down with a workspace again I won't need to change things. Probably I should just run 2-3 workspaces in the same instrument at once, or have several different chart templates in the same workspace so I don't have to make changes. But the whole thing is complicated and I am looking for simplicity.

So today changed the workspace to have a BM-type 5 min chart on the right and a Volume-Profile type 366 chart on the left in order to compare them minute by minute and either decide on one or perhaps always work with two since they do give different information and when that information converges I suspect it makes for a clearer read for my mainly SR methods. Have taken off DValue to reduce noise but kept the DValue PVP as a white dash plot to compare with the Gomi Volume Histograms which are more accurate tick by tick.

Glossary: SR = Support Resistance; SR-P = SR pattern level (where a new move took off); SR-R = SR retrace, i.e. a retrace to previous and now broken SR level; PVP/POC = PeakVolumePrice/PointOfControl or PriceOfControl where most volume traded at that price during the current session.

Trading:

for some reason woke up very early after not much sleep but after a couple of hours of trying to decide on a basic workspace/template and not being able to, focused on the Gold market for a while and then started trading in SIM.

Trade#1: a fully legal lower low SR BO down. Did not move very fast after entry so put PT just above PDL (Previous Daily Low) which I can see nicely on a minute chart thanks to the CMI Daily Pivots (which don't work on tick charts, another irritation).

Trades #2 and #3: both semi-legal but according to new trading plan not legal. So the first one as soon as I realised this was not legal, exited for 1 tick. 5-6 were possible as it turned out.

#3 was one where there was visible resistance both on the volume histograms (which started re-drawing at session-start at 8.20 and are no longer visible on the attached pic - another irritation!) and the 5 min where I tweaked entry based on vol resistance near a good SR-P (ray drawn). However, immediately after entry I realised that this was against the rules. Why? Because I don't take SR-P's 'naked' (i.e. without subsequent pattern entries) against the trend and the trend had just changed to up basis closing above a rising MA on the 5 min, or closing above a (slightly) rising vwap on the 366. So I exited that one too which was a good thing since it went up much further as soon as I exited.

So two trades in a row NOT following the rules but at least I exited as soon as I realised this.

#4 is interesting. I did not mark the triangle on the tick chart. (I don't want to enable the trade markers because then I will lose the EDS vol price bars - another irritation!). This one is an optional but legal trade. There was extremely high volume support just above the #5 SR sell level, so I place an order to buy 4 ticks above where the volume was light in the DOM with the stop-reverse 2 ticks below the current DL. It took a couple of tries with mkt going up 5-6 ticks and coming back down to entry, then third time went down to within 2 ticks of stop/reverse looking like it was going to be a loser but then bounced strongly up and bagged the default 15 tick PT.

#5 - an order placed long before finally filled, another standard SR BO down LL sell. Placed the PT just above the MP value area from Friday and slightly larger than default 15 tick PT. After entry (got a 2 tick better than entry order price in SIM) it bounced back up by only 1 tick and then worked its way down for a little while and then suddenly plunged about 10 ticks in a second at which point the PT was filled.

So 5 trades, 2 illegal and BE+, 3 legal and decent winners. DONE. $408.00 = 8% on the day in about 75 minutes.


This week I am determined to push through current confusions and emerge by the New Year (Feb 14) with a clear plan and clear workspaces. The connection seems reliable although for some reason I often can't stream video clips (another irritation). So now after monitoring last week after the antenna was sited higher up on the property I know I have a workable connection, all that is left is to finalise the plan which is 90% there. Writing it was hard for some reason, but even harder is internalising it. I am going to print it out and have it in front of me for a few days.

The rules are very similar to what I have been doing here in the journal with a few tightening-up modifications, the main ones being

a) not trading countertrend unless X
b) taking 'naked' SR-P's only in direction of trend and only at identifiable vol S/R using the histograms or current bid/offers in the DOM/Jstats. There is nothing wrong with identifying an SR-P or SR-R level and then waiting for a pattern to trigger entry.
c) definition of trend which is really simple: if using a vwap chart it is price above rising vwap = bull, same in reverse for bear. Or if using a Collective Band chart, same but basis the middle MA.
d) a newly developed entry is based off the PVP using it in the same way as an SR-P or SR-R, i.e. a retracement level (never a breakout level). And with this again, waiting for pattern confirmation to enter is fine depending on the volume situation, i.e. if volume isn't saying anything clear around the PVP as price approaches on a pullback, wait for a pattern. If it is, can take it. Again, in direction of trend only unless CT conditions met.

CT conditions: mainly lifted from Brooks which is indicator-free approach: Clear move (say up for example), then combination of broken trendline and two sell patterns (L2). Have not decided if should count the L1 and L2 after the trendline break or if just need all three to confirm CT situation. For me also I like to see price at some sort of SR or SR-P or PVP flip or SR breakdown etc. but if the L2 looks good and there is reasonable R-R can take the L2 as it is, and now especially if the GomCDHA has also turned bearish. Same in reverse for bull CT. Why have CT? Because markets often rotate and churn and waiting for clear trend situation sometimes takes an hour or two and if I wait that long usually I fail to pull the trigger when the setup finally comes along because I don't trust it somehow. I have seen this again and again and it is just how I am.

Will attach SS later (not yet filled out).

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #172 (permalink)
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Example of CounterTrend setup which occurred whilst typing in the above: Have marked trendline on tick chart on left, then placed arrow lines on both tick and 5 min chart to show entry points. Tick chart was earlier but that is not surprising since the 366 (neolithic nr.!) is about a 2-3 minute bar time chart versus the 5 min on right.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #173 (permalink)
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Basis the 30 min chart, if this CT move puts in a bottom, I expect mkt to retrace to 1090 level = VaT from Thursday, i.e. about $2000 per contract.
If not and new lower lows, then probably down to 1054 level = last PVP and also Vab from Friday.


We'll see.

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #174 (permalink)
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A trade I don't like but took because a clear 5 min L2 in downtrend. Would prefer to see further downside action away from volume congestion. But as I type, already 10 ticks profit and stop to BE+.... PT hit, another $245.00

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'

Last edited by cclsys; February 8th, 2010 at 10:55 AM.
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  #175 (permalink)
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Rule 1 for this week to work on: 15 minutes before first trade.
Rule 2: no experimentals until officially DONE.

Forgot about #2 so posting that here to keep track of myself tomorrow.

Meanwhile, nice simple article on long term situation viz. Gold:

A Stern Reality Check for Gold Naysayers | The Daily Gold

Of special interest, this picture:

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #176 (permalink)
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Feb 9

Worst day in a long time. Woke up very clear about rules and how to get trading plan into something useful. Then had 7 losers and 1 marginal winner. Details on trades in the SS. Suffice to say that it has been a trading range type day thus far and I was not using trading range type techniques and even when I 'twigged' to this, did not follow through being already seriously underwater. -9% / -$445.2.

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The first chart shows the situation when I was ready to trade, which is shortly after the 8.20 day session open. Took a breakout to the upside since in an uptrend which didn't work at all (and that level was not a true SR since basically just a short-term cluster around the opening time), then took a breakout sell which also didn't work, CT because so far above YC about 10 full points lower. That didn't work. In retrospect, this conflicted scenario right at the beginning of the day-session might have been regarded as a good indication of how things were going to play out. The market did work its way down the next two hours, but in trading-range type fashion which I failed to perceive clearly.

Irony of the day: being much more clear on rules and why to have them and how to fashion them, results were terrible!

Did follow the rule about waiting 15 mins.
Did follow the rule about no SIM trades before Officials.

However: was not really 'in the zone' when I started because the market seemed muddled to me. I should have trusted this and waited but was trying to 'follow the rules'. This produced another insight about rules backing up one from yesterday: the most important rules are not about entries, exits and money management, i.e. trading tactics, rather how you trade, what the overall daily parameters are in terms of profit goals and max loss in the context of an account strategy. So now I think I am ready to go to the trading plan and re-write it so that it becomes a helpful process-plan in actual trading campaign.

The trap with the plan/rules is to regard them as external realities, like walls, roads, doors, bridges etc. The real rules are internal rules about how to conduct battle, not how to wield the sword in hand-to-hand combat (the tactics). So despite this being a disastrous day, I think something is glimmering through the fog here.

Chart Notes: the trades are shown on the 5 min chart (attached) even though I still favor the tick chart. But I am comparing them. Also helpful to see how trades taken using the tick chart look on the 5 min. The 5 min is looking better, but then it would on a bad day like this. Also of interest: the 5 min chart shows several clear swings, all of them of short duration, and remarkably little barbed wire. The shorter-term tick chart is more messy (not shown).

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Attached Thumbnails
Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-0209-aj-ss.png  
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  #177 (permalink)
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Took time this morning. Have expanded the 15-min rule to 30 mins including various other things like morning tea/coffee, ablutions etc. Might also add in a meditation period before turning on computer because once I do that, tend to settle into it quickly.

So this is a journal entry record that today I kept that rule.

#2: early rule: no SIM /Play trades before 'officials'. In live trading (soon), this means no SIM trades before REAL trades, so the rule will be the same.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #178 (permalink)
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Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Excerpt from Sun Tzu:

Chaos is indeed a great challenge for the general.....

"Chaos is born from order.
Cowardice is born from bravery.
Weakness is born from strength."

Chaos and order are two aspects of the same thing. Together they constitute the totality of our experience., the good and bad, the confusion and clarity - how it is all interconnected and constantly shifting. From the smaller perspective, we experience these as opposed. But in order to 'take the whole' [ the goal of the accomplished General acc. to Sun Tzu] the sage commander must work with this totality. He resides in the fundamental orderliness of the chaos, and thus for him,

"The fight is chaotic yet one is not subject to chaos." (Ch. 5).

Although chaos is generally a difficult and uncomfortable time, it is also dynamic, a time of great openness and creativity. The sage commander develops an appreciation for its potent quality. Since he holds no fixed position, chaos is not a threat. He is not undermined by uncertainty. Rather than giving i to the impulse to control chaos when it arises, the sage commander rests in the chaos and allows it to resolve itself.

This trust resembles conventional patience, in that the sage commander refrains from action. Yet rather than an act of forbearance, it is a matter of letting things happen in their own time. It is withdrawing from the smaller skirmishes to allow a greater victory to ripen.

"When it has rained upstream, the stream's flow intensifies.
Stop fording. Wait for it to calm." (Ch 9).

p 105. The Denma Translation Commentary to the Text

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'

Last edited by cclsys; February 10th, 2010 at 12:13 PM.
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  #179 (permalink)
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Feb 10 8.48.
Waited for clear (SR LL Sell) setups which featured 3-day trendline break on the 30-min chart, but then was far too tight with BE stops, not following rules. Expecting the market to do what I want because I am in clear state of mind about what's going on. Hubris/Control.

Two BE trades instead of one 5% winner (27 ticks).

(Summary later after trading session completed.)

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Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
Reply With Quote
 
  #180 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received


9.30:

Having another very bad day. It seems that having 366 and 5 min together is counter-productive. It is worth studying, and needs to be studied live, but it is also conflicting focus and how I read the market. Many BE trades and a couple of losers. Going for larger profits to make up for yesterday but also because there are valid lower targets, so not taking smaller profits. If had done so, would be up versus down $200.00.

This is part of finalising the rules and working with them strictly is a bit of a head game right now further complicating matters.

Will try to recover today's losses before quitting for the day and then need to reconsider what I am doing right now.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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