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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #141 (permalink)
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Jan 24

Very busy past few days and out of the house. Did do morning sessions Thursday and Friday but had to run before updating them. So here is belated entries for the record with whatever pics etc. I put together before leaving and this morning catching up.

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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-0121-aj-gcam.png   Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-0122-aj-gcam.png   Daily Charts, Bar Patterns-bm-0122-aj-ss.png  
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  #142 (permalink)
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Jan 25

Nice early start but contrary to resolution before opening up, put on trade quickly soon after charts loaded. Very clear setup, however I really should take more time to get in the zone before entering the first trade.

Clear downtrend; SR BO down (lower low sell); instant minimal DPT hit, did not react quickly enough to move stop to BE so put on a double with #2 at SR-P and 7 ticks below PVP; mkt went almost to PVP then sold off making new lows. #2 PT hit, #1 exited on strong buy volume for a few ticks. DONE.

Rules: am still in 2 minds about putting on doubles with this size account. Did not move stop to BE+ on #1 quickly enough because not yet ready to trade. Apart from that managed them well for 4% gain in about 10 minutes. 25% grade.

Of note on chart: have marked ellipse where positive skew flip occurred. Provided good low-risk aggressive CT buy entry on breakout of the bars which followed, in particular the 2 whose equal highs were only 2 ticks above the PVP. It seems to me just from daily observation that this flip is often an accurate and fairly early indication that at the very least a decent CT bounce might be in the offing and/or not a good time to put on addition trades in direction of trend until there is a convincing leg in that direction again, preferably to new LL's (or HH's) after which pullbacks can be taken.

NOTE: on review realise I marked the positive skew late. The actual flip happened 2 bars after the low of the day was in. Now THAT is timely/leading indicator type info. And again a nice pattern entry when mkt pulled back down to that new PVP same as example above but even better.

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There are more trades on the chart which don't count since DONE. (up to 8 contracts scaling in, terrible R-R, but 95% probability of profit when done this way. With large account this is the way I would trade much of the time.)

Also, there are too many indies on the chart right now but am following Cory's rolling Value Areas - to which I have added SR zones - along with Dvalue. I would prefer just one indicator that
a) shows the ValueHistogram
b) the rolling PVP and Value Areas
c) the previous MP shaded like Cory's.

Makes it easier to manage. Still waiting for some kind soul to make a callable rolling vwap or start-time vwap so I could have a good skew indicator and see if it is helpful which I suspect it would be.

Also have the Fib bands up today which are really not necessary but just happened to be there. I find I don't pay any attention to most MA-type lines on a chart so for me it doesn't make much difference if they are loaded or not, but the picture definitely is too busy!



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Last edited by cclsys; January 25th, 2010 at 11:39 AM.
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  #143 (permalink)
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Here is a snap of Cory's rolling package on a 5 min chart. Note how support came in right at Friday's MP value area. This is very good information with minimal visual noise and I think I could manage with just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine.

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  #144 (permalink)
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cclsys View Post
Here is a snap of Cory's rolling package on a 5 min chart. Note how support came in right at Friday's MP value area. This is very good information with minimal visual noise and I think I could manage with just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine.

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cclsys,

Do you trade on the breakout from the RED dash line ? Is this RED dash line the POC on "CalculateDevelopingValueArea", which is set to "Solid-->Square" on Cory's template, but which you seem to have set to "Solid-->dash ?

Lolu

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  #145 (permalink)
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Lolu, if you go through my comments daily you can get some idea of how I use the PVP. Yes, in my chart the PVP/POC is the red dashed line.

Rarely do I use it for breakouts. Think what is the PVP? It represents the price at which there has been the most volume. On the green horizontal VolumePrice histogram there is usually a D formed around the PVP, i.e. it is one price in the middle of many others where there has been high volume. Now this is partly a distortion due to the way the histogram is calculated: after the close of the bar the volume for that bar is equally distributed to each price in that bar, i.e. if 100 volume and 10 ticks range, then each tick in that bar is assigned 10 volume in the histogram. In reality (like with a live-updating indy like Gom's and others), most of the volume might have happened at one particular price. That said, I have tracked the dValue with Gom and find that dValue is usually 'right' within a few ticks and most of the time the volume ends up being pretty evenly distributed so the histogram looks pretty much the same.

In any case, the point is: the PVP is not generally a good breakout level because it's in the middle of a high-volume zone, i.e. where most people (right now) think fair market value is to be found.

So I tend to use it as a target or a pullback entry level.

Target: if the market went up but the PVP is still way below and a correction back down begins, there is a decent chance that the market will at least try to get back to the old PVP.

Pullback: if it does get back to PVP and that is a support level using other methods and or there is clear volume support (i.e. many more buyers than sellers around there), I might use it for a pullback entry 'naked' or watch closely for a buy pattern to develop at which point this support level is 'confirmed'.

Something like that.

I find that Cory's PVP and the dValue PVP are not the same even with the same session time settings. I wish this were not the case. Haven't had time to inspect the code to try to figure out why.

I think his rolling option (not shown in charts above) is excellent and will track this now for a few days.

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  #146 (permalink)
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Jan 26

Fairly early start but once again pulled trigger too quickly. This is mainly a SIM problem. In live trading I usually have the opposite problem: waiting too long for ideal setups which hardly ever happen.

Trade #1 was PVP support, countertrend. Did not bounce as expected after entry and exited for BE+.

#2,3,4: shorts in downtrend. Quick winners. One had 10 ticks heat and had order to sell #2 a few ticks higher than it got to; rest had almost no heat. Had narrow targets in case market was just easing down versus cascading. In 20 minutes 4.4%. DONE.

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Highspeed connection down today (again). Rain this time. It is not working well. When it is good it is good with 25 ms latency. But there are technical issues with the tower on the one hand (it seems) and also I am poorly sited in a hollow surrounded by trees and although only 1.8 km from the tower, perhaps will need to have antenna mounted on minitower of my own. The company is extremely hard to work with, doesn't believe in communicating with customers on any level of detail, won't allow the client to touch the equipment, has been over 10 days since said they would come out to check the tower and my installation etc. etc.

Upside: on bad weather days I can't trade.
Downside: I live on a maritime island where bad weather is the norm, not the exception.

Oh well....

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  #147 (permalink)
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  #148 (permalink)
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Here is same GCam chart with Cory's rolling values set to rolling timeframe versus session-start timeframe. Very different-looking chart just from changing this one indicator. Now it has 8 hour rolling sessions making for very smooth SR zones from the Value Areas (30-70% volume traded during that period). I like it and will keep it up this way from now on.

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  #149 (permalink)
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Yeah, Mike, I am now thinking of it too. But not this winter. Also have to give them a little time to learn the ropes. We are the first province/State in North America trying to give everyone access to high speed so it is being delivered to remote areas with rugged terrain and low population. I suspect in my case it's a combination of poor site location and glitches with setting up the tower. Also lazy antenna installers who refused to go up on the roof to find the strongest signal because it was so strong on the ground they just screwed it into the side of the building. I begged them to go on the roof but they told me that my signal was so strong down there that if they mounted it higher I would be taking bandwidth away from others. Which is a total lie and so I have asked the company never to send such liars to my house again! Additional variable/irritant to a situation that might prove hard to resolve if the company doesn't get on the ball with it. Which they might not.

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  #150 (permalink)
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cclsys View Post
Lolu, if you go through my comments daily you can get some idea of how I use the PVP. Yes, in my chart the PVP/POC is the red dashed line.

Rarely do I use it for breakouts. Think what is the PVP? It represents the price at which there has been the most volume. On the green horizontal VolumePrice histogram there is usually a D formed around the PVP, i.e. it is one price in the middle of many others where there has been high volume. Now this is partly a distortion due to the way the histogram is calculated: after the close of the bar the volume for that bar is equally distributed to each price in that bar, i.e. if 100 volume and 10 ticks range, then each tick in that bar is assigned 10 volume in the histogram. In reality (like with a live-updating indy like Gom's and others), most of the volume might have happened at one particular price. That said, I have tracked the dValue with Gom and find that dValue is usually 'right' within a few ticks and most of the time the volume ends up being pretty evenly distributed so the histogram looks pretty much the same.

In any case, the point is: the PVP is not generally a good breakout level because it's in the middle of a high-volume zone, i.e. where most people (right now) think fair market value is to be found.

So I tend to use it as a target or a pullback entry level.

Target: if the market went up but the PVP is still way below and a correction back down begins, there is a decent chance that the market will at least try to get back to the old PVP.

Pullback: if it does get back to PVP and that is a support level using other methods and or there is clear volume support (i.e. many more buyers than sellers around there), I might use it for a pullback entry 'naked' or watch closely for a buy pattern to develop at which point this support level is 'confirmed'.

Something like that.

I find that Cory's PVP and the dValue PVP are not the same even with the same session time settings. I wish this were not the case. Haven't had time to inspect the code to try to figure out why.

I think his rolling option (not shown in charts above) is excellent and will track this now for a few days.

cclsys,

Thanks for the details. I'd expected that you're going to continue with "just these 2 indicators and nothing else just fine". I already have just those two indies (i. e. MPValues and CalculateDevelopingValuesArea) and they look very good and interesting on my SbSRenko chart. The POC is the purple dash line. Have a look at today's EURUSD chart.

Lolu

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