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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns
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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #131 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
cclsys's Avatar
 
Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Jan 14 & 15.

Yesterday had long trip to purchase new old 1988 Mercedes 450 Sel. Best deal I have ever gotten on a car ever, although too soon to be sure. Smooth as dairy cream on the highway. Corners tightly. Cannot hear the V8 engine when driving. 23 mpg (but I only drive a few times a month so mileage not an issue for me). Very nice car. Last of the generation of Benz's that were basically hand-made, or factory-made I should say, versus assembled from parts from all over the world as is the current system. Totally different level of quality all round. Cost me less than 1/50th of price when new. So tired but happy.

Jan 14: put on a trade in the am before leaving whilst getting ready. A simple pattern BO using Schapiro effect (buying high penetration of down bar in uptrend). Worked great.

Jan 15. 2 trades back to back although I did not place entry order for second quickly enough since didn't see the PVP fade setup until after the fact.

Explained well in SS and obvious on the chart. Well, first one not so obvious: but there is a thick dotted line showing an identified SR level (which didn't turn out to be super-accurate) bolstered by the C shape in the VolumeProfile. As I type now, that exact price has become the dynamic PVP so maybe I was right and the market was wrong?!

After 7 ticks heat and almost stopped out 1 ticks below a previous pullback minor sr, off to the races and fairly quick winner. If held could have made more since went beyond modest PT around confluence of vwap, old RL, just beneath SR-Ps and up to 1 tick beneath the PVP.

Last trade was late entry on retrace to PVP-2 entry, filled then instant win in 15 seconds.

Rules: 100% EXCEPT did not notice a report, so 50% for carelesness. Was too absorbed in price action.

On all three trades:

MAE: -75$
MFE: $155
MFE2: $800 (if not taken PT and max possible profit for statistical gathering purposes)
P/L: $155, 115, 85 = $355.

Net P/L since 11/20: $4271 = 85%.
% profitable = 73%
Avg P/L per trade: 4.1.

Stats are good in SIM.

Now time to finish up trading plan this weekend and begin to implement very soon thereafter. Will probably practice for 2-3 days with plan in effect to ensure it seems right. Then must just start pulling trigger in REAL again with 22ms latency connection which seems to be working well. Have tested with a few live orders away from the market and the entries go up instantly, and exits also take less than one second versus far slower on dialup previously. So that is very good.

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  #132 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, NS
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: TF,S,GC
 
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Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Jan 18

Gold very slow so switched to Crude. Slow also but stayed with it anyway. Main priority this week is to monitor the new highspeed service for continuity/reliability whilst finalising trading plan. Hope to resume live trading next week but might take longer.

Details of the trades are in the SS but basically trading towards current or previous PVP's. #2 trade had 2 tick risk after initial winner. First trade had larger risk and was prepared to enter a second near the previous PVP and exit at BE but didn't happen. The PT was 3 ticks above a previous PVP and 1 tick above an SR-P from that level (not drawn). Good judgment on PT as it turned out.

Of note: have marked an orange dot on chart on a dash line indicating roughly the time and price at which there was a sudden very large Buy Order (400+) compared to the 5-30 in all other areas in the DOM. The line shows how far to the left this order looked in Jstats histogram at the time (i.e. very large relative to the others). I have observed this in several markets and nearly always it seems this buy (or sell) can be faded. I have no idea what they are since they are always placed away from current bid-offer and pulled before price approaches the order and they generally last for only a second or two at most. Some sort of flash trading algo thing I suspect. In any case, that order gave confirmation (for me) of the short trade and sure enough, after a few more minutes, it traded through that price to the PT which at first held to the tick, then later was penetrated by one tick, then there was a bounce back up which was my Trade#2.

Net P/L on the day: $121.2 = 2.4%
MAE: 3 ticks = $35.00
MFE: 8 ticks = $75.00





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  #133 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
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some pivot ideas to go with with vwap marketgauge.com/jumpstart/

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  #134 (permalink)
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Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Thanks Cory.

Jan 19.

Took several trades early but did not obey my rules at all. Am not focused. Too much going on with new internet connection, new car, ordering parts etc. etc. Made money but did so by scaling in with 4 contracts which, although possible, is not 'legal' in terms of my rules.

There was one good lesson:

Trade #1: tightened stop to BE to reduce chance of early drawdown. Hit. But a good decision in line with general approach the first 1-2 trades.

Trade #2: the lesson: the entry was fine based on PVP work though without confirming pattern. It was quite possible mkt would move higher but a stop above previous swing high would have been -14 ticks which is above my usual stop limit. So originally had a second order 3 ticks below the swing high and then decided I shouldn't be doing that and tightened stop to current RH +2 at -5 ticks which was hit. What I should have done was not tighten that stop so quickly before there was a favorable move, i.e. to BE versus to -5 so soon after entry. But I was doing other things at the same time on internet which is TOTALLY against the rules but because I now have medium speed (not high speed really) am stressing the system a little to see what it can handle, so everything is a little experimental right now.

For this reason, although did make money (2%) am not counting any of it in the SS track record.

But the chart is posted as part of ongoing public record, so to speak.

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  #135 (permalink)
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Well, I watched 3 mins of video and it was all daily charts with moving averages. Didn't get to any part with day-trading or vwap.

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  #136 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
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skip to middle of it, she has 3 day pivot high and low.

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  #137 (permalink)
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Thanks: 248 given, 379 received

Jan 20

Despite early and unscheduled consultant meeting, was more focused this am although not yet there. Having problems with Ninja which won't load certain instruments properly. Perhaps something I am doing with linking with color codes and having same codes in different workspaces. Never really worked with multiple workspaces before because of dialup limitations. But cannot get CL to load at all today except in Feb contract which seems to be the older one now.

In any case, GC market was fairly clear. Downtrend. Details of trade are in the SS comments.

Basically looking for reasonable places to short in downtrend although did not wait for ideal levels with lowest risk and was willing to double up. This is something I have to get chrystal clear on in trading plan and am not there yet. Part of me thinks I should have tight initial stops, even as tight as 5-6 and be willing to take a few losers and get that back with one winner. Part of me wants to be more generous depending on the situation, i.e. in a clear strong trend, expand the stops and take doubles (not triples with this size account) and up to $3-400 risk combined; in choppy conditions, then tighter stops have to be used because larger PT's are unrealistic then so R-R needs to be managed more tightly.

Little explanation of #1 entry for those interested:

There was an old SR from 8.28 am (magenta bar) at 1123.4, followed by a an SR-P that happened much later at about 8.58 at 1123.2. I had order to sell at 1123.1 but mkt only retraced to 1123. But that was why I was willing to add another to position. Clear SR level at that price zone.

#2 a little later. With the PVP being where it was definitely above the current DL but really quite close, a test of that DL at the very least was highly likely before a trend change. So jumped on a sell signal at first pattern entry price, as it happened a little too soon. Could have waited for a second pattern Brooks-style before entering but worked well. After PT exit above LT SR basis 30-min chart, market sold down 5 full points in a minute, which I missed.

But two good trades today with net 7.8% return.

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  #138 (permalink)
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Am planning to look more closely at Cory's rolling Value Area. What I would really like (hint, hint!) is one indicator that shows both the rolling value areas and the price-volume histogram without painting the horizontal Value areas as is current the case. I might be able to substitute Cory's rolling VA's into the dValueArea indicator but it would probably be best to have it all written in one indicator.

There is a new version of DValue I downloaded from NT forum last night, but have not yet loaded it.

Also now have Jstats up but not sure if I want to keep it. A truly excellent indicator but not sure if looking at that volume is helpful or distracting/information overload. Also will monitor EDS Volume Bar to see if it provides significantly more granularity for short term SR helpful for trailing stops and adjusting PT's. Again, excellent indicator but not sure for same reasons.

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  #139 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Hi Ash,

Just wanted to pop in and say "thanks!", good job on the posts and journal, and keep it up. I really appreciate your commitment to the journal and the level of detail you share.

Has your trading improved as a result of this thread? My hope is yes, and I'm always trying to encourage others to start similar threads so they too can benefit. Thanks for being an inspiration to them.

Have you changed anything in your method as a result of this thread?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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  #140 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 607 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 248 given, 379 received


It has certainly helped, though perhaps hard to say precisely how.

Having to explain method has helped me clarify where I am clear about it and where not. It is also fun. But whether it's of value to anyone else to read someone nattering about their own method is something I cannot tell.

At same time, made very good progress incorporating volume into basic bar chart reading which finally allowed me to realise that I am a support-resistance trader more than anything else. I am not sure why, but the dynamic PVP development a few weeks ago put everything into place somehow and I feel there has been a leap forward and settling down at the same time. Yes, it's an indicator, but more of a simple fact that is worth seeing on the chart since the bars alone do not reveal that price level - nor do most market profile displays allow you to see the previous levels during the course of the day. It's the best indicator I have ever had by far bar none.

My favorite way of trading is to identify S/R levels and place orders there ahead of time. But I am not doing that because of money management etc. Nevertheless, that is how I see things and this journal has been a huge help in helping me to see how I have already been seeing - if you catch my drift. So now that I know that I am an SR trader, I can relax into that a bit more and suspect this will deepen my understanding of who I am and what sort of trades I look for and then from there be able to tighten the rules. I think part of my problem is that I have tried to apply longer-term, or maybe just trend-following, rules to my approach which actually doesn't really work with those criteria in the forefront. I just didn't see this before and have no doubt that publishing here on this journal has helped clarify all that. In fact, just writing this reply has helped clarify it much further!

I am still having a hard time putting together a trading plan, but given that I have only had the high speed connection for 3 trading days or so (and this morning it was down for a while so it is not quite stable yet - but I got a static ip out of that problem which is nice), it will be a little while before I get used to it, then finalise trading plan. Am distracted on the one hand, but also still not quite used to dynamic PVP yet and how I most intend to use those price levels. I know a trading plan is not just about tactics, but still: I have to get clear on the underlying approach; once I am, then can use plan to measure success/failure and set feasible goals and monitoring routines.

In terms of 'improvement in my trading', the rubber meets road when I get out of SIM. I never planned to spend more than a few weeks in SIM regrouping back in early October I think, but my dialup connection worsened, the highspeed looked like it was coming in any week (for several months!), and so here I am in late January and not yet ready.

I have been busy with several other things the past couple of weeks and not participating in the forum as much as earlier, but do intend to maintain the journal regularly as a discipline. Then when work through several other things and winter deepens, no doubt can be a better all-round contributor.

Once again, thanks for your forum!

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