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On opening up and having a chart in the Default workspace from late last night with Bands overlaid on VolumeProfile setup, saw hesitation at old SR and LowerBand3 (using adaptive 'lookback' bands which adjust based on recent Donchian ranges) and jumped in with 4 tick stop and 10 tick PT. Bailed out well above DPT ( +8 ticks = $75.00 = 1.5% ) as soon as hesitation in evidence. One minute trade. DONE.
Rules: entry was questionable. But overnight had used these bands and had 10 winners in a row so was feeling confident with them. ( Well, that is not quite accurate: I didn't really use the bands, per se, except around the Band3 levels which seem to do a good job of containing price action and therefore indicate that going against the current move might be a good idea. Most of the trades were typical SR-P's etc. albeit I did put on a few doubles if the first one took heat. It was a range-bound mkt so not hard to trade as long as didn't catch a big loser. And all in SIM so somewhat meaningless. )
The attached 1 min chart does not show that there were two tests at RL before my entry which was after the second test and on a pullback with only 0-1 tick heat, so felt fine about taking a CT trade with 4 tick stop since a good chance would be able to move to BE even if initial PT not hit.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Here is a good example of POC/PVP power. Had this buy order in from a while back, even before the swing low and bounce before this one. Nailed a good entry whilst I was typing the above. Tight trail stop was hit and then mkt continued up to SR-P PT level. My initial PT was 1155.4 and RH was 1155.5.
This dynamic PVP is, I think, the extra 'edge' in terms of a volume-based indicator that I was looking for for three months. Already I cannot imagine a chart without it and if I had to have only 1 indicator, that would be it. I could work even without price bars I think, although obviously they are very helpful!
In this case, this is the PVP from the previous session ( why it is a red dash line versus white dash line which is current dynamic PVP) which I have configured to begin and end around 6.00 am, i.e. the transition from overnight Asian-led positions to North American-led positions.
I feel like a huge fool. Just discovered something by accident: if you have dialup connection and use minute vs. tick charts there is no problem following just about any market. I always use tick charts. In Default workspace had minute charts up for some reason. This afternoon after meeting threw up ES just to see how much lag there would be since tomorrow will supposedly get highspeed and wanted to see the difference. I don't intend to trade ES but still, that's the BIG one volume-wise.
Well, waddya know: had no problem keeping up. Had 10 second lag for about 10 seconds around 4pm EST but apart from that was there tick for tick on time. Not only that, had a GC DOM in the background at same time which I didn't notice. And it was still keeping up.
This means that without any doubt running Tick Charts greatly stresses NT in some fashion since usually I get up to 3-5 minute lag on ES after running it for more than 10 mins because bandwidth just cannot keep up. In all my emails etc. with NT at the beginning, none of them ever mentioned this possibility and all kept thinking it was my connection and/or system resources etc.
I feel like a complete fool because for some reason I never tried following ZB/ES etc. with minute charts when I started having connection/speed issues a few months ago. I doubt anyone else on this board is using dialup, but if you are and like the 'big' markets: use minute charts!
Up early after good sleep. Pre-market slow but steady so nibbled.
#1. Nice setup with retrace to SR-P in downtrend with PT just above PVP. Agg trail stop hit for +2 then PT hit. Feel fine about agg trailx since intention is to reduce/eliminate initial DD in early going.
#2. Same again after another bounce up but with pattern entry. This one had poor R-R but the PT was modest and the closer you get to the PVP on a with trend trade as this was, the stronger its 'magnetic' pull. RL was 2 ticks beyond PVP+1 tgt (i.e. PVP-1) and then bounced again.
(Anything after the white vertical line is not counted in official results.)
Rules: with exception of poor R-R on #2, everything fine. But the R-R rule really is more of a general guideline than a rule, except that when recovering it becomes a hard rule in that the PT's are larger, R-R 1.5 or better and PT's are not lowered, only trailx raised after above BE level.
Method Comment: I am increasingly regarding the PVP's as magnets. In some situations they are magnets that attract price to them and in others they act as repellants in that price tends to bounce away from them and go off to find new levels. Small thought, but the dynamic PVP's have instantly become a core SR referent so am paying more attention to what happens around them than any other referent on chart. Previous day PVP's are often important as well, and of course previous day Highs, Lows etc.
Net P/L $71.69 = 1.4% MAE 4; MFE 7;
Total Net P/L since 11/20/2009: $3769 = 75%.
% profitable: 71%, which is improving.
Avg P/L per trade: 3.4 ticks net which is also improving even though I am shortening the targets of late to be DONE quickly.
I suppose the ideal number there would be 6 meaning that the average P/L per trade = the DPT but that would mean am taking many trades > DPT (which is the plan). I am not sure I want to make it a goal to reach that level since I agree with BM here and others that the best goals to set are ones that involve things you can control such as maintaining certain types of rules and behaviors. But clearly my results have improved the past few weeks and the stats are slowly but steadily showing that.
Chart: have bands drawn from previous day PVP. Not very helpful today perhaps, although they show that the day-session lurched downwards shortly after 6 am (so maybe I have picked a good starting time?). An idea I got from reading Buddha's thread to have them up this way during first hour or two after my session begins which is 6.00 am (for now). It seems to work in that by 8.20 you have a new day situation but it also has a little history and thus context so any PVP's, bands, MA's etc. have had a little time to get established before the official open at 8.20.
Also, experimenting with minute charts today even though about to have highspeed (supposedly) connected. Trying Perl's preferred 2-minute. I have noticed with Fib studies that usually the 50% and *2 are the best, i.e. 1/2 or *2, i.e. 2 is a nice number. So why not 2 minute? 1 minute seems a bit too short, 3 minutes is fine but sometimes slow especially around high volume turning points (which tick charts 'draw out' more effectively than time charts).
10.22: highspeed connection apptmnt cancelled for third time. They want you available all day long but only cancel halfway through the day of the apptmnt. Trip to purchase old Mercedes 4 hours away delayed for second time in a week because of these shenanigans! Getting one of the last hand-built Mercedes before they went into modern on-demand / outsourced parts mode in the late 80's early 90's. It's a monster of a car, far too big for my taste, but it has no rust (big deal around here) and the being hand-made thing really appeals. Cost $75,000 new in 1988. Will not reveal my purchase price but suffice to say: way under dinner for two at Maxim's in Paris.
Hopefully it will turn out to be a good deal even if I do feel a bit like a banker-cum-pimp - cum pretentious twat driving down pot-holed country roads in a vehicle that was the preferred for ambassadors and CEO's twenty years ago in a region that has been 'enjoying' steady population decline and a depression economy for over twenty years!
Upside: if they burgle my house because of the fancy car parked outside, at least I can move into the trunk which is large enough to set up an office apparently. Back seat is about the size of a double bed - or so someone on a forum said (no doubt tongue in cheek)!
Factoid: this old V8 power-quasi-limo gets 27 mpg on the highway (as long as you are not going much above 100 mph of course, which this thing was built to cruise at nice 'n easy).
Upside: if I slide off the road, it's the trees which will give way, not my bumpers.
Downside: might not be able to park it anywhere downtown!
Downside2: all the pimps and bankers will be after stealing it, and if I do have the office in the trunk then I'll be without home or car or office and find it hard to stick to my trading plan!
Cory will do if/when get highspeed today after 3 previous apptnmt cancellations.
Jan 13 am:
Up early after good sleep. For me it works best to have substantial dinner about 2 hours before retiring, it seems. Have not been eating well past three months and it is wearing me down so going to have to change that.
Started chart volume indies at 7 am this morning because that's when volume kicked in. Placed bands around previous day PVP. So shortly after opening up chart around 7.20 this configuration led to the perception that although a strong bull bounce in effect with potential to go back up towards 1150 level (we are in Daily TR between 1080 and 1150 although daily also looks like could be making a swing back up to 1200 level if 1150ish broken to upside). BUT: seeing some strong Selling Pressure coming into DOM (3-1 ratio for sellers to buyers) and seeing nice distance between current UpperBand3 level and Dynamic PVP, decided to play short side. Also a Daily Pivot level which I threw up yesterday since these work with time bar charts and not tick charts. I didn't use it consciously, but no doubt it had sub-conscious effect in terms of making that Band#3 seem more important. I don't usually use bands for trading, but am experimenting with them a bit more in first hour or so, which is also when I do 90% of my trading. Again, bands are based on previous day closing PVP.
Trade #1 was a quickie that doesn't count because in DOM I entered a 'Play' trade. It was what I call a 'Vol' trade in that there was pretty high volume at one price more than 5* volume in all other price fields. It's not a very reliable trade but works about 1 in 3 times at key areas. This was not a key area. It didn't work.
Trade #2 Then switched to 'Official' which means all trades are entered into SS. Basically did the same trade again but this time, as notes in SS explain and which the 2 minute bars do not show, there was far more confirmation, albeit not really from DOM volume. Just a retest-fail of the high, a probe down, then I entered on retrace with stop 2 ticks above RH for -4 ticks risk.
Target at first SR-R which happened to be a tick or two above rising vwap in short term bull move. If vwap falling in bear market might have gone for larger tgt. In any case, it worked fine. 1 tick heat, 15 ticks profit. Took a couple of minutes. DONE.
Trade #3 back in 'Play' mode so not in spreadsheet. The #2 trade took profits at SR-Retrace level, then #3 entered long in direction of trend at first SR-P retrace level. Now the line on the chart 2 ticks below this #3 entry is one I held over from yesterday because it seemed important. But the recent SR-P ( green doji bar which touched vwap and bounced 12 bars before #3 entry bar) is 2 ticks above that which is where I entered with 0 ticks heat and then 12 ticks profit. Nice. But doesn't count. Also 2 ticks above previous PVP which held for many bars. In early going the PVP changes around quite a bit since there is less historical volume to compare with and here we are still in the first hour after the counts were started at 7 am.
PT just below a quasi SR-P level which was also hit nicely but then market went higher up to actual SR-P level which has a Ray drawn up there.
In any case, only #2 counts.
MAE: 1 tick. MFE: 18
Exit +15 = $145.6 = 2.9%.
Net P/L since Nov 20 = $3914 = 78%.
% Wins: 72%.
Avg Trade: 3.8.
Looking at how the stats slowly change, it is clear that the old adage: 'keep losses small...' makes sense. I am leaning more towards taking 2-3 5 tick losers now than 1 - 2 12 tick losers. If I am right on the trade, can move stop to BE fairly fast and then it's mainly a matter of luck whether or not move continues or am stopped out. If wrong, then can take small loss and try again and can do that several times. Have not been wrong all that often of late (a phase which surely will pass as all such phases do) so have not had many stop-outs. The last one was Jan 4 and I took -17 on an iffy trade. Will not do that again because risk simply not worth the reward.
I would like this thread to be a gathering place for "indicator-free" traders, for sharing of toughts and discoveries, regarding this trading systems.
But still would like to hear from more indicator …
put together morning chart of Gold (though after Journal entry was following Crude) with some examples of what I look for when trading etc. It has all been covered before but a review doesn't hurt.
This is part of my making a trading plan in next week or so before resuming live trading with highspeed connection - if I ever get it!
On page 15 of above thread a post by Cunparis in response to FredyMegaG:
Touché my friend lool In my defence, i'd like to say that "indicator free" means not relying on indicators for entry or exit signals..
Exactly. I have them on my chart but it's price action, usually a HH or LL that is my entry. Indicators just tell me what's going on and when not to trade.
I have to say I agree completely with both remarks. So in coming up with a trading plan, I am also having to define my basic method.
Seems to me that what I do can be defined as 'trading support-resistance with applied money management.'
The only indicator I use apart from manually or mentally drawn SR levels is the dynamic PVP which is unmanipulated market data not otherwise visible on a price bar chart and acts as another form of SR, so even though it is an 'indicator', I don't regard it as such (like stochastic, moving average, sine wave etc.)
I should have taken the trade arrows off this chart but am too lazy to go back and do so. On the other hand it is good to keep them there because the two series it shows (early am and coming back after checking out Crude) also show that I don't really follow my own method even though I do use my own method for reading the market. Something to ponder.
There are comments on the chart and hopefully they are self-explanatory. If anyone has any questions/comments you/they are more than welcome.
That said:
Negative skew flip = when PVP flips to new price and the vwap is now underneath versus previously above it. Then we got a half-hearted test of current DH to the tick which immediately reversed. Now I am looking to go short.
Schapiro Sell is from Jerry Perl: the 'Schapiro Effect/Rule' is that if a trade is good this bar it should be good next bar. In practice it means that if you are looking to short, wait for an up bar then enter at low of the up bar. Simple. I also look for a nice SR-P level to short from higher up if I can get it. Often you can't, especially if a new move is about to break open.
In my 'method' - which also uses vwap not mentioned above in intro - trend is defined as:
In my defence, i'd like to say that "indicator free" means not relying on indicators for entry or exit signals..