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Daily Charts, Bar Patterns

  #111 (permalink)
 steve2222 
Auckland, New Zealand
 
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cclsys View Post
Yesterday re-tooled my RangeBarHighLow indicator to work properly with Renkos since I visited the MedianRenko thread and decided to take another look at them. I like Japanese things usually - although for some reason I still prefer OHLC to candles. Maybe I should try those hollow candles but I don't think I have them or have seen a download for them anywhere.

In any case, the RBHL works great with Renkos. The main reason I didn't ever look at them was not knowing where the highs/lows were going to be, but now that is fixed. Even the default Renkos are quite workable with this plotting feature. (attached uses Median Renkos). Next I would like to get it to work with PF but that will be harder.

Then I coded 'Ash rat' inspired by the TRO Rat thread which was closed but which contains some interesting information along with far too much fluff. Frankly, I got more from his attitude and use of statistics than any sense of clear method, though if I understand aright he basically uses average daily ranges to calculate when a possible low or high is in (and he only buys lows I think), and then after a bounce of X% of that daily range from the probable Daily Low, he buys any time there is a pullback and then a higher high, i.e. he buys up bars. Something like that. It makes a lot of sense and jives with several things I have been mulling over of late, principally sticking with one direction and not changing sides too often. If the longer term trend is up (or whatever criteria you use, say it's under Band 2 in a Fib Band type indicator), you buy and all you do is buy.

But in working with the Renkos and these ideas last night and developing the AshRat indicator which knows what the high or close of a Renko is going to be, it occurred to me that Range Bars, and especially Renkos, are like bars that visually display an ATM strategy, so working with them to train with MM I think could be extremely helpful. In fact, along with generally goofing off the next few days and hanging out with friends and drinking too much homebrew (I live in rural area remember!) I would like to build the current 'AshRat' into a money-management training indicator working on Range or Renkos during market replay or live Sim. I tried to do this with RatioSysBand indicator (in another thread somewhere) but the coding went above my paygrade.

In any case, here are two pictures. One shows at TRO (rat) indicator that basically buys HH bars once a low has been put in using something that is close to a 5 bar Donchian approach, or sells a LL once a high is in. It's not based on the Daily Range approach, just swing after swing.

I made the mistake of loading this with Renkos, which it cannot see well, and also did not realise that the 'rules' assumed by the indicator are to buy the buy trigger only when the close is above it, not as soon as it is hit. I think this is not the method, but it is how the indicator thinks, so working with Renkos in a rather fast - and unusually choppy - gold market this morning with a new indicator that I didn't understand was difficult. After an hour or so I was down $700. Then I switched to a Range Bar chart and understood its logic better and managed to get nearly all of it back, and then starting going under again as I was getting very tired. It's a fast-moving approach with 5-range bars - at least it was today.

At the same time, I was using my own indicator on a parallel 5 range chart (also attached) so that was a bit confusing. But I knew that would happen and after two hours am thoroughly familiar with both approaches and can work on them further in a more responsible fashion.

There was something very relaxing and simple about having such incredibly simple rules. No volume. No SR. Just simple price bars, the indicators just showing basic information about the bars.

Comparing Renkos and Range bars, clearly Renkos hold a trend longer. However, they can get very badly chopped. This is perhaps choosing bars that are too narrow for the market. But I personally need to work with about $100 stops for money management reasons. I think an account should be able to trade 1% risk per $10,000 = $100.00. So a 5-bar Renko has an 11tick $115.00 stop already, and a 5 range bar has a 7 tick $75.00 stop so that is what I prefer to research, at least for now. Using much larger ranges to determine trend makes perfect sense, but not for this sort of entry and exit money management training.

Because you know the range of the bars, you know your stop before the trade is entered and have a PT as well based on whatever RR ratio you want and then get a sense of what works and what doesn't. Today I ended up with a 7 tick stop (the range bar plus one tick above and below), a 7 tick PT on #1 and a 15 tick PT on #2 which was only hit once I think. But it was a very choppy time I tried this out in.

(I intended to go over to my 'real' charts and have a proper session for the journal but a) I was tired from the intense Renko and Range workout on 2 charts at once and b) the markets are just floor traders picking up money from saps so they can go out and buy emeralds for their girlfriends before bringing home a larger turkey to the wife and kids. At least that's what it looked like half an hour ago. Maybe it's hit 1200 in Gold whilst I am typing!

I know my posts tend to be too long. (The English schoolboy in me!) Sorry. (there I go again!)

But when I have done more work on the indicator, I shall share it and also show some pictures with signals.

I can't imagine trading a Range chart without the RBHL indicator, and it is VERY helpful with Renkos. Works with Range, Alt-Range, Renkos, SbS Renkos, Median Renkos. Very handy. 2.5 k!

Pictures: the one with the TRO indicator: the idea is buy when it crosses the High with the cream-colored hash, and sell when it crosses the low with the purple hash. Sell are drawn only after a buy signal has been triggered and confirmed with a close above them and also some sort of support-resistance criteria has been met in that there is new resistance. Once there is new resistance, the sell hash is active and any time there is a LL you sell. This is better in theory than practice because the hash marks don't change without close confirmation and in fact the method is to buy the HH's at the high and sell the LL's at the low as soon as you know which way you are going. But anyway. There is some merit to this approach and I intend to take a closer look at it over the next week or so especially in regards to developing a money-management training indicator for use with Range and Renko bars in particular. I think quite a few people will find it of interest.

The Ash Rat picture has a simpler indicator though in this choppy market it doesn't look appealing. When there are trends it is nice. Basically there are always two plots based on where the high or low will be. As soon as a close has formed and it's an up bar, the buy plot goes one tick above the high and the sell/stop plot goes to one tick below where the max low will be. Now with Renkos this works fine, but with range bars it doesn't keep track of the possible highs and lows intrabar like the RBHL indy does, but since I have it running, no problem. In any case, it is VERY simple when the chart is not all squashed up to show on the thread, and makes for very straightforward no-brainer type entries and exits. The art is choosing when to be on the buy side for a while and when to be on the sell side versus taking every single little swing every time which simply won't work. But as a training indicator it is simple, good, effective.

Hi CCLSYS,

Sorry could not find your original post for the Range Bar High Low indicator. I downloaded it several weeks ago and find it invaluable.

One of the setup options is Show Price Markers - True/False. But when set to True it does not display the price for the possible hi/lo of the range.

Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'.

Thanks,

Steve

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  #112 (permalink)
 
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 cory 
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cclsys View Post
Cory: am I right that your Rolling Pivots is creating a Rolling Vwap re-calculating every hour? I have a hard time reading others codes and also am a bit pressed right now making it even harder to drill down and try to understand what you have done.

it doesn't re-calculate Vmap, it takes a snap shot of a regular Vmap every 60m or 30m and use that value to plot the line for the rest of the period.

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  #113 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Jan 5 - afternoon.

Attaching chart with some commentary for those who might be interested in the skew. Also part of my own work in firming up 'trend' versus 'countertrend'.

Definition of positive skew:
vwap is above current PVP.
Definition of trend:
price is above rising vwap/below falling vwap.

So you can have a bull trend with a positive or negative skew.

In attached chart show where the skew changed to positive despite bear trend (around 8.53). Although it took until 10.00 ish for trend to change to bullish, and although there was one more thrust downwards, in fact there was no real trend move down, indeed a return to close to previous PVP area higher up around 1125.

Later on, because it was getting towards end of main day-session action, decided to play with buying the positive skew in a bear trend in anticipation of return to the mean. Had one stop-out but other entries worked fine.

I think the combination of trend and volume-based skew is a very intelligent and powerful one to be aware of and am very grateful to all the non-commercial contributors to NT forum and futures.io (formerly BMT) who have worked to make these sort of price levels visible to us. I really feel I have a good sense of what is going on. If I am 'wrong', that is information I am getting from the market which usually gives excellent new signal. Ability to anticipate next likely move to next likely level has been improving steadily. Am really enjoying reading the chart and price action and feeling very good about the work I have done in this regard the past 2-3 months, which essentially has synthesised a decade or two of sporadic experience into something my own and which I now understand. The volume indicators were a missing piece of the puzzle. The dynamic PVP allowed previously known but unable to review historically information to fall into place.

Meeting with consultant went very well. Am amazed someone with knowledge of the European financial sector just happens to have moved next door (indeed the only other person living on my dirt road year round). Not only knows the sector, but has been hired by several large fund managers to help streamline their organisation/operations because that is what he does. So he knows the owners/chiefs of these groups and they trust his judgment.

But Cape Breton is like that. Very strong local energy which is why I moved here. It's sort of ultra-modern and ultra-old-fashioned at the same time.

So a good day!

PS. Note on chart: on the far right text says" SR sell despite negative skew." Should have said: 'despite positive skew'.

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  #114 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
Sydney, NS
 
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Steve2222:

1. Embarrassing to read that ridiculously long post. But as have said elsewhere, despite being middle-aged am still an English schoolboy at heart when I hit the keyboard. Nothing to be done about it!
2. Re your query: "Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'."

Can't be done because these were formulated as text indicators for reasons to do with Ninja scripting (getting them to go off the chart as the bars change). So even though that option exists, it doesn't do anything. Now if you can find a way to plot it and have the previous plot disappear (I don't think you can!) then you can have the price value show in the axis.

I am not using Range Bars any more (at least right now) but I agree with you: it's invaluable! The default one that prints out 'range remaining: 3 ticks' is okay, but I much prefer seeing the actual price level visually both above and below the current High/Low of the forming bars.

There are a couple of other versions out, including one here at futures.io (formerly BMT), and maybe they can display the price in the axis the way you want.

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  #115 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
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cory View Post
it doesn't re-calculate Vmap, it takes a snap shot of a regular Vmap every 60m or 30m and use that value to plot the line for the rest of the period.

Yeah, I suspected that was it.

I am hoping someone will program in a rolling vwap. It exists on other platforms. I would really like a :

rolling 8 hour vwap + value areas + volume-at-price histogram. Then it can be used on all charts in all timeframes and the only thing you have to change is the rolling duration, i.e. 1 hour, 8 hour, 24 hours, 72 hours etc. But we don't have it.

Right now I am frustrated that you cannot have an indicator that can start the vwap and the PVP's etc. at the same time from which to build a decent skew indicator. But in the end it doesn't really matter. Can put them up separately and since I am a scalper can work fine with what I have already. But that said: the dynamic PVP is really a great leap forward for some reason.

I really like what you have done there with your rolling pivots although personally I would prefer a rolling calculation more in line with what I sketched above, i.e. it keeps rolling bar by bar. I don't have time to really take a good, long look at your one, but do intend to next month when things start opening up again time-wise.

I was delighted to see someone taking the FibBand indicator and turning it into something different to explore their own ideas. That is the sort of thing that can happen on a good forum. Yes, it's confusing in terms of which version works with what etc. and maybe I even ruined my own FibBand indicator importing your older version-based one etc. but I don't care. Pooling ideas and work is very enjoyable, healthy. Feels good. Am honoured that you contributed this to my journal thread. Have a lot of respect for your work. Thanks.

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  #116 (permalink)
 steve2222 
Auckland, New Zealand
 
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cclsys View Post
Steve2222:

1. Embarrassing to read that ridiculously long post. But as have said elsewhere, despite being middle-aged am still an English schoolboy at heart when I hit the keyboard. Nothing to be done about it!
2. Re your query: "Is it possible to add this to the RHS of the forming bar next to the 'dash' formed marking the possible hi/lo. I would find it more useful to quickly see the quoted price and not just the 'dash'."

Can't be done because these were formulated as text indicators for reasons to do with Ninja scripting (getting them to go off the chart as the bars change). So even though that option exists, it doesn't do anything. Now if you can find a way to plot it and have the previous plot disappear (I don't think you can!) then you can have the price value show in the axis.

I am not using Range Bars any more (at least right now) but I agree with you: it's invaluable! The default one that prints out 'range remaining: 3 ticks' is okay, but I much prefer seeing the actual price level visually both above and below the current High/Low of the forming bars.

There are a couple of other versions out, including one here at futures.io (formerly BMT), and maybe they can display the price in the axis the way you want.

Thanks CCLSYS,

No problem re the long posts - I find them informative. Understand what you are saying re printing in the axis, what about right next to the bar being formed ie in the chart body.

I did see the other indicator at NT (I now see it is on here as well) but it is producing incorrect results on at least RangeAlt charts.

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  #117 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
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Well, all you have to do then is find a way to print out the price value in text form versus a -- which is what I have. Try putting in the variable 'posshigh' instead of the - and see what happens. Might have to change the font size etc. Also don't put it in " " because that makes it a text thingy. I am not sure how to do this exactly but it definitely can be done and also you could have it displaced by 10-20 points to show towards the right of the chart.

If I find the time tonight will see if I can do it. But please understand: am not a good programmer. RBHL was written with generous help by others on NT forum. I just supplied the request; didn't do the heavy lifting!

Just took a quick look: do not know how to get a value Low[0]+ (Bars.Period.Value*TickSize) into text. But there is no question it can be done. Perhaps start a thread in Programmers area to see if some kind soul will solve this for you/us. Also NT forum will work too, then post it here.

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  #118 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
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Jan 6

Early am complicated by my having impulsively got into a fictional large account scale trade on the short side based on early negative skew. It looked like a quick upside spike after 8.30 report was going to head back down so I entered and then decided to ride it out to test this approach. Not for my own use right now but in general. It took an hour, was down $20,000 at some point with 104 contracts in play, and exited finally with $5,000 profit. At first distracted me from my 'official' work, then I realised I could trade my own small stuff at same time even though the arrows on the chart are all wrong. Since I was short, if I initiated a single contract buy, that was recorded as an exit of current scale-out short. I have marked my 'official' trades with text: 1,2,3 etc.

Basically I did a very good job of picking entries, trailing stops, picking viable targets. There were a couple of situations where I could have made more, no situations where I took a stop too early and am pleased with ability this morning to choose long or short side based on combination of skew and SR although because of initial scale trade did not take any trades in this journal model until well after I could/should have. Still, once I got going, it was a very good 30 mins with 5 winners and one 2-tick loser playing both long and short.

Trades (marked in text on chart):

#1: as with all trades before the narrow ellipse which shows where the 104 contract scale position exited finally, the arrows are reversed. It looks like a sell entry with a buy exit but in fact first it bought at beginning of bar and then sold at the top.

The thick yellow dash line is YH. It was retested on a pullback and held and had also worked as minor Resistance shortly before in the day-session so was 'in play' as an SR level. So took simple H1 buy entry with target at the SR-P level just above, hit to the tick. Fast winner.

#2 was the same again really, but it didn't move as I expected and took a 2 tick loss.

#3 (where again the yellow entry arrow is painted like an exit arrow) was a conservative or bold trade depending how you look at it: conservative in the sense that waited for clear HH with expectation of test of DH after, bold in sense that was exposed to larger stop, albeit as with most trades could move stop up to BE+ fairly quickly, and with this one it happened. Within about 30 secs was at BE+ if I remember correctly. Took modest PT after hesitation below the DH. If held, could have made more.

#4: first CT trend (arrow painted correctly since short). Why go CT here? Pattern-wise it is a very nicely formed L2. But also it is with negative skew based on relation between rising vwap and white PVP line. This had been in effect for a while, but here we had a situation where mkt had for first time failed to make HH (though this is arguable) but also the recent low was nowhere SR-wise so a second leg down looked highly likely. This too is arguable since it went down to previous long entry BO up price to the tick, so it was somewhere SR-wise. I just didn't feel that it had made a convincing low yet. Anyway it worked. Could have made more, but happy to take quick profits just above the new PVP.

#5: Simple pattern entry after narrow range Climax bar at the SR level with stop just below. Initial target was the SR-P level (at #4 entry price) which would have worked but bailed out early on hesitation to protect profits. Should have stayed in with BE+ stop. This was the only action that was questionable today imo.

#6 Short at the same SR-P price after mkt failed to go higher. Had tight 4 tick stop and initial tgt just at the point in the VolumePrice histo where there was support. Instant winner.

On all six trades the MAE was 3 ticks. It doesn't get better than that for my style of trading.

Net return: $393.60 = 7.9% in 30 minutes. 5 winners 1 2 tick loser. I'd say that was a good session. But again: it's in SIM so...

P/L since 11/20: $3445 = 68.9% of $5000 starting balance. Currently batting at 70% which is good. Avg P/L per trade 3.4 ticks.

I find that fascinating: avg profit 3.4 ticks = 68% in 6 weeks or so. This is why I am getting more aggressive at tightening stops. When I started the journal here I was more into loosening the stops and going for larger PT's. Now I am more into taking money when I can get it quickly and at same time tightening stops quickly to avoid having to make back 2-3 day's profits on a bad day. That is still going to happen, but I am hoping less often once again in REAL trading.






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  #119 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
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Jan 7.

Slightly late start but health is a little poorly past month or so and I am letting myself sleep until I awake. Last night slept 10 hours so must have needed it.

Looks like my Christmas prediction of a rally to the 1143 level either already happened - though 3 pts shy of that - or will turn out correct. In any case, there is a real battle under way which involves US$ of course.

Opened charts around 9.30 and there was a reasonably strong bull move underway after a sell-off in the early am so took a bullish stance.

Had order to buy at SR level at 1133.2 which was touched but not filled, meanwhile a pattern BO order above at 1134 which was hit. 3 ticks heat then up to the PT 2 ticks below old PVP (orange dot on chart) which also was touched not filled (TNF in SS notes), exited at trailing stop to ensure decent profits for the day, stop hit to the tick, then went up to PVP+1, so if had kept stop lower would have made 3% PT. Instead made 2% less commissions ($95.00). DONE.

Note: as soon as went up to PT zone, and after attached pic was snapped, mkt retraced down to 1130 level a few ticks above the dynamic PVP (white hash hard to see) down at bottom of chart. Mkt got ahead of itself.

Rules: 100%.





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  #120 (permalink)
 
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 cclsys 
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Jan 8 Another quick DONE day. After 8.30 report, market took off upwards (decline in payrolls).

#1: SR-P level trade with PT at next SRP up, stop to BE++ quickly to prevent early losses after 7 ticks heat, BE++ stop hit, then went straight up to PT and then to the SR + 1 tick before pulling back.
+2.

#2: However, after BE hit, got a narrow climax bar and put order to buy above there this time with PT at DPT + a little which was hit and filled within 10 secs of entry. I think my PT was lower, actually, but it took time for the order to be entered. (I have my SIM emulating time it takes in REAL trading). I think my actual PT was +5 to make DPT but got:
+7.

Net P/L for day: $81.2 = 1.6%. DONE.

Kept putting on some trades until 9.15 for practice and did quite well: up $700 with a couple of double entries but never more than $300 heat combined and a runner which got $500, then a couple of losers.

Fast market condition. Gold 'wants' to go back up towards $1200 but many others 'want' it to stay low. So a busy market these days even though I suspect much of the action is in CDS's and suchlike for which there are no available exchanges/data/information.

I continue to find the information from the dynamic PVP extremely helpful at focusing attention on key SR level at any given time; this provide the core context around which bar-based SR's and SR-P's are evaluated and am getting a much better feel for what a market is doing SR-wise. Not using any cycle or average-type indicators except for Vwap which is actually a straight statistic showing the level at which an equal number of trades have been above/below it. The other indies on the chart show volume (BetterVolume2 with some additions), speed (RPM) and time per bar (since I have tick charts). I rarely look at them although the speed alert keeps me aware of acceleration which doesn't show on the charts, although of course you can see the bars forming quickly during live trading.

That said, here's a common-sense observation about speed: the way I measure it is in Range in ticks per minute. So if a market is ticking away furiously within a one tick range - which does happen - that does not count as speed in terms of nr. of ticks per second/minute. What matters is the range. So when the RPM speed indicator shows acceleration, it means that the range is expanding rapidly which means it is far more likely that stops and PT's will be hit quickly. If you are 'right', then you have better chance of getting in and out rapidly when putting on scalp trade.

Also (and this is how I first configured scalp arrows with the RPM which I never have displayed to reduce clutter), AFTER the speed burst is over, often the floor traders correct the recent move to flush out recent weak entrants (scalpers, day traders etc.), so there are often pretty reliable CT bounces as soon as the speed condition ends and/or mkt stops at recognisable SR level. This is good for quick CT scalp (which I never do for many reasons, not least of which is that it seems to take between 5-10 seconds for orders to be processed) but also for a pullback re-entry. Floor boys take it back up to clean out the stops, often to an SR-P level which is also often when the speed condition began. Indeed, I look for SR-P's which began a speed level. They are often very good pullback zones for re-entry into trend.

That said, however, most of the time the speed condition indicates a climax, which is also why I put the scalp arrows in the opposite direction of the current speed-move. There is a climax of buyers/sellers jumping on board or being stopped out, then market pauses or reverses quickly. So this little RPM indicator is helpful in terms of helping to 'tell the story', or the rhythm, of what is going on.





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