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Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, Pivots, Murrey Math trading
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Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, Pivots, Murrey Math trading

  #1 (permalink)
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Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, Pivots, Murrey Math trading

I confess right from the start of this blog that math and I are sworn enemies.

A very large number of people are enfatic with their support of the fibonacci sequence (the golden ratio), Elliott Wave's, Pivot Points, Murrey Math, and value areas/points of control.

Did you know you can use the fibonacci sequence and golden spiral to predict or explain family tree relationships, petals on a flower, or seed heads in nature? Well I didn't, and as I began researching this topic I was amazed when I started reading Fibonacci Numbers in Nature.



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This image of a coneflower has mathematical qualities that can be explained. The shapes and spacing of the seeds, as many things in nature, align with the Fibonacci sequence.



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Elliott Wave theory says that the market has predictible waves (up or down) and that by counting them, you can predict their weight or significance, such as whether the next wave will be up or down, large or small. There are also A-B-C corrections, and in fact there are many specialized software packages designed specifically to trade these wave patterns (such as MTPredictor). I believe there might be some similiarities between Tom DeMark's approach and the Elliott Wave theory, although I confess to not have dug in and really examined that yet.



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With Pivot Points, the idea is that you can use past market data/price to predict where major areas of support and resistance will exist in the future. There is the pivot point (High + Close + Low) / 3, and then multiple resistance (R1, R2, R3) and support (S1, S2, S3) areas. You can define these by adding the High's, Low's or Pivots together and doing some math. Once a previous support area fails, it becomes the new resistance, and vice versa. You can find many indicators that will plot pivot points for you, and I've also found that MyPivots is a great resource for the Pivot Points trader.



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Murrey Math, created by T.H. Murrey, uses geometric shapes and fractals to predict important areas (price) in the market that may act as support or resistance. Murrey describes it by saying, "This is a perfect mathematical fractal trading system". The best resource I can suggest for adapting Murrey Math to your trading is this excellent and extremely popular thread on ForexFactory.

My take:
In general, I have avoided all of these mathematical analysis techniques like the plague. My primary reason is that some of them throw up so many different "important" numbers on your chart, that you can literally find a reason every 1 point on the ES that you should, or should not, be trading. This is not helpful to me. Yes, after a move I can throw up a Fib Extension or Retracement and see it was a 50% retracement. Or maybe it it was 61.8%. The thing is, on most charts there is such a small difference (in ticks) between the areas that you can find confluence with any number.

However, there is obviously a beneficial aspect to being able to identify key areas of support and resistance, whether they be based on pivots, fibs, etc. At best, you can trade with extra caution around these areas just like you might with the VAH/VAL/POC (value area high/low, point of control).

Lately I have been taking more interest in these numbers and math, particularly the Murrey Math ideas. You can find a Murrey Math indicator for NinjaTrader here. I seem to find this math the one I can relate to, and as such it is the one I am gravitating towards.

I also found a very interesting indicator called SwingTemp which counts the number of swing high/lows, and how many ticks was in each move. The indicator can also apply an automatic fib retracement chart at the end of each move, for NinjaTrader. I have yet to find a way to make this useful in my trading, however.

I would like to learn more about fibonacci's but am thinking that my toolset is lacking. I have not been able to find a really good NinjaTrader tool that can automatically apply retracements and extensions at the appropriate levels and project them to the future in a way that is useful.

Mike

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  #2 (permalink)
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I've created a new thread specifically about Murrey Math, check it out here:
https://futures.io/general-discussion/173-murrey-math.html?highlight=murrey+math

Mike

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  #3 (permalink)
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Hourly Pivots works fine on range bars ...

how to use (simple edition):

white dot line: entry line (is not adxvma is HPP)
green: exitshort()
red: exitlong()

only for short term trading or scalping

best regards
wh

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Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, Pivots, Murrey Math trading-hourly-pivots.png   Fibonacci, Elliott Waves, Pivots, Murrey Math trading-hourly-pivots-002.png  
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wh, what is "HPP"?

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hourly pivot point because on other charts is the white dot line the adxvma consolidation ...

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Dynamic Traders

Here's a video by Robert Miner, founder of Dynamic Traders Software. I think this is a week old or so, but for the Elliot Wave, Fibonacci Time and price folks, it's an interesting video.

He uses EW, fibs on Time and Price as well as a momentum indicator on multiple time frames. He is predicting a market top that is either already in, or will be this week ending 3/22. Video is about an hour.

Dynamic Traders - Free Video Report

D

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Re

I learned how to use fibs in a helpful way from a vendor.
I am new here and not sure I should mention the name.

It's rather simple though, you are looking for clusters of many fibs hitting at the same time.

Ex a fib retracement , fib extension , fib external retracement
This is like doing a fib projection for me at least
They mention a fib timing thing, but I have yet to ever see a way to time the market

Look for clusters of these from taking many swing, large and small and mark your charts and then at those levels look to enter a trade.


One issue is a market super trending without many swings ,
But that's not the norm

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