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Toby crabel book
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Toby crabel book

  #11 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Big Mike View Post
If the pdf is not free from the author then don't upload it here. You can post or exchange rapidshare links or whatever, that's fine, but no commercial uploads on our servers.

Mike

Yup , lets not break the rules . Thanks Mike .

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  #12 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Jeff Castille View Post
OK.....all you Crabel folks.......I have a dilemma.....to my knowledge oil and the indexes usually move in tandum.......if this is true then how can we have the indexes NR 4,5,7 for tomorrow and CL WS 4.5.7 ????

This does not seem right.

Any experience or insights here?

Thanks, Jeff

CL correlation experience - little , insight - here tis . I see narrow range bars or inside bars as a continuation opportunity . Its like a coil , the big guys are getting ready to keep the move going . If an inside bar on the daily breaks in the direction of a descernible trend it usually produces a move >= the last leg in that direction .

In Suris book he discusses a few approaches for NR and ORB . Ive PM'd him in the past and he has explained why ORB is important to consider before entry . It basically has to do with price breaking through the average bars range , each instrument has its own parameters for entry . He enters beyond the bar where the signal occurs letting price commit itself to a direction , Im guessing with a stop or stop limit order .

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  #13 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Jeff Castille View Post
OK.....all you Crabel folks.......I have a dilemma.....to my knowledge oil and the indexes usually move in tandum.......if this is true then how can we have the indexes NR 4,5,7 for tomorrow and CL WS 4.5.7 ????

This does not seem right.

Any experience or insights here?

Thanks, Jeff

Their correlation is quite complicated depending on both the economy & the dollar. The correlation is not minute-by-minute and sometimes even not day-by-day. They move in the same direction. I've often noticed CL leading ES around market turns. Also don't forget CL is very volatile around major news releases and crude oil inventories whereas ES is volatile around FOMC statements. So the two can deviate over shorter period of time but in general move together on higher timeframes.

also see in the chart below that the correlation is not 100%. Just cause they are now does not mean that will continue. It depends a lot on the dollar, interest rates in both the US & foreign countries, exchange rates, etc. Smart money is moving where the returns are highest and that equation is quite complex (I don't understand it myself).

the dotted line is OIL. the solid is S&P500.

PS: This is one reason I love trading ES, Euro, & Oil. They generally move together with one leading, which gives me a "heads-up" (even on the 5m timeframe). Often one will move and if I miss it I am ready for one of the others. If all 3 are trending it's very powerful. if only 1 is trending it can mean the trend is weak, etc. In order to track 3 markets I focus on a few high probability setups. And I'm considering dropping ES, too choppy compared to CL & 6E.

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Toby crabel book-cl-daily.png   Toby crabel book-cl-weekly.png  
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Market Wizard
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right now ES, Euro & Oil are moving in the same direction. but I believe soon it will go back to "normal". normal means oil down = ES up and visa versa. don't forget oil has a big impact on inflation. inflation means higher interest rates which is killer # 1 for the stock market (ES). the only reason they are moving the same way now is because we're in this big mess (economy). we need a stronger economy and a higher oil price means the economy is picking up. more evidence of a steady growth and oil over 100 dollars is going to be a problem again...

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