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Simple estimation trading
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Simple estimation trading

  #21 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Review exercise -for trendlines and S/R

26 June 2011

Review exercise -for trendlines and S/R

Print out the chart for the ES of 5 may 2011.
1. Draw your trendlines on it in one color .e.g. blue and then you S/R on it in another color e.g. red.
2. Write out your notes of what you see.
3. Then write out your 'conclusion' - that is if someone said to you: "Forget the mumbo-jumbo of the graph - tell me what will happen."

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  #22 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Gann Speed lines - Gann Fan

Gann Speed lines

Gann speed lines are the speed or velocity of the price movement.
If a stock rises 1 pt for each 1 day that is a 1 X 1 speed.
If a stock rises 2 pt for each 1 day that is a 2 X 1 speed.
(well that is the way I think of it. Gann and NT would label it 1 x 2 speed -but I'm going to use speeds greater than 1 x 1, or the 45% line as ratios greater than 1.0)

If a stock rises 3 pt for each 1 day that is a 3 X 1 speed.
If a stock rises 1 pt for each 2 day that is a 1 X 2 speed.

Gann focused on 1 x 1, 1 x 2 and 2 x 1, 1 x 4 and 4 x 1, and lastly 1 x 8 and 8 x 1.

These all together equal a gann fan.

Using NT you click on a low (or high) do a Cntl F9 (or drawing tools and select) and you get a gann fan. Then you click on the gann fann, right click and the properties come up and you can set the speed of the 1 x 1 and the direction (up right, down right, etc).

Gann was a deeply religious man and often quoted the Bible which he feel was the greatest book ever written and that once you have read it 3 times (metaphysical importance to 3) that you would also believe that.

All things that have been shall be and nothing new is under the sun.

Gann believed that there was Divine Order to the universe and spent his life searching for it (accumulating 55 million dollars along the way).

He believed time and price we linked - even that time = price.

The 1 x 1 line is a line of time = price ("space").

------
I have covered some simple estimation techniques for price (take a move divide it into the vibration of 2 or 3 and mark these levels as possible S/R levels. That gives you the horizontal lines on your graph and then you have the regular S/R levels of previous highs and lows.

Gann also had rules for time S/R that is time turn points - though I won't cover those.
(Essentially use 360 and divide into the key numbers - e.g. 360 days / 8 = 45 days giving you a possible turn at 45 days with an orb of 2 days. As there are 365 days in a year that gives you the orb 365.25/8 = 45.65 days.)

-----back to speed lines ----

A +1 x 1 is a 45% line upwards sloping form the bottom left to the top right.

Gann speed lines connect time and price.
With your S/r levels the intersection of the best fitting gann line with the horizontal lines of the SR gives you the the next high (or low).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #23 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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02 July 2011

Prooving out the Gann Fan

Using the low of 1 July 2010 (1010) we apply a gann fann of 1 pt per day to the SPX index
The 2 x1 finds a high and the 1 x1 a low.
Gann1.jpg
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On Feb 18, 2011 some 7 months later the 2 x 1 speed line finds the high, 1344.
Where is our horizontal line (the SR) to know when the high is reached?
Gann2.jpg

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Surprise, surprise ! There it is at the 25% level!! (=1/4)
The speed line is 2 x 1 or in Gann lingo 1 x 2.
1 divided by 2 is 1/2 and divide by 2 again is 1/4!!
gann3.jpg
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Next we look at the low the 1 x 1 line found.
It is on June 16 2011 at 1258.
Where is 1258 in our SR levels?
gann4.jpg
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Well 1265 is our SR of 2/3 (66.7%) of the big drop, so close - but we can do better.
gann5.jpg
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The move from 1010 to 1370 is 360 pts.
We try one eights on this - nada
And then one sixths - pretty good (1250 versus 1258)

Gann had another rule - tops find bottoms (and bottoms find tops)
Using tenths of the top, 1370 we get 1260 --> very very close to 1258.

So we have
1265
1250
and
1258

---> if you can't find the low with that cluster of estimates
AND the speed line
...well good night sweet Charlotte!
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-------
Ok sports fans - that concludes my commitment I made to you at the beginning of June.
This post was over 4 hrs in the making.

Perhaps someone else - in later years will find the thread of value.

"It is in the giving and not the receiving that the value is created."
-Robert Neils

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