Simple estimation trading - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Simple estimation trading
Updated: Views / Replies:3,531 / 22
Created: by aquarian1 Attachments:35

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 35  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Simple estimation trading

  #11 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Direction of breakout from the wedge

Hi David,

I too would tend to favor the downside breakout, but here is what Markstein writes:


Quoting 
Probable Breakout Direction
Some Technicians insist that an ascending Triangle is more likely to break out on the upside than otherwise, and that a descending Triangle gives advance notice that its probable eventual breakout will be toward the bottom of the chart, with a symmetrical triangle being a 50-50 proposition. This reasoning is nice as long as it works, but many years of observing and studying bar chart Triangles have convinced me that the neat reasoning is as likely not to work as it is to prove valid. You'll do better to consider the direction of breakout of any triangle as uncertain until it happens.

David L Markstein
How to Chart Your Way to Stock Market Profits
pg 67.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #12 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Here are a few pages from Markstein's book.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Attached Files
Register to download File Type: doc Kinds of Triangles.doc (32.5 KB, 22 views)
Reply With Quote
 
  #13 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Something exciting happening


June 15, 2011

Something exciting happening!!!

I mentioned that the something big is underway with the TSX
The chart below should speak volumes!! - especially when I told you the Canadian market is not allowed to be legally manipulated as the USA market is.

So China needed to raise rates
Trouble with the PIIGS of the Eurozone
No jobs in the USA
ANd NOW
BOTH the TSX and oil have broken down!!

Time for you to make some money David!! As the only student of this course, you know the CL wedge was due to break and it has. Patterns rule!!
---

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #14 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Confirmation

June 15, 2011

Confirmation

When a pattern breaks you look for confirmation.
Some people use a certain amount (in CL's case below 95.18 low) and some people use time, wait 2 or 3 days.

Often it will bounce back up into the pattern giving a second chance to sell.

A bounce tomorrow could give a sell at 95.90 (the 1/16 on June) or 95.78 low of 12 May, or 95.55 low of May 17. Watch the action tomorrow. I'm expecting a bounce up at 9am CT when the Philadelphia Fed report comes out. Wait for it to raise and fail.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


More cautious investors could wait til after Friday's close.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #15 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Lesson 3 Trendlines and telescoping in -Part 2

Lesson 3 Trendlines and telescoping in -Part 2

19 June, 2011

We started with the very long term and now we telescope in, zooming into the last 5 yrs.

First notice the high slightly above 15,000 in mid 2008.
Then we have a drop to about 7,400 in early 2009.
So about -7,600 in 8-8months.

Next is a rise slower than the drop in a curve that goes up to about 12,200 (about April 2010) and drops back to about 11,050 (about end of may 2010). This is wave1 (I speak of waves in terms of an up and down move to complete a wave, which for 'elliots' is 2 waves).

Joining the low of early 09 to mid 2010 are the 2 points on which the red trend line is drawn. This line touches again about 1 and 1/2 months later and then its extension is cut about May this year, around the 13,300 level.

So now we have the second wave.


Quoting 
Now the key thing to see from this graph is that the recovery did not get back to the 15,100 old high, but rather stopped at about 14,200. This is VERY IMPORTANT, VERY IMPORTANT.

The 15,000 level marks a double top that is separate by almost exactly 5 years. (We haven't spoken of timing but 10yrs, and 1/2 of that 5 years are very important.) Right from the start of the the 'recovery' of money/debt-printing, the key question was is this a recovery or a bear market bounce.

For a recovery we would have had 3 segments (waves) with the last pushing through the double-top at 15,100 . That is why only two segments and not a third is so vital to answering this question. Now we could have had a third segment (wave) and as this second wave is forming we are watching like a hawk to see where it stops.

If it had stopped at the upward sloping trendline of 2009 AND because 14,100 is > 5 eights (or for Fib lovers 0.618) and greater than 3/4 (or for Fib lovers 0.76), odds were it should go the whole distance to 15,100. AND getting above 15,100 is breaking a double top separated by a key 5 year time frame.

THIS IS WHY THE QUESTION IS SO IMPORTANT.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

(40 mins)

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #16 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

indicator only quizz

For a little fun I have included 4 charts from today
8:30, 10:30, 12:30 and 14:30

What you do is for each chart decide if you would take action opening or closing the trade

When you have gone through all four then look to see how well you would have done!

jour5a
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5307/5854369623_a62f2a149e_z.jpg
jour5b
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2602/5854369627_f1c070f303_z.jpg
jour5c
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5160/5854369635_62fe3581d6_z.jpg
jour5d
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5146/5854369641_4fe101c0ae_z.jpg

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #17 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

the answer

jour5e
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5309/5855036770_c5a669fb78_z.jpg

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #18 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

TSX

The TSX has broken down below the brown line (13,200 area) and tried to move back up into the formation but could only touch the lower edge. This is common that the security moves back up to the bottom edge (in this case shown by a broken triple low) and then runs out of steam and starts its downmove in earnest. As the TSX does not have the pump priming of the SPX you get a clearer picture of what is happening (- and most likely what will follow for the SPX though it can be quite a while later)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Lesson 4 Trendlines and telescoping in -Part 3

24 June, 2011

Lesson Trendlines and telescoping in -Part 3

Now we zoom into the last 12 months, we find the trendline broken and the last support broken.
We measure the length of the last move and see how far it would be to the support (12,400).
Breaking down below 12,800 a again - which looks like it should in the next few days, gives us a 400 point drop as an initial target.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Remember you are looking for HIGHS for support - not lows.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I have included an example of estimating by showing the measurement from support (link a neckline in a head an shoulders) to the low and shown that this worked out very closely. Subtract the 658 form the 13,430 to get the estimate = 12,722. Actual =12,763 (dif 41pts -nothing really.)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


For data see:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPTSE&a=0&b=3&c=2000&d=5&e=24&f=2011&g=d&z=66&y=0

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Lesson 5 - Trendlines on indicators


25 June, 2011

Lesson 5 - Trendlines on indicators
Using a 60 min chart we draw trendlines upon indicators and then look to price action for a connection.

Price based indicators usually lagging price action as they are computed on price action. However, the have the benefit of looking at price action from another perspective and can sometimes highlight changes of price trend for us.
price.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



We can draw trendlines upon indicators with the same procedure as price:
For downtrendlines start at the peak (P) and connect to the next lower high (1), draw your line and extend. When a subsequent lower high (2) has formed, connect points (1) to (2) and extend. keep repeating the procedure as long as you have lower highs and lower lows.

(For uptrend vice-versa).

Here I show a 60 min chart of the ES that has several indicators below it.
less.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I have shown this without knowing what I might find to let you see how the process of discovery (or not) plays out. I started at the bottom where the Stocastic indicator (STO) is.
lesa.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



As I have copied the chart into my spreadsheet to draw on I can't see the price action - it is "upstairs". This is what I what as I don't want to back fit what happened (ie price action) onto my indicator review.
In the first box we are looking at the STO. I drew a rectangle around a basing area - so a potential buy area. By using the rectangle within the spreadsheet I can extend the vertical lines upward to look at the next indicator "upstairs" within the same time area (the red rectangle).
sat1.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



I draw my trendlines on the next indicator - in this case I have shown the momentum indicator (MOM). Then I look at the price action to see "what really happened". From this procedure you can discover new relationship to help you predict price movement.
Sat1B.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Here are the lines on the MOM:
Line 1 is drawn from the peak at about 22.0 connecting the lower highs of 19, 16 and extended.
Line 2 (red box 2) starts the last touch on line one (black box 1) and connects to the next lower high (black box 2) and is extended.
lesb.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Line 3 is drawn along the MOM as it falls off dramatically.
line3.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Conclusions:
1. When the MOM steepens dramatically the price low is approaching.
2. When the MOM forms a low the price low will be in the next hour or so.
conclus.jpg
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



You would redo this with shorter timeframes once you got close to the end of the steep line 3 (say 15 min chart).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Simple estimation trading

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
SMA Simple Trading websouth NinjaTrader 5 July 14th, 2012 09:56 AM
Simple Forex Swing trading vroomy The Elite Circle 5 July 6th, 2011 10:15 AM
Qualitative Quantitative Estimation slogan61 NinjaTrader Programming 3 June 20th, 2011 06:47 PM
FAQ for Simple estimation techniques aquarian1 Traders Hideout 3 June 8th, 2011 11:11 PM
Simple Trading Plan wh Psychology and Money Management 10 September 6th, 2009 01:32 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:16 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.210.170