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The Italian Job
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Created: by redratsal Attachments:31

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The Italian Job

  #581 (permalink)
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redratsal, would you mind telling me your settings for the FibonacciLines?

Also, hows the trend following method coming along? Haven't seen any posts on it recently

Cheers

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  #582 (permalink)
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PeterOhlson View Post
redratsal, would you mind telling me your settings for the FibonacciLines?

Also, hows the trend following method coming along? Haven't seen any posts on it recently

Cheers

If you refer to the Fibonaccizones by Fat Tails these are my settings for 6/12 range charts and 60 min charts:

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With concern to the trend following strategy, I have honestly a hard time to set my mind, as my chart reading is used to counter trends, it is more difficult for me to analyze 2 methods at the same time. Nevertheless I am currently making some tests based on vwap and MTF ema's, I decided to not publish the results for 2 reasons:
1) Data results are not consistent yet
2) Don't want to mix things with the Italian Job method

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  #583 (permalink)
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YM 2 contracts, target vwap +260$

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  #584 (permalink)
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A quick note to inform that I am not posting anymore on a daily basis, as mentioned at the beginning of the thread, the 60 days trades have passed and all the topics have been covered. This thread started as a teaching method but it soon became a realtime journal for my trades, it is now much more usefull for myself. futures.io (formerly BMT) is a perfect instrument and place for such kind of activity, I encourage everyone to follow with her/his personal realtime journal.

I will post again but occasionally to cover new aspects and keep my journal updated.

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  #585 (permalink)
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Today's Ecofin's meeting is really special, it is not a good day for countertrend trades, it is on days like this that you can blow your account with this method, hopefully this scenario doesn't happen often.

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  #586 (permalink)
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Trend Following

I am currently testing a trend following method based on the MultiTimeFrame (visualema https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/939-download.html) indicators developed by Fat Tails. The method is based with 3 emas:

1) 5 min 20 periods (red)
2) 15 min 20 periods (white)
3) 30 min 20 periods (green)

The setup is based on a specific crossing of the three emas, long when the hungarian flag is set (red,white,green) and short when the italian flag is set (green,white,red). Thinking the setup in terms of flags is easier for my mind to visualize the correct plot.

This is just an entry setup, the management of the trade as the targets and stops must be set manually according to PA and S/R.

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As usual there are many false signals, during chop times, and stops must be wide enough to hold traps. I feel confortable with this system, altough my mind is setup for countertrades and it is always difficult to go in the opposite direction.

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  #587 (permalink)
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Camarilla Pivots

Based on the post #30 by perryg https://futures.io/elite-circle/15054-camarilla-pivots-level-5-a-3.html#post173021 and the new release of Fat Tails's session pivotsV38 Downloads - NinjaTrader 7 Indicators - Big Mike's Trading Forum, I decided to backtest the cross above/under of Ema 13 and Ema 20 to see if the Camarilla Pivots R/S5 and R/S4 are hit during the Euro and US sessions. As I don't fully trust NT backtest results, I double checked manually the output of the test. The test was made with an ES 120 minutes chart and is based under 2 conditions:

1) After Ema13(lime) Crossabove Ema20(red), during Euro and US Session, check if R4 and R5 are hit
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2) After Ema13(lime) Crossbelow Ema20(red), during Euro and US Session, check if S4 and S5 are hit
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The test is over 23 months Jan2010-Dec2011 and these are the results:

Condition 1) was met 77 times:
-R5 was hit 29%
-R4 was hit 55% (R4+R5 = 84%)
-Failed to hit R4 16%

Condition 2) was met 72 times:
-S5 was hit 52%
-S4 was hit 38% (S4+S5=90%)
-Failed to hit S4 10%

I started this test as I noticed that yesterday ES retraced after hitting the Camarilla S5
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.
Based on the results of the test there is enough material to go in both direction, trend following or countertrend. This is the starting point, everything must be mixed according to PA and considering the Risk Reward over the positions of the Camarilla Pivots related to the position of the emas' crossing.

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  #588 (permalink)
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Camarilla

We have a Cross ema13 over ema20, possible target T1 or T2. A good entry could be on the retracement over vwap

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  #589 (permalink)
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Camarilla R4

Entered on Vwap target on R4, profit 5 points/contract

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Last edited by redratsal; December 16th, 2011 at 12:33 PM.
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Weekly vwap


The weekly vwap showed a strong support on it's 2nd standard deviation, 1198 might be an iteresting level for next week.

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