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The Italian Job
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Created: by redratsal Attachments:31

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The Italian Job

  #501 (permalink)
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6E short 1 contract, target S and Vwap +233

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  #502 (permalink)
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Ichimoku

6E short 2 contracts, target on S +529$

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same instrument and data but Ichimoku tick 377 chart, notice how graphically the DT is much clear, divergence, Tenkasen cross price and Kijunsen, price below cloud indicating a price reversal from vwap 2SD. That is where I doubled my contracts.

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  #503 (permalink)
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CL short 3 contracts, target on S +597$

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  #504 (permalink)
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I did a 20/20 hindsight visual assesment of this method for the CL UK session for the past month, and there seems to be a very impressive win rate. I counted only one complete loss, which occured on a really high volatility day. I actually have a friend who does a very similar approach (martingaling on price extremes in Forex & ETFs) and he seems to be doing good for himself. I know martingaling is frowned upon amongst most traders, but if it's done in combination with other kinds of analysis I dont see why it shouldnt work. That being said I'll definitely be following this thread further.

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  #505 (permalink)
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PeterOhlson View Post
I did a 20/20 hindsight visual assesment of this method for the CL UK session for the past month, and there seems to be a very impressive win rate. I counted only one complete loss, which occured on a really high volatility day. I actually have a friend who does a very similar approach (martingaling on price extremes in Forex & ETFs) and he seems to be doing good for himself. I know martingaling is frowned upon amongst most traders, but if it's done in combination with other kinds of analysis I dont see why it shouldnt work. That being said I'll definitely be following this thread further.


Thanks for your kind comment, it is true, the strat, during the UK session has a very high win rate but it can be a double edged sword when the market is strongly running against you and you keep adding contracts pretending to turn a loss into profit until you realize that you were wrong and you lost a fortune (done that with real money). Once you have set your maximum stop loss do not move it further away, accept beeing wrong, you will recover very fast, instead of insisting on a single trade that could screw your cumulated profits. Bear also in mind that if you are in the trade for too long (more than 3 hours) and the market hasen't reversed in the direction of the trade as you would like, try to close it asap, limit the loss and turn the page.


Last edited by redratsal; October 12th, 2011 at 06:23 PM.
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  #506 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
Thanks for your kind comment, it is true, the strat, during the UK session has a very high win rate but it can be a double edged sword when the market is strongly running against you and you keep adding contracts pretending to turn a loss into profit until you realize that you were wrong and you lost a fortune (done that with real money). Once you have set your maximum stop loss do not move it further away, accept beeing wrong, you will recover very fast, instead of insisting on a single trade that could screw your cumulated profits. Bear also in mind that if you are in the trade for too long (more than 3 hours) and the market hasen't reversed in the direction of the trade as you would like, try to close it asap, limit the loss and turn the page.

I did an assesment of the US session as well and even there the win rate is very high, I'm very impressed! But as you say, it can be a double edged sword. I believe a high win rate can make you blind to losses. When a loss finally happens, you think it's normal so you keep adding. Then you end up wiping out your account. So I agree, use maximum stop losses, and I like the 3 hour rule as well, I will keep that in mind!

That being said, I actually counted zero losses in the US session, if we look away from areas like these. This collapse pattern occured four times in total. Notice how price collapses beyond the second SD and never recovers. If you keep adding in an area like that, you will be wiped out real quick. Luckily these patterns are easy to recognize. Once you see it just hit the close button and go to the bar, spend time with your family, do whatever you want, just don't trade it!

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  #507 (permalink)
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6E Short 1 contract, target on Vwap +208$

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  #508 (permalink)
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CL short 2 contracts, target on S +222$

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  #509 (permalink)
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CL long 1 contract, target R +295$

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  #510 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
Bear also in mind that if you are in the trade for too long (more than 3 hours) and the market hasen't reversed in the direction of the trade as you would like, try to close it asap, limit the loss and turn the page.

6E 3 contracts long, closed for a break even due to time limit also because of this # 507 https://futures.io/forex-currency-trading/13614-eurusd-6e-euro-eur-usd-futures-contract-euro-51.html#post161421

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