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The Italian Job
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Created: by redratsal Attachments:31

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The Italian Job

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
Milan (I)
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: Kinetick
Favorite Futures: FDAX,6E,CL,YM,NQ,ES
 
redratsal's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,217 given, 2,067 received

As John Bollinger thaught us, 6E got out of the squeeze and price is running on the upper band with a nice expantion, not wise to trade countertrends under these circumstances (same applies for CL), at least during the UK session, we'll see what the US have to say about it.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
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redratsal,

I must admit your strategy is different than a majority of the systems we see on futures.io (formerly BMT) where most systems try to surf with the trend. I would be afraid to have large drawdowns but again this is my first impression as i never used such a responsive system. Basically, you are using a progression to win each battle. I have always heard that such a system is dangerous but i suppose it depends on the pilot. Good job.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
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Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 1,217 given, 2,067 received



trendisyourfriend View Post
redratsal,

I must admit your strategy is different than a majority of the systems we see on futures.io (formerly BMT) where most systems try to surf with the trend. I would be afraid to have large drawdowns but again this is my first impression as i never used such a responsive system. Basically, you are using a progression to win each battle. I have always heard that such a system is dangerous but i suppose it depends on the pilot. Good job.

Thank you TIYF I really appreciate your comments, you can adapt the strategy to trend following or Break Outs it is just a question of PA, from my point of view the management of the trade is 10 times more important than the entry point. I don't want to mix up things but I will discuss variations of the theme later.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
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This is a trade on CL with 1 contract + 316 USD

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  #45 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
Thank you TIYF I really appreciate your comments, you can adapt the strategy to trend following or Break Outs it is just a question of PA, from my point of view the management of the trade is 10 times more important than the entry point. I don't want to mix up things but I will discuss variations of the theme later.

You are right about the management part unless you use a fixed target and stop but in this latter case you would need to be more accurate with the entry. When you start a new campaing so to speak against the trend and you open new positions as the trend develops, at which point would you consider throwing in the towel if the trend gets stronger. Can you identify the signs that would help you identify early on the potential of a big failure ?

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  #46 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
You are right about the management part unless you use a fixed target and stop but in this latter case you would need to be more accurate with the entry. When you start a new campaing so to speak against the trend and you open new positions as the trend develops, at which point would you consider throwing in the towel if the trend gets stronger. Can you identify the signs that would help you identify early on the potential of a big failure ?


Post #39, partially answers the issue, time and PA are the factors, also if no retracements and increasing LL's and
LH's are showing up, in the specific case it was UK session which has a different volatility if compared to US. There is also a reverse possibility, I look forward to illustrate one. I am not so scientific and I don't keep too many statistics, I try to understand and interprete the market in real time and not ex post. I am sure there will be an example, I will be glad to come back on it.

I am very strict with my management stop, at last I will throw the towel when I reached it. It is very easy getting used with winning trades and not accepting a loss. Since I started this thread I haven't had a loosing trade and my results are not bad so far, still I keep in mind that one trade could wipe out all my cumulated profits.

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  #47 (permalink)
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That was my last trade of the day, CL +678 USD

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  #48 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,653 since Oct 2010
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Doji's Patterns

As the Better Volume #38, Pattern's on candles can help locate a change of direction, they are not always reliable, I use the generated patterns as a second thought to reinforce my assumptions on price action or to anticipate its moves.

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  #49 (permalink)
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A little more about me

I realize my method is unconventional and might raise some questions; many points, like scaling in or going against the trend, are basic “no go” rules that we all read about. Quite often, I have been a contrarian and I never took for granted what I was told not to do. Just because an issue had a bad impact on somebody’s trading doesn’t mean it can’t be exploited.

Trading somebody’s else method is very difficult and aleatory, once you think you managed it you get rejected by the market and need to start all over again. Old trading books and manuals are still true today, yet there is much to be explored about trading. I like to get and test it my way and I never take something as gospel , wheter this comes from a guru or an amatorial trader. I’ll never stop learning, places like futures.io (formerly BMT) help me to enrich my know how and keep me updated but as far as my trading is concerned, the final word is always mine.

It is a long and winding road, besides the Challenge, which is the really funny part, the Italian job is an experiment and wants to explore something unconventional and definitely different, I think this is part of the spirit Mike intended for BM Challenge II.

Back to trading....

This is my first trade of the Day +225 USD

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  #50 (permalink)
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This 2 contracts trade is over 6E, the PA has been bouncing from the upper Vwap 2sd and lower one, in the 60 min chart PA bounced from the Support at 1.4630 without touching it, below that line a dangerous jump of 130 pips (in this case I would have reconsidered my targets). The reversal up bar on the 5 min chart, after I entered the 1 contract, anticipated the up leg. Target below the next R (6 Range Chart) +325 USD
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